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Re: XLIV! [Re: Senor_Doobie]
    #11991357 -

Senor_Doobie said:
They were talking (Simms and Nanz) about the defensive gameplan for the game and aaid that they had three different plans, one for the first half, one for the third quarter and one for the fourth.  They didn't really go into any detail about it but I am curious as to what went down there exactly.


yeah i heard that too. very smart though, change it up on peyton. you have to. he's too good to do the same thing for the whole game. he'll eventually eat you alive.

all that shit at the beginning of the week too, about "remember me shots" was probably bullshit just to get everybody talking about something else. he knew he had to bring it on defense in this game and he did. the defensive cooridinator that is. he came up with a very good game plan. and needless to say, that onside kick was the ballsiest superbowl call i think i've ever seen. perfect timing to do it too, who in their right mind would think the saints would onside kick the ball to start the second half? definitely not the colts.

and brees is definitely an elite quarterback now too. i didn't know much about him til this year. well i knew he was a good quarterback but was always on a bad team, chargers didn't do shit when he was there, and the saints didn't either for the first couple years.  he's up there with manning and brady as far as i'm concerned. that shot of him with his kid after the game ended was cool too.

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Re: XLIV! [Re: FarBeyondDriven]
    #11991393 -

Well, his last year in San Diego, the team did go 14-2.  The Chargers have been a good team on the verge of greatness forever, or so it seems.  Kind of like Seattle always was until now.


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"America: Fuck yeah!" -- Alexthegreat

“Nothing can now be believed which is seen in a newspaper. Truth itself becomes suspicious by being put into that polluted vehicle. The real extent of this state of misinformation is known only to those who are in situations to confront facts within their knowledge with the lies of the day.”  -- Thomas Jefferson

The greatest sin of mankind is ignorance.

The press takes [Trump] literally, but not seriously; his supporters take him seriously, but not literally. --Salena Zeto (9/23/16)

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Re: XLIV! [Re: FarBeyondDriven]
    #11991419 -

Quote:
that shot of him with his kid after the game ended was cool too.


"All this too will be yours one day, my son." :grin:



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“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch

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Re: XLIV! [Re: zorbman]
    #11991466 -

:awesham:


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Signature (up to 750 characters).

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Re: XLIV! [Re: cortex]
    #11991633 -



Breesus!!


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“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch

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Re: XLIV! [Re: zorbman]
    #11991893 -

Saints
:woot:


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L'enfer est plein de bonnes volontés et désirs

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Re: XLIV! [Re: Cognitive_Shift]
    #11992836 -

Who Dat Babe'

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Re: XLIV! [Re: DreamRoom]
    #11993547 -

My mistake.  Sean Payton. 

The point was that if a 50/50 play goes the other way, just one play, he goes from genius to jerkoff.  Fate is a fickle mistress.

The NY Times today had an analysis of what they considered the 3 gambles Payton took.  4th and goal, which was stopped but still clearly, in most people's opinion, the right call.  That Manning then went on the longest drive in Super Bowl history shows that even the wisest decision can backfire.  The second was going for 2 with a 5 point lead late.  Again, I didn't think there was really much debate there.  What does getting 1 achieve?  Essentially nothing. 

Then there is the on-sides kick.  The Times used a win percentage model and found that going for it increased the Saints' win percentage by 0.02.  Coin toss.  Big Balls.  They got away wiith it.

So of the three so-called gambles, 2 weren't really, one of which they got burnt on, and the third, the on sides, was just fucking luck.

Which is why it's dumb to focus on "turning point" plays.  The Saints did a good job the whole game.  Of probably greater moment was that the Colts' pass rush seemed to disappear in the second half, whether by Saints' design or Freeney stiffening up.  He pretty much became a spectator in the second half.


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Re: XLIV! [Re: zappaisgod]
    #11993977 -

You're confused.  After the fourth and goal play, all the Colts tried to do was run out the clock by giving it to Adai a few times and then punting with about 45 seconds left at which time the Saints set up the field goal that sent the game into halftime 10-6.  They didn't get burned on any of three "gambles" you mentioned.  The Colts scored zero points in the second quarter.


--------------------
"America: Fuck yeah!" -- Alexthegreat

“Nothing can now be believed which is seen in a newspaper. Truth itself becomes suspicious by being put into that polluted vehicle. The real extent of this state of misinformation is known only to those who are in situations to confront facts within their knowledge with the lies of the day.”  -- Thomas Jefferson

The greatest sin of mankind is ignorance.

The press takes [Trump] literally, but not seriously; his supporters take him seriously, but not literally. --Salena Zeto (9/23/16)

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Re: XLIV! [Re: Senor_Doobie]
    #11994479 -

Senor_Doobie said:
You're confused.  After the fourth and goal play, all the Colts tried to do was run out the clock by giving it to Adai a few times and then punting with about 45 seconds left at which time the Saints set up the field goal that sent the game into halftime 10-6.  They didn't get burned on any of three "gambles" you mentioned.  The Colts scored zero points in the second quarter.


Oh I thought that was the huge drive.

Regardless, they did fail on the play.  But like I said, I didn't think it was a gamble.  Or going for two.  For most people those were obvious choices.


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Re: XLIV! [Re: zappaisgod]
    #11994863 -

Quote:
Then there is the on-sides kick.  The Times used a win percentage model and found that going for it increased the Saints' win percentage by 0.02.


Whatever that means. I have no idea what that model is trying to say but I'd say it was more like 90%. The Saints had been held out of the end zone for an entire half, and it's pretty clear that Peyton would have scored had they kicked it away (or if, even worse, the onside had failed); they would have ended up down by 11 instead of up by 3, which would have required the biggest comeback in Super Bowl history instead of merely tying the previous one.  You wanna talk about the fallacy of predetermined outcomes; the emotional impact would have been completely reversed, and Sean Payton would have never lived it down. When you consider that the Saints had INFINITELY more riding on this game than the Colts did (the Colts are still favored to win next year), well, you can call it "just fucking luck" or you can call it laying EVERYTHING on the line (Nobody thinks any less of Peyton for losing, but Payton would have NEVER lived it down) and trusting your team to put 2 weeks of practice (and the tensest halftime of their lives) to good use.

I think an obvious onside kick is luck, because everyone's expecting it and it's just whoever ends up at the bottom of the scrum. But the look on Peyton's face, and the way Thomas finally broke into the endzone, said it all. That play won the game, and yes, I will go so far as to say that they probably would have lost without it.


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BEST TEAM IN THE UNIVERSE

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Re: XLIV! [Re: jimbotron]
    #11994883 -

jimbotron said:
Quote:
Then there is the on-sides kick.  The Times used a win percentage model and found that going for it increased the Saints' win percentage by 0.02.


Whatever that means. I have no idea what that model is trying to say but I'd say it was more like 90%.


I got an idea.  Why not, instead of just babbling on, you try to find out what it means?  I'm not going to provide a fucking tutorial for you every time I cite a particular statistical analysis.


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Re: XLIV! [Re: jimbotron]
    #11995018 -

Here's a TMQ excerpt regarding how the failed fourth and short by the Saints wasn't a failure at all.  It's just an excerpt of the main article, which is good, as usual.

Quote:
SOUTH FLORIDA, Fla. -- Fortune favors the bold! The Saints had nothing to lose in the 44th Super Bowl, since their season was already a success regardless of the outcome. All the pressure was on the Colts, whose season would be a failure unless they won. The Saints were loose and spontaneous, the Colts were stiff and mechanical. Boldness was the key to the New Orleans victory -- not just the onside kick to open the second half, but also Sean Payton's decision to try for a touchdown on fourth-and-goal at the Colts' 1-yard line, trailing 10-3. Though that play failed, the failure was a tremendous success -- fortune favors the bold!

How was the failed fourth-and-goal try a success? Short-term, by improving the New Orleans situation at the end of the first half. After the turnover on downs, Indianapolis took possession on its own 1-yard line with 1:49 remaining until The Who began shrieking. Timidly -- that is, not boldly -- the Colts called three consecutive dives into the line and then sent in the punt unit, even though New Orleans had all its timeouts when the Indianapolis possession started. Using the timeouts, the Saints preserved enough time to launch a field goal as the first half ended, making it 10-6 at intermission. Thus New Orleans got the three points it would have gotten anyway had Sean Payton sent in the place-kicker on fourth-and-goal. But if he had done that, Indianapolis would have taken possession in much better field position following the kickoff, with time (and two timeouts) to score as well before intermission. Payton knew that if his fourth-and-goal attempt failed, Indianapolis would be pinned against its own goal line with the clock ticking and the Saints holding three timeouts. The Saints were better off going for it and failing on fourth-and-goal than kicking a field goal. Fortune favors the bold!


http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrook/100209&sportCat=nfl

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Re: XLIV! [Re: Redstorm]
    #11995045 -

Saints winning the superbowl still makes me chuckle.



Now all we need is Detroit and Cleveland to make a run.


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"Shmokin' weed, Shmokin' wizz, doin' coke, drinkin' beers.  Drinkin' beers beers beers, rollin' fatties, smokin' blunts.  Who smokes tha blunts?  We smoke the blunts" - Jay and Silent Bob strike Back

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Re: XLIV! [Re: LiquidSmoke]
    #11995121 -

How does scoring a field goal several minutes later not represent a failure when success would have meant scoring a touchdown immediately?

But, like I said, I didn't think it was a gamble because even failure was not that bad.  It's just that success would have been better.


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Re: XLIV! [Re: Redstorm]
    #11995633 -

I haven't read TMQ in a while but I like the way he thinks about football strategy.


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!

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Re: XLIV! [Re: zappaisgod]
    #11997661 -

zappaisgod said:
How does scoring a field goal several minutes later not represent a failure when success would have meant scoring a touchdown immediately?



Because the potential 7 points was not risked.  By going for it on fourth down, you risk 3 points for the chance to gain 7.  Because the situation that followed allowed New Orleans to reclaim that 3 points, nothing was lost.


--------------------
"America: Fuck yeah!" -- Alexthegreat

“Nothing can now be believed which is seen in a newspaper. Truth itself becomes suspicious by being put into that polluted vehicle. The real extent of this state of misinformation is known only to those who are in situations to confront facts within their knowledge with the lies of the day.”  -- Thomas Jefferson

The greatest sin of mankind is ignorance.

The press takes [Trump] literally, but not seriously; his supporters take him seriously, but not literally. --Salena Zeto (9/23/16)

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Re: XLIV! [Re: Senor_Doobie]
    #11997755 -

4 points were lost by not scoring a touchdown.  I'm not talking potential points, which is what you weren't talking about either since you talked about actual points.  At the time they blew the TD the FG that was to come was imaginary.  It wasn't guaranteed at all.


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Re: XLIV! [Re: LiquidSmoke]
    #11998356 -

LiquidSmoke said:
Saints winning the superbowl still makes me chuckle.



Now all we need is Detroit and Cleveland to make a run.

:yesnod::highfive::derfase:

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Re: XLIV! [Re: zappaisgod]
    #11998389 -

No, not guaranteed, but that's what makes it a gamble.  And technically you are right, you risk 3 for the chance to gain 4. 

Its like if you buy a lottery ticket for $2 for the chance to win $2500 or something.  You give up the $2 for the chance.  If the ticket does not pay anything, you're out $2.  If it pays $2, you are even.  Whether or not the ticket wins does not negate the fact that you risked $2.


--------------------
"America: Fuck yeah!" -- Alexthegreat

“Nothing can now be believed which is seen in a newspaper. Truth itself becomes suspicious by being put into that polluted vehicle. The real extent of this state of misinformation is known only to those who are in situations to confront facts within their knowledge with the lies of the day.”  -- Thomas Jefferson

The greatest sin of mankind is ignorance.

The press takes [Trump] literally, but not seriously; his supporters take him seriously, but not literally. --Salena Zeto (9/23/16)

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