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Re: Right to bear arms [Re: ]
    #3363354 -

i've been looking through some state-by-state statistics on violent crime available at this site:

http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/

most states adopted liberalized concealed carry laws in the late 80's and early 90's. these states experienced a significant drop in violent crime during the 90's, but the 4 states which do not allow concealed carry also experienced a drop in violent crime. it appears as though the drop was not as significant as in the CCW states, but the differences aren't wide enough as to be conclusive. it doesn't appear certain that liberalized concealed carry laws either increase or decrease the violent crime rate. i would argue that this should mean that those who wish to arm themselves, posing little if any threat to public safety in doing so, should be allowed to.

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Re: Right to bear arms [Re: ]
    #3363685 -

Now, after several years in which the nation as a whole has enjoyed a declining crime rate, there is direct evidence that Lott's conclusions are wrong. A 1999 analysis of crime statistics conducted by The Brady Center to Prevent Gun Violence (formerly the Center to Prevent Handgun Violence) demonstrates that allowing people to carry concealed handguns does not mean less crime. The Center found that, as a group, states that rely on permissive concealed weapons laws as a crime fighting strategy had a significantly smaller drop in crime than states which looked to other means to combat crime rather than make it easier to obtain a concealed weapons permit.

In the 29 states that have lax CCW laws (where law enforcement must issue CCW licenses to almost all applicants), the crime rate fell 2.1%, from 5397.0 to 5285.1 crimes per 100,000 population from 1996 to 1997. During the same time period, in the 21 states and the District of Columbia with strict carry laws or which don't allow the carrying of concealed weapons at all, the crime rate fell 4.4%, from 4810.5 to 4599.9 crimes per 100,000 population. The decline in the crime rate of strict licensing and no-carry states was 2.1 times that of states with lax CCW systems, indicating that there are more effective ways to fight crime than to encourage more people to carry guns.

Furthermore, according to the CPHV analysis, violent crime actually rose in 12 of 29 states (41%) which liberalized their CCW laws over the five years beginning in 1992, compared to a similar rise in violent crime in only 4 of 22 states (18%) which did not change their CCW laws. The disparity in the decline is even more obvious for rates of gun violence. From 1992 to 1997 (the last five years for which data exists), the violent crime rate in the strict and no-issue states fell 24.8% while the violent crime rate for states with liberal CCW laws dropped 11.4%. Nationally the violent crime rate fell 19.4%.

If allowing more people to carry handguns is supposed to be such an effective crime fighting strategy, why did the crime rate go up in so many "shall issue" states - particularly when compared to states that employed other strategies to fight crime? The simple answer: allowing thousands of ill-trained citizens to carry guns everywhere they go has no positive effect on the crime rate. Research now substantiates what common sense has always argued: in a society riddled with gun-related crime, reducing the opportunities where guns can be used will actually reduce the rate of gun violence.

http://www.bradycampaign.org/facts/research/?page=lott_mglc&menu=pro


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Don't worry, B. Caapi

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Re: Right to bear arms [Re: Xlea321]
    #3363713 -

In the 29 states that have lax CCW laws (where law enforcement must issue CCW licenses to almost all applicants), the crime rate fell 2.1%, from 5397.0 to 5285.1 crimes per 100,000 population from 1996 to 1997. During the same time period, in the 21 states and the District of Columbia with strict carry laws or which don't allow the carrying of concealed weapons at all, the crime rate fell 4.4%, from 4810.5 to 4599.9 crimes per 100,000 population. The decline in the crime rate of strict licensing and no-carry states was 2.1 times that of states with lax CCW systems, indicating that there are more effective ways to fight crime than to encourage more people to carry guns.

this is pretty weak. they take a single year out of a whole decade during which there is only a 2.3% difference in the rate of the drop.

Furthermore, according to the CPHV analysis, violent crime actually rose in 12 of 29 states (41%) which liberalized their CCW laws over the five years beginning in 1992, compared to a similar rise in violent crime in only 4 of 22 states (18%) which did not change their CCW laws.

it would be nice if they cited a source for their figures. this is different from what i've read.

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Re: Right to bear arms [Re: Xlea321]
    #3363716 -

Can you explain the decreasing crime rate in the U.S., while some gun laws are becoming more lax, while in Britain the crime rate is increasing as more laws against self defense are put in place and enforced?


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"In religion and politics people's beliefs and convictions are in almost every case gotten at second-hand, and without examination."
-- Mark Twain

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Re: Right to bear arms [Re: ]
    #3363808 -

maine became a shall-issue state in 1985. since then its violent crime rate fell from 167 to 109 in 2000.

florida became a shall-issue state in 1987. since then its violent crime rate fell from 1,024 to 812 in 2000.

georgia became a shall-issue state in 1989. since then its violent crime rate fell from 735 to 505 in 2000.

it went down in idaho, up in PA, up in WV, down in VA, down in MS, down in OR, up in MT, down in AK, down in AZ, down in TN, up in WY, down in AR, down in KY, down in NV, down in NC, down in OK, down in SC, down in TX, and down in UT.

i can see no corellation between CCW policy and crime rate. one thing that is certain is that CCW holders themselves are less likely to commit crimes than non-CCW holders.

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