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perhaps fortunately..hillary wins...
    #8437013 -

ill explain "perhaps fortunately" later...

but first ..contrary to popular myth..hillary will win the democratic nomination...two major reasons are puerto rico...

this link only assumes a 20-point margin for hillary in PR...in past primaries..however..hispanics have voted 2:1 in favour of hillary...there is no reason to believe PR will be any different..which means that hillary should win about 2/3 of the total (=hispanic) vote...(also note the other results from pew ..hillary won TX and CA because of hispanic voters.. the infamous 3AM ad in TX had little if any effect in that state)...

in either case..hillary will have a solid lead in all the popular vote counts after puerto rico...

but even with 2/3 of the PR vote..hillary will not be able to close the delegate count ..a 2/3 win in PR yields 37 pledged delegates to hillary and 18 to obama...a good ballpark estimate for MN and SD is 18 for obama and 13 for hillary...this yields a final PD count of 50 for hillary vs 36 for obama...that equals a net gain of only 14 PDs for hillary...

the pooh-bahs of the party will meet on 2008/05/31 (fortunately for obama..thats thed day before PR) to resolve FL and MI...if the delegates are allocated according to the popular votes..then hillary gets 72 PDs from MI and 93 from FL (NYTIMES ..MI..FL.. while obama recieves resp 56(MI) + 80(FL incl edwards PDs).. which yields a net gain of 29 PDs for clinton...

so even with FL and MI..hillary only stands to gain 43 of the 156 PDs she needs to catch obama...obama..OTOH..only gains 36 new PDs from the remaining 3 states..which will leave him far short of the 2210 needed to secure the nomination...

the upshot of all this is that the primaries will end in a toss-up.. with hillary holding a solid lead in the popular vote while obama clings to a lead of 123 PDs...

what i believe will swing the superdelegates to hillary are the following ..

* polls showing hillary to be a much stronger candidate in the swing states....

* other polls showing that obama voters are willing to settle for hillary.. while hillary voters revenge-vote for mcclone if obama is nominated...

* obama has o'bumbled in the early rounds of obama vs mcclone...not only did mcclone immediately frame the debate on his strong points.. but he has also succeeded in dragging obama into a name-calling match.. the mere existence of which is a huge victory for mcclone even if he ends up losing the name-calling match itself...

if (and this is a medium-to-large-sized IF) these trends continue to the convention...then there is every reason to expect that the superdelegates will swing to over hillary to give her the nod...

granted i was being a bit ruff on hillary in my earlier thread about iran (and i stand by it)...but i say "perhaps fortunately" in the thread title because given that iran is doomed anyway..hillary is nevertheless an infinitely better choice than mcclone...and should the trends outlined above contine coming into the convention..then it is indeed fortunate that that the stronger candidate will be chosen to run agains mcclone...

another possibility..(prolly also more likely than we have been led to believe) is that the convention will determine that neither candidate is viable and broker in someone else...


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"anchor blocks counteract the process of pontiprobation..while omalean globes regulize the pressure"...

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Re: perhaps fortunately..hillary wins... [Re: Annapurna1]
    #8437031 -

There's no way FL/MI will be seated according to how the vote went down.

Will Not Happen.


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After one comes, through contact with it's administrators, no longer to cherish greatly the law as a remedy in abuses, then the bottle becomes a sovereign means of direct action.  If you cannot throw it at least you can always drink out of it.  - Ernest Hemingway

If it is life that you feel you are missing I can tell you where to find it.  In the law courts, in business, in government.  There is nothing occurring in the streets. Nothing but a dumbshow composed of the helpless and the impotent.    -Cormac MacCarthy

He who learns must suffer. And even in our sleep pain that cannot forget falls drop by drop upon the heart, and in our own despair, against our will, comes wisdom to us by the awful grace of God.  - Aeschylus

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Re: perhaps fortunately..hillary wins... [Re: Madtowntripper]
    #8437053 -

the point is thet even if they were (and thats the best result for hillary)..its still not nearly enough for her to close the delegate gap...

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Re: perhaps fortunately..hillary wins... [Re: Annapurna1]
    #8437074 -

I see.

Sorry, it's always pretty hard to try and squirrel out what the fuck you're talking about.


--------------------
After one comes, through contact with it's administrators, no longer to cherish greatly the law as a remedy in abuses, then the bottle becomes a sovereign means of direct action.  If you cannot throw it at least you can always drink out of it.  - Ernest Hemingway

If it is life that you feel you are missing I can tell you where to find it.  In the law courts, in business, in government.  There is nothing occurring in the streets. Nothing but a dumbshow composed of the helpless and the impotent.    -Cormac MacCarthy

He who learns must suffer. And even in our sleep pain that cannot forget falls drop by drop upon the heart, and in our own despair, against our will, comes wisdom to us by the awful grace of God.  - Aeschylus

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Re: perhaps fortunately..hillary wins... [Re: Annapurna1]
    #8437211 -

Annapurna1 said:
the point is thet even if they were (and thats the best result for hillary)..its still not nearly enough for her to close the delegate gap...


I thought you just said Hillary was going to win. If not, what the hell ARE you saying?

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Re: perhaps fortunately..hillary wins... [Re: Redstorm]
    #8437304 -

I'm still trying to figure out when bush accused obama of appeasement.

more double talk.


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All I know is The Growery is a place where losers who get banned here go.

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Re: perhaps fortunately..hillary wins... [Re: Redstorm]
    #8437412 -

Redstorm said:
Annapurna1 said:
the point is thet even if they were (and thats the best result for hillary)..its still not nearly enough for her to close the delegate gap...


I thought you just said Hillary was going to win. If not, what the hell ARE you saying?


i just said that she wouldnt close the delegate gap...not that she wont win...there are three (3) things that the sups will be taking into account at the convention ..

a) ..the pledged delegate count (goes to obama)...
b) ..the popular vote (likely to favour hillary)...
c) ..how obama preforms vs mcclone between now and the convention (leaning towards mcclone => hillary)...

if b) and c) override a)..then hillary wins...

Edited by Annapurna1 (05/23/08 06:18 PM)

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Re: perhaps fortunately..hillary wins... [Re: afoaf]
    #8437414 -

afool said:
I'm still trying to figure out when bush accused obama of appeasement.

more double talk.


:offtopic:...


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"anchor blocks counteract the process of pontiprobation..while omalean globes regulize the pressure"...

Edited by Annapurna1 (05/23/08 06:17 PM)

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Re: perhaps fortunately..hillary wins... [Re: Annapurna1]
    #8437566 -

I really doubt Obama will loose by 20 points in PR. Even if he does, He has nearly 400,000 votes on her right now without Florida and Michigan. PR will not save her there.

If they do count Florida and Michigan, their popular votes won't mean dick because the delegates won't reflect them. Any popular vote estimate including Michigan means about as much as the sperm count in Hilary's cunt, Obama wasn't even on the ballot.

The only way for their popular votes to mean anything would be if they revoted (particularly in Michigan) Personally, I think if Michigan revoted Obama would probably end up winning it anyway. The only reason he lost it in the first place is because the only people who voted in it were too old and delirious to know that it wasn't going to count anyway(i.e. Cunton's base). Obama gets the votes of smart people and college students, who don't like playing secret ballot masturbation, they have better things to do.

Edited by xFrockx (05/23/08 07:08 PM)

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Re: perhaps fortunately..hillary wins... [Re: Annapurna1]
    #8437835 -

doesnt matter who gets the nomination, same monkey with different costumes


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California Has Legalized Child Prostitution

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Re: perhaps fortunately..hillary wins... [Re: Prisoner#1]
    #8437958 -

I really don't think this is true for obama. Either that or he has a really good costume.

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Re: perhaps fortunately..hillary wins... [Re: xFrockx]
    #8438134 -

xFrockx said:
I really doubt Obama will loose by 20 points in PR. Even if he does, He has nearly 400,000 votes on her right now without Florida and Michigan. PR will not save her there.

If they do count Florida and Michigan, their popular votes won't mean dick because the delegates won't reflect them. Any popular vote estimate including Michigan means about as much as the sperm count in Hilary's cunt, Obama wasn't even on the ballot.

The only way for their popular votes to mean anything would be if they revoted (particularly in Michigan) Personally, I think if Michigan revoted Obama would probably end up winning it anyway. The only reason he lost it in the first place is because the only people who voted in it were too old and delirious to know that it wasn't going to count anyway(i.e. Cunton's base). Obama gets the votes of smart people and college students, who don't like playing secret ballot masturbation, they have better things to do.


you missed the point ..PR *alone* is enough to put hillary ahead in the popular vote even without FL and MI..if the conditions in the link should materialize and hillary wins PR by 20 points on a 2-million voter turnout...hillary has typically won by 30-35 points amongst hispanic voters this primary season..in which case she only needs a voter turnout of 1.32 million in PR...but the voter turnout is still the big question mark..if less than 1.32 million voters turn out..then she still doesnt get the popular vote on a 33-point margin...


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"anchor blocks counteract the process of pontiprobation..while omalean globes regulize the pressure"...

Edited by Annapurna1 (05/23/08 11:09 PM)

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Re: perhaps fortunately..hillary wins... [Re: Annapurna1]
    #8438180 -

A 2 million person turnout would be more than half of the entire population of Puerto Rico. A 500,000 turnout would be much more likely, but would still be pushing it.

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Re: perhaps fortunately..hillary wins... [Re: Redstorm]
    #8438363 -

as jonathan last (thats the guys' name) pointed out in the link..a 2 million voter turnout is not unknown in PR...

http://www.philly.com/inquirer/opinion/20080523_In_most_inclusive_count__Clinton_has_the_numbers.html

Quote:
In Puerto Rico's last major election, two million people voted. Let's assume that turnout for this historic vote - Puerto Rico has never had a presidential primary before - will be equal to or greater than that turnout.


im also a little skeptical that will be the case in the coming primary...however..if hillary preforms as well in PR as she has with hispanic voters this primary season..then she will only need a voter turnout of 1.32 million to catch obama in the popular vote...


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"anchor blocks counteract the process of pontiprobation..while omalean globes regulize the pressure"...

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Re: perhaps fortunately..hillary wins... [Re: Annapurna1]
    #8438657 -

Annapurna1 said:
afool said:
I'm still trying to figure out when bush accused obama of appeasement.

more double talk.


:offtopic:...


well?


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All I know is The Growery is a place where losers who get banned here go.

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Re: perhaps fortunately..hillary wins... [Re: afoaf]
    #8438879 -

^

...

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Re: perhaps fortunately..hillary wins... [Re: Madtowntripper]
    #8439278 -

Yep no way MI FL are getting seated by their votes. At least not fully.


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My advice is to find those things that give pleasure and do them often without too much attachment and relax and wait for the show to end.

-Icelander-

I like free markets and all. Truly I do, at least in general, but there needs to be some kind of oversight in recognition of sustainability. Life works the same way, on a bunch of sustainable systems. Why not honor what made us what we are and take some lessons? Nature FTW!

~dill705~

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Re: perhaps fortunately..hillary wins... [Re: Annapurna1]
    #8440348 -

shameful.


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All I know is The Growery is a place where losers who get banned here go.

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Re: perhaps fortunately..hillary wins... [Re: afoaf]
    #8441229 -

With Hilary's latest gaffe I wouldn't be surprised if she lost Puerto Rico.

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Re: perhaps fortunately..hillary wins... [Re: Annapurna1]
    #8443466 -

to clinch the nomination, obama needs 62 more delegates. there are about 295 still up for grabs (he only needs about 21% of them to win).

hillary clinton is not making a run for a fair victory by the numbers. she has other motives for remaining in the race.


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