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Re: perhaps fortunately..hillary wins... [Re: wilshire]
    #8443701 -

in the end it will be a fair win on the numbers after the sups make up their minds...obviously it will be more difficult for them to do so if one candidate has more popular votes while the other has more pledged delegates...and that scenario might result in a brokered convention where neither hillary nor obama becomes the nominee...


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"anchor blocks counteract the process of pontiprobation..while omalean globes regulize the pressure"...

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Re: perhaps fortunately..hillary wins... [Re: Annapurna1]
    #8443744 -

Annapurna1 said:
if one candidate has more popular votes while the other has more pledged delegates...and that scenario might result in a brokered convention where neither hillary nor obama becomes the nominee...


yeah, the dems will nominate kuccinich

Great prediction :thumbup:

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Re: perhaps fortunately..hillary wins... [Re: Annapurna1]
    #8443753 -

if hillary has more votes but barack has more delegates, you're right that it may make it more difficult for some of the remaining supers to make up their mind.

even in such an event, do you really think it's likely that clinton will be able to get the roughly 90% of the remaining delegates she'll need? i don't think it is.

and someone other than obama or clinton getting the nomination is just absurd.


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Re: perhaps fortunately..hillary wins... [Re: wilshire]
    #8444187 -

if obama continues to o'bumble against mcclone between now and the convention.. then i would hope the 90% of the remaining sups notice that too and vote for hillary...i should also point out that the results of the upcoming FL/MI conference..as well as the PR primary.. are likely to level the playing field somewhat in terms of how many remaining sups each candidate needs...


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"anchor blocks counteract the process of pontiprobation..while omalean globes regulize the pressure"...

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Re: perhaps fortunately..hillary wins... [Re: Annapurna1]
    #8444520 -

How exactly is he bumbling?

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Re: perhaps fortunately..hillary wins... [Re: Annapurna1]
    #8444885 -

yeah, enough with the "o'bumble" joke you're ripping off.

his name is not o'bama, btw.

where are all these career-ending gaffs that you seem to feel will unseat
a candidate with a delegate lead.


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All I know is The Growery is a place where losers who get banned here go.

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Re: perhaps fortunately..hillary wins... [Re: xFrockx]
    #8445053 -

xFrockx said:
How exactly is he bumbling?


by allowing bush and mcclone to define the parametres of the debate and put him on the defensive...as a result..he is showing weakness in the polls ...the tiebreaker at the convention will be how obama preforms against mcclone between now and then.. and the choice will be very obvious if the current trend continues...


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"anchor blocks counteract the process of pontiprobation..while omalean globes regulize the pressure"...

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Re: perhaps fortunately..hillary wins... [Re: afoaf]
    #8445073 -

afoaf said:
where are all these career-ending gaffs that you seem to feel will unseat
a candidate with a delegate lead.


notwidthstanding any such gaffes...a solid lead in the popular vote for hillary.. combined with a general pattern of weakness on the part of obama against mcclone.. could (and should) override obamas' lead in pledged delegates...


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"anchor blocks counteract the process of pontiprobation..while omalean globes regulize the pressure"...

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Re: perhaps fortunately..hillary wins... [Re: Annapurna1]
    #8445100 -

Your posts are always about "coulds" and other hypotheticals.

If, if, if.

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Re: perhaps fortunately..hillary wins... [Re: Redstorm]
    #8445155 -

when the convention is up in the air (barring a huge upset in PR)..then everything is a necessarily a hypothetical...


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"anchor blocks counteract the process of pontiprobation..while omalean globes regulize the pressure"...

Edited by Annapurna1 (05/26/08 01:45 AM)

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Re: perhaps fortunately..hillary wins... [Re: Annapurna1]
    #8446634 -

would you be willing to bet?

perhaps put our money in escrow and see how this all shakes out.


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All I know is The Growery is a place where losers who get banned here go.

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Re: perhaps fortunately..hillary wins... [Re: afoaf]
    #8446692 -

For one thing, Hillary is not the popular vote leader. She has fewer pledged delegates, fewer superdelegates, and fewer votes. She is down 10 points in the Gallup tracking poll the last time I checked and she has committed gaffe after gaffe and is being mocked by just about everyone. Her campaign's in debt, her delegates are starting to revolt and nobody except a bunch of crazy cat ladies are taking her seriously anymore. She's a freakshow.

As for Obama, I don't know how you say he's bumbling. He's got a great organization with strong local presence, a vastly superior fundraising machine, and is going to be putting a lot of former Republican strongholds in play. By most matchups, he does a Hell of a lot better than Hillary. And considering McCain and him haven't even had a debate yet where Obama could really hammer McCain on his extreme and unpopular positions on the war, healthcare, the GI bill which McCain opposes because soldiers might wanna go to college instead of serving as cannon fodder, etc., etc., I don't see how you can be so pessimistic about his chances.

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Re: perhaps fortunately..hillary wins... [Re: Annapurna1]
    #8446772 -

Annapurna1 said:
as jonathan last (thats the guys' name) pointed out in the link..a 2 million voter turnout is not unknown in PR...

http://www.philly.com/inquirer/opinion/20080523_In_most_inclusive_count__Clinton_has_the_numbers.html

Quote:
In Puerto Rico's last major election, two million people voted. Let's assume that turnout for this historic vote - Puerto Rico has never had a presidential primary before - will be equal to or greater than that turnout.


im also a little skeptical that will be the case in the coming primary...however..if hillary preforms as well in PR as she has with hispanic voters this primary season..then she will only need a voter turnout of 1.32 million to catch obama in the popular vote...


You do realize that the 2 million turnout was because the issue of statehood was on the ballot, right? It wasn't just a primary for an island in which there are no Republicans and Democrats and which can't vote in the general election. Also, there's very little polling data available. To assume that Puerto Ricans are anything like Southwest Mexicans is laughable. Believe it or not, not all Hispanophones are alike.

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Re: perhaps fortunately..hillary wins... [Re: Yossarian22]
    #8446793 -

Yossarian22 said:
For one thing, Hillary is not the popular vote leader. She has fewer pledged delegates, fewer superdelegates, and fewer votes. She is down 10 points in the Gallup tracking poll the last time I checked and she has committed gaffe after gaffe and is being mocked by just about everyone. Her campaign's in debt, her delegates are starting to revolt and nobody except a bunch of crazy cat ladies are taking her seriously anymore. She's a freakshow.

As for Obama, I don't know how you say he's bumbling. He's got a great organization with strong local presence, a vastly superior fundraising machine, and is going to be putting a lot of former Republican strongholds in play. By most matchups, he does a Hell of a lot better than Hillary. And considering McCain and him haven't even had a debate yet where Obama could really hammer McCain on his extreme and unpopular positions on the war, healthcare, the GI bill which McCain opposes because soldiers might wanna go to college instead of serving as cannon fodder, etc., etc., I don't see how you can be so pessimistic about his chances.


Yeah, pretty much.  It is sad to see people cling to the candidate that has no chances.  Last I saw Obama was kicking McPain's arse in the polls (Zogby).  Hillary defines winning by losing.  My only prayer is that she doesn't divide the party more than she has already done.  The Clintons are old and bad news.

So much for "Hillary, the Uniter." :smirk:


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Re: perhaps fortunately..hillary wins... [Re: Yossarian22]
    #8447067 -

Yossarian22 said:
For one thing, Hillary is not the popular vote leader. She has fewer pledged delegates, fewer superdelegates, and fewer votes. She is down 10 points in the Gallup tracking poll the last time I checked and she has committed gaffe after gaffe and is being mocked by just about everyone. Her campaign's in debt, her delegates are starting to revolt and nobody except a bunch of crazy cat ladies are taking her seriously anymore. She's a freakshow.


whose winning the popular vote depends on whether or not FL and MI are included.. also at issue are the caucus votes..which are not officially reported...by current party rules (which will be changed at the upcoming DNC meeting)..obama is ahead 458427 votes...if FL and MI are included..the hillary is ahead 164654 votes.. not including caucus voters (RCP)...the most generous popular vote for obama gives him a 568649 vote advantage...so if hillary preforms as well in PR as she has with continental US hispanics.. then a 1-million voter turnout will be more than enough to close that 568649 gap...i should also point out that crazy old cat ladies form the single largest voting block in the country...

Quote:
As for Obama, I don't know how you say he's bumbling. He's got a great organization with strong local presence, a vastly superior fundraising machine, and is going to be putting a lot of former Republican strongholds in play. By most matchups, he does a Hell of a lot better than Hillary. And considering McCain and him haven't even had a debate yet where Obama could really hammer McCain on his extreme and unpopular positions on the war, healthcare, the GI bill which McCain opposes because soldiers might wanna go to college instead of serving as cannon fodder, etc., etc., I don't see how you can be so pessimistic about his chances.


because you have already lost the election once your opponents have defined the debate on their own terms.. which is precisely what has happened...obama could and should have been hammering mccain on the above issues..but instead mccain is hammering obama on terrorism and "national security"...nor were mccains policy positions by any means unpopular either..and mccains' current control of the debate has made them more popular than they were before...and BTW..your poll numbers are wrong too...


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"anchor blocks counteract the process of pontiprobation..while omalean globes regulize the pressure"...

Edited by Annapurna1 (05/26/08 04:30 PM)

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Re: perhaps fortunately..hillary wins... [Re: Annapurna1]
    #8447170 -

Auto-Summary
The post discusses the popular vote in the 2008 US Presidential election, focusing on the impact of the disputed Florida and Michigan primaries and caucus states. Obama is currently leading with 458,427 votes, while Hillary Clinton has 164,654 votes. If Florida and Michigan are included, Clinton leads by 164,654 votes. The post argues that counting these states and excluding caucus votes would not significantly change the outcome. It also criticizes the inclusion of caucus votes, citing their unofficial nature. The post suggests that Puerto Rican voters may not align with other Hispanic demographics and highlights the importance of defining the election debate on one's own terms. Finally, it notes that McCain's national-security attacks have not been successful and that Obama's campaign has been successful in reaching a diverse range of voters.

Quote:
whose winning the popular vote depends on whether or not FL and MI are included.. also at issue are the caucus votes..which are not officially reported...by current party rules (which will be changed at the upcoming DNC meeting)..obama is ahead 458427 votes...if FL and MI are included..the hillary is ahead 164654 votes.. not including caucus voters (RCP)...the most generous popular vote for obama gives him a 568649 vote advantage...so if hillary preforms as well in PR as she has with continental US hispanics.. then a 1-million voter turnout will be more than enough to close that 568649 gap...i should also point out that crazy old cat ladies form the single largest voting block in the country...


Yes, if the illegitimate Florida and Michigan primaries are counted and the caucus states excluded, then yes, she's winning. However, under no circumstances should Michigan or Florida be counted. For one thing, Obama's name wasn't on the ballot in Michigan. And you can't apportion him all the "none of the above" votes because you have no idea if the voter was thinking of Edwards, Kucinich, Gravel, or just wanted to fuck with the state Democratic party. Moreover, both candidates promised to not campaign in either states and to accept their disqualification and as a result, neither candidate had the opportunity to present themselves to Florida or Michigan voters. Also, telling people their vote won't matter impacts their voting patterns- plenty of people decided to stay home when they would have otherwise voted or decided to vote in the Republican primary instead since their vote actually mattered. To change the rules after the election would be a disservice to all of those who chose not to vote on the assumption that while they wanted their voice to be heard, the election would not do that.

There's no reason to assume that Puerto Ricans will vote like other Hispanics for the simple reason that Hispanics are not all alike. I know we gringos tend to group all brown Spanish-speaking people together, but the truth is that the Cuban community in Florida is very different both politically and socially from the Dominican community in New York which is different from the Mexican community in California. Of course, we'll see, but I strongly doubt that Puerto Rico will overcome the large margins in South Dakota and Montana.

Quote:
because you have already lost the election once your opponents have defined the debate on their own terms.. which is precisely what has happened.


I see no evidence of this. Press reaction to Bush's shameful speech at the Knesset and McCain's subsequent attacks have been pretty negative.

Quote:
obama could be hammering mccain on the above issues..but instead mccain is hammering obama on terrorism and "national security"..


He is hammering him on the issues. McCain's national-security attacks have largely fell flat; for the first time, Americans consider Democrats more reliable on national security issues than Republicans and what McCain is saying has been said hundreds of times before.

Quote:
nor were mccains policy positions by any means unpopular either..and mccains' current control of the debate has made them more popular than they were before...


Yes, they are. Most people would rather have a real health-care system than lose their health insurance benefits and pay hundreds of dollars every time they go to the doctor. The vast majority of Americans want us out of Iraq and McCain promises us an indefinite occupation. The majority of Americans are concerned about the economy and McCain is perceived(rightfully so) as weak on economic matters. He supports the same policies which gave Bush a less than 30 percent approval rating.

As for "controlling the debate" I don't really see it. McCain's been struggling to get any attention and when he does, it's because his campaign advisers are crooked and lobbied for mass-murdering tyrants or because Hagee, his former political bedfellow, is on record saying God sent Hitler to mass-murder the Jews in order for Israel to be created which in turn will set in motion the cataclysmic end of the world. His campaign is attracting little enthusiasm and his fundraising efforts are falling flat. He's being pulled between the extremist base which distrusts him and the moderate wing which is disgusted with the extremism of the Bush administration.

Obama has run a masterful campaign. He is charismatic and has adapted to the political situation with ease. He has battle-tested and well-funded offices in states where McCain has virtually no presence. He is awash in money while McCain struggles. He is competitive in states like Texas, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, New Hampshire, Colorado, the Dakotas, Montana, etc. and while he won't win all of them, he will force McCain to pump desperately-needed cash into defending what should be a cakewalk for a Republican. He isn't going to follow the same "Ohio and Florida" mentality that doomed Kerry and Gore; he is going to pick up a lot of wins in purple states, states west of the Mississippi(where he has done extraordinarily well) and states with high African-American, Hispanic, and college-educated populations.

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Re: perhaps fortunately..hillary wins... [Re: Yossarian22]
    #8447384 -

c'mon...now she's not going to bet me.


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All I know is The Growery is a place where losers who get banned here go.

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Re: perhaps fortunately..hillary wins... [Re: afoaf]
    #8448399 -

Regarding the electability argument, DailyKos has a pretty good analysis: long story short, while the most Clinton-friendly poll does give her more electoral votes, the electoral map is quite different. Under a Clinton-McCain matchup, she has to defend 182 electoral votes in 12 states and only has the opportunity to pick up 105 electoral votes in 10 states. Obama on the other hand only has to fight to keep 129 electoral votes in 8 states. He is competitive in 15 states totaling 166 electoral votes. In other words, he gets to play offense. McCain is going to have to defend a whole lot of territory on a lesser budget and with understaffed, poorly-organized grass root support. Now, here's the thing: May polls are horribly inaccurate- being in one column in May is no guarantee it'll remain there come November. It does however serve to give a basic idea of where a candidate has a reasonable shot in a state. Keep in mind that this poll was also taken at the height of the Rev. Wright idiocy and at a time of peak bitterness and resentment on the part of Clinton supporters. I think as time goes on and many of these same supporters start to realize that they have a choice between a progressive, ideologically-similar candidate and a far-right wing Bush clone who will end the right to abortion, keep their kids in Iraq, and prevent them from having a functioning healthcare system, they'll coalesce around Obama(and even if Hillary manages to fan the flames of resentment and division, I don't see how being a sore loser is an argument in favor of a candidate). If Obama is competitive in a period in which he received the most negative and biased news coverage of all the candidates and in which he faced the sour grapes from almost half of his party and in which McCain got a free ride(this was before the stories about the GI bill McCain opposes, before the lobbyist scandals within his campaign, etc.), he certainly has a shot after getting to put the focus on the issues and after the country starts to see the contest as McCain v. Obama, not McCain v. Obama v. Clinton.

And keep in mind that if Clinton did somehow get the nomination, the process would be blatantly undemocratic and ugly; whereas most Obama supporters, secure in the knowledge that their candidate will be the nominee, say they theoretically would vote for Clinton, I think a lot of people would change their minds after seeing the means through which this could happen, ie. rioting in Denver.

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Re: perhaps fortunately..hillary wins... [Re: Yossarian22]
    #8449164 -

Quote:
Yossarian22 said:Yes, they are. Most people would rather have a real health-care system than lose their health insurance benefits and pay hundreds of dollars every time they go to the doctor. The vast majority of Americans want us out of Iraq and McCain promises us an indefinite occupation. The majority of Americans are concerned about the economy and McCain is perceived(rightfully so) as weak on economic matters. He supports the same policies which gave Bush a less than 30 percent approval rating.



a new rasmussen poll showed heavy opposition to that kind of healthcare...and its not just healthcare...reagans' bullshit seems to  have contaminated every aspect of american thought...unfortunately..these two polls also seem to indicate that bushs' policies are not nearly so unpopular as bush...

however..a CBS  news poll taken last year conflicts with rasmussen on healthcare..but rasmussen is more recent.. and that might mean that the public has changed its mind over the past year on this issue :sad:...

but rasmussen does agree with the other pollsters about the unpopularity of the iraq war...OTOH..the unpopularity of the vietnam war failed to elect mcgovern in 1972.. and it wont work this time around either...which is not to say that obama is another mcgovern...

Quote:
And keep in mind that if Clinton did somehow get the nomination, the process would be blatantly undemocratic and ugly; whereas most Obama supporters, secure in the knowledge that their candidate will be the nominee, say they theoretically would vote for Clinton, I think a lot of people would change their minds after seeing the means through which this could happen, ie. rioting in Denver.


theres nothing undemocratic about declaring the winner to be the candidate with the most popular votes...it will get ugly if theres any dispute over which popular vote they mean.. otherwise the obamaniks have no one but themselves and the MSM to blame because they didnt see the shoggoth in the room...


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"anchor blocks counteract the process of pontiprobation..while omalean globes regulize the pressure"...

Edited by Annapurna1 (05/27/08 02:27 AM)

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Re: perhaps fortunately..hillary wins... [Re: Annapurna1]
    #8449668 -

> theres nothing undemocratic about declaring the winner to be the candidate with the most popular votes...

Rather funny... just a few months ago Hillary & Billary were telling us that popular votes don't matter and that the superdelegates have a responsibility to vote for the experience that is needed in the Democrat party rather than the will of the people. Of course, at the time, Hillary and Co had a large lead in superdelegates while Obama was surging in popular opinion. Now that the tide has turned, all of the sudden Hillary and co want the superdelegates to vote for the will of the people, not for what is best for the party. I keep hearing the Monty Python SPAM song with spin, spin, spin, spin as the lyrics.


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Just another spore in the wind.

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