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OfflineTedwilto
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Another wave of foreclosures
    #9446298 - 12/16/08 08:52 PM (15 years, 1 month ago)



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Song of the week list in journal.



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Invisiblejohnm214
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Re: Another wave of foreclosures [Re: Tedwilto]
    #9448543 - 12/17/08 05:07 AM (15 years, 1 month ago)

no


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Offlinekidaihuan
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Re: Another wave of foreclosures [Re: johnm214]
    #9448739 - 12/17/08 07:12 AM (15 years, 1 month ago)

People need to only buy things they can afford.

These idiots are getting what they deserve.


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Offlinelonestar2004
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Re: Another wave of foreclosures [Re: kidaihuan]
    #9449746 - 12/17/08 12:09 PM (15 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

kidaihuan said:
People need to only buy things they can afford.

These idiots are getting what they deserve.






Everyone deserves to own their own home! it does not matter if they cannot afford it or if they don't have a job.


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America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

Barack Obama


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InvisibleStonehenge
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Re: Another wave of foreclosures [Re: lonestar2004]
    #9450790 - 12/17/08 03:44 PM (15 years, 1 month ago)

I'm going to get into real estate investing soon as we start to see bottom.


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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


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InvisibleautomanM
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Re: Another wave of foreclosures [Re: lonestar2004]
    #9452909 - 12/17/08 10:01 PM (15 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

lonestar2004 said:
Quote:

kidaihuan said:
People need to only buy things they can afford.

These idiots are getting what they deserve.






Everyone deserves to own their own home! it does not matter if they cannot afford it or if they don't have a job.





What's wrong with apartments?


--------------------
No, no, you're not thinking, you're just being logical. ~ Niels Bohr


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OfflineChuangTzu
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Re: Another wave of foreclosures [Re: kidaihuan]
    #9452993 - 12/17/08 10:13 PM (15 years, 1 month ago)

Hopefully at least their kids will learn something from that and remember it...


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Offlinekidaihuan
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Re: Another wave of foreclosures [Re: lonestar2004]
    #9454574 - 12/18/08 06:42 AM (15 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

lonestar2004 said:
Quote:

kidaihuan said:
People need to only buy things they can afford.

These idiots are getting what they deserve.






Everyone deserves to own their own home! it does not matter if they cannot afford it or if they don't have a job.




People should live within their means.


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InvisibleLuddite
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Re: Another wave of foreclosures [Re: Tedwilto]
    #9472093 - 12/21/08 10:44 AM (15 years, 1 month ago)

Look at these videos here.  Are the global warming scammers causing the downfall of the industrialized world?  Will it lead to a depression that never ends except in the biggest famines in history (maybe starting 2020-2050)?



Penn And Teller Get Hippies To Sign Water Banning Petition


Penn & Teller: Bullshit! Environmental Hysteria


penn and teller global warming


Penn & Teller: Bullshit! Being Green


The Truth About Al Gore


Global Warming - Al Gore sued by 30.000 Scientists


Carbon offset trading fraud -- huge criminal activity


THE 21st Century Scam--Carbon Credits Trading


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OfflineTedwilto
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Re: Another wave of foreclosures [Re: Luddite]
    #9474089 - 12/21/08 05:51 PM (15 years, 1 month ago)

global warming is going to foreclose homes?


--------------------

Song of the week, click Huey:



Song of the week list in journal.



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InvisibleLuddite
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Re: Another wave of foreclosures [Re: Tedwilto]
    #9474419 - 12/21/08 07:02 PM (15 years, 1 month ago)

The oppressive greenhouse gas taxes and no alternatives to conventional oil will lead to depression and famines.  Conventional oil is running out.


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Invisiblegettinjiggywithit
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Re: Another wave of foreclosures [Re: Tedwilto]
    #9477133 - 12/22/08 09:11 AM (15 years, 1 month ago)

The waves will keep coming. Unemployment is predicted to up to 10% by 2010 and many adjustable rates are coming due in 2009 and 2010.

Because housing has tanked so bad, the people about to get hit with a high rate, can not refinance at a lower rate, even with STELLAR credit and a job, because their is no equity left in these homes to refi with.

Granted some people bought beyond their means. I think the foreclusure waves we are seeing from that group are coming to an end.

Many newer foreclosures have nothing to do with people making poor financial decisions.

Some who could easily afford their mortgages lost their jobs and have been out of work for more then 6 months.

Others have had life situations come up forcing a move, (divorce, job opportunity, death in family ect.) and have become stretched too thin, paying rent elsewhere and a mortgage, waiting for the home to sell. 

In other cases, some people have seen a 30% loss in their homes values and don't see the point to paying into something with no return and they are walking away and starting over with a sounder investment.

People have always moved around and there will always be reasons for needing to move around. Now, people are getting stuck and stretched by homes they can not sell for what is owed on them.

Even people who want to better position themselves and downsize before something like a foreclosure comes, can't sell their homes for what is owed on them.

We are going to continue to see waves of foreclosures to come, and for as long as they do, this economy is going to stay in the drink.

The only people I don't feel sorry for are the speculative investors who were flipping like crazy, creating a false demand by buying up 10-30 properties a piece, which caused the rising bubble prices, who then got stuck with them all when the market tanked.

At least, I think the wave of foreclosures resulted from that group are close to over.

How do you fault people who had good credit and a good job who could pay their mortgage, who have recently lost their job and can't find another in the lousy market?

The company my husband works for has cut 2/3rds of its staff in the last year, some of them who had been with the company for 20 years. That's one example of the downsizing to skeleton crews happening all over the U.S.

These recent job losses are where the largest source of recent forclosure waves are coming from.

People trusted that the Feds and Bernake were doing their jobs keeping growth and the economy stready and stable. Who knew back in 2005 that home values would quickly tank by 20-30%????

On a $600,000. house, which was your average older 3 bedroom 2 bath in California, that's a loss of at least $120,000 in a two years time. How many average americans and younger families can shoulder that sort of loss? Give people a break.


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Ahuwale ka nane huna.


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InvisibleLuddite
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Re: Another wave of foreclosures [Re: gettinjiggywithit]
    #9479731 - 12/22/08 06:58 PM (15 years, 1 month ago)

This looks scary.

World faces "total" financial meltdown: Bank of Spain chief
Dec 21 11:40 AM US/Eastern

The governor of the Bank of Spain on Sunday issued a bleak assessment of the economic crisis, warning that the world faced a "total" financial meltdown unseen since the Great Depression.

"The lack of confidence is total," Miguel Angel Fernandez Ordonez said in an interview with Spain's El Pais daily.

"The inter-bank (lending) market is not functioning and this is generating vicious cycles: consumers are not consuming, businessmen are not taking on workers, investors are not investing and the banks are not lending.

"There is an almost total paralysis from which no-one is escaping," he said, adding that any recovery -- pencilled in by optimists for the end of 2009 and the start of 2010 -- could be delayed if confidence is not restored.

Ordonez recognised that falling oil prices and lower taxes could kick-start a faster-than-anticipated recovery, but warned that a deepening cycle of falling consumer demand, rising unemployment and an ongoing lending squeeze could not be ruled out.

"This is the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression" of 1929, he added.

Ordonez said the European Central Bank, of which he is a governing council member, would cut interest rates in January if inflation expectations went much below two percent.

"If, among other variables, we observe that inflation expectations go much below two percent, it's logical that we will lower rates."

Regarding the dire situation in the United States, Ordonez said he backed the decision by the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates almost to zero in the face of profound deflation fears.

Central banks are seeking to jumpstart movements on crucial interbank money markets that froze after the US market for high-risk, or subprime mortgages collapsed in mid 2007, and locked tighter after the US investment bank Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy in mid September.

Interbank markets are a key link in the chain which provides credit to businesses and households.


http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=081221154025.lrwl34xi&show_article=1


Edited by Luddite (12/22/08 07:01 PM)


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InvisibleLuddite
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Re: Another wave of foreclosures [Re: Luddite]
    #9479786 - 12/22/08 07:09 PM (15 years, 1 month ago)

From the Wall Street Journal


Developers Ask U.S. for Bailout as Massive Debt Looms

By LINGLING WEI and JON HILSENRATH

With a record amount of commercial real-estate debt coming due, some of the country's biggest property developers have become the latest to go hat-in-hand to the government for assistance.

They're warning policymakers that thousands of office complexes, hotels, shopping centers and other commercial buildings are headed into defaults, foreclosures and bankruptcies. The reason: according to research firm Foresight Analytics LCC, $530 billion of commercial mortgages will be coming due for refinancing in the next three years -- with about $160 billion maturing in the next year. Credit, meanwhile, is practically nonexistent and cash flows from commercial property are siphoning off.

Unlike home loans, which borrowers repay after a set period of time, commercial mortgages usually are underwritten for five, seven or 10 years with big payments due at the end. At that point, they typically need to be refinanced. A borrower's inability to refinance could force it to give up the property to the lender.

A recent letter sent to Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, and signed by a dozen real-estate trade groups, painted a bleak scenario: "Right now, we believe there is insufficient systemic capacity to refinance expiring, performing commercial real-estate loans," said the letter. "For many borrowers, [credit] simply is not available," the letter noted.

To head off some of the impending pain, the industry is asking to be included in a new $200 billion loan program initially created by the government to salvage the market for car loans, student loans and credit-card debt. This money is intended to go directly to help investors finance purchases of securities backed by these assets. If commercial real estate is included, banks might have an incentive to make more loans to developers since they'd be able to repackage and sell them more easily to investors with the assurance of government backing.

As part of their lobbying efforts, some industry representatives have asked lawmakers to explore the idea of setting up a separate program aimed at boosting lending to commercial real estate only.

"We've been urging Washington to put this as one of the top priorities in dealing with the economy," says Steven Spinola, president of the Real Estate Board of New York, underscoring the need for the government to help spur commercial property lending either directly or indirectly.

The real-estate executives are warning that the approaching surge in commercial mortgages coming due poses another major threat to the global financial system, which already is on life support. With rent prices falling and vacancies rising due to the weakening economy, delinquencies on commercial mortgages already have begun to rise sharply.

Up until now, delinquencies on commercial real-estate loans have stayed below historical levels thanks in part to the limited amount of speculative construction in recent years. But now they're rising at a time when a huge volume of loans are coming due and some of the few institutions that were still making loans are retreating from the market.

"The credit crisis has got so bad that refinancing of even good loans may be drying up," says Richard Parkus, head of commercial-mortgage-backed securities research at Deutsche Bank.

Commercial real-estate owners, of course, are just the latest to get in line in Washington, D.C., for the billions of bailout dollars that the government has begun to hand out. Other businesses that have received or are campaigning for some form of aid include banks, credit-card issuers, car companies and even farm equipment maker Deere & Co.

Real-estate owners are pressing the government to take preemptive action before thousands of properties begin to fail. Among those who have been active in the lobbying effort: William Rudin, whose family is a large Manhattan office-building owner, Stephen Ross, chief executive of The Related Cos., a major U.S. developer, and Steven Roth, chief executive of office and retail landlord Vornado Realty Trust.

In recent weeks, industry representatives have met with officials in the Treasury Department, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, senior lieutenants of Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairwoman Sheila Bair, members of President-elect Barack Obama's transition team, and Sen. Charles Schumer (D., N.Y.).

One potential challenge for the industry: Though some Treasury and Fed officials are worried about the impact of its troubles on credit markets, other sectors -- such as the residential mortgage and auto industries -- are more pressing concerns.

Treasury and Fed officials have said they would consider including commercial real-estate in the new $200 billion loan initiative. But such a step won't happen soon. The program is not likely to be operational until February. Even then, expanding it to include the immense commercial real estate market would likely require additional financial support from the Treasury.

For now, the Treasury has agreed to backstop the Federal Reserve on as much as $20 billion of losses on the program. That means Treasury will take the first $20 billion of any losses using funds approved by Congress for the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program.

There's widespread agreement that a record volume of commercial real-estate loans made during the boom years are starting to come due. According to Foresight Analytics, the $530 billion of commercial mortgages that will be maturing between now and 2011 includes loans held by banks, thrifts and insurance companies as well as loans packaged and sold as commercial-mortgage-backed securities -- or CMBS.

At the heart of the financing scarcity is the virtual shutdown of the market for CMBS, where Wall Street firms sliced and diced commercial mortgages into bonds. During the recent real-estate boom that took off in 2005 and lasted through early 2007, that market fueled the lending to real estate because banks could sell easily the loans they made. But the credit crisis that started in the summer of 2007 has put the securitization market on hold, which, in turn, has caused lenders of all stripes to become increasingly reluctant to make new loans.

While commercial real-estate developers restrained themselves during the boom years when it came to speculative development, property investors bid up the prices of office buildings, malls and other projects to record levels assuming rents and occupancies would keep rising. With cash flows now falling, a growing number of developers are having a tough time repaying their debt. In cases where owners need to sell buildings to satisfy loans, the current environment makes that difficult. A revitalized lending climate is necessary, they say, to keep them afloat.

What's not clear is how soon the crunch will come. The Real Estate Roundtable, a major industry trade group, predicts that more than $400 billion of commercial mortgages will come due through the end of 2009. Foresight Analytics estimates that $160 billion of commercial mortgages will mature next year.

Jeff DeBoer, president and chief executive officer of the Roundtable, says the group came up with its estimate by looking at the $3.4 trillion of commercial real-estate loans outstanding. It's not unusual for roughly 10% of the industry's debt to roll over every year, he says, referring to refinancings.

This year, some $141 billion worth of commercial real-estate debt owed by property owners and developers to lenders came due, according to Foresight Analytics. Most of that was refinanced or extended by existing lenders. The lion's share of those loans was made between five and 10 years ago. Despite the recent decline in property values, the underlying buildings were still worth well more than their mortgages and were generating sufficient cash to pay debt service.

But the delinquency rate on payments to mortgage lenders is rising, particularly for properties that were financed at the top of the market. Delinquencies on commercial mortgages jumped to 0.96% in November, up from 0.62% in September.

Some analysts predict the delinquency rate will leap to 2% by the end of next year. During the real-estate collapse of the early 1990s, the worst-performing commercial mortgages -- those that were made in 1986 -- sustained losses of about 10%.

Write to Lingling Wei at lingling.wei@dowjones.com and Jon Hilsenrath at jon.hilsenrath@wsj.com

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122991429181825709.html?mod=mktw

CMBS Market Begins to Show Fissures
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122703851606838297.html?mod=sphere_ts&mod=sphere_wd

-------------------------

Look at the one year chart of SRS here http://www.bigcharts.com

UltraShort Real Estate ProShares seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to twice (200%) the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate IndexSM
http://www.proshares.com/funds/srs.html

Imagine if you could have sent that chart backward in time to yourself.  You could have tripled or quadrupled your money.  Will it happen again in 2009?  Maybe there is an opportunity here.


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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: Another wave of foreclosures [Re: Luddite]
    #9502272 - 12/27/08 01:28 PM (15 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

Luddite said:
Conventional oil is running out.




Yea, running out onto the ground because every tanker and tank is full to the top with so much oil they don't know what else to do with it. 

Next you will tell us that a carbon tax is a good thing because it will help prevent global warming.


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Anxiety is what you make it.


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