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Unfolding Nature Shop: Unfolding Nature: Being in the Implicate Order

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$800 Billion Dollar Bailout - What are the risks?
    #8964070 -

The newspapers are filled with comments on the $800 Billion dollar bailout.  They're always saying that it's expensive and risky.  The word expensive I understand.  $800 billion dollar is a staggering number.  However, people keep on saying that it's risky but they never say what the risks are. 

While I'm not totally ignorant on how and what affects the economy, what are the risks?  Is pouring $800 Billion dollars into those faltering companies likened to pouring money into a leaking bucket?  Will this kind of unprecedented bailout lead to runaway inflation?  If the government goes that deeply into debt, does it mean that there's no money left for the upkeep of the infrastructure in maintaining roadways and bridges, social programs, prisons?

What are your thoughts?  What are the risks that no one seems to be spelling out?


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There is no such thing as a dumb question.  There are just curious people trying to learn something new. 

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Re: $800 Billion Dollar Bailout - What are the risks? [Re: AdoreChampignons]
    #8964548 -

AdoreChampignons said:
Is pouring $800 Billion dollars into those faltering companies likened to pouring money into a leaking bucket?



Ya, there's a high downside risk, but there's still the possible benefit of an upside.  For both these directions, it's hard to enumerate the spread.

Quote:
Will this kind of unprecedented bailout lead to runaway inflation?



More likely, it will cause short term inflation in the 6-7% range.  Nothing that's not manageable for a couple of months (thank god the inflation will coincide with the holiday season).

Quote:
If the government goes that deeply into debt, does it mean that there's no money left for the upkeep of the infrastructure in maintaining roadways and bridges, social programs, prisons?



We'll be fine.  The raise in the debt ceiling (1.5 trillion I believe), is only about 1/8 of what the debt already was.  It's a significant amount, but it's not going to be the straw that breaks the camel's back.

As far as risks that you haven't listed already, I'd be afraid that the next round of possible bailouts misses the target, or that there will be more bailouts afterward, or that this will encourage future mismanagement.  A neutral effect might be the discouragement of lenders from giving loans.  Depends on which side of the fence you're on for that one.  The possible upside is that we may hash out the problems with the market and make the appropriate reforms, although I wouldn't hold your breath on that one.


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Discuss Politics

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Re: $800 Billion Dollar Bailout - What are the risks? [Re: AdoreChampignons]
    #8964664 -

The more loans the government gives out, the more interest it (you) has(ve) to pay back.

The more interest there is to pay back,  the more  new loans they need to take out to pay the old ones, creating even MORE interest in a never ending exponential cycle of doom.

and extra new loans taken out speed up the process, and create higher amounts of volatility in the markets as the debts soar, and money devalues.

people are thinking "F--- cash, i want commodities" which creates liquidity problems and banks fail, since they are in the business of cash.

as i see it, the biggest risk is the future of banks and finacial institutions,  which dont contribute anything of value to the economy anyways.  all they do is suck suck suck liek a parasite.

but anyways... yeah.


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http://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/

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Re: $800 Billion Dollar Bailout - What are the risks? [Re: Shins]
    #8965305 -

Quote:
The more loans the government gives out, the more interest it (you) has(ve) to pay back



Isn't this backwards, and isn't the interest to be collected from the loans given to the entities in question the primary source of potential income/profit for the government in the bailout scenario?


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I am become death, the destroyer of worlds.

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Re: $800 Billion Dollar Bailout - What are the risks? [Re: thedefone]
    #8965558 -

The government has to go in huge debt to do this bailout.

They don't hae this type of money on hand, they're getting further into debt to pay off other's debt.

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Re: $800 Billion Dollar Bailout - What are the risks? [Re: kidaihuan]
    #8965658 -

i think the risk is that their going to hit us for another $800B next year..and the year after that..and so on.. as long as they know that they can hold the public to ransom...


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"anchor blocks counteract the process of pontiprobation..while omalean globes regulize the pressure"...

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Re: $800 Billion Dollar Bailout - What are the risks? [Re: thedefone]
    #8965731 -

thedefone said:
Quote:
The more loans the government gives out, the more interest it (you) has(ve) to pay back



Isn't this backwards, and isn't the interest to be collected from the loans given to the entities in question the primary source of potential income/profit for the government in the bailout scenario?



Isnt the Loan from the federal reserve?  meaning any potential interest/profit goes to them? 

there is still a lot of risk there will be no profit anyways


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http://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/

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Re: $800 Billion Dollar Bailout - What are the risks? [Re: Shins]
    #8965927 -

Well, the principle risk with giving a loan is getting paid back.  Its a credit issue.  And the fact that the bail-out is deliberately being given to entities with horrible credit make it a bigger risk.

I am not sure why we are so eager to bail out these financial institutions.  It seems pretty stupid to me.  Inflation is obviously an issue at all here because of the ridiculous amount of money being designated for these bail outs.  Someone up there said it is a total of 1/8 of the current debt.  That's insane!  We are in a landslide of overwhelming debt which is devaluing everything American to pay for bullshit wars and useless bail outs.

I don't really know what the bail-out idea is to be honest, haven't read it.  I know the AIG bail out is a loan that must be paid back in 2 years...and that to me doesn't seem to make sense given current market trends.  Every economist I hear talk about this say its going to be very bad for at least 8-9 years.  The FED guy himself is saying we are experiencing the type of market hit that is faced once a century.  Is he referring to a Great Depression?  Who knows, but its bad.  And what makes me laugh is there are probably still right wing bobble heads out there still convinced this isn't a recession yet.


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"America: Fuck yeah!" -- Alexthegreat

“Nothing can now be believed which is seen in a newspaper. Truth itself becomes suspicious by being put into that polluted vehicle. The real extent of this state of misinformation is known only to those who are in situations to confront facts within their knowledge with the lies of the day.”  -- Thomas Jefferson

The greatest sin of mankind is ignorance.

The press takes [Trump] literally, but not seriously; his supporters take him seriously, but not literally. --Salena Zeto (9/23/16)

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Re: $800 Billion Dollar Bailout - What are the risks? [Re: Ferris]
    #8966085 -

Ferris said:
AdoreChampignons said:
Is pouring $800 Billion dollars into those faltering companies likened to pouring money into a leaking bucket?



Ya, there's a high downside risk, but there's still the possible benefit of an upside.  For both these directions, it's hard to enumerate the spread.

Quote:
Will this kind of unprecedented bailout lead to runaway inflation?



More likely, it will cause short term inflation in the 6-7% range.  Nothing that's not manageable for a couple of months (thank god the inflation will coincide with the holiday season).

Quote:
If the government goes that deeply into debt, does it mean that there's no money left for the upkeep of the infrastructure in maintaining roadways and bridges, social programs, prisons?



We'll be fine.  The raise in the debt ceiling (1.5 trillion I believe), is only about 1/8 of what the debt already was.  It's a significant amount, but it's not going to be the straw that breaks the camel's back.

As far as risks that you haven't listed already, I'd be afraid that the next round of possible bailouts misses the target, or that there will be more bailouts afterward, or that this will encourage future mismanagement.  A neutral effect might be the discouragement of lenders from giving loans.  Depends on which side of the fence you're on for that one.  The possible upside is that we may hash out the problems with the market and make the appropriate reforms, although I wouldn't hold your breath on that one.



Wow!  Thank you for taking the time to respond with such a well thought out reply.  Thank you most kindly.  Your comments definitely helped me to better understand the whole picture.
Be Well, Be Blessed
Mycophilic One


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There is no such thing as a dumb question.  There are just curious people trying to learn something new. 

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Re: $800 Billion Dollar Bailout - What are the risks? [Re: Shins]
    #8966197 -

Shins said:
The more loans the government gives out, the more interest it (you) has(ve) to pay back.

The more interest there is to pay back,  the more  new loans they need to take out to pay the old ones, creating even MORE interest in a never ending exponential cycle of doom.

and extra new loans taken out speed up the process, and create higher amounts of volatility in the markets as the debts soar, and money devalues.

people are thinking "F--- cash, i want commodities" which creates liquidity problems and banks fail, since they are in the business of cash.

as i see it, the biggest risk is the future of banks and finacial institutions,  which dont contribute anything of value to the economy anyways.  all they do is suck suck suck liek a parasite.

but anyways... yeah.



Pretty much mirrors my thoughts. However, aren't commodities going down right now?

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Re: $800 Billion Dollar Bailout - What are the risks? [Re: AdoreChampignons]
    #8967058 -

Quote:
Ya, there's a high downside risk, but there's still the possible benefit of an upside.  For both these directions, it's hard to enumerate the spread.



In the current plan, there's no real upside. In order for the plan to work, the government will overpay for assets. This is a straight-up transfer of wealth from taxpayers to the owners and managers of the banks. The taxpayers get no equity in the banks and pay too much for bad assets - unlike the FNM/FRE/AIG bailouts, there's basically no upside.
Since 700 billion is a balance sheet limit and not a spending limit, taxpayer losses are likely to be 700 billion dollars. Buy a mortgage for 50 c. on the dollar, sell it for 20. Rinse and repeat.

Another risk to the plan is that Paulson (or whoever his successor is) can do literally anything with the money. Think he doesn't own a ton of GS stock and know exactly what they're holdings are? Think again.
In the current plan, there's no oversight, no limits, and judicial review is prohibited.

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Re: $800 Billion Dollar Bailout - What are the risks? [Re: Annapurna1]
    #8968135 -

Annapurna1 said:
i think the risk is that their going to hit us for another $800B next year..and the year after that..and so on.. as long as they know that they can hold the public to ransom...




So if you're Incompetent and screw up and then we bail you out its not a lesson learned?:smirk:


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America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

Barack Obama

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Re: $800 Billion Dollar Bailout - What are the risks? [Re: lonestar2004]
    #8968329 -

:lol:

Seriously though, how are we supposed to punish these executives and their companies, other than let their companies go through the tank? (which would just hurt the company).  We can't send em to jail.  The dems bailout plan limits executive pay for companies receiving help.  That's at least a start.  It's not far enough though if punishment is what you're looking for.


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Discuss Politics

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Re: $800 Billion Dollar Bailout - What are the risks? [Re: lIllIIIllIlIIlIlIIllIllIIl]
    #8968481 -

adjust said:
Shins said:
The more loans the government gives out, the more interest it (you) has(ve) to pay back.

The more interest there is to pay back,  the more  new loans they need to take out to pay the old ones, creating even MORE interest in a never ending exponential cycle of doom.

and extra new loans taken out speed up the process, and create higher amounts of volatility in the markets as the debts soar, and money devalues.

people are thinking "F--- cash, i want commodities" which creates liquidity problems and banks fail, since they are in the business of cash.

as i see it, the biggest risk is the future of banks and finacial institutions,  which dont contribute anything of value to the economy anyways.  all they do is suck suck suck liek a parasite.

but anyways... yeah.



Pretty much mirrors my thoughts. However, aren't commodities going down right now?



Nope, ever since news of the Aig bailout, Banning of shorting on 799 selected companies, and promise of future pailouts, commodities have been making record breaking gains.

gold made the highest gain a few days ago EVER.

commodities lately have been going down due to a rally in the dollar. which now seems to be over with this news.


--------------------
http://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/

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Re: $800 Billion Dollar Bailout - What are the risks? [Re: Ferris]
    #8968672 -

Ferris said:
:lol:

Seriously though, how are we supposed to punish these executives and their companies, other than let their companies go through the tank? (which would just hurt the company).  We can't send em to jail.  The dems bailout plan limits executive pay for companies receiving help.  That's at least a start.  It's not far enough though if punishment is what you're looking for.



Fire them without a severance package. Should be pretty simple for the stockholders to enforce if the government makes it a condition for qualifying for a bailout.

But we all know nothing is going to happen to them. They'll get their life raft and 5 years from now they'll move on to a nice cushy job at the federal reserve or something.


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Life: Main event at the MGM Grand. Murphy's fighting Occam, and you're in the stands.

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Re: $800 Billion Dollar Bailout - What are the risks? [Re: Kodath]
    #8969381 -

That will never happen.

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Re: $800 Billion Dollar Bailout - What are the risks? [Re: Ferris]
    #8969462 -

Ferris said:
Seriously though, how are we supposed to punish these executives and their companies, other than let their companies go through the tank? (which would just hurt the company).



stockholders were aware that there was a risk, sub prime loans in a collapsing market

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Re: $800 Billion Dollar Bailout - What are the risks? [Re: Prisoner#1]
    #8969760 -

I totally agree, and I could weather out a depression, so I wouldn't mind letting it fail.  The intent of that statement was that general opinion clearly disagrees with that option, so I was looking for other possible options.


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Discuss Politics

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Unfolding Nature Shop: Unfolding Nature: Being in the Implicate Order


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