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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #29394211 -

geokills said:
  Don't get left behind folks, there is a societal level change happening right now.  Get yourself on the right side of it if you can...


Tldr version?

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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: LewDoja] * 1
    #29394302 -

AI and automation is massively fucking with employment and stands to be a major deflationary force >> Governments are going to continue monetary accommodation >> Fiat continues to lose value >> Capital rushes toward risk assets >> Retail has learned how to manipulate markets by identifying highly leveraged (especially short leveraged) tradable assets that can be broken to the upside a la the Gamestop (GME) gamma-squeeze example >> This dynamic will likely play into markets with greater frequency.


All of this is to say:  Be ready for the job market to become increasingly ruthless, with many types of white collar jobs (think "anything that gets done behind a computer") being crushed.  Stay market exposed, especially to technology and crypto, with scalable energy infrastructure and power storage being a key beneficiary of the new paradigm buildout.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #29407722 -

Markets are a bit sporty, but in context, the arrows here highlight prior instances of heavy drawdowns to the 21 week EMA on the S&P500 index.

   


Takeaway: It typically bounces.*

    *Not a guarantee




The volume today is a bit ridonkulous however, which is particularly discouraging given that we closed near the low of day.

   


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #29408189 -

I like what you're saying Geo and it all sounds valid except for the very asset classes/sectors you are mentioning:

Tech and crypto are going to be liquidated IMO, people are absolutely getting themselves into trouble right now. 3 years of buy the dip, complacency and leverage... It's just a matter of time until trouble comes but I am not stupid enough to say I know when. Maybe soon (maybe even now?), maybe later?

But given the magnitude of the money on that side of the boat, the sure bet beyond the silliness will be that gold will be worth much more. For all the issues you mention, they will need massive fiscal stimulus... China needs out of UST... Gold fever is a thing.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/OM3eJM7M/?symbol=SP%3ASPX%2FTVC%3AGOLD

Basically expecting SPX/GOLD to head much lower. By that point gold will be the silly one, and then you can switch back to stocks at a much lower valuation

https://yardeni.com/charts/sp-500-400-600-blue-angels/

S&P 500 Probably up to 25x first which is what you're mentioning. Hard to fight it

But longer term we go back to 10x

So sleep in gold to make it easy. And no bitcoin does not substitute. Great returns until now but sadly I think the party has been well attended and people are assembling elsewhere. Trump family involved in crypto = hard fade

Trump messing with rule of law works in gold's favour too. If Trump was out I would seriously reconsider but I think he's the main driver behind the path I am postulating here

Warning: Mostly though, don't listen to me, I'm crazy and have a terrible contrarian streak in my personality which is mostly an unprofitable thing. I can't help it though

Geokills is a much clearer thinker than I and has the track record to prove it



TLDR hold gold until S&P 500 is at 10 P/E and then buy something like SSO or DDM and never look at your brokerage account again*

*see bolded warning

--
Edit 1:
Article which has heavily influenced my views:
https://themarket.ch/interview/russell-napier-we-are-headed-towards-a-system-of-national-capitalism-ld.12718

Quote:
Buy equities that no one wants today, and own much more gold. Conventional wisdom will declare the quantities you own of these assets risky while accepting that the assets you own are not particularly risky. This is the position that has always rewarded investors when a major structural change has come along.


Edit 2: American AI exceptionalism is smoke and mirrors


Edited by today mylove (11/21/25 07:27 PM)

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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: today mylove]
    #29408225 -

Appreciate the thoughtful post today mylove!

On crypto, it's the wild west to be sure, and there is still quite a bit of leverage in the system.  However, bitcoin RSI is now at one of the lowest levels in its history, volume today is set to be tremendous, and we hit a liquidation pocket overnight as well as probed an unusually light volume zone.  There is still a dearth of volume around ~$75K, so I wouldn't necessarily rule out another dip to $70K for a full and complete flush, but if prices can hold up today, we could print some very high volume bullish hammers across all the major crypto assets, which would be indicative of at least a short-term bottom.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #29408249 -

Yes I wouldn't be shorting down here in the hole. But something like MSTR is now = AMC post 2021. Game over

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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: today mylove]
    #29408266 -

Tether buying gold says it all

Gold is money.

(I'll hush now. I need to come in and rant every now and then. I have strong views about markets. My partner falls asleep when I start talking about them, I don't really get a chance to express them).

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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills] * 2
    #29427273 -

Buying some GEMI just under $14.50 this morning, bit of a bottom fish trade, but supported by HUGE volume yesterday after a really prolonged post-IPO bleed out.

   


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #29431546 -

Added to some positions in my long term acct. pretty heavily weighted towards tech, but it’s been working so why not keep at it. All the big names really (NVDA, GOOG, META, AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, ASML, AVGO)

Also added IBIT, and BSOL. Maybe 40% of my total allocation target to date.


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notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."

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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Mickalopagus]
    #29431550 -

Add AMD to that list too. I had been cold towards this stock but maybe inappropriately so. Interesting side story, an old fantasy football league mate is one of the co-owners of a company called Tensorwave, which uses AMD chips and has made some successful partnerships that have sent both TW and AMD in a positive direction.

I unfortunately was not a candidate to invest in his company (would probably be semi-retired and on a boat if I could’ve), but think there’s a play on them without direct exposure through AMD, with some room to grow still.


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notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."

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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Mickalopagus]
    #29431695 -

I like Coreweave here ticker $CRWV, it's very volatile with ATR at 7.43, price/sales is significantly below peer averages in the broader software/cloud space (around ~9× vs peer ~28×). This week is more mechanical flush everything with OpEx Friday so not worried about this price action, lot of institutional accumulation has been happening. If you look at the market-on-close orders they've been very buy-side heavy so almost all the downside is done intraday as they shill AI bubble narrative and accumulate the weakness (impressive how they target ur amygdala and how effective it really is at getting retail to panic sell). Not advice as always and this one can implode of the market really dives

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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Mickalopagus] * 1
    #29431696 -

Stickin' with leadership, ain't nothing wrong with that.  My 401k is all tech leaning, and it's done great.  Best part is I haven't had to think about it, it just takes care of itself.  A good reminder that it's oftentimes best to grab the winners and then get out of your own way.

That GEMI trade I posted Friday was a bad entry, fortunately I only took a small starter position.  It does appear to be stabilizing, but the initial high vol move was immediately rejected, so I think this one, while it may grind higher, isn't going to do so with the rapid upside acceleration I had intended to underpin the trade.

TSLA printed a fresh all time high today, on the heels of news that their robo-taxis are now testing without human oversight drivers in the cabin.  A step in the right direction to be sure, and a potentially quite major revenue driver, but what gets me most excited about TSLA are their Optimus robots and general leap into AI operated robotics.

Having come to use AI on a regular basis for many knowledge work tasks, I am consistently impressed by the technology, and have to believe that it's only going to rapidly accelerate, and its integration into robotic systems is going to be nothing short of a groundbreaking paradigm shift for humanity.  Given TSLA's existing scale and distribution channels, and of course their willingness to take big leaps, I could see them doing exceptionally well over the next decade or two.


PS.  On BSOL (Solana), here are some tidbits I've witnessed cross the newswires this past week:
  • Most blockchains would falter under a sustained internet-scale DDoS attack, causing transaction halts and network disruptions, but Solana withstood a massive assault peaking at 6 terabits per second over the past week—the fourth-largest ever recorded—while maintaining normal operations per on-chain data. This resilience demonstrates Solana's robust architecture.

  • Firedancer, a project three years in the making, has officially gone live on the Solana Mainnet. It has been operating for 100 days on several validators and has successfully produced 50,000 blocks. This marks a significant milestone, as prior testing demonstrated Firedancer's capability to process over 1 million transactions per second. Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko acknowledged the transition, viewing it as the platform's move beyond its extensive beta phase.

  • Coinbase announced it will support DEX trading for all Solana tokens without requiring individual listings, streamlining access for users. This integration leverages Solana's high-speed network for decentralized exchanges. In the crypto space, such features could increase trading volumes on SOL-based DeFi platforms, reducing barriers and enhancing liquidity for emerging tokens.

  • For the second year running, Solana has been named the most-followed blockchain ecosystem worldwide in 2025, according to CoinGecko. The platform dominated the narrative mindshare, capturing 26.79% and ranking ahead of competitors like Base, Ethereum, Sui, and BNB Chain. This ranking is based on an analysis of CoinGecko's global website traffic (excluding bot traffic) collected between January 1, 2024, and December 14, 2025.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills] * 2
    #29432175 -

Found this interesting, Cathy Wood's $ARKK innovation accumulation heatmap for Q1-Q3 2025.  I like the subject matter...

   


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #29432243 -

oof rough morning over here, these option heavy weeks never pan out well

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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Gorlax]
    #29432365 -

Damn! A day too early.

Glad I am incrementally adding but would’ve been nice if that were better timed!


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notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."

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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Mickalopagus] * 1
    #29432381 -

I've moved my adds down to close to minimum size until momentum starts to flip/shape up. I "think" at this point sellers are exhausted in tech so if there's going to be more damage I believe it will start showings its face in other areas. Worst case we can see ~$55 on $CRWV which would be the bottom of the range I got marked. I still think fair value floor is $70-80 with almost everything going wrong for them. Sometimes the market overlooks long-term potential when short-term macro headwinds/flows fog the windshield. IMO

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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Gorlax] * 1
    #29432581 -

You're correct to be protective here.  Even though the major equity indexes are hanging in there, the momentum has dried up.  I recognize a few major headwinds...

  • 1) Japan raising rates at the end of the week is a big one for global financial liquidity derived from the yen carry trade.

  • 2) Big military buildup in the Caribbean indicating some measure of increased military intervention is likely on deck.

  • 3) Broken technical picture (aka "life under the 50 day" - or in crypto's case "life under the 200 day" :sad:)

  • 4) Recession fears from the likely bumpy road of AI integration in the economy, which is already putting pressure on hiring, and I suspect will continue to put HUGE pressure on the job market, requiring some measure of major long-form policy change (i.e. big uncertainty - markets hate uncertainty).


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #29435770 -

geokills said:
Found this interesting, Cathy Wood's $ARKK innovation accumulation heatmap for Q1-Q3 2025.  I like the subject matter...

   


Cathy made a comeback. She still terrifies me.


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"The Rolling Stones will break up over Brian Jones' dead body"    John Lennon

I don't want no commies in my car. No Christians either.

Simulacrum
The truth which conceals that there is none

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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Brian Jones]
    #29435873 -

^ same


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"What appears impenetrable to us does exist, manifesting itself in the deepest wisdom and the most radiant beauty" Einstein

"The conservatives of 70 years ago would be outraged at what has come to pass. It embodies everything they took up arms for to defeat"Asante


:kratom:

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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: pslyke] * 1
    #29436072 -

RIVN and TSLA both looking good here.  RIVN pivoting to AI integrated full auto drive features within the next ~12 months increased interest in the stock.  TSLA has already had that story running for a while (and way behind schedule), but is finally running "robotaxis" without human drivers in their test markets.  Of course, TSLA also has a bigger potential story with their Optimus AI powered robotics being a major driver of future growth that could dwarf their auto business.

Not a bad close on SPY and the Q's Friday.  Everything will be quieting down now due to Christmas and New Years holidays, so it might be hard to trust the action over the coming week or two, as volume will likely be low.


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