Quote:

Number of Diagnoses of HIV Infection, 2015

Transmission Category-----Adult and Adolescent Males------Adult and Adolescent Females----------Total
Heterosexual contact----------------2,948----------------------------------6,391-----------------------------------9,339


https://www.cdc.gov/hiv/statistics/overview/index.html

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Quote:

Population in 2015: 320,000,000

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Quote:

—Based on the 2013 NHIS data, 96.6% of adults identified as
straight

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Crazy_Horse said:

You need to divide by the number of heterosxuals not the number of people total.

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PatrickKn said:

Percentage of risk in what sense? I think calling that number you've come up with the "percentage of risk in contracting HIV in a heterosexual relationship" would be misleading, in that it only takes account of one factor - sexual encounters with the opposite sex.

It assumes that you have every member of the opposite sex lined up, and that you have the ability to have sex with all of them.

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XUL said:

PatrickKn said:

Percentage of risk in what sense? I think calling that number you've come up with the "percentage of risk in contracting HIV in a heterosexual relationship" would be misleading, in that it only takes account of one factor - sexual encounters with the opposite sex.

It assumes that you have every member of the opposite sex lined up, and that you have the ability to have sex with all of them.

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Well, the way I see it, if I am heterosexual and 9,339 people/year contract HIV, then I have a risk to be one of those people -- even if the risk is very small.

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PatrickKn said:

XUL said:

PatrickKn said:

Percentage of risk in what sense? I think calling that number you've come up with the "percentage of risk in contracting HIV in a heterosexual relationship" would be misleading, in that it only takes account of one factor - sexual encounters with the opposite sex.

It assumes that you have every member of the opposite sex lined up, and that you have the ability to have sex with all of them.

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Well, the way I see it, if I am heterosexual and 9,339 people/year contract HIV, then I have a risk to be one of those people -- even if the risk is very small.

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By the same logic, if you are a heterosexual and 1 person/year contracts HIV in your country, then you have a risk to be one of those people -- even if the risk is very small. If all you're trying to convey with the statistic is that people contract HIV from time to time, then you've succeeded. But you aren't saying much.

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PatrickKn said:

That's not the risk though, that's what I'm saying is misleading. It's the infection rate.

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XUL said:

PatrickKn said:

That's not the risk though, that's what I'm saying is misleading. It's the infection rate.

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So, how do you calculate the risk?

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Crazy_Horse said:

Behavior

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PatrickKn said:

That's way more complex, and I wouldn't know. I don't think you could determine it with just the raw numbers of people infected though, and no matter what you did you wouldn't get a perfect number of an individual's risk to contract HIV.

It's like predicting the weather, it's all based on statistical probability of past occurrences based on a set of variables. You get a percentage based on what has happened according to those variables, it isn't a solid 80% indicator that rain will happen today - it's that with the same variables in play rain has happened 80% of the time. With predicting your risk of infection from HIV, you have even less information at your disposal than the meteorologist does with weather, so it would become harder to quantify.

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Quote:

Synonyms for incidence proportion

Attack rate
Risk
Probability of developing disease
Cumulative incidence
https://www.cdc.gov/ophss/csels/dsepd/ss1978/lesson3/section2.html

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XUL said:

Crazy_Horse said:

Behavior

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But I am only curious as to what the incidence/probability of heterosexual encounters.

Certainly protected sex would make a difference, but the CDC source I found did not list this factor.

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