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Unfolding Nature Shop: Unfolding Nature: Being in the Implicate Order

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Re: Trump allegedly lies & doctors map of hurricane Dorian, to pretend a tweet he sent was not wrong [Re: Citizen X]
    #26177612 -

Citizen X said:
qman said:
koods said:
Let’s just point out that any other elected or government official would have been required to divest of these properties before taking office



What makes you think Trump would be the exception to the rule?



So instead of “acting” stupid and asking for examples, why don’t you just be honest and say you don’t give a flying fuck about the emoluments clause and the constitution and you support Trump wiping his ass with our cons
qman said:
Citizen X said:
We can continue to name call and act as deranged and childish as Donald Trump or we can talk about things that matter for example the emoluments clause and how Donald Trump basically wipes his ass with our constitution

Which road do you wish you to go down?



How does Trump "wipes his ass with the constitution?



Brian Jones said:
Every President has probably made money off the office. No one has ever been this obvious about it before.



qman said:
koods said:
Let’s just point out that any other elected or government official would have been required to divest of these properties before taking office



What makes you think Trump would be the exception to the rule?



qman said:
Citizen X said:
Does anyone really need examples of how Trump is profiteering from the office of the presidency?



Yes. I'm unaware. :shrug:



Why can’t you just be honest and stop acting stupid and just say you don’t care if Trump wipes his with the constitution because I’m a partisan hack?



I think Koods explained the reasoning of the situation. Your issue isn't with Trump, it's with the current system.

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Re: Trump allegedly lies & doctors map of hurricane Dorian, to pretend a tweet he sent was not wrong [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #26181727 -

Falcon91Wolvrn03 said:
From your article:

"At the time of Trump’s initial tweet, the most recent forecast from the National Hurricane Center showed that a sliver of the state had a less than 10 percent chance of seeing tropical storm-force winds."  So there WAS a possibility of it hitting the state, though "The National Weather Service office in Birmingham clarified that day that Alabama was NOT in the storm's path."

Technically, NOAA actually confirmed that 2+2=4.

But this is kind of a silly topic for us and I think we're getting hung up on very minor things, so I'll let you have the final word if you like.



Do you honestly believe that the statement "a sliver of the state had a less than 10 percent chance of seeing tropical storm-force winds" is equal to "will most likely be hit (much) harder than anticipated", by "one of the largest hurricanes ever"? Tropical storm-force winds ≠ largest hurricanes ever. Less than 10 percent chance ≠ most likely. 2+2≠5.

But this is a big deal because it goes beyond Trump refusing to admit to a stupid mistake and using a puppet at a federal agency to defend him - this has already happened multiple times - but that unsigned statement also said that the forcast provided by the Birmingham NWS office was wrong. Regardless of motivation, your federal government is actively attempting to fit the weather forecast to your presidents statement despite the evidence against being publicly available objective data.

Either Trump correctly interpreted outdated weather data, or incorrectly interpreted current weather data - either way, the result is that the scientific agency tasked with gathering, modelling, and interpreting weather data issued a different forecast using the most current data available. This second forcast also proved to be accurate as the storm played out. And then, once it turned into yet another stupid political scandal, an unsigned letter is released that attempts to state that Trump, a layman, issued the correct forcast, rather than the experts - even though the experts are the ones who released the forcast that proved accurate.

This has the immediate negative consequence of casting doubt and confusion over government issued emergency weather notices - but it also has the long term negative consequence of further establishing the standard this administration has set from day one, when they claimed to have held the largest inauguration ever, of telling the public that 2+2=5.

Commerce Chief Threatened Firings at NOAA After Trump’s Dorian Tweets, Sources Say
Citing 'Danger to Public Safety,' Chief NOAA Scientist Launches Probe Into Agency Decision to Side With Trump Over Its Own Experts on Dorian
READ: NOAA releases memo criticizing how administration handled Hurricane Dorian dust-up

This person actually had the guts to sign their statement:
Quote:
A Message from Craig McLean: Hurricane Dorian and Exceptional Service
Dear Colleagues,

The fierce storm we know as Hurricane Dorian has concluded its ferocious path through the Bahamas and along the U.S. East Coast. Many of you have contributed to the excellent science that has underpinned the forecasts and current understanding of storms such as this one, which accelerated quite rapidly in intensity. The storm also presented challenges in track which improved with enhanced observations. We know that our collective work, from the scientists in the aircraft penetrating the storm, to the scientists deploying the glider picket line, to the modelers and folks working the physics of the storms, across OAR and in our CI'S, and across all NOAA Lines, we are working the problem in order to give the NWS forecasters the best tools we possibly can to keep America and our neighbors safe. Thank you.

During the course of the storm, as I am sure you are aware, there were routine and exceptional expert forecasts, the best possible, issued by the NWS Forecasters. These are remarkable colleagues of ours, who receive our products, use them well, and provide the benefit of their own experience in announcing accurate forecasts accompanied by the distinction of all credible scientists—they sign their work. As I'm sure you also know, there was a complex issue involving the President commenting on the path of the hurricane. The NWS Forecaster(s) corrected any public misunderstanding in an expert and timely way, as they should. There followed, last Friday, an unsigned press release from "NOAA" that inappropriately and incorrectly contradicted the NWS forecaster. My understanding is that this intervention to contradict the forecaster was not based on science but on external factors including reputation and appearance, or simply put, political. Our NOAA Scientific Integrity Policy and Code of Scientific Conduct make clear that all NOAA employees shall approach all scientific activities with honesty, objectively, and completely, without allegiance to individuals, organizations, or ideology. The content of this press release is very concerning as it compromises the ability of NOAA to convey life-saving information necessary to avoid substantial and specific danger to public health and safety. If the public cannot trust our information, or we debase our forecaster's warnings and products, that specific danger arises.

You know that the value of our science is in the complexity of our understanding, our ability to convey that understanding to a wide audience of users of this information, and to establish and sustain the public trust in the truth and legitimacy of that information. Unfortunately, the press release of last Friday violated this trust and violated NOAA's policies of scientific integrity. In my role as Assistant Administrator for Research, and as I continue to administratively serve as Acting Chief Scientist, I am pursuing the potential violations of our NOAA Administrative Order on Scientific Integrity. Thankfully, we have such policies that are independently cited as among the best in the federal community, if not the best. Your NOAA and OAR management and leadership team believes in these policies and principles. I have a responsibility to pursue these truths. I will.

Thank you for your continued excellent work, and your trust. Carry on.

Craig McLean, NOAA Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Assistant Administrator
Assistant Administrator
Oceanic and Atmospheric Research
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration




So sure, you can cling to your "I'll let you have the final word if you like", because at this point staying silent is the only other option you have if you don't want to admit that you let your own TDS lead you into supporting an indefensible position.


--------------------

Edited by shivas.wisdom (09/11/19 11:59 AM)

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Re: Trump allegedly lies & doctors map of hurricane Dorian, to pretend a tweet he sent was not wrong [Re: shivas.wisdom]
    #26181730 -

I’m just amazed that people cannot admit that Trump was wrong. He either had no idea what he was taking about or he was lying.

Professional scientists who work for the government now have to worry about their jobs if they have to report a reality that contradicts the president. It’s not right.


--------------------
NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”

Edited by koods (09/11/19 11:59 AM)

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Re: Trump allegedly lies & doctors map of hurricane Dorian, to pretend a tweet he sent was not wrong [Re: koods]
    #26181802 -

I said you can have the last word, but you asked questions.

shivas.wisdom said:
Do you honestly believe that the statement "a sliver of the state had a less than 10 percent chance of seeing tropical storm-force winds" is equal to "will most likely be hit (much) harder than anticipated", by "one of the largest hurricanes ever"?



No, but you left out the the important context.  He Tweeted:  "In addition to Florida - South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia, and Alabama, will most likely be hit (much) harder than anticipated."  So he wasn't just focused on Alabama as you and the media are trying to make believe.

shivas.wisdom said:
that unsigned statement also said that the forcast provided by the Birmingham NWS office was wrong.



The National Weather Service office in Birmingham said that Alabama was NOT in the storm's path, but there actually was <10% chance.  So they should have said it was LIKELY not in the storm's path to be correct.


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.

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Re: Trump allegedly lies & doctors map of hurricane Dorian, to pretend a tweet he sent was not wrong [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #26181806 -

No one is contesting the fact that the other states were appropriately warned.


--------------------
NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”

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Re: Trump allegedly lies & doctors map of hurricane Dorian, to pretend a tweet he sent was not wrong [Re: koods]
    #26181822 -

koods said:
No one is contesting the fact that the other states were appropriately warned.



So his warning was appropriate.  Some were worried that he included Alabama in the warning, so an update was issued.

Anyone else notice how koods is very skilled at starting a debate about the most petty and irrelevant things, as long as it's about Trump?


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.

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Re: Trump allegedly lies & doctors map of hurricane Dorian, to pretend a tweet he sent was not wrong [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03] * 1
    #26181836 -

You do not debate in good faith


--------------------
NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”

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Re: Trump allegedly lies & doctors map of hurricane Dorian, to pretend a tweet he sent was not wrong [Re: koods]
    #26181845 -

Explain... don't make believe.


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.

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Re: Trump allegedly lies & doctors map of hurricane Dorian, to pretend a tweet he sent was not wrong [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #26182091 -

One example: your decision to continue to act as of this is a debate about Trump making a mistake of geography in a tweet (a petty and irrelevant thing), rather than being about Trump forcing the national weather service to conform to his mistake instead of letting the expert scientists do objective work (a significant and relevant thing). Stop misrepresenting the discussion.




Falcon91Wolvrn03 said:
shivas.wisdom said:
Do you honestly believe that the statement "a sliver of the state had a less than 10 percent chance of seeing tropical storm-force winds" is equal to "will most likely be hit (much) harder than anticipated", by "one of the largest hurricanes ever"?



No, but you left out the the important context.  He Tweeted:  "In addition to Florida - South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia, and Alabama, will most likely be hit (much) harder than anticipated."  So he wasn't just focused on Alabama as you and the media are trying to make believe.



The discussion has never been that Trump only warned Alabama, it has always been that Trump erroneously included Alabama with the other states. Stop misrepresenting this; your intelligent we all know this is intentional bad faith debating. Your "important context" doesn't do anything other than allow you to avoid responding to the actual substance - which is that an unsigned statement issued by the NOAA equated the two statements above and, as you agree, these were not equivalent statements. 2+2=5. Whether the initial tweet was about only Alabama or not doesn't change anything.



Falcon91Wolvrn03 said:
shivas.wisdom said:
that unsigned statement also said that the forcast provided by the Birmingham NWS office was wrong.



The National Weather Service office in Birmingham said that Alabama was NOT in the storm's path, but there actually was <10% chance.  So they should have said it was LIKELY not in the storm's path to be correct.



There is no such thing as certainty is weather forcast. Their job is to interpret the data and relate in to the general public in the most understandable way. They likely saw that a sliver of the state had a less than 10 percent chance of seeing tropical storm-force winds and decided that the best way to represent this information to the public in a concise and understandable way, especially in the wake of the confusion the presidents tweet was likely to soon cause, was to issue a forcast that states "Alabama will NOT see any impacts from #Dorian. We repeat, no impacts from Hurricane #Dorian will be felt across Alabama. The system will remain too far east." I feel it's also important to note here that the tropical winds a sliver of Alabama had a slight risk of experiencing are significantly slower than the category 5 storm that was the hurricane proper.

We can't know their exact reasons for phrasing the data the way they did, but we should trust these people to be the experts in this stuff. Gathering and reporting weather data is what they do. And guess what, it really does appear that among the fellow scientists of NOAA there is unanimous support for the NWS office of Birmingham. A choice paragraph from the previously included letter:

Quote:
During the course of the storm, as I am sure you are aware, there were routine and exceptional expert forecasts, the best possible, issued by the NWS Forecasters. These are remarkable colleagues of ours, who receive our products, use them well, and provide the benefit of their own experience in announcing accurate forecasts accompanied by the distinction of all credible scientists—they sign their work. As I'm sure you also know, there was a complex issue involving the President commenting on the path of the hurricane. The NWS Forecaster(s) corrected any public misunderstanding in an expert and timely way, as they should. There followed, last Friday, an unsigned press release from "NOAA" that inappropriately and incorrectly contradicted the NWS forecaster. My understanding is that this intervention to contradict the forecaster was not based on science but on external factors including reputation and appearance, or simply put, political.




Seriously, what's more likely - that all the weather scientists are united in misrepresenting data in order to win a meaningless political victory over Trump - or that Trump would rather pervert the ability of federal scientists to objectively report data to the public than admit he was wrong?

How about you - can you admit that you were wrong?


--------------------

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Re: Trump allegedly lies & doctors map of hurricane Dorian, to pretend a tweet he sent was not wrong [Re: shivas.wisdom]
    #26182191 -

If the chance of tropical storm strength winds is worth a “expected to be hit (much) harder than anticipated,” then where were the warnings for Virginia, Maryland and Massachusetts? All states that saw actual tropical storm force winds from Dorian.

Maybe he doesn’t care about those states because he has no chance of winning any of them next year


--------------------
NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”

Edited by koods (09/11/19 04:37 PM)

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Re: Trump allegedly lies & doctors map of hurricane Dorian, to pretend a tweet he sent was not wrong [Re: shivas.wisdom]
    #26182209 -

shivas.wisdom said:
One example: your decision to continue to act as of this is a debate about Trump making a mistake of geography in a tweet (a petty and irrelevant thing), rather than being about Trump forcing the national weather service to conform to his mistake instead of letting the expert scientists do objective work (a significant and relevant thing). Stop misrepresenting the discussion.



Trump didn't make a mistake about geography.  One could certainly argue that he shouldn't have included Alabama in his tweet since the hurricane forecast was shifting North, but Alabama WAS still included, and the National Weather Service office in Birmingham was wrong to say that Alabama was NOT in the storm's path when there was actually still a ~10% chance it could hit Alabama.

shivas.wisdom said:
The discussion has never been that Trump only warned Alabama, it has always been that Trump erroneously included Alabama with the other states. Stop misrepresenting this



Alabama was the ONLY state anyone mentioned in the first 40 posts of this thread.  :facepalm3:

shivas.wisdom said:
Your "important context" doesn't do anything other than allow you to avoid responding to the actual substance - which is that an unsigned statement issued by the NOAA equated the two statements above and, as you agree, these were not equivalent statements. 2+2=5. Whether the initial tweet was about only Alabama or not doesn't change anything.



I missed where NOAA equated the two statements.  I read that they clarified some forecasts had the hurricane going through Alabama.  Can you provide a link where they equated the two?

shivas.wisdom said:
Falcon91Wolvrn03 said:
The National Weather Service office in Birmingham said that Alabama was NOT in the storm's path, but there actually was ~10% chance.  So they should have said it was LIKELY not in the storm's path to be correct.



There is no such thing as certainty is weather forcast. Their job is to interpret the data and relate in to the general public in the most understandable way.



You don't think "likely not" is understandable to the general public?!?

shivas.wisdom said:
Seriously, what's more likely - that all the weather scientists are united in misrepresenting data in order to win a meaningless political victory over Trump - or that Trump would rather pervert the ability of federal scientists to objectively report data to the public than admit he was wrong?



Can you show that "all" weather scientists are united in saying that Trump was wrong?  Or do you just have a letter from one person?


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.

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Re: Trump allegedly lies & doctors map of hurricane Dorian, to pretend a tweet he sent was not wrong [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #26182219 -

Quote:
Trump didn't make a mistake about geography.  One could certainly argue that he shouldn't have included Alabama in his tweet since the hurricane forecast was shifting North, but Alabama WAS still included, and the National Weather Service office in Birmingham was wrong to say that Alabama was NOT in the storm's path when there was actually still a ~10% chance it could hit Alabama.



Seriously, what the fuck is wrong with you? The WEATHER FORCASTERS IN ALABAMA WERE WRONG? Did Alabama get hit?


--------------------
NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”

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Re: Trump allegedly lies & doctors map of hurricane Dorian, to pretend a tweet he sent was not wrong [Re: koods] * 3
    #26182222 -

Can we please stop entertaining this insanity?


--------------------
NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”

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Re: Trump allegedly lies & doctors map of hurricane Dorian, to pretend a tweet he sent was not wrong [Re: koods]
    #26182232 -

koods said:
Seriously, what the fuck is wrong with you? The WEATHER FORCASTERS IN ALABAMA WERE WRONG? Did Alabama get hit?



Now you're arguing something completely different while accusing me of arguing in bad faith.

YOU are the one that showed the forecasts going through Alabama.


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.

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Re: Trump allegedly lies & doctors map of hurricane Dorian, to pretend a tweet he sent was not wrong [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #26182513 -

Falcon91Wolvrn03 said:
koods said:
Seriously, what the fuck is wrong with you? The WEATHER FORCASTERS IN ALABAMA WERE WRONG? Did Alabama get hit?



Now you're arguing something completely different while accusing me of arguing in bad faith.

YOU are the one that showed the forecasts going through Alabama.



That’s not a forecast buddy you should learn the difference between the two.


--------------------


Rate me here

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Re: Trump allegedly lies & doctors map of hurricane Dorian, to pretend a tweet he sent was not wrong [Re: Citizen X]
    #26182516 -

What you’re confused about is hypothetical lines vise a forecast


--------------------


Rate me here

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Re: Trump allegedly lies & doctors map of hurricane Dorian, to pretend a tweet he sent was not wrong [Re: Citizen X]
    #26182536 -

Citizen X said:
What you’re confused about is hypothetical lines vise a forecast



So Trump was presented with hypothetical lines rather than weather forecasts?  Huh?!?

Can anyone here explain that?


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.

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Re: Trump allegedly lies & doctors map of hurricane Dorian, to pretend a tweet he sent was not wrong [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #26182592 -

No Trump used hypothetical lines and tried to make that into a forecast


--------------------


Rate me here

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Re: Trump allegedly lies & doctors map of hurricane Dorian, to pretend a tweet he sent was not wrong [Re: Citizen X]
    #26182596 -

Citizen X said:
What you’re confused about is hypothetical lines vise a forecast



Citizen X said:
Falcon91Wolvrn03 said:
koods said:
Seriously, what the fuck is wrong with you? The WEATHER FORCASTERS IN ALABAMA WERE WRONG? Did Alabama get hit?



Now you're arguing something completely different while accusing me of arguing in bad faith.

YOU are the one that showed the forecasts going through Alabama.



That’s not a forecast buddy you should learn the difference between the two.




--------------------


Rate me here

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Re: Trump allegedly lies & doctors map of hurricane Dorian, to pretend a tweet he sent was not wrong [Re: Citizen X]
    #26182623 -

Citizen X said:
No Trump used hypothetical lines and tried to make that into a forecast



So this was 'hypothetical lines' and not a forecast?



--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.

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Unfolding Nature Shop: Unfolding Nature: Being in the Implicate Order


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