HoodedBingling said:

50 is a good medium term bet. I think its gonna see over 100k again. In my last trip I had the intuitive knowledge though that BTC is going to zero.
Although the time line is something that nobody can predict, I can also say people are gonna be in massive disbelief when it happens. Mark my words.

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tomnl said:

Now, I ain't tryna freak anyone too much.  But I did just see this weekly H&S lookin' thing pop into my view, and its measured move target lines up with the lower USTL at around ~$35,000.

   


Sure hope it won't happen, but won't be too terribly surprised if it does. This is crypto, afterall...

Always gotta keep an eye toward max pain downside.

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Remember when I posted this?  Making a lower low on the weekly.

   

Quote:

Trump financial disclosure report.

He extracted 1.1 BILLION from crypto, divided like this:

> $635.1M → TRUMP memecoin
> $236.3M → WLFI token sales
> $196.9M → Sale of ownership interests in the USD1 stablecoin venture
> $65.6M → Sale of part of Trump's stake in World Liberty Financial
> $6.0M → Melania Trump's NFT sales and collectibles business
> $1.82M → Ethereum validator (staking) rewards

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Quote:

Morning, everyone.

I want to start off by apologizing that the Webinar didn’t get sent out yesterday. There was a problem with the recording and we have fixed it. I will be getting that out shortly after I press send. 

Six weeks of nothing, then eight percent in an hour. Bitcoin is at $71,795 as I write this, up 3.6% on the day and around 11% over 24 hours, after touching $72,344 in European trade. The entire short side of this market has been dismantled. If you were bearish and levered into yesterday, it cost you real money. Let's walk through how it happened, because the sequence matters.

Start with the bond market, not the crypto market. Wednesday morning Treasury said it will at least double the size of its liquidity support buybacks for 10-year through 30-year paper, lifting the cap from $2 billion per operation to at least $4 billion, effective September 9. That landed three days after the 30-year printed 5.337%, its highest since 2007. Yields cratered on the announcement. The long bond fell about nine basis points to 5.19%, the dollar sank to a three-month low, and gold ran to its best level since early June.

I told you on the webinar this was a rally on the message. Two billion extra dollars in a thirty trillion dollar market is a rounding error. What got bought was the signal that Treasury shows up when the long end gets ugly.

Bitcoin had been boxed between roughly $62,000 and $66,900 since July 8. Volatility ground down to multi-year lows inside that box, and that is exactly the condition that stacks a wall of resting short liquidation levels just above price. There was a thick band of them between $65,000 and $67,000. I flagged $67.5K as the nearest upside squeeze zone on the webinar deck. Falling yields were enough to push price into that wall. Once it cracked, forced buying did the rest.

Trump's White House event came hours later, after most of the move was already banked. He hosted Armstrong from Coinbase, Garlinghouse from Ripple and Tenev from Robinhood, plus Kraken, Gemini, Chainlink, Nasdaq and ICE, with SEC Chair Atkins and CFTC Chair Selig sitting in. He called on Congress to pass a fair version of the CLARITY Act, pointed at the SEC when asked whether the US would buy meaningful amounts of Bitcoin, and said Selig is working to bring Hyperliquid onshore in a fully compliant way. Did you see how HYPE reacted? All good headlines. 

CoinGlass has the 24-hour total at $3.42 billion as of 6:40 this morning. Of that, $3.12 billion came from shorts against $297 million in longs. Better than ten to one. Just under 198,000 traders got liquidated. Bitcoin accounted for $1.77 billion, Ethereum $1.17 billion, Solana another $111 million. The single largest print was a $48.8 million Bitcoin position on Hyperliquid. More than a billion dollars of Bitcoin shorts closed inside one hour, and the four-hour aggregate ran 77% short, with Bitmex and Bitfinex printing a clean 100%.

Hold that against October 10 of last year. That day produced roughly $19 billion in liquidations and killed the bull, but nearly all of it was longs. Yesterday's short-side number is larger than October 10's short-side number. In CoinGlass records going back to 2021, this is the biggest short liquidation event on file. Two asterisks worth knowing: Binance limited its liquidation reporting in April 2021 and Bybit did the same from September 2021 through February 2025, so the historical comparison is imperfect. It is still the largest anyone can actually measure, and it is a fitting bookend to the event that started this bear.

Here is what I care about more than the liquidation number. Bitcoin closed above its 200-day simple moving average for the first time since November. I have been telling you for weeks that the 200 Day is the line that matters and everything else is noise. We finally cleared it. Above the line you're long, below the line you're wrong, and we are on the right side of it for the first time in nine months.

Clearing is not holding. The 200-day exponential sits near $71,500, which is precisely where price is wrestling this morning, and the first horizontal shelf above that is $75,000. On the way down, $67,200 is now the level bulls need to defend. Lose it and the breakout is suspect, with $65,700 and $64,000 underneath. Beneath all of it, the 200 Week near $65K is still the floor this whole base was built on.

Checkmate over at Checkonchain put out a solid read overnight and his data lines up with mine. The move reclaimed the short-term holder cost basis around $67K, which is the first line any bear has to lose. That 10% run from $63K to $69K flipped more than 14% of all Bitcoin supply back into profit, roughly 2.8 million coins. Short-term holder supply in profit went from 18% to over 73% in a single day. Yesterday morning four in five recent buyers were underwater. This morning three in four are green. He is not popping champagne either, and neither am I. There is still a stack of long liquidation levels sitting down toward $60K, and one daily candle does not make a monthly trend.

This is the part that separates a squeeze from a turn. Spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $517 million on Wednesday, the biggest single day since May 4 and the third straight day of inflows. IBIT led with $285 million, ARKB added $78 million, FBTC $62 million, and eight of the twelve funds were positive, so this was not one product carrying the whole tape. Ether funds pulled $189 million, their best day since October 2025, with ETHA taking $122 million of it. XRP and Solana products both saw small inflows. Hyperliquid's fund was the lone outflow at about $2 million.

Monday put in $298 million and Tuesday $189 million, so August was already near $951 million before Wednesday. Add $517 million and the month runs past $1.4 billion. Forced buying moves price for an hour. Creations at that size mean allocators showed up on a breakout day and paid up. That is a different animal.

Three agencies are moving whether or not Congress does. The SEC proposed Regulation Crypto Assets on Tuesday, its first real crypto rulebook, creating two exempt paths to raise money without full registration at $5 million over four years or $75 million every twelve months with disclosures and ongoing reporting. It adds a safe harbor so a token stops being treated as an investment contract once the issuer finishes what it promised, and it preempts state blue sky registration. Comments run 60 days from Federal Register publication.

On CLARITY, the Senate returns September 14 and the procedural vote is set for September 15. It needs 60. The House passed its version 294 to 134 back in July 2025, Senate Banking moved it 15 to 9 in May, and cloture on the motion to proceed was filed August 8, so the machinery is in place. The two sticking points have not moved. Ethics language around officials profiting from digital assets is still unresolved, with the Tillis and Gallego counterproposal sitting at the White House. Hawley is still worried about community banks and stablecoin yield. Prediction markets are pricing this bearishly, roughly 19% to 21% on Polymarket for it becoming law in 2026, down from 82% in February, and Galaxy sits near 10%. Kalshi has an 88% chance the Senate votes before October 1, but a vote is not a passage.

Today's live event is the CFTC's first Innovation Advisory Committee meeting at 1pm eastern. Selig said he would lay out the regulatory path for Hyperliquid there. HYPE ripped anywhere from 17% to 26% depending on whose clock you use, and Hyperliquid Strategies stock jumped 30% on the day. If Selig gives concrete terms this afternoon, that trade keeps going. If he gives broad principles, it gives some back.

Ethereum is the real standout at $2,279, its biggest single-day gain since March, and it did the heavy lifting on the ETH/BTC pair I have been watching. XRP is up 7.7% at $1.19 and finally clear of the dollar handle it was defending. Solana sits at $86.76. TAO is at $209, HYPE $71.28, ZEC $565, AAVE $97.18, ONDO $0.35, ZRO $0.87. Everything on my board is green, which has not happened in a while.

I want to be straight with you about something. I am grateful we had exposure going into this. We have been in IBIT, ETHA and BSOL since July 20, and while none of those were heroic size, they were on when it mattered. That is the whole point of building positions in a tape nobody wants. You do not get to buy the base after the breakout.

I am actively looking for the next entries here, in both the majors and a couple of the alts that just changed structure, and you will get them the moment I see them. What I am not doing is chasing a candle that ran eleven percent in a day into moving average resistance. Let it prove something first.

The bear market got a body blow yesterday. Whether it got a knockout is a question that takes weeks to answer, not hours. What we know is real: the range broke, the 200-day gave way for the first time since November, three billion dollars of bearish positioning got vaporized, and institutional money showed up the same day with the biggest ETF print in three and a half months. What we do not know is whether spot demand shows up to hold these levels once the forced buying is finished, and that is the entire question.

Watch the CFTC at 1pm, watch whether today's ETF number confirms yesterday's, and watch the 30-year, because that is what started all of this in the first place.

Be an optimist, with a stop loss.

http://x.com/scottrades

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