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Offlinelonestar2004
Live to party,work to affordit.


Reged: 10/03/04
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2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years?
      07/01/05 01:00 PM




Jul. 1, 2005. 01:00 AM

http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/Content...ol=968350116795


2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years?

We are in the grip of a disturbing malaise, marked by poor leadership and a consequent lack of vision


RICHARD GWYN

Canada today resembles a marathoner who has run with quiet competence to near to the head of the pack but who now is seized by doubt about whether he can sustain the pace ? indeed, whether he might have to drop out entirely.

This doubt isn't about where we are today. It's about where we may find ourselves the day after tomorrow ? in around 2020, the year the Toronto-based Dominion Institute has chosen as its measuring stick for Canada's future prospects and which is examined in today's special Toronto Star editorial.

In private conversations, the question, "How do you think things will be for Canada in 2020?" repeatedly uncovers a striking, and disturbing, note of underlying pessimism.

No one says that by 2020 we will have shown ourselves and the world that the 21st century will belong to Canada, in an echo of the famous forecast made (wrongly) by prime minister Wilfrid Laurier about the last century.

Instead, quite a few individuals express concern that there will be a good deal less to Canada by 2020 than there is today.

This pessimism isn't based upon an assumption that Quebec will leave. Indeed, some would argue that Quebec has already separated in almost all practical respects so that the last step of symbolic separation is no longer necessary. It is based even less on the assumption that Canada will fall apart and fall into the United States (which actually wouldn't want us).

The character of this attitude, so far as it's possible to guess at, appears to be based on the view that Canada is developing in a way that its whole is becoming increasingly less than the sum of its parts.

That, in ways not easily definable, we are year by year collectively diminishing ourselves.

It doesn't exactly help that Maclean's magazine, hunting for reasons why Canadians should celebrate their achievements this Canada Day, offered that several Canadian actresses are making it big on American television, and that the only North American bishop named as a possible pope was a Canadian (by only one newspaper ? and, anyway, he didn't make the cut).

The most explicit expression of this pessimistic attitude was contained in the recent declaration by the Ottawa-based Council of Chief Executives, which represents 150 of the country's largest corporations, that Canada has become "a nation adrift."

The Dominion Institute's 2020 project, which assumes that in a decade-and-a-half Canada will undergo substantial change, possibly much of it not at all for the better, is another expression of that attitude.

There is also the sense of resignation ? unlike the outpouring of patriotism inspired in the past to similar threats to national unity ? that seems to be the result of the return of the issue of Quebec's possible separation, first by the likely electoral success of the pro-sovereignty Bloc Qu?b?cois in Ottawa and then by the probable election victory of the Parti Qu?b?cois in Quebec City.

The national mood just seems to be confused, cynical and crabby.

At first glance, it's hard to find good reasons for any of this. By many of the basic indicators of national health, we're doing fine.

Our finances are in better shape than any member of the G8, and are bettered in very few industrial democracies (Australia, for one).

Our economic expansion, now a decade old, is one of the longest in our peacetime history. If the United States falters, so will we. But we still have some important reserve assets: Our finances are in the black and our housing price bubble is a lot smaller than almost anyone else's.

In one of the most demanding tests of national character ? the ability to integrate large numbers of newcomers from all over the world ? we have done better by far than any other industrial democracy, with only the U.S. as a serious rival to our performance.

We did undergo a severe blow to our national confidence in the almost-lost Quebec referendum of 1995. But that was a decade ago. By contrast, Americans are having to cope with the national trauma of a potential second Vietnam in Iraq, while Europeans have had their confidence shattered by the crushing rejection of the new constitution of the European Union.

So why the national mood of malaise and self-doubt?

We lack any sense of a national vision, of a collective goal, of a national project. Without it, it's no wonder that many feel that our whole is becoming progressively less than the sum of our parts.

The root source of the malaise is the national government. In saying that the nation is adrift, the CEOs were really saying that Ottawa is adrift.

The sponsorship scandal has hit Canadians like a blow in the solar plexus. The worst is over, but we'll be hurting inwardly for a long time.

Here, in a modern, well-educated, international-minded, increasingly urban society, we have had, spilling out from our TV screens, the entrails of an orgy of corruption and bribery that might even have caused John A. Macdonald, famed for his 19th-century Pacific Railway scandal, to blush.

It's put into question the integrity of our public service (how come no one in Ottawa uttered a peep of protest?) and it has spattered all federalists in Quebec.

Prime Minister Paul Martin had nothing to do with it, although another scandal that's just broken ? the issuing of temporary residency permits to would-be immigrants as election bait to ethnic groups ? happened on his watch.

Despite these scandals, the Liberals are almost certain to win the next election. Which makes us a one-party state ? but a one-party state with a "Mr. Dithers" as its leader.

Few prime ministers have fallen further from higher up than has Martin, once universally admired as the Conqueror of the Deficit.

Martin doesn't lack a vision. Instead, he has about a hundred of them. So, effectively, he has none. And so neither do we.

He's only an individual. There are deeper political concerns.

Despite another $41 billion thrown at it by Ottawa by way of the provinces, the future of Canada's health-care system is in doubt. Uncertainty about whether our one-tier system can last has been magnified by the Supreme Court's ruling that private medical insurance schemes are legal unless waiting times are "reasonable" (whatever reasonable may mean).

A sideways slippage to a two-tier health-care system ? a forecast that in private many are already ready to make ? would put into question the whole complex web of interrelationships in the decentralized, diverse, regionalized, polyglot, ("post-modern" is the modish term), society that Canada has become.

One-tier health care, that is, universal service available to all regardless of salary or status, has become the tangible expression of our common citizenship.

If it goes, and if in addition Quebec has already half left, and if Alberta has more money than it can possibly spend on itself while many other Canadians have a lot less than they need, and if our native people are now self-governing (with, for instance, their own legal systems), are we all still full citizens of the same country?

And if not, should Canada more accurately now be called a commonwealth rather than a Confederation, or some form of loose political association rather than a nation-state?

A second political concern assails us at the same time. We've long seen ourselves in the way that others (we assume, and not inaccurately) see us. We are, in other words, the world's good guys.

We're still that. But our international stature is shrinking.

Our own efforts, in diplomacy, the military, trade (to any country except the U.S.) and in aid, have all been dwindling.

We're scrambling now to catch up to where we once were. But the going has got much tougher in the meantime.

Other nations, most obviously China and India, are moving to the front and centre of the international stage, and so are crowding us out. Even tiny Nepal and impoverished Bangladesh now contribute more to United Nations peacekeeping than we do.

Our international diminution is probably just a part of the life cycle among nations. But we've invested far more of our self-esteem than is usual in our ability to play an important part in making the world a better place, and of being seen (by ourselves and others) to be doing this. So we'll be harder on ourselves if we do go down, even if only relatively so.

Projecting as far ahead as 2020 is ultimately a mug's game. The unexpected has to be expected. Events over which we have no control may blow us along faster, or may blow in our face.

Our strengths ? a good many of them, like almost the complete security we enjoy, are a gift from God or nature (and from geography) ? haven't altered. We really have made ourselves a miniature of the entire world in a way for which there are few, if any, historic precedents. Anyone who can do this can do a great deal else.

But the pessimism and the malaise are also real. We do need a vision. And we do need a leader. We now have neither.

Once we have both, we'll be able to race back to the head of the pack. But of course, being Canadians, we wouldn't do it in a triumphalist way.

--------------------
America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

Barack Obama

Post Extras Print Post Remind Me! Notify Moderator
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? trendal   07/01/05 01:37 PM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? Ancalagon   07/01/05 02:07 PM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? RiverMan   07/01/05 02:51 PM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? trendal   07/01/05 02:59 PM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? lonestar2004   07/01/05 03:16 PM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? trendal   07/01/05 03:29 PM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? Anisotropic   07/01/05 03:28 PM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? Annapurna1   07/01/05 06:03 PM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? lonestar2004   07/01/05 08:39 PM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? Phluck   07/02/05 08:35 AM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? niteowl   07/03/05 10:20 AM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? Phred   07/03/05 10:45 AM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? BCBudJohn   07/04/05 12:37 AM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? RiverMan   07/04/05 03:12 PM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? BCBudJohn   07/04/05 06:29 PM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? Phred   07/04/05 09:20 PM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? BCBudJohn   07/04/05 10:23 PM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? RandalFlagg   07/04/05 11:41 PM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? Phred   07/05/05 12:44 AM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? BCBudJohn   07/05/05 01:45 AM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? niteowl   07/05/05 10:30 AM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? Phred   07/05/05 01:58 PM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? Le_Canard   07/05/05 12:11 AM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? Phred   07/05/05 12:24 AM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? Shdwstr   07/05/05 02:29 PM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? Phred   07/05/05 02:06 PM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? trendal   07/05/05 02:28 PM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? Phred   07/05/05 02:38 PM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? trendal   07/05/05 03:00 PM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? trendal   07/05/05 03:08 PM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? Phred   07/05/05 05:33 PM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? Los_Pepes   07/05/05 05:38 PM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? trendal   07/05/05 05:42 PM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? Phred   07/05/05 07:40 PM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? trendal   07/05/05 07:45 PM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? trendal   07/05/05 07:47 PM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? trendal   07/05/05 07:51 PM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? SoopaX   07/05/05 04:45 PM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? Los_Pepes   07/05/05 05:20 PM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? trendal   07/05/05 05:21 PM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? BCBudJohn   07/05/05 05:40 PM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? Phred   07/05/05 08:18 PM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? niteowl   07/06/05 09:38 AM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? lonestar2004   07/06/05 09:59 AM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? niteowl   07/06/05 10:19 AM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? lonestar2004   07/06/05 10:29 AM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? J4S0N   07/06/05 10:28 AM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? lonestar2004   07/06/05 10:41 AM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? psilomonkey   07/06/05 10:37 AM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? lonestar2004   07/06/05 10:51 AM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? Phred   07/06/05 10:34 AM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? niteowl   07/06/05 12:27 PM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? trendal   07/06/05 12:38 PM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? niteowl   07/06/05 12:55 PM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? trendal   07/06/05 01:00 PM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? twighead   12/12/19 01:29 PM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? JohnRainy   12/12/19 01:38 PM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? Ancalagon   07/05/05 05:52 PM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? trendal   07/05/05 06:12 PM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? lonestar2004   07/05/05 09:46 AM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? Le_Canard   07/02/05 08:54 AM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? BCBudJohn   07/02/05 09:56 PM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? Gijith   07/05/05 06:24 AM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? RiverMan   07/05/05 09:37 AM
. * * Re: 2020 VISION What will Canada look like in 15 years? Silversoul   07/05/05 10:26 AM


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