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Unfolding Nature Shop: Unfolding Nature: Being in the Implicate Order

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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #29475513 -

I threw $20 at micron technology and $10 at SanDisk for the hell of it.

Ive been told to buy as much XRP as possible.

What do you guys think?


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #29475820 -

From my view, I don't think you're wrong to be cautious B_H... Truflation, which uses forward looking indicators to factor inflation (versus the Fed's backward looking indicators that it uses to set the funds rate), is showing the steepest drop-off in inflation that it might ever have shown.  This is consistent with the AI displacement theory, and more generally, when forward looking inflation drops this quickly, we likely have a recession on the horizon.

   

Things are priced very richly (well, maybe not crypto anymore -- I'm feelin' that pain you better believe)... and so a conservative stance here does make some sense.  Especially given the unpredictable nature of US driven policy under the current administration.  There's just a lot up in the air right now, and I think risk is skewed to the downside in most sectors.

Interestingly, crypto has often led these pivots, which corroborates the concern, given that crypto has taken a hell of a beating lately.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #29475858 -

I have a question for anyone who wants to answer or has a good answer.

If you had 75-100,000 dollars what would you do with it to ensure you make money?


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: alienprincess47] * 2
    #29475886 -

alienprincess47 said:
I have a question for anyone who wants to answer or has a good answer.

If you had 75-100,000 dollars what would you do with it to ensure you make money?


Depends on the timeline and what you want the money to be used for, your risk tolerance etc.

If I was going to just let it sit for retirement, 60% in an american total market index fund, 40% international... it'd most likely be at least $650,000+ by retirement with some minor tweaks along the way. Or just tuck it away in a target date fund and never look at it

If it was short term, right now I'd just keep it in a high yield savings account and get a couple hundred in interest each month... but that's me and I barely know what I'm doing. Things are just too shaky right now

I used to invest pretty much solely in S&P index funds (along with random gambles for fun) but with the Trump chaos last year I rebalanced to include a lot more international with good results, end of last year I started putting more into small caps and those are doing well too for now

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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: alienprincess47] * 2
    #29475912 -

Listen to feev's... he's on the right track.  Ultimately, the world order is changing.  Tremendous uncertainty in the air.  Old guard won't give up easy, so keeping yourself exposed to assets (and not fiat dollars) is likely the right choice, but as to where and how to do so, I'm honestly in a bit of a spin.  Still heavy crypto and tangible real estate.  The former has absolutely gutted me over the past four months.  The later, keeps payin' the bills...


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: alienprincess47] * 1
    #29476099 -

I am somewhat in the same boat - but with Roth IRA funds. So really looking at it through a 15 year lens.

I think the right move is to set and forget it, like feev/geo give nods to. But man from 2020-2025 I found success moving and shaking, so the primary urge is to keep juicing the market for all I can in that tax advantaged account.

Need to come to terms that there can be a terrible double edge to actively trading, that I haven’t really experienced, and maybe don’t need to if I just park in a fund mentioned above.

As it stands now, am 60% cash in that account, exited largely yesterday, and with unfortunate timing with the giant rebound today.

That being said, I’ll share my positions, one that I worked out with CHAT GPT, and eventually plan to be more set and forget - once the market feels more palatable - to me right now, it doesn’t. FYI, I asked Chat to refine current holdings I had, which was a ton of tech, and add more stable components that also might benefit from a continued boom in the sector, but could also weather downturns in it as well.

• Eaton - ETN
• Schneider Electric - SBGSY
• Constellation Energy - CEG
• NextEra Energy → NEE
• Duke Energy → DUK
• Dominion Energy → D
• You bought: DLR
• Microsoft → MSFT
• NVIDIA → NVDA
• Broadcom → AVGO
• Apple → AAPL
• Amazon → AMZN
• Alphabet → GOOG
• Meta Platforms → META

Also have a bunch of SPY

Keep in mind I just trimmed most of these and actually exited CEG fully. But this is where I plan to re-enter and stick around in for a while.

Another caveat: I had a later conversation with chat gpt and it was like yeah this is a lot of singles, maybe just go for a fund :lol:


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notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."

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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Mickalopagus]
    #29476255 -

Anyone here into dividend investing?


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"Real knowledge is to know the extent of one’s ignorance." — Confucius

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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #29476583 -

Some interesting metrics here.  Firstly, this past week saw the highest amount of shorting the stock market, ever.

   


To top that off, corporate insiders have been selling U.S. equities at the quickest rate since 2021, raising fresh questions around market confidence and future performance.

   



Usually, that huge amount of short interest would have me taking the contrarian side and expecting a major rally.  But we're still a stone's throw from all time highs in the equity market, and AI-efficiency disruption seems to have "deflation" written all over it (see the Truflation graphic I posted yesterday showing the steepest dropoff in forward looking inflation that I've ever seen).

This all just has me fairly nervous and lacking any major confidence in market direction RHRN.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills] * 2
    #29478822 -

Same thinking, I'm almost always long bias and make sure the bear cases prove themselves to me but something feels off about the non-farm payrolls that's supposed to come February 11, 2026 (previously was supposed to be last Friday 02/06/26 but was moved from brief government shutdown). The market is expecting 70,000 jobs created which just seems out of reach. All the private data is showing a slowdown in labor but the issue there is it takes time for that to show up. I'm sitting mostly cash waiting for Wednesday to blow over. All this price action has been dominated by market flow and CTA's... avoiding the volatility drag.

I'm still leaning into real economy stuff like materials, industrial, commodities, and energy... there's 2 things happening at once.. we have manufacturing actually accelerating while services is slowing down so you can literally have a dual dynamic where major indexes lag while at the same time we have a broadening bull market in other sectors for once..

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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #29479040 -

geokills said:
Truflation, which uses forward looking indicators to factor inflation (versus the Fed's backward looking indicators that it uses to set the funds rate), is showing the steepest drop-off in inflation that it might ever have shown. 

   



Still dropping...

   


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills] * 1
    #29480978 -

Silver is back to shorting range. Adding with every 5$ increment in price. Shorting SLV outright now, keeping it chill and fun this time lol

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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: today mylove] * 1
    #29481018 -

I just hold XEQT and a Fidelity tech mutual fund now. Buy and hold. Got rid of riskier assets. They've both grown significantly in the last couple years. I bought a bunch of XEQT Monday and it's up everyday since including a nice jump today.

Just lump sum purchases when possible. Holding for 20 years but I still check it often.

:popcorn:

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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Loaded Shaman] * 1
    #29482365 -

Loaded Shaman said:
Anyone here into dividend investing?


Liking HPQ on the long side. No idea how much lower it goes. It's a Ben Graham value play if Ive ever seen one

Energy and REITs on the long side too

Looks like I do like dividends

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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: today mylove] * 1
    #29483040 -

today mylove said:
Loaded Shaman said:
Anyone here into dividend investing?


Liking HPQ on the long side. No idea how much lower it goes. It's a Ben Graham value play if Ive ever seen one

Energy and REITs on the long side too

Looks like I do like dividends


:kenthumbup:

This guy gets it! Started in 2021 and it changed my life, no hyperbole.


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"Real knowledge is to know the extent of one’s ignorance." — Confucius

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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Gorlax] * 1
    #29484211 -

Looks like the non-farm payrolls was a huge beat vs consensus. There's a big argument over how its being collected and the adjustments with the birth/death model but I've found it useless to try to poke holes in these data points. Same thing happens with each administration. However, they basically revised all job growth for 2025 to nothing  so that in itself is a massive tell in my opinion. The one thing it definitely does is give the Federal Reserve more cover to not cut rates as quickly as market participants would like.

One of my models is flagging Stagflation with a chance to drop into Deflation but I'm weighting more towards more of the same, slow/low growth with inflationary impulses sticking.

If you check the tape from Friday 02/13/26, Utilities started breaking out violently with $XLU. There's also some strength building in long duration bonds via $TLT and proxies. I'm sticking with most my original "energy/commodity/material" positions but have reduced most my high beta exposure and set limit orders for the prior mentions as a ballast just in case we start to steer towards that path.

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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #29489211 -

Is this list publicly available and kept current somewhere?  NOC is now $724.83.  I've now been trimming and putting that money into AMD, PLTR, and SOFI.  Thoughts?!

- list of stocks showing good relative strength

Edited by encryptor (02/19/26 01:41 AM)

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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: encryptor]
    #29489822 -

Unfortunately, I don't maintain such a list and don't have a link to any public form for it.  The one I shared was forwarded to me through the StockMarketMentor.com platform (which spawned CryptoMarketMentor.com and OptionMarketMentor.com)... hands down the best subscription services I've come across to teach aspiring traders how to wrangle their emotions, read a chart and trade the market that's in front of them, as well as keep seasoned traders in sync with real time opportunities and continued training/discipline.  I've been a member for 20 some years!


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills] * 1
    #29498399 -

Man..can someone simplify this in lamen terms?

So should I put the money in a roth ira? What do I do exactly? Im really new to all this so I need it dumbed down, please :confused:


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: alienprincess47]
    #29498407 -

Hi there, can answer, but for better results, would like to know:

Do you have access to a work sponsored 401K? Does your work offer a match to your contributions, and if so, do you already contribute to that plan?


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notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."

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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: alienprincess47]
    #29498552 -

alienprincess47 said:
Man..can someone simplify this in lamen terms?

So should I put the money in a roth ira? What do I do exactly? Im really new to all this so I need it dumbed down, please :confused:


Definitely a Roth if you're not 401k eligible


The best motivation I heard was every dollar you put in now will on average double about 3x in 30 years. So if you max it out with 7500, you're essentially gifting 45k to your future self

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Unfolding Nature Shop: Unfolding Nature: Being in the Implicate Order

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