Falcon91Wolvrn03 said: From your article:
"At the time of Trump’s initial tweet, the most recent forecast from the National Hurricane Center showed that a sliver of the state had a less than 10 percent chance of seeing tropical storm-force winds." So there WAS a possibility of it hitting the state, though "The National Weather Service office in Birmingham clarified that day that Alabama was NOT in the storm's path."
Technically, NOAA actually confirmed that 2+2=4.
But this is kind of a silly topic for us and I think we're getting hung up on very minor things, so I'll let you have the final word if you like.
Do you honestly believe that the statement "a sliver of the state had a less than 10 percent chance of seeing tropical storm-force winds" is equal to "will most likely be hit (much) harder than anticipated", by "one of the largest hurricanes ever"? Tropical storm-force winds ≠ largest hurricanes ever. Less than 10 percent chance ≠ most likely. 2+2≠5.
But this is a big deal because it goes beyond Trump refusing to admit to a stupid mistake and using a puppet at a federal agency to defend him - this has already happened multiple times - but that unsigned statement also said that the forcast provided by the Birmingham NWS office was wrong. Regardless of motivation, your federal government is actively attempting to fit the weather forecast to your presidents statement despite the evidence against being publicly available objective data.
Either Trump correctly interpreted outdated weather data, or incorrectly interpreted current weather data - either way, the result is that the scientific agency tasked with gathering, modelling, and interpreting weather data issued a different forecast using the most current data available. This second forcast also proved to be accurate as the storm played out. And then, once it turned into yet another stupid political scandal, an unsigned letter is released that attempts to state that Trump, a layman, issued the correct forcast, rather than the experts - even though the experts are the ones who released the forcast that proved accurate.
This has the immediate negative consequence of casting doubt and confusion over government issued emergency weather notices - but it also has the long term negative consequence of further establishing the standard this administration has set from day one, when they claimed to have held the largest inauguration ever, of telling the public that 2+2=5.
Commerce Chief Threatened Firings at NOAA After Trump’s Dorian Tweets, Sources Say Citing 'Danger to Public Safety,' Chief NOAA Scientist Launches Probe Into Agency Decision to Side With Trump Over Its Own Experts on Dorian READ: NOAA releases memo criticizing how administration handled Hurricane Dorian dust-up
This person actually had the guts to sign their statement:
Quote: A Message from Craig McLean: Hurricane Dorian and Exceptional Service Dear Colleagues,
The fierce storm we know as Hurricane Dorian has concluded its ferocious path through the Bahamas and along the U.S. East Coast. Many of you have contributed to the excellent science that has underpinned the forecasts and current understanding of storms such as this one, which accelerated quite rapidly in intensity. The storm also presented challenges in track which improved with enhanced observations. We know that our collective work, from the scientists in the aircraft penetrating the storm, to the scientists deploying the glider picket line, to the modelers and folks working the physics of the storms, across OAR and in our CI'S, and across all NOAA Lines, we are working the problem in order to give the NWS forecasters the best tools we possibly can to keep America and our neighbors safe. Thank you.
During the course of the storm, as I am sure you are aware, there were routine and exceptional expert forecasts, the best possible, issued by the NWS Forecasters. These are remarkable colleagues of ours, who receive our products, use them well, and provide the benefit of their own experience in announcing accurate forecasts accompanied by the distinction of all credible scientists—they sign their work. As I'm sure you also know, there was a complex issue involving the President commenting on the path of the hurricane. The NWS Forecaster(s) corrected any public misunderstanding in an expert and timely way, as they should. There followed, last Friday, an unsigned press release from "NOAA" that inappropriately and incorrectly contradicted the NWS forecaster. My understanding is that this intervention to contradict the forecaster was not based on science but on external factors including reputation and appearance, or simply put, political. Our NOAA Scientific Integrity Policy and Code of Scientific Conduct make clear that all NOAA employees shall approach all scientific activities with honesty, objectively, and completely, without allegiance to individuals, organizations, or ideology. The content of this press release is very concerning as it compromises the ability of NOAA to convey life-saving information necessary to avoid substantial and specific danger to public health and safety. If the public cannot trust our information, or we debase our forecaster's warnings and products, that specific danger arises.
You know that the value of our science is in the complexity of our understanding, our ability to convey that understanding to a wide audience of users of this information, and to establish and sustain the public trust in the truth and legitimacy of that information. Unfortunately, the press release of last Friday violated this trust and violated NOAA's policies of scientific integrity. In my role as Assistant Administrator for Research, and as I continue to administratively serve as Acting Chief Scientist, I am pursuing the potential violations of our NOAA Administrative Order on Scientific Integrity. Thankfully, we have such policies that are independently cited as among the best in the federal community, if not the best. Your NOAA and OAR management and leadership team believes in these policies and principles. I have a responsibility to pursue these truths. I will.
Thank you for your continued excellent work, and your trust. Carry on.
Craig McLean, NOAA Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Assistant Administrator Assistant Administrator Oceanic and Atmospheric Research National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
So sure, you can cling to your "I'll let you have the final word if you like", because at this point staying silent is the only other option you have if you don't want to admit that you let your own TDS lead you into supporting an indefensible position.
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Edited by shivas.wisdom (09/11/19 11:59 AM)
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