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Unfolding Nature Shop: Unfolding Nature: Being in the Implicate Order

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Why someone with PSI can't win Randi's prize.. * 1
    #12432865 -

He demands such unattainable statistics, it is improbably that someone with psi abilities could even reach his standards.

A p-value in statistics is the probability that the argument is false and the results were collected by chance.  So a p-value of 0.05 means that there was a 1/20 change the results were the results of random chance.

Randi demands a P-value of 0.000001 to prove psi exists.

To put this into context, clinical studies on drugs or anything in science that uses statistics sets 0.01 being a significant result.

basically Randi requires FOUR ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE more statistical proof than is required in the scientific community.

His rationale is that if you want to win his million bucks, you need to show you are right with 99.99999% of the time.  Or are only wrong 1/1 000 000 times.

He is lowering it to 1/100 000 when he revamps the challenge, but this is still absurdly high.

No wonder real researchers ignore his challenge, it requires such a burden of proof it is absurd. Anyone with a knowledge of statistics realizes that these results are unattainable. 

If you showed in a scientific paper any psi effect with a p-value of 0.001, it would be considered a great discovery and significant to the scientific community.  But, it would still be 1000x less than what Randi demands.

The cost of conducting any test, which concluded something to be significant at a p-value of 0.000001 would cost over a million dollars!  So for anyone who understands what he is actually demanding in terms of proof would not even try.

It is no wonder real researcher don't bother with his challenge, it is improbable to win even if you do poses psi because of the statistical significance levels set.  And even then, you would be loosing money because it would be so expensive to carry out the tests.

Quote:
In the ganzfeld telepathy test the meta-analytic hit rate with unselected subjects is 32% where chance expectation is 25%. If that 32% hit rate is the "real" telepathy effect, then for us to have a 99% chance of getting a significant effect at p < 0.005, we would need to run 989 trials. One ganzfeld session lasts about 1.5 hours, or about 1,483 total hours. Previous experiments show that it is not advisable to run more than one session per day. So we have to potentially recruit 989 x 2 people to participate, an experimenter who will spend 4+ years running these people day in and day out, and at the end we'll end up with p < 0.005. Randi will say those results aren't good enough, because you could get such a result by chance 5 in 1,000 times. Thus, he will require odds against chance of at least a million to 1 to pay out $1 million, and then the amount of time and money it would take to get a significant result would be far in excess of $1 million.


http://www.dailygrail.com/features/the-myth-of-james-randis-million-dollar-challenge


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"A human being is part of the whole, called by us 'Universe'; a part limited in time and space. He experiences himself, his thoughts and feelings as something separated from the rest -- a kind of optical delusion of his consciousness.

This delusion is a kind of prison for us, restricting us to our personal desires and affection for a few persons nearest us.

Our task must be to free ourselves from this prison by widening our circle of compassion to embrace all living creatures and the whole nature in its beauty.

Nobody is able to achieve this completely but striving for such achievement is, in itself, a part of the liberation and a foundation for inner security."

Albert Einstein

Edited by Cannashroom (04/21/10 05:49 PM)

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Re: Why someone with PSI can't win Randi's prize.. [Re: Cannashroom]
    #12432890 -

i don't think the dude is asking all that much of people.

he just wants bitches to move shit with their minds. any psychic could do that.

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Re: Why someone with PSI can't win Randi's prize.. [Re: Cannashroom]
    #12433001 -

Someone with PSI wouldn't care about Randi.  They could make billions using their power, they could probably rule the world.

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Re: Why someone with PSI can't win Randi's prize.. [Re: DieCommie]
    #12433025 -

DieCommie said:
Someone with PSI wouldn't care about Randi.  They could make billions using their power, they could probably rule the world.


Shit's probably like Harry Pooter or something.

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Re: Why someone with PSI can't win Randi's prize.. [Re: DieCommie]
    #12433035 -

If your PSI powers were those of the Professor Xavier maybe.

Psi is much more likely to manifest as a subtle phenomenon, not incredibly powerful powers.  And because it is subtle it would be near impossible to prove at such a ridiculous significance.


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"A human being is part of the whole, called by us 'Universe'; a part limited in time and space. He experiences himself, his thoughts and feelings as something separated from the rest -- a kind of optical delusion of his consciousness.

This delusion is a kind of prison for us, restricting us to our personal desires and affection for a few persons nearest us.

Our task must be to free ourselves from this prison by widening our circle of compassion to embrace all living creatures and the whole nature in its beauty.

Nobody is able to achieve this completely but striving for such achievement is, in itself, a part of the liberation and a foundation for inner security."

Albert Einstein

Edited by Cannashroom (04/21/10 06:19 PM)

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Re: Why someone with PSI can't win Randi's prize.. [Re: Cannashroom]
    #12433047 -

Cannashroom said:
If you're PSI powers were those of the Professor Xavier maybe.

Psi is much more likely to manifest as a subtle phenomenon, not incredibly powerful powers.  And because it is subtle it would be near impossible to prove at such a ridiculous significance.


Hamsters come in a lot of different colors, you got chocolate hamsters, vanilla hamsters, dalmation hamsters, etc,

If I took a random hamster and put it under a cup. Do you think a person with psi abilities could guess whether it was a chocolate, vanilla, or dalmation hamster?

That's enough proof for me if they can guess hamster types hidden in cups.

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Re: Why someone with PSI can't win Randi's prize.. [Re: Cannashroom]
    #12433069 -

And, what does what you determine to be psi effect have to do with the Randi challenge?


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"A human being is part of the whole, called by us 'Universe'; a part limited in time and space. He experiences himself, his thoughts and feelings as something separated from the rest -- a kind of optical delusion of his consciousness.

This delusion is a kind of prison for us, restricting us to our personal desires and affection for a few persons nearest us.

Our task must be to free ourselves from this prison by widening our circle of compassion to embrace all living creatures and the whole nature in its beauty.

Nobody is able to achieve this completely but striving for such achievement is, in itself, a part of the liberation and a foundation for inner security."

Albert Einstein

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Re: Why someone with PSI can't win Randi's prize.. [Re: Cannashroom]
    #12433074 -

Subtle phenomenon?  To me that just means it can be counteracted by even the smallest level of S-rays.

Psi is much more likely bullshit.

"We are certainly not to relinquish the evidence of experiments for the sake of dreams and vain fictions of our own devising..."

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Re: Why someone with PSI can't win Randi's prize.. [Re: DieCommie] * 1
    #12433446 -

At least both skeptics AND believers both agree that S-Rays are several magnitudes stronger than B-Rays.


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Re: Why someone with PSI can't win Randi's prize.. [Re: Cannashroom]
    #12433459 -

I think most here agree with you that psi is indeterminate from random chance.


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Re: Why someone with PSI can't win Randi's prize.. [Re: Cannashroom]
    #12433484 -

He demands such unattainable statistics

He demands performance that exceeds what would happen by random chance alone. What's unattainable about that?

You do understand, don't you, that it's a test to see if you have PSI not a test to see if you can score a few lucky guesses, right?


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Republican Values:

1) You can't get married to your spouse who is the same sex as you.
2) You can't have an abortion no matter how much you don't want a child.
3) You can't have a certain plant in your possession or you'll get locked up with a rapist and a murderer.

4) We need a smaller, less-intrusive government.

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Re: Why someone with PSI can't win Randi's prize.. [Re: Diploid]
    #12433514 -

I like it when you answer your own question. :yesnod:

Here is the part all of the TBers miss: Telekinesis only has to be done ONCE. And the PSIers must all acknowledge that fact or be the evil skeptics in regards to the TKers. Then they have crossed over to the Dark Side. :hug:


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Re: Why someone with PSI can't win Randi's prize.. [Re: Diploid]
    #12433516 -

And just to be clear, the test is PROPOSED BY THE CLAIMANT. The JREF doesn't make up the test, the claimant does.

If the claimant makes specific statistical claims and incorporates that into HIS DESIGN, then how can you call the JREF unreasonable for simply applying the test as designed BY THE CLAIMANT.


--------------------
Republican Values:

1) You can't get married to your spouse who is the same sex as you.
2) You can't have an abortion no matter how much you don't want a child.
3) You can't have a certain plant in your possession or you'll get locked up with a rapist and a murderer.

4) We need a smaller, less-intrusive government.

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Re: Why someone with PSI can't win Randi's prize.. [Re: Diploid]
    #12433529 -

You are so silly. You are asking a TBer to apply logic. :bunny:


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Re: Why someone with PSI can't win Randi's prize.. [Re: OrgoneConclusion]
    #12433640 -

Classic TB mentality is back when the JREF required claimants to travel to Fort Lauderdale to take the test, they accused Randi of being unfair because people couldn't afford to travel all the way down here for testing.

Randi responded by allowing people to take a pre-test near where they live, anywhere in the world (and I've repeatedly offered to pay for the plane ticket the rest of the way).

So now the TBs accuse Randi of refusing to test them because he requires they first pass the pre-test, which is EXACTLY the same as the formal test.

It's damned if you do and damned if you don't.


--------------------
Republican Values:

1) You can't get married to your spouse who is the same sex as you.
2) You can't have an abortion no matter how much you don't want a child.
3) You can't have a certain plant in your possession or you'll get locked up with a rapist and a murderer.

4) We need a smaller, less-intrusive government.

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Re: Why someone with PSI can't win Randi's prize.. [Re: DieCommie]
    #12433657 -

DieCommie said:
Someone with PSI wouldn't care about Randi.  They could make billions using their power, they could probably rule the world.



--------------------
We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars.

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Re: Why someone with PSI can't win Randi's prize.. [Re: Diploid]
    #12433660 -

They just want to be declared special and given some free money. Nothing wrong with that.


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Re: Why someone with PSI can't win Randi's prize.. [Re: deCypher]
    #12433667 -

Bill Gates has psi? :whoa:


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Re: Why someone with PSI can't win Randi's prize.. [Re: deCypher]
    #12433670 -

Exactly.

And the fact that there is no discernible long-term skew in casino losses (or other systems of chance like insurance, investing, and such) is pretty good evidence that no one with PSI is secretly using their powers and getting rich.

Casinos year after year after year make EXACTLY the amount of money predicted by statistics theory. Same for insurance companies and even investment banks, the current slew of moronity among their ranks notwithstanding.


--------------------
Republican Values:

1) You can't get married to your spouse who is the same sex as you.
2) You can't have an abortion no matter how much you don't want a child.
3) You can't have a certain plant in your possession or you'll get locked up with a rapist and a murderer.

4) We need a smaller, less-intrusive government.

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Re: Why someone with PSI can't win Randi's prize.. [Re: OrgoneConclusion]
    #12433675 -

Money for nothing, and the chicks for free.  :nono:


--------------------
We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars.

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Unfolding Nature Shop: Unfolding Nature: Being in the Implicate Order

General Interest > Philosophy, Sociology & Psychology
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