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Unfolding Nature Shop: Unfolding Nature: Being in the Implicate Order

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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: thirdeyewild] * 1
    #29458195 -

Energy Transfer (ET) has been a nice dividend play for me in the past, and VZ. Despite random bumps in the road, VZ is a company that I actually like because of how they treat their customers. They seem to have good leadership so it’s a boring hold but I think the dividends would make up for it over 20 years.


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notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."

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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Mickalopagus]
    #29459147 -

Firm Capital (FC) pays 7.62%


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: thirdeyewild] * 1
    #29459311 -

Nice the space theme has been a real winner lately, I think that one has a lot more to go especially with SpaceX looking to IPO "soon". In regards to dividend plays; I started accumulating Black Stone Minerals L.P ($BSM) as a natural gas resources play that one pays a pretty nice dividend. $ET mentioned Mickalopagus is also a solid player in that field.

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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Gorlax] * 2
    #29459348 -



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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #29459409 -

I'm also eyeing emerging battery tech.
QS (Quantum Scape) looks interesting, high risk, potential high reward. Might be 3 years before they really take off. I tuck a few dollars a month into them. One of those lottery investments. I'm not betting the bank on them but I think it's worth a slice of my investment dollars.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #29460113 -

Truth be told, I'm getting a little uneasy on markets.

I don't like the large jump in Japanese yields. I don't like the recklessness of US policy adding chaos to the international order. I don't like that this has all been happening in a incremental way for a while and markets stubbornly remain near highs.

Its a fool's errand to predict the future, but with SO many cross currents right now, it's exhausting to try to game, and the sustained flight toward traditional safe havens like gold and silver make it feel all the more tenuous. I kind of just want to sit out, and I'm thinking that on a relief rally tomorrow, I may pull about 30% of my exposure to cash just to stop fretting over the insanity.

Risk feels elevated RHRN, and I'm tempted to take a cautious stance.  They always say to "buy fear and sell greed"... and although there are plenty of reasons to be afraid, the fact that the SPY is within 3% of its all time high indicates to me that there is still a lot of greed in play as well.

I just don't like this setup.

   

   


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #29460163 -

I had an eye on things this morning too - seems to tie into all spaces really. I AM currently 25% cash, and still lost more than I like for one day of trading...

Have pretty heavy exposure to tech right now, and am thinking it might be a decent time to sit in a more stable position for a while - kind of like you said, just to stop feeling compelled tag along with the chaos.


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notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."

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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Mickalopagus]
    #29460915 -

Thinking about going in on $GEMI with crypto in the shitter... again... it's holding up relatively well...

to be determined later in the week.

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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: today mylove]
    #29462356 -

Added to my silver short position

Silver above $100 is absurd

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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: today mylove]
    #29462519 -

Careful you don't over-leverage yourself.  Although silver has indeed gone parabolic and is due for a correction, the trend is still very much intact, and as we've seen time and again, it's the late stages of these moves that are often the most violent (in both directions).  Therefore, insisting that it's "gone up too much" can be a humbling experience, especially if you size in too aggressively.

Take a look at how reliably the 8 day EMA (yellow line) has been holding price for the past couple of months.

   

Easing into a short here is probably ok, but only if you're truly easing in with very small size.

Generally, an ideal entry for a short position is after the primary trend breaks.  In this case, a definitive close below that 8 day EMA -- which did happen once in the above chart on Dec 31st.  However, that date is an outlier as there tends to be lower volume and folks who may be jockeying for end of year tax related selling/re-balancing.  Accordingly, disciplined investors likely won't give the price action as much relevancy on such a date, with similar sentiments for any low volume holidays/half-days, and often enough Fed days, which are difficult to game as the volatility can get hugely elevated where the first reaction ends up reversing after the initial headline and subsequently delayed press conference Q&A get digested by participants.

When you do see a primary trend break under the key/relevant moving average (or well developed support level) on the time frame you intend to short, unless you catch it right as it's breaking through and keep a stop at the top of that candle, the safer and more reliable entry for a longer short swing position would be to wait for a "throw-back" (aka relief rally) that then rolls over at the prior support zone that had initially failed.  If you already entered the position, that's typically a good time to add with more size and confidence, making sure you keep a buy stop above the logical pivot (prior support turned resistance), but is certainly suitable for an initial entry as well.

All the best and good luck!


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #29468888 -

Metals are taking a long needed shit today. I'll be keeping an eye on them looking for an entry point.


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https://www.gofundme.com/f/support-for-renee-goods-wife-and-son

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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Baby_Hitler] * 1
    #29468964 -

Reporting from the other side...

I absolutely did not take your advice geo. I went way too heavy into ZSL, too early and got smushed. This was harrowing. I then spent the next few days averaging in with well over half of my net worth. I even bottom ticked $1.44 in one account. I do not reccomend this. It was akin to a psychedelic experience with much soul searching. This morning I unwound which is now in retrospect way too early. Of which I was aware of but, given ZSL decay I just don't like it. But it was such a harrowing experience I had to end it. Net worth up 15% in total. After losing almost all of everything I gained last year. Which was up 60% from metals.

I also sold my physical metals Wednesday overnight.

My AGQ short margin account is doing great and I will hold that to $1. Shorting levered ETFs is the only way I will do this now. When something gets as silly as this, you definetely do not want to be early, but, once it cracks you are all gravy till the end. Silver is absolutely going to $25 over the next 2 years. Do not touch it.

Gold, would look back to buy in for sure.

I am all cash and going to chill the fuck out for a while now. Thanks again Geo for being sage. I might or might not listen in the future... please don't take offense ha ha.

Love yall

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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: today mylove] * 1
    #29468987 -

It's all good amigo.  Despite the white knuckle moments, at least you survived the trade!  I've been in that position before more times than I'd prefer to admit.  These days, I'm generally happy to leave some money on the table for the sake of my own sanity.  I did however cop a great fill on a tranche of my physical silver earlier this week at $112.59.

One of the colleagues over in the CryptoMarketMentor group tried to short AGQ earlier in the week, got a paper cut when he stopped out at $405.  He was all regret today, and I did my best to remind him:

Quote:
Get your head out of that space ASAP.  You set a trade in accordance with your personal risk tolerance and executed it.  The trade worked, even if it didn’t make you money.

Let the lesson be that shorting parabolic moves is really just a lottery ticket. Most of the time, you’ll probably get cut.

Now keep that head clear from the weight of regret, such that you may identify and plan your next trade.


Managing our emotions is truly the hardest part of any trade. :yesnod:

Thank you for sharing your adventure. :tongue2:


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #29469890 -

geokills said:



I said on Oct 12 that NOC was easy money.  It has proven to be so far.  Right now it has broken out where the last resistance ($637) is now the new support line.

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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: encryptor] * 3
    #29472614 -

Mentor just forwarded me this list of stocks showing good relative strength, worth a gander.

   


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills] * 1
    #29474466 -

Market as a whole turning to shit. I remember this song and dance from Jan last year. trimming all my positions, depending on how the day goes.


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notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."

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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Mickalopagus]
    #29474486 -

Mickalopagus said:
Market as a whole turning to shit. I remember this song and dance from Jan last year. trimming all my positions, depending on how the day goes.


What sucks is it's ALWAYS when the average person is usually leveraged to the fucking hilt. There's never dry powder when it's actually needed lmao.


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"Real knowledge is to know the extent of one’s ignorance." — Confucius

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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Loaded Shaman]
    #29474500 -

I'm, like, 80% dry powder right now.

:dollar:


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https://www.gofundme.com/f/support-for-renee-goods-wife-and-son

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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #29475195 -

Baby_Hitler said:
I'm, like, 80% dry powder right now.

:dollar:


Why the fuck are you sitting so heavy in cash?


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"Real knowledge is to know the extent of one’s ignorance." — Confucius

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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Loaded Shaman] * 1
    #29475390 -

I think everything is way overbought.

Also, Look at the S&P. It's clearly losing upward momentum.



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https://www.gofundme.com/f/support-for-renee-goods-wife-and-son

Edited by Baby_Hitler (02/06/26 01:23 PM)

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Unfolding Nature Shop: Unfolding Nature: Being in the Implicate Order

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