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InvisibleEntropymancer
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Registered: 07/16/05
Posts: 10,207
Re: Poll: Obama Opens 14-Point Lead On McCain [Re: lonestar2004]
    #9081796 - 10/15/08 02:16 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

lonestar2004 said:
IMO the race tightening (a few points)




:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:


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Offlinelonestar2004
Live to party,work to affordit.
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Registered: 10/03/04
Posts: 8,978
Loc: South Texas
Last seen: 13 years, 2 days
Re: Poll: Obama Opens 14-Point Lead On McCain [Re: Entropymancer]
    #9081926 - 10/15/08 02:50 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

Entropymancer said:


:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:






and i bet you thought George Bush would lose the last tow elections.


:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:


--------------------
America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

Barack Obama

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InvisibleKingOftheThing
the cool fool
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Registered: 11/17/02
Posts: 27,397
Loc: USA
Re: Poll: Obama Opens 14-Point Lead On McCain [Re: lonestar2004]
    #9081947 - 10/15/08 02:56 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

lonestar2004 said:
Quote:

Entropymancer said:


:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:






and i bet you thought George Bush would lose the last tow elections.


:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:




well he did lose the 2000 one, but he cheated

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InvisibleEntropymancer
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Registered: 07/16/05
Posts: 10,207
Re: Poll: Obama Opens 14-Point Lead On McCain [Re: lonestar2004]
    #9081981 - 10/15/08 03:05 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

lonestar2004 said:
Quote:

Entropymancer said:


:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:






and i bet you thought George Bush would lose the last tow elections.


:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:




No, in 2004 I figured he'd beat Kerry, which he did.  In 2000 I hoped that Gore would beat him, but it didn't surprise me at all that America based their vote on who they'd rather have a beer with (the fact that Gore would have won had it not been for Supreme Court supervision was actually a pleasant surprise).

My personal opinions aside though, neither Kerry or Gore possessed this sort of dominating lead in mid-October as far as I recall.

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Offlinezouden
Neuroscientist
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Registered: 11/12/07
Posts: 7,091
Loc: Australia
Last seen: 14 years, 5 months
Re: Poll: Obama Opens 14-Point Lead On McCain [Re: Entropymancer]
    #9082018 - 10/15/08 03:17 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

A dominating and growing lead.


--------------------
I know... that just the smallest
                                                part of the world belongs to me
You know... I'm not a blind man
                                                    but truth is the hardest thing to see

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Offlinelonestar2004
Live to party,work to affordit.
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Registered: 10/03/04
Posts: 8,978
Loc: South Texas
Last seen: 13 years, 2 days
Re: Poll: Obama Opens 14-Point Lead On McCain [Re: Entropymancer]
    #9082056 - 10/15/08 03:25 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

Entropymancer said:
My personal opinions aside though, neither Kerry or Gore possessed this sort of dominating lead in mid-October as far as I recall.





1976

August - Gallup

Jimmy Carter 62%
Gerald Ford 30%


A 32 point dominating lead!

Final Results

Carter 50.1%
Ford 48.0%




1980 

Nov 1980, Gallup Election Day Poll
Carter 44%
Reagan 41%

Final Results

Reagan 50.7%
Carter 41.0%




2000

Sept 2000 Newsweek
Al Gore 49%
George W. Bush 39%

Final Results
Bush 47.9%
Gore 48.4%

http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/579009/general_election_polls_a_history_of.html?cat=75




In conclusion, the only poll that matters is the one on election day.







Polls predicted a Kerry landslide on election day!

"Shortly after 1pm On Election Day the National Networks' raw exit-Poll data was posted on the Internet showing Kerry winning the National Election in a landslide.

"From the standpoint of the American voter, this data was projecting / forecasting / indicating the winner of the National Election and it was doing so before a single poll had closed in any state"

http://www.renewamerica.us/columns/wambough/050107


My personal opinions aside I CLEARLY recall Polls on election day predicting both a John Kerry and Al Gore winning the national election...


--------------------
America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

Barack Obama

Edited by lonestar2004 (10/15/08 03:25 PM)

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OfflineAnonymousRabbit
Comrade
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Registered: 01/10/08
Posts: 8,993
Last seen: 1 year, 6 months
. [Re: lonestar2004]
    #9082098 - 10/15/08 03:34 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

.


--------------------
.

Edited by AnonymousRabbit (05/19/22 01:06 AM)

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Invisiblesaved by zero
Stranger
Male User Gallery

Registered: 09/30/08
Posts: 359
Re: Poll: Obama Opens 14-Point Lead On McCain [Re: lonestar2004]
    #9082100 - 10/15/08 03:34 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

The undecided will sway the vote in favor of McCain/Palin.  JMPO
Only sheep would give any of the major networks' polls ANY credit at all


--------------------
I'm not a redneck, I'm a Appalachian-American

Edited by saved by zero (10/15/08 03:35 PM)

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Offlinezouden
Neuroscientist
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Registered: 11/12/07
Posts: 7,091
Loc: Australia
Last seen: 14 years, 5 months
Re: Poll: Obama Opens 14-Point Lead On McCain [Re: lonestar2004]
    #9082110 - 10/15/08 03:36 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

Yes but I clearly recall polls predicting a Bush win too. This time around, no one is predicting a McCain win.


--------------------
I know... that just the smallest
                                                part of the world belongs to me
You know... I'm not a blind man
                                                    but truth is the hardest thing to see

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InvisibleEntropymancer
 User Gallery
Registered: 07/16/05
Posts: 10,207
Re: Poll: Obama Opens 14-Point Lead On McCain [Re: lonestar2004]
    #9082130 - 10/15/08 03:41 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

lonestar2004 said:
1976

August - Gallup

Jimmy Carter 62%
Gerald Ford 30%

A 32 point dominating lead!

Final Results

Carter 50.1%
Ford 48.0%




Holy shit! You're telling me August polls don't accurately predict the election? I'd never have guessed!
:stonedjerk:








Quote:

 
Nov 1980, Gallup Election Day Poll
Carter 44%
Reagan 41%

Final Results

Reagan 50.7%
Carter 41.0%




z0mg!!! A three-point lead isn't a reliable indicator?! Say it ain't so Joe!
:stonedjerk:




Quote:

2000

Sept 2000 Newsweek
Al Gore 49%
George W. Bush 39%

Final Results
Bush 47.9%
Gore 48.4%

http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/579009/general_election_polls_a_history_of.html?cat=75





Again, there's a lot more time between September and November than 3 weeks (McCain had a +5 lead according to some polls in September).  And even with 3 weeks left, McCain has time to turn it around, he just has to do something fast, and his attempts to belittle Obama and associate him with Ayers ain't working in his favor.



Quote:

In conclusion, the only poll that matters is the one on election day.




Way to throw up a straw horse, buddy; I never made any claims to the contrary.  Your assertion that I took issue with was your claim that the race is tightening.  The polls tell a very different story.







Quote:

Polls predicted a Kerry landslide on election day!

"Shortly after 1pm On Election Day the National Networks' raw exit-Poll data was posted on the Internet showing Kerry winning the National Election in a landslide.




What constitutes a landslide? And were these polls adjusted to remove polling bias?

fivethirtyeight.com does adjust poll numbers to account for bias in their projections, and since the majority of polls have a slight pro-Obama bias, that means inflating numbers in McCain's favor.  And even with those adjustments, there's no indication right now that the race is narrowing.

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InvisibleFerris
PsychedelicJourneyman
Male

Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 03/12/06
Posts: 11,529
Re: Poll: Obama Opens 14-Point Lead On McCain [Re: zouden]
    #9082134 - 10/15/08 03:42 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

Not to mention that the trends still indicate a high level of momentum that would take a freaking wowzer to stall, let alone reverse.  We have a high volume of independents going towards decided early who usually wait until election day, and a high volume of Republicans retreating from the party.  I'm not saying it's not possible, but 1 in 10 chance for McCain would probably be generous at the moment.


--------------------

Discuss Politics

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Offlinelonestar2004
Live to party,work to affordit.
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Registered: 10/03/04
Posts: 8,978
Loc: South Texas
Last seen: 13 years, 2 days
Re: Poll: Obama Opens 14-Point Lead On McCain [Re: Entropymancer]
    #9082138 - 10/15/08 03:42 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:


Entropymancer said:


fivethirtyeight.com 






:stonedjerk::stonedjerk::stonedjerk::stonedjerk:


--------------------
America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

Barack Obama

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InvisibleFerris
PsychedelicJourneyman
Male

Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 03/12/06
Posts: 11,529
Re: Poll: Obama Opens 14-Point Lead On McCain [Re: lonestar2004]
    #9082162 - 10/15/08 03:48 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

lonestar2004 said:
1976

August - Gallup

Jimmy Carter 62%
Gerald Ford 30%


A 32 point dominating lead!

Final Results

Carter 50.1%
Ford 48.0%





I want to pick on this one because it best describes Obama's position a couple months ago, not McCain's current situation.  Ford had just come off a narrow primary victory over Reagan and had a split party, which he later won over thanks in large part to rigid partisanship.  So :shrug:, Hillary anyone?


--------------------

Discuss Politics

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InvisibleEntropymancer
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Registered: 07/16/05
Posts: 10,207
Re: Poll: Obama Opens 14-Point Lead On McCain [Re: lonestar2004]
    #9082175 - 10/15/08 03:51 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

lonestar2004 said:
Quote:


Entropymancer said:


fivethirtyeight.com 






:stonedjerk::stonedjerk::stonedjerk::stonedjerk:




Explain, please.

You have a problem with the fact that they take all the polls numbers, adjust them all in McCain's favor, then feed them into a statistical projection model?

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Offlinelonestar2004
Live to party,work to affordit.
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Registered: 10/03/04
Posts: 8,978
Loc: South Texas
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Re: Poll: Obama Opens 14-Point Lead On McCain [Re: Ferris]
    #9082177 - 10/15/08 03:51 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

Ferris said:
Not to mention that the trends still indicate a high level of momentum that would take a freaking wowzer to stall, let alone reverse.  We have a high volume of independents going towards decided early who usually wait until election day, and a high volume of Republicans retreating from the party.  I'm not saying it's not possible, but 1 in 10 chance for McCain would probably be generous at the moment.





IMO things are slowly turning back McCain's way.


--------------------
America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

Barack Obama

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InvisibleFerris
PsychedelicJourneyman
Male

Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 03/12/06
Posts: 11,529
Re: Poll: Obama Opens 14-Point Lead On McCain [Re: lonestar2004]
    #9082181 - 10/15/08 03:53 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

It probably should be flattening out soon.  There are only so many undecided independents and swayable Republicans


--------------------

Discuss Politics

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