Leaked Obama Internals Show Him Within Margin in Pennsyvania? - Political Discussion

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lonestar2004
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Registered: 10/03/04
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Leaked Obama Internals Show Him Within Margin in Pennsyvania?

#9110003 - 10/21/08 04:04 PM (12 years, 4 months ago)

Apparently, Obama's internals were leaked to a radio talk show host in Scranton. they show Obama up by only 2 in PA.
Steve Corbett, a radio talk show host in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, accidentally received a copy of an internal email sent by Grant Olin who heads the Wilkes-Barre headquarters of the Obama campaign. The email went to 627 Obama campaign volunteers in the Wilkes-Barre Scranton region, saying that Obama Headquarters reported an internal poll which shows that Obama is only 2 points up in Pennsylvania.

Sean Smith, who is heading Obama’s Pennsylvania campaign, was interviewed by Steve Corbett via phone at 5:35 today to discuss this. He said that Grant "went rogue", and aknowledged that Grant was "reprimanded" for this.

Here is the audio.

http://audio.wilknewsradio.com/m/audio/21203046/corbett-speaks-with-sean-smith.htm

Some polls have Obama up 10 to 15 Points in PA! Bullshit, then why is Obama, Biden, and Hillary wasting so much time in Pennsylvania?

:rolleyes:

I think Obama knows he's losing in Pennsylvania.

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maudlin
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Re: Leaked Obama Internals Show Him Within Margin in Pennsyvania? *DELETED*

[Re: lonestar2004]
#9110012 - 10/21/08 04:06 PM (12 years, 4 months ago)

Post deleted by maudlin

Reason for deletion: eh

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Prisoner#1
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Re: Leaked Obama Internals Show Him Within Margin in Pennsyvania?

[Re: maudlin]
#9110024 - 10/21/08 04:10 PM (12 years, 4 months ago)

why is he trying to solidify this 10-28 point lead he has in all these swing states

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supernovasky
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Re: Leaked Obama Internals Show Him Within Margin in Pennsyvania?

[Re: Prisoner#1]
#9110061 - 10/21/08 04:15 PM (12 years, 4 months ago)

He's just trying to make sure people are not complacent, IMO.
These are all of the recent PA polls:

Morning Call 10/16 - 10/20 600 LV 4.0 52 42 Obama +10
Susquehanna 10/16 - 10/18 700 LV 3.7 48 40 Obama +8
SurveyUSA 10/11 - 10/13 516 LV 4.4 55 40 Obama +15
Marist 10/05 - 10/08 757 LV 3.5 53 41 Obama +12
Strategic Vision (R) 10/05 - 10/07 1200 LV 3.0 54 40 Obama +14
Rasmussen 10/06 - 10/06 700 LV 4.0 54 41 Obama +13
SurveyUSA 10/05 - 10/06 653 LV 3.9 55 40 Obama +15
Morning Call Tracking 09/26 - 09/30 598 LV 4.0 48 41 Obama +7
Quinnipiac 09/27 - 09/29 832 LV 3.4 54 39 Obama +15
FOX News/Rasmussen 09/28 - 09/28 500 LV 4.5 50 42 Obama +8
Franklin & Marshall 09/23 - 09/28 767 RV 3.5 45 38 Obama +7
Morning Call 09/21 - 09/25 577 LV 4.5 47 43 Obama +4
Rasmussen 09/24 - 09/24 500 LV 4.0 49 45 Obama +4
SurveyUSA 09/23 - 09/24 1094 LV 3.0 50 44 Obama +6
Strategic Vision (R) 09/21 - 09/23 1200 LV 3.0 47 46 Obama +1
CNN/Time 09/21 - 09/23 730 LV 3.5 53 44 Obama +9

Yeah.

Obama's got Pennsylvania. He just wants to make it seem closer.

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thedefone
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Registered: 10/06/07
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Re: Leaked Obama Internals Show Him Within Margin in Pennsyvania?

[Re: supernovasky]
#9110130 - 10/21/08 04:25 PM (12 years, 4 months ago)

How about a link to any poll released since May that shows McCain with a lead?

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Ferris
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Re: Leaked Obama Internals Show Him Within Margin in Pennsyvania?

[Re: thedefone]
#9110335 - 10/21/08 05:06 PM (12 years, 4 months ago)

In a state that could have easily gone either way, I'd be happy if he were just in the margin. I'd be even happier if he were back in the margin because McCain was forced to the left, but that doesn't seem to be the case.

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fireworks_god
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Re: Leaked Obama Internals Show Him Within Margin in Pennsyvania?

[Re: lonestar2004]
#9110406 - 10/21/08 05:22 PM (12 years, 4 months ago)

Definitely could have been an intentional leak, throw the McCain campaign off course...

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Ferris
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Re: Leaked Obama Internals Show Him Within Margin in Pennsyvania?

[Re: supernovasky]
#9110415 - 10/21/08 05:24 PM (12 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

supernovasky said:
He's just trying to make sure people are not complacent, IMO.

Obama's got Pennsylvania. He just wants to make it seem closer.

That's a backwards strategy, but I can see it

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lonestar2004
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Re: Leaked Obama Internals Show Him Within Margin in Pennsyvania?

[Re: fireworks_god]
#9110809 - 10/21/08 06:39 PM (12 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

fireworks_god said:
Definitely could have been an intentional leak, throw the McCain campaign off course...

i thought about that too! we obviously need a life! :grin:

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lonestar2004
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Re: Leaked Obama Internals Show Him Within Margin in Pennsylvania?

[Re: lonestar2004]
#9111661 - 10/21/08 08:58 PM (12 years, 4 months ago)

Rendell 'still a little nervous' about Penn., asks Obama to return

(CNN) — Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell has sent two separate memos to the Obama campaign in the past five days requesting that the Democratic Presidential candidate—as well as Hillary and Bill Clinton—return to campaign in Pennsylvania, Rendell told CNN's Gloria Borger.

Rendell said the McCain campaign is clearly making a push to win Pennsylvania, given the recent visits by the Arizona senator, his wife and his running mate. As a result, he wants Obama to appear in western Pennsylvania, Harrisburg and one more “large rally” in Philadelphia. Democrats generally worry that the race is significantly closer than what recent polls have suggested. According to Rendell, there is also worry among Democrats the McCain campaign has successfully raised the enthusiasm level among Republicans in the state.

“I don’t want to be selfish,” Rendell said. “But I’m still a little nervous, so I have asked Obama to come back. We understand he’s got demands from 20 different states, but we’d like to see him here.”

Obama's support appears to be weakest in the western part of the state, a region Pennsylvania Rep. Jack Murtha recently called 'racist,' and one where he badly lost to Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary.

Obama last campaigned in Pennsylvania on October 11, a week and a half ago. VP candidate Joe Biden made an appearance with Bill and Hillary Clinton in Scranton on October 12. McCain and running mate Sarah Palin have both made visits to the state this week.

The latest CNN poll of polls in Pennsylvania suggests Obama hold a 13 point lead over McCain there. CNN currently considers the state leaning Obama.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/21/rendell-still-a-little-nervous-about-penn-asks-obama-to-return/

If McCain won Pennsylvania Obama could win Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, new Hampshire and Virgina and still lose.

i think....

where is that interactive map?

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Ferris
PsychedelicJourneyman

Registered: 03/12/06
Posts: 11,529

Re: Leaked Obama Internals Show Him Within Margin in Pennsylvania?

[Re: lonestar2004]
#9111678 - 10/21/08 09:01 PM (12 years, 4 months ago)

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/electoral-vote-tracker.htm

Ya, that would put him at 265 according to this one.

If you throw in Nevada though, which I know is under a lot of Dem attention (they're filtering California's resources over to there) and is leaning Dem, Obama has it.

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lonestar2004
Live to party,work to affordit.

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Re: Leaked Obama Internals Show Him Within Margin in Pennsylvania?

[Re: lonestar2004]
#9111684 - 10/21/08 09:03 PM (12 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

lonestar2004 said:

The latest CNN poll of polls in Pennsylvania suggests Obama hold a 13 point lead over McCain there. CNN currently considers the state leaning Obama.

shit CNN does not even trust its own polls....

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lonestar2004
Live to party,work to affordit.

Registered: 10/03/04
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Re: Leaked Obama Internals Show Him Within Margin in Pennsylvania?

[Re: Ferris]
#9111692 - 10/21/08 09:04 PM (12 years, 4 months ago)

Thanks Ferris, i need to bookmark that site.

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Ferris
PsychedelicJourneyman

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Re: Leaked Obama Internals Show Him Within Margin in Pennsylvania?

[Re: lonestar2004]
#9111695 - 10/21/08 09:04 PM (12 years, 4 months ago)

No, I think that they just add weight to older polls, to add less credence to sudden swings. Under that method, it's probably still within the 5 points that would keep it a swing state.

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vonhumboldt
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Registered: 02/28/08
Posts: 377

Re: Leaked Obama Internals Show Him Within Margin in Pennsylvania?

[Re: Ferris]
#9111869 - 10/21/08 09:26 PM (12 years, 4 months ago)

The real issue is that McCain is not just behind in polls but has pretty much conceded or heavily reduced campaigning/advertising in the following states: Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Michigan, Colorado, Iowa, and New Mexico. A McCain advisor described Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico as "gone."

And Pennsylvania has not gone Republican in 20 years, so I doubt in this election where we'll probably witness a convincing Obama victory as well as Democrats winning additional seats in Congress that Pennsylvania will go for McCain.

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thedefone
deus ex machina

Registered: 10/06/07
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Re: Leaked Obama Internals Show Him Within Margin in Pennsylvania?

[Re: Ferris]
#9111886 - 10/21/08 09:29 PM (12 years, 4 months ago)

If McCain wins Pennsylvania and every state listed as swing by RCP he still loses by 16 votes. So, pick another state to delude yourself into thinking is competitive. Probably Virginia.

I'm still waiting with bated breath to know how you think the electoral college will give McCain 300+ votes.

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Ferris
PsychedelicJourneyman

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Posts: 11,529

Re: Leaked Obama Internals Show Him Within Margin in Pennsylvania?

[Re: thedefone]
#9111898 - 10/21/08 09:30 PM (12 years, 4 months ago)

I was going to mention too that Virginia was more likely to go McCain.

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vonhumboldt
Stranger

Registered: 02/28/08
Posts: 377

Re: Leaked Obama Internals Show Him Within Margin in Pennsylvania?

[Re: thedefone]
#9111931 - 10/21/08 09:35 PM (12 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

thedefone said:
If McCain wins Pennsylvania and every state listed as swing by RCP he still loses by 16 votes. So, pick another state to delude yourself into thinking is competitive. Probably Virginia.

I'm still waiting with bated breath to know how you think the electoral college will give McCain 300+ votes.

Virginia does not look for McCain either:

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thedefone
deus ex machina

Registered: 10/06/07
Posts: 1,883
Loc: Gondwana

Re: Leaked Obama Internals Show Him Within Margin in Pennsylvania?

[Re: Ferris]
#9111948 - 10/21/08 09:37 PM (12 years, 4 months ago)

Maybe California?

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vonhumboldt
Stranger

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Posts: 377

Re: Leaked Obama Internals Show Him Within Margin in Pennsylvania?

[Re: thedefone]
#9111998 - 10/21/08 09:44 PM (12 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

thedefone said:
Maybe California?

Ha!

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