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Offlinewiggles
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Re: investing gold [Re: Hotnuts]
    #9864795 - 02/25/09 06:17 PM (15 years, 1 month ago)

I wouldn't worry too much if you just got into gold... here is my prediction...



Yep, pretty much like that. You'll notice that around march 1920 the price for gold started to decrease slightly. Similarly, we're experiencing a slight decrease in the price of gold now.

Check this out...



It's striking to me that these recent prices are forming a pattern quite similar to the beginning of the Germany hyperinflation. Anyone else think so too?

:tinfoil:


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You can turn your back on a person, but never turn your back on a drug, especially when its waving a razor sharp hunting knife in your eye.
Hunter S. Thompson

Edited by wiggles (02/25/09 06:20 PM)

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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: investing gold [Re: Hotnuts]
    #9864857 - 02/25/09 06:26 PM (15 years, 1 month ago)

Based on chart technicals as well as the short-term overbought nature of this commodity, I would suggest that those of you looking for an entry in gold will find it at around $900 - $925 in short order.  I will have my eye out tomorrow (Thursday) for an opportunity to SHORT sell Barrick Gold Corp (ABX), in conjunction with the thesis that gold will continue to cool off for at least a few days here.  Barrick is the most sensitive because they have a very high cash cost for finding this metal, and I believe their stock will continue to take hard hits if gold continues to cool.  Not to mention that they just sliced through their 50 and 200 day moving averages in the last two days (and had taken out the 20-day only days prior).


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InvisibleStonehenge
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Re: investing gold [Re: geokills]
    #9865148 - 02/25/09 07:11 PM (15 years, 1 month ago)

Wiggles, I fail to see any resemblance between those two charts. Perhaps you could point it out to me? All price charts will have ups and downs. Are you saying the price of gold means we will have hyperinflation? I've already predicted hyperinflation but not just right away. My reason is the enormous amount of money the country is printing up. The rest of the world is propping us up at the moment but the safe haven provided by the dollar will be abandoned some day and our huge deficits are what will make it happen. Gold is going way up. I bought in the 400's so I'm good.


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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

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OfflineChuangTzu
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Re: investing gold [Re: Stonehenge]
    #9865193 - 02/25/09 07:17 PM (15 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

Stonehenge said:
I've already predicted hyperinflation but not just right away. My reason is the enormous amount of money the country is printing up.




Just how much money is the country printing up?

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OfflineYrat
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Re: investing gold [Re: wiggles]
    #9865219 - 02/25/09 07:20 PM (15 years, 1 month ago)

wiggles, your first chart has a logarithmic scale.  if you were to convert it to a linear scale, as in the second chart, you would be able to compare the two much more accurately, and realize that the gold trend in chart #2 is nowhere near alike.

compared the to first, the second is a mere flat line.


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"There are a thousand hacking at the branches of evil
to one who is striking at the root."
-Henry David Thoreau
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Offlinewiggles
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Re: investing gold [Re: Yrat]
    #9865243 - 02/25/09 07:24 PM (15 years, 1 month ago)

Sadly I couldn't get things scaled down to actually run the numbers next to one another over a period of time. My note on similarity is between the second, and the period of time starting around March 1920. I suppose I should have plotted out the numbers, oh well :smile:

Either way, I agree - hyperinflation is on the way.


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You can turn your back on a person, but never turn your back on a drug, especially when its waving a razor sharp hunting knife in your eye.
Hunter S. Thompson

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OfflineHotnuts
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Re: investing gold [Re: geokills]
    #9865637 - 02/25/09 08:21 PM (15 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

geokills said:
Based on chart technicals as well as the short-term overbought nature of this commodity, I would suggest that those of you looking for an entry in gold will find it at around $900 - $925 in short order.  I will have my eye out tomorrow (Thursday) for an opportunity to SHORT sell Barrick Gold Corp (ABX), in conjunction with the thesis that gold will continue to cool off for at least a few days here.  Barrick is the most sensitive because they have a very high cash cost for finding this metal, and I believe their stock will continue to take hard hits if gold continues to cool.  Not to mention that they just sliced through their 50 and 200 day moving averages in the last two days (and had taken out the 20-day only days prior).





The next few trading days are going to be critical as to what gold does for the longer terms more than likely. If gold continues to sink much more and breaks support, that will send a clear bearish signal for the most part and then i'll have to wait to see what the correction looks like after that. Breaking support isn't the end of the world, but isn't a great sign either. Especially if it breaks it hard core. I'm hoping this is wave 4 and there's a pop to the upside that will establish wave 5. (I don't put much into this Elliot Wave Theory, but you never know. A lot of traders do.) There's nothing more than i'd love to see this baby head north for another week or so and then fail. Fail like hell. If it doesn't work out like that, i'll short it on a correction peak. Well, maybe. I'll see when we get there. Good luck Geokills.

Edited by Hotnuts (02/25/09 08:25 PM)

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OfflineHotnuts
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Re: investing gold [Re: Hotnuts]
    #9868471 - 02/26/09 09:50 AM (15 years, 1 month ago)

Technicals still don't look too bad. Man I hope this baby pops to the upside! Gold's still in convergence, which is pretty good. If 900/890 (around the support area of trend and 50 day sma)will hold, I bet gold will run a leg higher. Then it's mega short after that hopefully. :gethigh:

Edited by Hotnuts (02/26/09 04:22 PM)

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OfflineHotnuts
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Re: investing gold [Re: Hotnuts]
    #10991919 - 09/03/09 10:57 AM (14 years, 6 months ago)


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OfflineYrat
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Re: investing gold [Re: Hotnuts]
    #10991976 - 09/03/09 11:07 AM (14 years, 6 months ago)

i wonder if they're paying in USD :strokebeard: that's one way to get out of our toxic currency. 

the jump in gold and silver yesterday was a nice surprise, ~3%.


--------------------
"There are a thousand hacking at the branches of evil
to one who is striking at the root."
-Henry David Thoreau
Strike The Root

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OfflineYrat
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Re: investing gold [Re: Yrat]
    #10992100 - 09/03/09 11:38 AM (14 years, 6 months ago)

another 2% so far today :eek:


--------------------
"There are a thousand hacking at the branches of evil
to one who is striking at the root."
-Henry David Thoreau
Strike The Root

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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: investing gold [Re: Yrat]
    #10992932 - 09/03/09 02:42 PM (14 years, 6 months ago)

Wait until gold crosses the $1,000 threshold.

When it breaks that important psychological barrier I look for the dollar to plummet.


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“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch

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OfflineHotnuts
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Re: investing gold [Re: zorbman]
    #10992956 - 09/03/09 02:47 PM (14 years, 6 months ago)

Not if stocks plummet as well. If stocks plummet, the dollar will rise.

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InvisibleDieCommie

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Re: investing gold [Re: zorbman]
    #10992961 - 09/03/09 02:47 PM (14 years, 6 months ago)

Didnt it break that barrier a year or two ago already?

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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: investing gold [Re: DieCommie]
    #10993033 - 09/03/09 03:03 PM (14 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

DieCommie said:
Didnt it break that barrier a year or two ago already?




It briefly tested $1,000 earlier this year and last year but was rebuffed. (This is known as technical resistance). Since then it has gone basically sideways. (Normally the longer that goes on the stronger will be the move when it finally breaks out). It's hovering just below $1,000 right now.You can almost feel the tension building.

Gold closed at $995/oz today- a six month high.

It needs to clear the $1,000 barrier and stay there to move significantly higher.



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“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch

Edited by zorbman (09/03/09 03:10 PM)

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OfflineYrat
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Re: investing gold [Re: zorbman]
    #11003116 - 09/05/09 06:27 AM (14 years, 6 months ago)

here's the same idea with 2009 added in.  very interesting.



--------------------
"There are a thousand hacking at the branches of evil
to one who is striking at the root."
-Henry David Thoreau
Strike The Root

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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: investing gold [Re: Yrat]
    #11003903 - 09/05/09 11:46 AM (14 years, 6 months ago)

I would not be surprised to see another short-term pullback before the breakout finally occurs.

In your chart look how far ahead the price has gotten from its 200 day moving average. (The green line). Notice how when it did that in March it came down significantly.

Btw, I'm thinking we have six months at the most before the REAL financial crash occurs. It could happen anytime now but hopefully it will be on the long end of that range because although I have all the gold and silver I need I still have some other preparations to take care of.


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“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch

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OfflineYrat
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Re: investing gold [Re: zorbman]
    #11008890 - 09/06/09 11:40 AM (14 years, 6 months ago)



--------------------
"There are a thousand hacking at the branches of evil
to one who is striking at the root."
-Henry David Thoreau
Strike The Root

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InvisibleLayYouIn
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Re: investing gold [Re: Yrat]
    #11019482 - 09/08/09 07:53 AM (14 years, 6 months ago)

It broke $1000 and silver looks like its heading toward $17.

But will they hold....

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OfflineYrat
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Re: investing gold [Re: LayYouIn]
    #11019506 - 09/08/09 08:04 AM (14 years, 6 months ago)

this week will be the deciding factor.


--------------------
"There are a thousand hacking at the branches of evil
to one who is striking at the root."
-Henry David Thoreau
Strike The Root

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