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Registered: 09/25/00
Posts: 2,276
What if it IS the Economy?
    #1997676 - 10/10/03 04:46 PM (14 years, 6 months ago)

What if it IS the Economy?
Mullings.com ^ | 10/10/2003 | Richard Galen

This was the lead graf at 2:00 pm yesterday on the Wall Street Journal's on-line page:

"A year to the day after major indexes hit their bear-market lows, Wall Street was looking a lot more jubilant. Investors bid stocks to new highs amid a wealth of encouraging news about the jobs market, retail sales and earnings."

What? You didn't hear about this?

I'm shocked.

To review the numbers one year ago, on October 9, 2002 the Dow Jones Industrials closed at 7286. The NASDAQ index closed at 1330.

Yesterday the two averages closed at 9680, plus 2384 (about a third higher) and 1912, plus 582 (up about 45 percent) respectively. The Dow's close was the highest in 22-months, since June 2002.

Dear Mr. Mullings: The Nobel Prize for Economics was awarded yesterday. You didn't win. Would you please move this along?
Signed, Adam Smith

Stay with me here. Although the indices closed off their session highs as profit takers moved in during afternoon trading, the driver behind the early surge yesterday were employment numbers.

Combined with the numbers from last Friday (again, according to the WSJ) "In addition, the four-week moving average of claims -- which irons out weekly volatility -- stood at an eight-month low of 393,500 last week."

When the stock market plummeted early last year the Democrats were all over the Sunday shows complaining that 401k plans were now 201k plans.

Now that the markets are in a major recovery, you don't hear anything from our friends on the Left about the state of the stock markets. In fact, you haven't heard about the stock markets from the Democrats in quite a while.

Instead they have (as we say in Your Nation's Capitol) moved the goalposts by saying its all about jobs, jobs, jobs.

Day after day on chat shows Republicans are asked "how will the President do if the job situation doesn't improve?" or some variant on that theme. The Democrat du jour who is on against me typically becomes almost jubilant over the prospect of unemployment figures creeping up through seven or even eight percent.

I then say something like, "Let's turn it around. What if the job picture improves - as most economists expect it to. What will the Democrats have to run on then?"

What follows is typically described in official transcripts as (Crosstalk).

More good economic news. A panel of 53 economists ?


This is an example of economic humor: If you laid all the economists in the world end-to-end they still wouldn't reach a conclusion
End Sidebar

? of 53 economists predicted the Gross Domestic Product would grow by about 4% next year (up from about 1.4 percent in the first quarter of 2003). Why? According to the Journal, "Many economists attributed the strength in consumer spending to the latest federal-tax reductions."

Memo to Howard Dean: Please do NOT change your message. Repeat it and repeat it: Reverse the Bush tax cuts. Reverse the Bush tax cuts.

The WSJ piece about the economy went on to say, "Some economists said they were caught off-guard by the extent of the stimulus created by the cuts."

Guess who wasn't caught off-guard. George W. Bush.

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Two inch dick..but it spins!?

Registered: 11/29/01
Posts: 34,239
Loc: Lost In Space
Re: What if it IS the Economy? [Re: wingnutx]
    #1997737 - 10/10/03 05:03 PM (14 years, 6 months ago)


You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity. What one person receives without working for another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for that my dear friend is the beginning of the end of any nation. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it. ~ Adrian Rogers

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Registered: 10/11/02
Posts: 7,571
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Re: What if it IS the Economy? [Re: wingnutx]
    #2000799 - 10/11/03 07:10 PM (14 years, 6 months ago)

The Economy is imaginary.

Insert an "I think" mentally in front of eveything I say that seems sketchy, because I certainly don't KNOW much. Also; feel free to yell at me.
In addition: SHPONGLE

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Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 03/06/02
Posts: 23,016
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Re: What if it IS the Economy? [Re: Strumpling]
    #2000935 - 10/11/03 08:11 PM (14 years, 6 months ago)

Aren't we all.


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Ganja Goddess

Registered: 02/13/99
Posts: 1,617
Re: What if it IS the Economy? [Re: wingnutx]
    #2005774 - 10/13/03 06:03 PM (14 years, 6 months ago)

Have you also heard the statistic about how 90% of the market doing well is because of people who make more then 100k a year? Damn the rest of us.

Yeah, or maybe this is real life and that article is just fantasy

"But here is another situation where the United States is spending more than it makes. The current account deficit -- the gap in the United States' trade in goods and services with the rest of the world -- has risen to about 5 percent of the total economy. That's as high as it's ever been. The chart of the current account gap as a percentage of GDP, incidentally, looks almost exactly like a chart of consumer credit as a percentage of income.

So the world economy is leveraged to the U.S. consumer. And the U.S. consumer is leveraged to the hilt. There are now more registered cars on the road in the United States than there are licensed drivers. America's energy needs, per capita, are nearly twice that of Great Britain's. At some point the U.S. consumer's creditors -- which is to say the rest of the world -- may have second thoughts about how their money is being used. Kasriel compares it to a corporation that uses its stock and bond proceeds to throw big parties, rather than invest them in its future.

Clearly something has to give."

Caught in a landslide......The Rapid Run on Dollar Assets

The outgoing European Central Bank president, Wim Duisenberg, said last week that he was praying that what he called the unavoidable fall in the dollar would be gradual. The plunge has resulted not only in generating the pressures for the appreciation of these currencies but also in the rise of the gold price and rising capital inflows into China (see China's currency: Renminbi and ruin?, Sep 30), as well as the rising Japanese market.

"The dollar is the currency of a country with a huge deficit on its balance of payments, close to 5 percent of its GDP [gross domestic product],"Duisenberg told reporters. "You can afford this one year, two years, maybe five years, but sometime there has to be an adjustment of its currency," he said. "We hope and pray that this adjustment, which is unavoidable, will be slow and gradual. We will do everything in our power to make it slow and gradual."

No escape from reality...The Rich World's Disappearing Jobs

Open your eyes, Look up to the skies and see,
I'm just a poor boy, I need no sympathy,
Because I'm easy come, easy go, Little high, little low,

Any way the wind blows doesn't really matter to me, to me.


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Registered: 09/25/00
Posts: 2,276
Re: What if it IS the Economy? [Re: PsiloKitten]
    #2005784 - 10/13/03 06:07 PM (14 years, 6 months ago)

The US is actively trying to devalue the dollar right now.

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Ganja Goddess

Registered: 02/13/99
Posts: 1,617
Re: What if it IS the Economy? [Re: wingnutx]
    #2008682 - 10/14/03 05:17 PM (14 years, 6 months ago)

Oh, yeah.. I see.. that makes perfect long term sense.


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