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Stock Market going up or down?
    #15380119 -

I say its going down in the long term. What i see happening over and over is the market will drop a bunch and then people rush in thinking that like in '09 it will just pop back up again. Not in todays economic reality it wont. I look for it to steadily go down with the occasional bubble from optimistic people thinking its time to get in.

The world economy overall is terrible. Europe is in a slump it may not be able to get out of. I see no way to avoid a major recession. We aren't supposed to use the word depression but its coming too. If this is a recovery i'd hate to see a real recession.

Not only countries but states and municipalities are near bankruptcy. This is true in usa and we are supposed to be the #1 world power. With the imminent collapse of the euro, the dollar looks strong in the short run. In the long run the only way they can keep paying bills is by printing money. This leads inevitably to massive inflation. The cost of all goods and services will skyrocket. Those on a fixed income are going to be put in the street or starve, maybe both.

The winners in all this will be those who have most of their assets in durable goods such as gold, real estate, ownership of oil or mineral production, etc. Others who will escape part of the destruction will be those who invested in a skilled trade or an in demand profession. Taking on debt right now to acquire some of those assets will turn out to be a smart move provided you can keep up the payments. Debt will tend to shrink in value as money sinks toward wastepaper value. This is how we will pay off the national debt and how that student loan will become much easier to pay.

Mortgages on homes will follow the same path. The amount owed will shrink in step with inflation and the value of the home will rise accordingly. The same could be said for borrowing to buy gold or silver but lenders do not like to do that. Home mortgage rates are around 4% for 30 years. Its a great investment, imo, and you get to live in it so its not sterile like precious metals.

Thoughts?


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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

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Re: Stock Market going up or down? [Re: Stonehenge]
    #15380830 -

Only if enough people think like you.  Stock Market/Economy is all perception.  Too many people in the world that mentally have no fortitude, with far too much money than their minds warrant.

edit: Give me a bit and I'll make a more detailed post.

Edited by Pacmanpth (11/16/11 09:39 PM)

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Re: Stock Market going up or down? [Re: Pacmanpth]
    #15383522 -

It's not all perception, pac. Dividends paid make a big difference. Otherwise its just a ponzi scheme. A lot of stocks dont pay any dividends at all, they just reinvest any profits. I guess people buy those stocks thinking they will go up and up and they will be able to sell at a profit. But only if they can find someone willing to pay the price.

If a stock company isnt making a profit, then the share price will go down once investors realize the truth. What we are seeing now is that a world wide recession is in place. They fudge the numbers to avoid calling it that. The european union almost fell apart trying to prop up greece and greece's fate is still far from certain and will likely fall at some point. Italy is having the same problems and it's about 4 times the size of greece. The eu can't prop italy up or portugal which is falling into the same pattern.

What happens when eu and the euro fall apart? The usa economy is faltering even with stimulus money and the money has run out. If we lose our trading partners in europe that will be another nail in the coffin. Oil just went past 100 again and that adds costs all the way down the line.

Japan which was once the third biggest economy is on the skids due to fukushima. Their reactors are in melt down and no one knows for sure what will happen in the future. There are concerns that it will blow up. Even a non nuclear explosion such as what occurred shortly after the tsunami would blow out huge amounts of highly radioactive debris. This will poison not only japan but will travel the world. By any reasonable measure, fukushima is worse than chernobyl.

I say the dow will drop below 10k soon and one day will be below 8k in todays money. The one thing that will prop it up and keep it above 5k is inflation. Our govt has already printed up a bunch of play money and spent it. This was called quantitative easing qe1 and then there was qe2. Some say it will have more sequels than rocky. The only way we can pay off the national debt is if inflation wipes most of it out. With the politicians hand on the printing press, what do you think will happen?


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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755

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Re: Stock Market going up or down? [Re: Stonehenge]
    #15383775 -

Stonehenge said:
It's not all perception, pac. Dividends paid make a big difference. Otherwise its just a ponzi scheme. A lot of stocks dont pay any dividends at all, they just reinvest any profits. I guess people buy those stocks thinking they will go up and up and they will be able to sell at a profit. But only if they can find someone willing to pay the price.

If a stock company isnt making a profit, then the share price will go down once investors realize the truth. What we are seeing now is that a world wide recession is in place.


It is all about perception.  If people are optimistic and prudent, they'll invest money in companies that they support that make solid products and have good profit margins.  If people are fearful of the market direction, they will either not invest, make poor investment decisions, or short.  All three of these things stagnate and cripple the markets and economy, as does spreading of the belief that they are what should be done.

Whether or not a company is making a profit is irrelevant, there will always be companies that are going to turn profits and survive market slumps.  Preaching fear to other investors is no way to help the markets or the economy.  While people are busy typing away how the stock market and economy is crashing, they could be researching and discovering companies that will survive and thrive in a down market, investing in them, and sharing their findings with others.

Ponzi scheme?  I'm sorry, but if that's the case, then you're saying every company on the planet is a ponzi scheme, and that is far from the truth.

Where you put spend your dollar matters, whether it be investing or as a consumer.  Supporting companies simply to make a buck is foolish, supporting companies because they continually turn good numbers, provide products or services that are beneficial to society, and give back to the community, on the other hand, is wise.

This isn't the detailed post I said I would make, just wanted to make a brief comment.  I'll post here again later tonight.

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Re: Stock Market going up or down? [Re: Pacmanpth]
    #15384215 -

>Whether or not a company is making a profit is irrelevant

If you are investing to help social causes, then it may be irrelevant. Very few people invest mostly for that reason. They want a return on their money and if a company never makes a profit, it will not give them their money back let alone a profit. Are you a socialist or communist? You seem to look down on the profit motive.

>Ponzi scheme?  I'm sorry, but if that's the case, then you're saying every company on the planet is a ponzi scheme, and that is far from the truth.

Nope, never said that. If you are going to make stuff up there is no point in discussing anything.

I have no gripe with the investor who looks for companies that respect the environment and do not seem to be doing evil. But if he does not make a profit he will not be around long. The profit motive is king. Back in the old days the p/e ratio was considered important. If it was more than 12, the advice was to stay away. Now days stocks often have a p/e of 25 or more and some pay no dividend at all. Even though the market is down, even though it fell every day this week, it still has a lot of fluff in it. I look for it to drop even more in the years ahead. Only inflation will keep it from dropping below 5000


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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

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Re: Stock Market going up or down? [Re: Stonehenge]
    #15384258 -

Stonehenge said:
If you are investing to help social causes, then it may be irrelevant. Very few people invest mostly for that reason. They want a return on their money and if a company never makes a profit, it will not give them their money back let alone a profit. Are you a socialist or communist? You seem to look down on the profit motive.



Pretty sure I included profit margins in my requirement for investment as well.  Investing with just profit margins and financial reports in mind does not guarantee success, you need more filters, some of which data is not widely available.  As you play with different ways of selecting your stocks, you'll notice patterns on what seems to increase chances of success for investment.  This will only work well if you approach the matter of investing in companies with an open mind, no presumptions, and no emotions.  Making money is easy, making money and having that process have a positive impact on the world you live in and are a part of is more impressive.

Socialist or communist?  Never, not even close.  Taxes are too high as is.  If people feel like being generous, that's their own choice.  I do think that currently many people are selfish and greedy, and need to make better choices with how they spend their wealth, but communism and socialism simply don't work well, mutes incentives to do anything.

Edited by Pacmanpth (11/17/11 03:42 PM)

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Re: Stock Market going up or down? [Re: Pacmanpth]
    #15386870 -

As I'm sure Geokills would agree, when investing and in doubt of a play you are making and it gets to a certain point and you can't tell what the count is  anymore cause you're too drunk on accident, just double it. Double down on 9, 10, or 11%.

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Re: Stock Market going up or down? [Re: Pacmanpth]
    #15388299 -

We are stuck in a vicious cycle. People aren't spending because they are either out of a job or afraid they will be soon. Companies aren't hiring because people aren't spending. Tax revenues are down because of unemployment and low company profits. So govt can't start spending money to jump start the economy. Govt is basically broke and would be shut down long ago if it was a business.

Then you have europe which is in a similar situation. It looks like the eu will fall apart soon and the euro faces trouble. This makes our situation worse because they are our trading partners. The price of oil is up which increases costs for everyone. I already mentioned japan which is sitting on a nuclear meltdown. They too were one of our major trading partners. Unlike the depression of the 30's, govt is strapped for cash and has massive debt to pay. This depression  will be longer lasting. The only way out is to discover cheap fusion power or some miracle like that.


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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

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Re: Stock Market going up or down? [Re: John Nada]
    #15388771 -

StevenMichael said:
As I'm sure Geokills would agree, when investing and in doubt of a play you are making and it gets to a certain point and you can't tell what the count is  anymore cause you're too drunk on accident, just double it. Double down on 9, 10, or 11%.


:lolwut:



The market looks to be in dire shape here.  How quickly the technical landscape can change, as only three days ago I was anticipating a breakout to the upside.  Now, we have broken down from the constructive pattern and if we don't hold 1200 on the S&P, I will be anticipating a longer term downtrend coming, as a decisive break of 1200 will mark the October highs on the S&P as a lower high with respect to the early & mid summer highs.

Alternately, a bounce here at around 1200 will indicate a higher base of congestion and indecision between 1200 - 1300 (vs the prior base of 1100 - 1225), while we witness the unfolding saga that is the EU crisis.  That's still not very encouraging, and really, until we move back above 1300 (or fall a lot first into a lower base), it is wrong to hold a bullish bias.  Short term traders may take advantage of this volatility to both the long and the short side, but even with five years of trading experience under my belt, I am finding this market increasingly difficult to navigate.  Unfortunately, this constant back and forth churning of the market will perpetuate a crisis of confidence that can further erode optimism for longer term upside, as many retail investors will simply throw their hands into the air and say "fuck this", all while some hedge funds and brokers will blow themselves out by making leveraged bets that go awry due to the unpredictable and pervasive headline risks stemming from issues of sovereign debt (e.g. MF Global).

The idea of taking out low interest loans to finance personal property to live in is very sound.
The idea of taking out low interest loans to finance income property is not without significant risk.
Gold is coming back into an area of interest.  At $1500 - $1600/oz, I will continue to be a buyer.
Until we see a move above 1300 on the S&P, or a big whoosh lower, it is wrong to hold a bullish bias.


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┼ ··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙·· ┼
...╬π╥ ╥π╬...

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Re: Stock Market going up or down? [Re: geokills]
    #15390067 -

I think that guy got this mixed up with playing blackjack. :wink:

I have to agree with you, geo, although you know i use a different system. I'm more looking at the long term. Those charts are fine for short term provided we don't have constant streams of bad news from around the globe. Its like trying to spear fish at the bottom of the stream when someone keeps tossing boulders in the water.

What i think happened last week was the optimists and the people disgusted with bank returns tried their luck at the market. As usual, soon as the mullets are in, the hammer comes down. I could see taking a long term bear position on this market. Long as you don't have to cover when an occasional week like last week comes along.

Buying r/e to live in is the best move right now. The interest is deductible and rates are low. If inflation never comes, you still need a place to live and payments are going to be less than rent in most cases. Only buy income property after you have your own home taken care of. And i don't mean a 5% down mortgage on your home and then looking for income property. That leaves you overextended in case of job loss or whatnot. If your home is mostly paid for and/or your income is very unlikely to drop, you could consider income property.

The best way to do it, imo, is find a place in foreclosure and fix it up. If you can do a lot of the work yourself, that is a plus. If you have to find a remodeling guy in the phone book, that is a negative. I went the phone book route and various ads and got a bunch of bids on remodeling a kitchen. Best price was around $1500. I found a guy through craigs list using my own ad, had him do some minor work on another house, saw he was good and let him do the kitchen paying him $200 a day for labor. Well, that kitchen ended up costing me a tad over $1000 including materials. That was counter top, sink, faucets, cabinets above and below and resurface part of the kitchen wall and paint the wall. And stain the cabinets.

I have a good carpenter who will do stuff for $15 an hour, i use him for the little stuff. But thats the way to make money in r/e. Buying a house all prettied up and perfect will cost you top dollar. I figure to get back 20% or so of my investment each year with 1 month vacant every year.

Gold has treated me well, i just wish i bought more when it was cheap. I was telling everyone this is the time to get in. I too may buy more when and if it hits 1500 or so. The only sure thing is that oil will go up, and up, and...


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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755

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Re: Stock Market going up or down? [Re: Stonehenge]
    #15391234 -

Higher. Stocks are just overbought at the moment, but the consolidation is nearing over. The break of the triangle's support, like what has happened with S&P, happens a lot with that pattern when it occurs in an overbought situation. A false breakout to the downside (bear trap) and a textbook pullback into the triangle. It's pulling back now into it's support, now resistance and price will soon start it's last leg up to test all time highs. Don't worry. All this horse shit going on with Europe, is noise. For the moment, anyways. I know it seems batty, but get ready to take on more risk.

Edited by Hotnuts (11/19/11 12:06 AM)

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Re: Stock Market going up or down? [Re: Hotnuts]
    #15394364 -

HN, what i'm hearing here is the classic discordance between the chartists and those who look at broader economic issues. You are clearly one of the true believers in charts and theory. I'm more of a practical person. The "noise" in europe is not going to go away, its going to get worse. It seems clear that greece can not be saved and will default. The country is being torn apart by austerity measures and its still not enough. Italy and portugal are headed down the same path. This means at the minimum a collapse of the eu and major financial panic. To have a whole country, a member of the eu, go belly up is a catastrophe that will reverberate through the world. What then when italy goes under?

It seems like the chart people want to look at things in a vacuum. Reality does not exist in a vacuum, it is the interaction of a multitude of factors. You admit the market is overbought, i say its worse than that. What about p/e ratios? You didn't even address that. When the market was around 6k or 7k, the p/e were more normal. Then the irrational exuberance took over and too much money was dumped into the market. Todays prices are way inflated. I look for a collapse back to around 6 or 7 dow. It might over correct and go below that. There might be some good pickings then. But how to tell when we've reached the bottom? Mark my words, bulls will be sorry in this market. Grab a buck when you can because long term is bearish.


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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755

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Re: Stock Market going up or down? [Re: Stonehenge]
    #15402077 -

Dow is down over 300 at this moment. Those who went short are doing well. I suspect it was news from europe or perhaps the failure of the debt panel? There are so many bad things waiting to fall it could have been anything.


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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755

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Re: Stock Market going up or down? [Re: Stonehenge]
    #15402246 -

Stone, I agree with about 95% of what you have been saying, the one disagreement would be real estate. We both agree that the cost of living is increasing everyday now, and that means that there is less money available for the home purchase or mortgage payment.

Property taxes are higher, higher heating and energy cost, higher food, insurance, health care, ect. The amount of money now left over is much smaller than just 5-10 years ago. My father owns a apartment complex, he now requires even higher income to meet approval, despite the rent remaining the same.

If you can say that wages are going to increase in the future, then real estate has a chance, but we have flat wage growth and higher unemployment today, thus real estate has high risk and low reward.

Gold and silver will remain the only safe havens, we are experiencing a global currency devaluation. What most main stream investors fail to understand is how cheap gold is relative to the amount of paper currency, still trading at a 80% discount, so gold still has a huge amount of catch up to do.

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Re: Stock Market going up or down? [Re: qman]
    #15402452 -

I agree about the gold and silver. Also other precious and non precious metals. It would be nice to own 100 tons of copper right now. The only drawback being storage and transport. Or lets say own a copper mine with easily recoverable amounts being 100 t and another few 100 t's that would cost more to extract but still profitable at today's prices. See, that's where it leads to r/e in general. Anything solid, anything they can't produce or print up more of has to rise in price. Same for oil, same for coal, eventually tar sands and shales will become like gold.

Why buy a home when wages are flat and un-emp is high? Because you have to live somewhere. If not paying a mortgage, you are paying rent. By looking around you can find a deal where the mortgage will be lower than rent. Even more so if you fix it up a little. If you have good credit and a down pmnt, its foolish not to consider it. Not only that but the mortgage debt itself will become less as inflation hits. Anyone who doesn't see inflation on the horizon probably doesnt see the crooked and greedy politicians with their hand on the printing press.

Wages will go up, right now un-emp is keeping them down. Start your own business and set your own pay. Almost any job you are doing now can become a side job working for yourself. When the side job gets bigger, you may quit the main job and make more money.

If you don't have a steady job better hope mom and dad will keep a light burning

Those with cash in the bank or stock account better put it in something solid. Nice thing about gold is you can store a lot in a safe dep box. If gold drops some more i'll buy more. If the foreclosure overhang in my area breaks loose, i'll buy more real estate. I have some up for rent right now. I'm not worried, winter is the season here.

Anyone hear what the bad news was that sent the dow into a tailspin? I think they have bad news lined up in a queue so that it doesn't all hit at once.


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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755

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Re: Stock Market going up or down? [Re: Stonehenge]
    #15402885 -

market always moves sideways

-Cherokee


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I have considered such matters.

SIKE

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Re: Stock Market going up or down? [Re: Stonehenge]
    #15402919 -

Yes, I am sure there some very good real estate opportunities out there, if you can get the price low enough, the risk is reduced. My main concern is that we have inflation in all the wrong places (food, energy, taxes) and still flat wages. In order to have higher wages, we have to have lower unemployment and strong economic growth. We currently have over capacity in the work force, and thus no pressure on wage growth.

In the 1970's we had high inflation and higher wage growth, most companies were providing 10-15% raises per year to maintain workers, that is a pipe dream and today's economy. Today's workers are now competing on a global level, Chinese and Indian workers will work for 1/10 or 1/20 the wages of a US worker with no benefits, and do the same work.

I hope and wish you are right about inflation flowing into wages, but the evidence points in a different direction, thus a much lower standard of living for the middle class. It's true everyone must have a place to live, but not everyone has the luxury of living by themselves if desired, many are now living in situations that they can afford, and would love their own place, but the economic reality makes it impossible.

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Re: Stock Market going up or down? [Re: Stonehenge]
    #15404461 -

Stonehenge said:
HN, what i'm hearing here is the classic discordance between the chartists and those who look at broader economic issues. You are clearly one of the true believers in charts and theory. I'm more of a practical person. The "noise" in europe is not going to go away, its going to get worse. It seems clear that greece can not be saved and will default. The country is being torn apart by austerity measures and its still not enough. Italy and portugal are headed down the same path. This means at the minimum a collapse of the eu and major financial panic. To have a whole country, a member of the eu, go belly up is a catastrophe that will reverberate through the world. What then when italy goes under?

It seems like the chart people want to look at things in a vacuum. Reality does not exist in a vacuum, it is the interaction of a multitude of factors. You admit the market is overbought, i say its worse than that. What about p/e ratios? You didn't even address that. When the market was around 6k or 7k, the p/e were more normal. Then the irrational exuberance took over and too much money was dumped into the market. Todays prices are way inflated. I look for a collapse back to around 6 or 7 dow. It might over correct and go below that. There might be some good pickings then. But how to tell when we've reached the bottom? Mark my words, bulls will be sorry in this market. Grab a buck when you can because long term is bearish.



I'm not just a chartist, i'm a timer as well. And I know what scares/satisfies markets. I'm in total agreement with the EU, debt panel and pretty much everything bearish, folks are talking about. But, there's always noise in between large market tops/bottoms and we're still in the noise now. This will end badly, but not yet.

Trust me on this one. Get ready to take on risk. As early as tomorrow, maybe. Very violent market rally just ahead. A big one!

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Re: Stock Market going up or down? [Re: Hotnuts]
    #15406053 -

Hotnuts said:
...there's always noise in between large market tops/bottoms and we're still in the noise now.


I can't be certain on much of anything, but I am fairly certain on that!


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┼ ··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙·· ┼
...╬π╥ ╥π╬...

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Re: Stock Market going up or down? [Re: geokills]
    #15413291 -

Those who took my advice to go short and take various bear positions are counting their profits now. Those who stubbornly stayed long, are paying the price and will continue to pay. I agree the market is treacherous and will not be surprised to see the usual rallies bravely play out and then fall even lower.

Gold does not seem to have decided if it will go with or against the market. Some time back it was going against but now its weakly following the market. This
gives us a chance to take a position in gold. Because lets face it, fiat money is on the way out and has been for well over 100 years. I saw a graph, many of your have seen it too, that showed the dollar has lost 98% of it's value over the last 100 years or so. People would gladly work all day for $1 because you could buy a couple bags of groceries for that and with the change get a shave and a haircut.

The eu is falling apart before our eyes and out of the 170 some odd "major" countries in the world, only perhaps 4 or 5 are doing well. Where will china send it's cheap crap when everyone is broke? People ask why they keep buying our treasuries when obviously the dollar is as shaky as a currency and treasuries pay little to no interest? It's because if not, we wouldn't buy their junk and same for a lot of countries that sell their treasuries to china. Unlike the bank which can foreclose on your house, china has to wait hat in hand to be paid. We'll pay them all right, we'll pay them in inflated dollars that it will take a wheelbarrow full to fill your tank with. China knows this too but it's the only game in town.

The irrational exuberance that was seen in the 90's onward will deflate and may become irrational fear. When google is back down to 100 and appl is down to 80 we can all swoop in and make some money.

People ask wont gold go down too? No, the main reason its dropped recently, imo, is because they tightened up margin as much as they could to stop speculation. But when the inflation looming on the horizon becomes inflation here and now, there will be a stampede to gold like never before. I think 5000 will be hit and passed and gold will never look back. But that 5000 or 10,000 per oz will still buy you about what 1700 bought today. Better than being broke.


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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

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