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Unfolding Nature Shop: Unfolding Nature: Being in the Implicate Order

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Re: considering shorts in the financial sector... [Re: HagbardCeline]
    #9765091 -

My short on ebay went disasterously bad. I shorted 1000 shares at 12.75 and now it's at 13.91. So what did I do? I shorted another 500 shares. Tomorrow I expect it to be back down and I'll make a nice profit.


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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755

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Re: considering shorts in the financial sector... [Re: Stonehenge]
    #9765445 -

You might get lucky and be able to earn money on a small pullback, but IMO ebay is about ready to get on a roll to the upside. Better be careful with that one!

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Re: considering shorts in the financial sector... [Re: Hotnuts]
    #9765591 -

Ebay will go up but tomorrow it will go down. I cover my shorts and buy long. Then wednesday it goes up, I sell and go short again. Thursday I cover and go way long. Friday it takes off and I'm positioned to profit from it plus I made a load playing the up and down.

That's the plan, anyway. We'll see how well it plays out.


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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755

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Re: considering shorts in the financial sector... [Re: Stonehenge]
    #9766346 -

Stonehenge said:
My short on ebay went disasterously bad. I shorted 1000 shares at 12.75 and now it's at 13.91. So what did I do? I shorted another 500 shares. Tomorrow I expect it to be back down and I'll make a nice profit.


Never add to a losing position.


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I keep it real because I think it is important that a highly esteemed individual such as myself keep it real lest they experience the dreaded spontaneous non-existance of no longer keeping it real. - Hagbard Celine

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Re: considering shorts in the financial sector... [Re: HagbardCeline]
    #9766834 -

HagbardCeline said:
Stonehenge said:
My short on ebay went disasterously bad. I shorted 1000 shares at 12.75 and now it's at 13.91. So what did I do? I shorted another 500 shares. Tomorrow I expect it to be back down and I'll make a nice profit.


Never add to a losing position.


Never say never. Tomorrow I'll look like a hero. I already have a limit order in to cover at 12.55. I should get that easy for a fast profit. Then I buy, sell, etc.


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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755

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Re: considering shorts in the financial sector... [Re: Stonehenge]
    #9767819 -

> Tomorrow I'll look like a hero. I already have a limit order in to cover at 12.55. I should get that easy...

I don't know man, eBay did just pop through its 50-day moving average which also started to trend up today, and it's sitting at historical support from 2002.  Not to mention the Nasdaq has been on fire thanks to leadership from GOOG/APPL/AMZN, and the fact that it doesn't have any bank or housing stocks!  While I think the tech space could see a pullback, I wouldn't be too confident on the short side.  Good to see that you are planning to cover soon, but I don't know if you're going to get a 10% move to the downside on eBay.  You might, but I like to play it safe and would try covering at $13.


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┼ ··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙·· ┼
...╬π╥ ╥π╬...

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Re: considering shorts in the financial sector... [Re: geokills]
    #9769779 -

I look at eBay as a mega pawn shop (sort of).  When people are hurting for money, they eBay some things.  When people don't want to pay retail for the same item, they go to eBay.  Pawn shops around here are doing excellent, and I believe that eBay may have already bottomed out.

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Re: considering shorts in the financial sector... [Re: Texmex]
    #9771605 -

Stonehenge, you're extremely lucky risk aversion pulled indices down, or that bitch would've been on roll to the upside. I'm still trying to figure out what you saw in order to short that one? Both technicals and fundamentals were good for a bull run.

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Re: considering shorts in the financial sector... [Re: Hotnuts]
    #9771714 -

I'm trying to decide if I want to cover today and take a small loss or hold out until thursday. I think it will go down by thursday and I'll do slightly better than I will today. It is down to 13.40 last I saw. I'm making about 250 on my latest short but losing more than that on the other one. If I had only shorted another 1000 shares instead of 500, I'd be OK. I do think it's going up and the day to buy is thursday. Friday might be the day to sell.


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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755

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Re: considering shorts in the financial sector... [Re: Stonehenge]
    #9771873 -

It's a tough one. I think the markets are rather spooked at the moment and could continue to slide throughout the week. Then again, the 7800 level of support sure has been holding rather well in the Dow. I wouldn't be surprised to see a slight rise in equities tomorrow (depending if earnings releases tomorrow don't come in horrendous). Thursday is the retail sales data and could send stocks even lower if terrible. Much worse than is expected anyways. Good luck either way.

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Re: considering shorts in the financial sector... [Re: ZippoZ]
    #9772979 -

Any good advice over here?
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Business_%26_Finance/Investments/Stocks_(A_to_Z)/Stocks_U/forumview?bn=58157&tid=174194&mid=174243


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http://www.theamericanright.com/
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15838446
http://www.climatedepot.com




Edited by Luddite (02/10/09 04:27 PM)

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Re: considering shorts in the financial sector... [Re: Luddite]
    #9772991 -

Obama Was Saying Chains During Campaign Not Change

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_(A_to_Z)/Stocks_U/threadview?m=te&bn=58157&tid=303324&mid=303324&tof=4&frt=2#303324


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http://www.theamericanright.com/
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15838446
http://www.climatedepot.com




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Re: considering shorts in the financial sector... [Re: Luddite]
    #9778906 -

It dipped to 13.25 today and I was tempted but I'm waiting. It went back up to 13.35 but dipped after hours. I have to settle tomorrow because I'm predicting a big rise on friday. I hope to make a nice profit on my short, not just a small loss. And then I'll load up and wait for it to rise. I will probably buy at least 2,000 shares.


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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755

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Re: considering shorts in the financial sector... [Re: Stonehenge]
    #9784881 -

I finally closed it out at 13.05 and made two hundred and change. Not what I hoped for but it's a lot better than losing money. I set my buy order for 12.97 and bought 2,000 shares when it dipped just before closing. I'm now set for the big run up tomorrow. I feel a lot more comfortable with a long position than short. In the long run, it will definitely go up so I can't lose on a long position right now. Short positions will always lose in the long run so I'm glad to be out of that. But 200 bucks is nice to have too so I guess it was worth the nervousness watching it. Who thinks ebay will hit 15 tomorrow?


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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755

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Re: considering shorts in the financial sector... [Re: Stonehenge]
    #9785005 -

> Short positions will always lose in the long run

Not if the company goes bankrupt!


> I can't lose on a long position right now

You can always lose. :tongue:


> Who thinks ebay will hit 15 tomorrow?

Not me. But I've been wrong before. :shrug:


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┼ ··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙·· ┼
...╬π╥ ╥π╬...

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Re: considering shorts in the financial sector... [Re: geokills]
    #9785030 -

geokills said:
phi1618 said:
Here's a short idea: AIPC
American Italian Pasta Company


... I would like to offer a contrarian opinion.  While not well positioned with respect to expansion, I don't think that really matters since growth is not the name of the game these days so much as survival!  For the near term, pasta seems like a good space to be in.  It's a consumer staple and a cheap trade-down product.  As people are laid off and struggling to pay bills, I would be inclined to believe that we (as a nation) will be eating more cheap and belly-filling foods such as pasta.


I hope you got out of this one phi!  If not, you will probably get some sort of pullback soon, though as noted in the following commentary, you probably won't get down to your basis below $25.  AIPC came in with EPS of $1.23 per share, well ahead of the $0.43 expectations last night.  It's up huge today in a down market on double the daily average volume.  It's now above an important high from 2005 of $30.00.  From Steve Gear:
American Italian is experiencing growth in both pricing and volume. Pricing pressures will rule out some short-term increases in product price but volume drivers are in tact. The surge in Pasta is a continuing trend with restaurants as well as consumers seeing it as an alternative food at lower price points. American Italian's growth is being driven by private label brands and the company is shifting resources to more fully support this business. The trend is intact. Long term investors can purchase the stock with confidence. Traders should wait for market conditions to push the stock back to the $26-$27 range.


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┼ ··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙·· ┼
...╬π╥ ╥π╬...

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Re: considering shorts in the financial sector... [Re: geokills]
    #9785138 -

Yeah, yeah, whenever I say "always" or "never" someone will always jump up and say something about that. Always and never are never correct.

However, I see that ebay just shot up to 13.38 at the end of the trading day. That means if I had not closed my shorts, I'd be back in losing territory. It also means the 2,000 shares I bought are now at a profit of $820 if I were to sell right now. That's a nice piece of change but I'm holding out for a real score. I will not take less than $14 a share for those bad boys. I really want 14.50 but may take a fast couple grand and drown my sorrows in that.

If I had bought just 500 shares when it dipped down, I'd be looking at a lost opportunity right now. This is one of those situations in which buying all at once was the best move. I'd also be on the hook for the shorts I made. Ebay is not going bankrupt, you can take that to the bank. It will be over 30 in a few years and I do not want to be hanging onto those shorts when it happens.


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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755

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Re: considering shorts in the financial sector... [Re: Stonehenge]
    #9787660 -

You have to be EXTREMELY careful in equities at the moment. If you can score on dips and rallies that's good. Pay super close attention to technicals and fundamentals abroad. IMO, equities in the US have a ways to go down until there's a solid support level put in. If the 7800/7500 levels can't hold well, look for a dip to 5800 in the Dow. People are getting ahead of themselves with all of this stimulus and bank bailout b.s. There's still an enormous amount of contracting that needs to happen in order for the U.S. economy to hit a bottom. Yes, stocks will prolly bottom before the economy, but that doesn't mean anything. The economy is far from a bottom IMO. I believe that GDP needs to contract by 3 trillion dollars. We have a ways to go. Still a lot of deleveraging left that could and prolly will drag down equities along with it.

Edited by Hotnuts (02/12/09 10:34 PM)

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Re: considering shorts in the financial sector... [Re: Hotnuts]
    #9789981 -

Hot, I agree that we have not seen the bottom yet. I have some money I'm going to invest but haven't transferred it over to my brokerage account yet. Right now I'm just speculating, trying to play the ups and downs for a profit. Been doing alright so far. My ebay hasn't taken off yet today. I expect it to rally some time later. I can wait until tuesday to sell if I don't make my goals before then. I plan to short it on tuesday and make another profit wednesday or thursday.

But I'd say it would be hard not to make money investing in the market now days. Sure, it may go down a little but in 5 years whatever you put money in today is going to look great by then. With stocks at a third of their highs, if they only go back to 1/2 of the high point in 3 years, that's still a nice nice rate of return. Compare that to the 2 or 3% the banks are offering us. Many stocks are paying dividends of that much or more.

The stock market crash is what got me to get into the market. I figure even someone who knows nothing is bound to make money at this stage. The public is spooked and pulled their cash out. Wait until the economy picks up and stocks will hit levels unseen before. Those who got in on the ground floor will clean up. I expect to at least double my investments in 5 years. I may borrow against them to buy real estate which will bottom out before then. But real estate is so much work to keep up. I may buy acreage instead of homes.


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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755

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Re: considering shorts in the financial sector... [Re: Stonehenge]
    #9795089 -

I think the reason ebay didn't take off friday is because it was friday the 13th. Sounds silly but a lot of people are going to back off rather than take a chance on an unlucky day. I'll make my money monday or tuesday and then short the hell out of it.


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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755

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Unfolding Nature Shop: Unfolding Nature: Being in the Implicate Order

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