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Hey family,

You all know I've been deep into the crypto-sphere for quite some time.  I still find it a fascinating landscape, and happened across a presentation by Michael Saylor, the outspoken CEO of Microstrategy, a software firm that has pivoted to leverage low interest corporate debt in order to acquire massive amounts of bitcoin over the past few years.

His strategy is not without some very real and substantial risk, but at least for the moment, it has proven genius, as his company has outperformed even the number one supplier to the artificial intelligence industry, NVDA.  He articulates very well in the following presentation, the base case for bitcoin and why it is an incredibly unique global asset, including some speculative conjecture about how it may continue to grow in value over the ensuing years.

I'm a big believer beyond solely bitcoin, as I believe that the underlying trustless, distributed encrypted digital ledger technology can be applied across existing industries to increase efficiency and reduce friction.  An example of this could be in facilitating verifiable identity/authenticity solutions, which in turn might vastly reduce friction in paradigms such as medical records, whereby one would be able to consolidate and digitally self-custody the entirety of your records, in turn able to share+adjunct them seamlessly through variable permissions you can manipulate as required.  I also love the "DeFi" (i.e. decentralized finance) options that have rolled out to date, allowing me to effectively become my own bank, free from regulatory burdens, whereby I am a capital lender, borrower, liquidity provider; and can in turn utilize these mechanisms to generate significant interest on my assets.

But I won't go on anymore about all of that here and now (although please feel free to write back with any questions and/or let's sit down over a meal to chat any time!).  For the time being, I'd simply suggest you give the following presentation an hour of your time, or even less if you use the gear-shaped settings icon to speed up the playback a bit.

<3

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Almost Every Hand Went Up
September 23, 2024
Matt Hougan
Chief Investment Officer

Something remarkable happened during my talk at the Barron’s Advisor 100 Summit, a gathering of the top financial advisors in the U.S.

Last Friday, I had the great pleasure of delivering a keynote address to the Barron’s Advisor 100 Summit, a gathering of the top financial advisors in the U.S. It was the third consecutive year I’d spoken to this group, but my first time on the main stage—thanks in part to the launch of bitcoin ETFs this year.

Whenever I give talks, I like to first gauge the room—to know if my listeners are crypto experts or crypto newbies, supporters or skeptics. So I usually ask the following question: “By a show of hands, how many people in this room own bitcoin or another crypto asset in their personal portfolio?”

When I asked this question to the same crowd two years ago, only a few people raised their hands—maybe 10 or 20%. Last year, it was much the same.

This year, nearly every hand in the room went up. I don’t have an exact count, but I’d estimate at least 70% of the advisors in the room raised their hands.

There’s a very sophisticated technical word that economists use for this kind of year-over-year phenomenon: whoa.

To be clear: When I asked the same room how many of them had allocations to bitcoin in client accounts, very few kept their hands raised. Many of these advisors work for broker-dealers that do not even allow them to buy bitcoin ETFs yet. But that will come. One thing I’ve learned from working at Bitwise for seven years is that advisors virtually always allocate first in their personal accounts. Client allocations typically follow 6 to 12 months later.

There are a lot of bullish signals one could point to today—the Fed’s first rate cut in four years, bitcoin ETFs recently being approved by one of the nation’s largest wirehouses, or the SEC’s recent approval of options on bitcoin ETFs—but to me the show of hands in Palm Beach was one of the most powerful signs of the times. Those of us who live and breathe crypto 24/7/365 might forget, but buying a little bit of bitcoin is incredibly powerful for people. A personal connection breeds familiarity. When you hold and track bitcoin in your own portfolio, fear and dismissal tend to give way to curiosity and, eventually, comfort.

More than anything, what I took from the event is that a wave of the most powerful people in finance are finally allocating to crypto. When it spreads from them to their clients, things could get interesting quickly.

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geokills said:

On a general take, global M2 (money supply) is on the rise and has historically functioned as a shockingly accurate historical indicator. Here's an overlay so you can see how tightly these trade.

   

M2 Leads.
Bitcoin should follow.

   

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M2 continuing its breakout, bitcoin starting to follow suit!

   

SOL closed above its 200 day moving average yesterday for the first time in September.  Higher intraday high today, but might need to grind around here for a bit as we have some pretty solid resistance between $162-$164.

Things are looking good though!  Stay long my friends.