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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: budmanman]
    #29652135 -

Ray Dalio out with a new (and thoughtful) post, the gist of which sits squarely behind the bitcoin thesis.

Dalio’s hardest-hitting point is that the U.S. may be moving from a large-debt problem toward the early mechanics of a sovereign debt-cycle problem: roughly $5.5T of annual revenue versus $7.5T of spending, ~$1T of interest expense, and about $10T of maturing debt that must continually be refinanced, just as the marginal appetite for long-duration Treasuries appears to be weakening.

His key warning signal is the combination now appearing in markets: long-end yields rising sharply, the dollar weakening, foreign holders reducing Treasury exposure, and Treasury itself stepping up long-bond buybacks.  Because historically that is how the choice between painfully higher real rates and eventual debt monetization/currency debasement begins to emerge.

Absent a course correction, a serious U.S. debt crisis could occur in roughly three years (+/- two), and argues the sustainable escape is reducing the deficit toward 3% of GDP through a politically difficult blend of spending restraint, higher revenues and organically lower rates.

For investors, his implication is unusually explicit: underweight nominal debt, diversify internationally, overweight gold, and hold some Bitcoin, because financial repression/debasement becomes increasingly attractive to governments when outright austerity becomes politically intolerable.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills] * 1
    #29652208 -

This does not appear to be a fluke, this is a genuine inflection pivot after a brutal couple of years for the sector.

   



Note: I'm not advocating chasing the move on day three.  But the sector appears to be back in favor.  Watch for pullback-bounces to key moving averages.

That means the 8 day and 21 day EMAs for moderate momentum based traders.

Nimble, in-and-out intraday snipers should live and die on the 10 minute to hourly charts if you're really going to try to chase this here and now.

Otherwise, note that BTC has busted through its 200 day SMA on massive volume, in a convincing way.  For longer term, hands off traders, above the 200 day is your green light.  Above the 50 day, even better, and watch for retests of that 50 day for opportunities to add.  For altcoin traders, keep an eye on the ETH:BTC chart.  This is also convincingly above its 200 day, for the first time this year after breaking down in January.

As a generalized recap, the key moving averages to watch as potential support for an entry are:
  • 8 day EMA
  • 21 day EMA
  • 50 day SMA
  • 200 day SMA


If an issue is massively extended above all of those MA's, you have to recognize that you're chasing, and should probably pass on the trade unless you're comfortable trading actively and use shorter time frames to control risk (i.e. 10-15 minute or 1-4 hour candles).


All in all, it does look like we may very well just be back! :rockon:

   


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
    #29652223 -

Lil Bubble with a fresh drop! :headbang:



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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
    #29652351 -

geokills said:
   


Less than five hours ago and that looks quaint by comparison...

   


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
    #29652354 -



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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
    #29652468 -

geokills said:
geokills said:
   


Less than five hours ago and that looks quaint by comparison...

   


Horrry shieeet... :whoa:

   


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
    #29652964 -

Is bitcoin pumping or the dollar weakening? Metals surged same time, bond market is fucked. I have been watching the national debt, knowing that it's unsustainable for a while, but markets can be irrational and all, just wondering if this (japan, bond auction, etc) may be a trigger. I am all in anyways, just wish I could understand what was going to happen in 6mo.


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The DJ's took pills to stay awake and play for seven days.

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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: tak]
    #29652967 -

dollars -> BC -> metals

:shrug:


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WEF defector.

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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: tak]
    #29653056 -

Man, it's fuckin' great to see you on here tak!  I know you had your foot in the industry a little bit ago, still working it?

As for the underlying factors, I think Ray Dalio's recent commentary, which I summarized in [this post], is relevant.  The pivot catalyst last week was in fact the US Treasury signaling that they're still happy to monkey around with monetary policy (in this case buying our own bonds in efforts to stabilize yield :rolleyes:) in the wake of the bond market continuing to push yields up last week.

Same ol' story, got lost for a minute amidst the AI-related trade frenzy, but the Treasury events last week, timed together with crypto sector positive chatter from the White House, saw crypto being bought aggressively and we are now definitively back above the 200 day MA on several of the majors, which is the ultimate arbiter of whether you want to be long or not.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
    #29654041 -

imho, cycles, course corrections, and commitments are predictable, short of an act of God.

I have found opportunities to use other peoples' money but felt it in bad form, so far.


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WEF defector.

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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: durian_2008]
    #29654070 -

Speaking of predictable cycles, just saw this yesterday... :sherlock:

   


If this low holds, the bottom should be in.


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General Interest > Money Matters
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