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Unfolding Nature Shop: Unfolding Nature: Being in the Implicate Order

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Re: Social Engineering by Democrats Destroys the World's Financial Markets [Re: zappaisgod]
    #9077329 -

of course there's no links what soever

http://www.moneyshow.com/investing/blog.asp?aid=blog-15125


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California Has Legalized Child Prostitution

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Re: Social Engineering by Democrats Destroys the World's Financial Markets [Re: zappaisgod]
    #9084006 -

Quote:
Have you heard anybody make an argument that PMI companies are in trouble because of all they have had to pay out?  Because I haven't.  The insurance being whined about is interbank insurance, credit default swaps.  Not PMI.


Here's the chart for the 4 big PMI companies:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=TGIC#chart4:symbol=tgic;range=5y;compare=rdn+mgic+pmi;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined

Notice how three of them are down over 90% in the last year?

Anyway, I'm not sure if this is really pertinent to whatever point you're trying to make about the CRA, but the PMI companies are definitely troubled, though I suspect at least MGIC and one of Radian and PMI will probably survive - Triad is actually in run-off, if I remember correctly - it's a while since I've looked. These are old and experienced players in the mortgage markets, and aren't responsible for the bubble, AFAIK. Of course, neither is CRA.

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Re: Social Engineering by Democrats Destroys the World's Financial Markets [Re: phi1618]
    #9085410 -

phi1618 said:
Quote:
Have you heard anybody make an argument that PMI companies are in trouble because of all they have had to pay out?  Because I haven't.  The insurance being whined about is interbank insurance, credit default swaps.  Not PMI.


Here's the chart for the 4 big PMI companies:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=TGIC#chart4:symbol=tgic;range=5y;compare=rdn+mgic+pmi;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined

Notice how three of them are down over 90% in the last year?


That refers to their stock price.  Have any of them declared bankruptcy or defaulted on their policies?  Gotten bailouts?  I haven't heard of it if they had.
Quote:
Anyway, I'm not sure if this is really pertinent to whatever point you're trying to make about the CRA, but the PMI companies are definitely troubled, though I suspect at least MGIC and one of Radian and PMI will probably survive - Triad is actually in run-off, if I remember correctly - it's a while since I've looked. These are old and experienced players in the mortgage markets, and aren't responsible for the bubble, AFAIK. Of course, neither is CRA.


As has been gone over several times, the combination of affirmative action loans (CRA)with guaranteed suckers (F & F) to purchase said AA loans has definitely brought the industry down.  The single greatest cause of the collapse (and the bubble itself) was gummint interference in the industry.  Not a lack of or over-regulation but a pernicious interference to impose a standard of lending to unreliable borrowers.  Who, shocker, didn't pay their loans back.

It reminds me of that TV show about the dream home or whatever.  They select a family, build a house for them and then give it to them.  Well, one family didn't think that was enough, they took a mortgage out, got the cash, blew the cash and are now going to lose their home.  While the lender also gets fucked.  CRA to the extreme.  Bums to the extreme.


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Re: Social Engineering by Democrats Destroys the World's Financial Markets [Re: zappaisgod]
    #9085467 -

Triad is in run-off, meaning it's stopped writing new business and will be gone in a few years. Radian and PMI are also close to similar fates.
In my mind, this qualifies as "in trouble." But, they're not likely to require any government bailout, and were overall more responsible in the mess than some other companies - their policies just weren't underwritten - with the exception of MGIC - to withstand such a large national property bubble and collapse.

Anyway, I don't think you, or anyone else, has posted a real argument on this topic. You have a logical outline and explanation for what occurred - gubmint interference caused lax lending standards at the low end that spread through the whole market - but have failed to produce any data to support the claim.

None of the people I trust on the issue - those who've either made a lot of money from the issue, predicted it publicly, or have real, verifiable qualifications and engaged in open and public debate on the issue - have taken your side on this issue.

I have produced data that suggests that you're wrong - the proportion of mortgages securitized or guaranteed by the GSEs fell during the bubble, there were similar bubbles at the same time in other countries that lack the CRA, the bubble was not limited to lower income or black areas, the default rates were highest in certain non-GSE CMOs, property bubbles are common in history without the necessity for the CRA.

I don't believe you understand what the CRA is, or does, and I don't believe you've ever worked on CRA compliance. Tanta and Calculated Risk have - they are both industry insiders with experience, have been blogging on the subject for years, and understand what the CRA is, it's history, and what it does - you can read a little of the pertinent history here:
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/10/hmda-data-on-high-priced-loans.html

I have suggested an alternate explanation that has greater explanatory and predictive power: credit, liquidity, and exuberance; or easy money and psychology. These are the factors cited by those who predicted the collapse. Nobody is talking about the CRA except right-wing pundits!

I have pointed to some sources of liquidity in the system:
China
gulf states
SIVs, unregulated specialty financial companies, and securitization, which allowed unregulated levels of leverage in the financial system - this is the factor most cited by Nouriel Roubini, a respected and established economist who has been most accurate in publicly predicting the course of the crisis to this point
Central banks, led by the Federal Reserve
...

Combined with this was a securitization system that resulted in a rampant principal-agent problem.

edijt for spliing

Edited by phi1618 (10/16/08 08:04 AM)

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Re: Social Engineering by Democrats Destroys the World's Financial Markets [Re: phi1618]
    #9086008 -

Calculatedrisk, for some reason seems to be a favorite.  I dunno, I checked it out and it's an anonymous retired blogger guy.  Tanta too.  I just went there right now and one of the first sentences, from Tanta, is this:

Quote:
Trust the Wall Street Journal to fail to understand the point of reporting regulation.


Part of a diatribe in favor of affirmative action loans.

Come on.  The Wall Street Journal is probably the most respected financial publication in the entire world.  Some anonymous guy writes "Trust the Wall Street Journal to fail to understand". This kind of stuff is a little bit off the wall.  Not to descend into an ad hominem but if this is your idea of an authority, and you present their points as authoritative, then they really need to be a little more forthcoming about their credentials.  Absolutely nothing from anonymous nobodies.  From the about page:

Quote:
Calculated Risk: a senior executive, retired from a public company, with a background in investing, finance and economics.

Tanta: Tanta is a former bank officer and mortgage lending specialist who is currently on extended medical leave.



I could fisk them but there is no reason to.  Numerous people, with credentials and a name attached have done enough to refute their stuff.


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Re: Social Engineering by Democrats Destroys the World's Financial Markets [Re: zappaisgod]
    #9086144 -

It wasn't part of a diatribe in favor of affirmative action loans, but pointing out a flaw in a newspaper analysis - specifically, that a high price in HMDA doesn't indicate a subprime loan. Nothing more, nothing political at all. The point of that article isn't the point I made linking it at all - I only was asking you to read her history of HMDA and CRA, which she includes as necessary background for the point she was trying to make about the WSJ article.
AFAIK, neither CR nor Tanta (bloggers on Calculated Risk) has expressed a clear personal opinion on CRA, and it is not a political blog.

Calculated Risk, for me, falls into the category "predicted it publicly", since he's publicly been worried about the housing bubble and it's likely economic consequences since he started blogging in 2005, while prices were still rising.

Also, his blog is cited in some others:
http://www.econbrowser.com/ is a nice, non-partisan economics blog by Jim Hamilton and Menzie Chinn, both well respected economists - you can find a link to Calculated Risk in the right hand column if you scroll down a bit

You can see here:
http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2005/09/21/rita-over-at-calculated-risk/
that Brad Setser reads Calculated Risk - he's an economist for the Council on Foreign relations and possibly the greatest expert on flow of funds
He also has a much shorter blogroll than Jim Hamilton, that includes Calculated Risk.

Greg Mankiw, a well respected entirely and unabashedly Republican economist at Harvard apparently reads Calculated Risk:
http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2008/03/subprime-mortgage-blues.html

Krugman, though liberal, is a Nobel laureate and has referred to Calculated Risk as (emphasis his) "the housing crisis blog":
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/01/22/silver-lining-to-the-financial-crisis/

edit: couldn't resist, here's another good one
The economists at the Atlanta Fed have their own blog, which has engaged in extensive debates and discussions with Calculated Risk:
http://macroblog.typepad.com/macroblog/2007/03/here_is_the_key.html

Plenty more, but that's enough to show he's not a total unknown on the subject.

Quote:
Numerous people, with credentials and a name attached have done enough to refute their stuff.


Apparently, you don't even know what their stuff is, since you thought the article I linked was a "diatribe in favor of affirmative action loans," which it was not.


Also, why concentrate on my affection for a single, anonymous blogger? How about my arguments?

How about the other experts I talk about? Warren Buffet, Bill Gross, John Paulson,  Nouriel Roubini, just to name a few?

Edited by phi1618 (10/16/08 11:48 AM)

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Re: Social Engineering by Democrats Destroys the World's Financial Markets [Re: zappaisgod]
    #9086212 -

Quote:
Come on.  The Wall Street Journal is probably the most respected financial publication in the entire world


So if someone were to post a New York Times article, they could defend it against attack by saying that the NYT is one of the most respected news reporting publications in the world?  You fail to acknowledge that both of the blogs PREDICTED the collapse.  Did the wall street journal predict the collapse?  What other respectable mainstream economists that you know agree with, were actually writing about how the housing market would collapse pre 2006?  Can you find a single source pre 2006 that both predicts the collapse of the housing market and offers some sort of comprehensive analysis as to why the CRA is to blame?  I've included below a video of Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital, giving a very similar prediction of the housing market collapse.  The great thing about the video is he is giving his speech to a group of mortgage brokers in Las Vegas during the height of the housing boom.  Count for me how many times the CRA is mentioned.




The video actually has 8 parts, but instead of embedding them here anyone interested in watching the rest can go to youtube.


Quote:
I could fisk them but there is no reason to.  Numerous people, with credentials and a name attached have done enough to refute their stuff.


Your bluffing.  Post an article directly refuting their analysis.

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Re: Social Engineering by Democrats Destroys the World's Financial Markets [Re: DeepDish]
    #9086227 -

There're a couple of economists from American Enterprise Institute that published an after-the-crisis op-ed piece in WSJ blaming it on CRA.

Peter Schiff is another good one I missed - plenty of people were on top of this, just none of the ones who're talking about CRA now.

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Re: Social Engineering by Democrats Destroys the World's Financial Markets [Re: phi1618]
    #9086248 -

I see all that and I disagree with you about your assessment of the Tanta post on the front page.  It is about affirmative action.  The second he mentions race it becomes an affirmative action issue.  He is in favor of it.  Since some lenders discriminated the gummint decide all lenders must bend over backwards to make up for it.  Affirmative Action.

Paul Krugman won the Nobel for work he did in the seventies.  Then there is the whole Nobel Prize issue, vis a vis what it has become.
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=ZDBiYzIxYzNhMmNmNDkwMmYxZjJmNDEyYzEzNmZmOTQ=

This one's even better
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=NmZmMzlmZjU4NDVlMmFlZWRlZDM4YjZiYmRmYjc4NDQ=
Quote:
Krugman’s Posthumous Nobel
The living Krugman’s rabidly liberal New York Times column has, for nine years now, traded on the dead Krugman’s reputation as an economist, a reputation that only will be burnished by the award of the Nobel Prize. Yet his column is pure politics, not economics. It is the equivalent of astronomers Mather and Smoot — the 2006 Nobelists in physics — writing on astrology.



You really should not use anonymous bloggers as authoritative sources.  Nor Krugman.  Nothing Krugman says today should be granted any additional credibility because he won a Nobel for work 30 years ago.  In fact, it begs the question, "What the fuck happened to you, Paully, you showed such promise?"


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Re: Social Engineering by Democrats Destroys the World's Financial Markets [Re: DeepDish]
    #9086261 -

DeepDish said:
You fail to acknowledge that both of the blogs PREDICTED the collapse.  What other respectable mainstream economists that you know agree with, were actually writing about how the housing market would collapse pre 2006?


http://timesbusiness.typepad.com/money_weblog/2008/10/10-people-who-p.html

Quote:
Did the wall street journal predict the collapse?


yes


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Re: Social Engineering by Democrats Destroys the World's Financial Markets [Re: zappaisgod]
    #9086308 -

The post refers back to a post by CR. Here's the distilled essence, from that post:
Quote:
The WSJ used the federal Home Mortgage Disclosure Act data to scan for "high interest loans". My understanding is that not all "high interest" loans are "subprime", some are Alt-A. And I'm not sure if this analysis included IO ARMs and Neg Am ARMs; two loan types frequently used by homebuyers in more affluent areas. Hopefully Tanta will help me understand.


btw, they agree with the main point of the article, they're questioning its analysis.

other point:
Again, why cherry-pick Krugman? I provided Mankiw, a vocal Republican, as a reference as well?

Edited by phi1618 (10/16/08 12:15 PM)

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Re: Social Engineering by Democrats Destroys the World's Financial Markets [Re: phi1618]
    #9086395 -

I just reread your post.  All these guys you cite read calculatedrisk.  That is what you mention, that they read calculatedrisk.  What do they themselves say?  I bet there are several people at the Wall Street Journal who read him/them too.

There has been no shortage of named and respected economists pegging this problem at exactly the combination of CRA and F&F twins that I and several others here assert.  (including John McCain, the economic idiot, three years ago).  Further, it seems to me, that anything that avoids the CRA and the F twins is dancing through hoops to get away from it.  I cannot for the life of me understand why any serious observer would deny that the entire problem stems from people not paying back loans.  The next question is, obviously, why are they not paying back their loans?  There was no faltering economy.  Then what must it be?  Individual people making bad decisions and defaulting on loans.  Individual people who were well known to be credit risks but who lived in neighborhoods full of bad credit risks.  The affirmative action answer was to extend credit to people who lived there who sucked.  Because it was kind.  And gentle.  And sucky people should have the same credit as real people.  Who work and save and put their own money into their homes.  And that's what they did and the sucky people couldn't or wouldn't pay the money back. 

I know personally about this.  Often friends who I knew were losers would ask to borrow money from me.  Sometimes I would lend them money.  They wouldn't pay it back.  I would be out money.  Lesson to me, "Don't lend money to people you know are bums".  Mooks.  The banks knew this but then the gummint stepped in and said they should lend money to bums even if they knew they were bums.  To sweeten the deal they offered favorable rates and created two agencies to buy the crummy loans after they were made.  Yippee, they can look like a good guy and some other schmuck will be stuck with the detritus.  What's the down side?  Meanwhile, this drove up prices and left responsible people with the bill.

This shit is so obvious that everybody arguing against it is squirming through hoops to refute it to get to some notion of politically correct conclusions.  There are a lot more bums than there are Wall street execs so let's blame Wall street.  Meanwhile, all the regular people who bought stock are fucked.  Because of, in the beginning, loans that never should have been made in the first place.  Derivatives my ass.


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Re: Social Engineering by Democrats Destroys the World's Financial Markets [Re: phi1618]
    #9086435 -

phi1618 said:
other point:
Again, why cherry-pick Krugman? I provided Mankiw, a vocal Republican, as a reference as well?


Because I don't know Mankiw.  I know Krugman.  I get the Times everyday.  He is so far gone.
Give me a break, I can't get familiar with all those guys in one little session.  All you said about Mankiw is that he reads calculatedrisk.  And I may disagree with him as well.  I just don't know what he says.


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Re: Social Engineering by Democrats Destroys the World's Financial Markets [Re: zappaisgod]
    #9086845 -

I've said this before, but here goes:
1)during the bubble, the twins market share declined
2)most foreclosures are not on CRA loans
3)the housing bubble was world-wide, not limited to the US
4)the housing bubble affected all income levels; in fact, jumbo mortgages (460k+ or something like that, until recently) were some of the hardest hit
5)stock prices are not just a product of the bursting of the housing bubble, but are also a product of overall deleveraging
6)There have been plenty of RE bubbles in the past and in other places at other times without the help of the twins or CRA
7)CRA and the GSEs have been around much longer than the housing bubble

Quote:
the entire problem stems from people not paying back loans.


I agree that a large part of the problem is people taking out loans they don't have the ability to pay back.

Quote:
why are they not paying back their loans?


Many loans could only be paid back if they could be refinanced when the collateral was worth more. Please see my thread on Bill Gross for why house prices stopped going up - it was the increase in interest rates that was the initial trigger for the process, but of course, like an avalanche, the problem is not the trigger but the unstable situation preceding it.

Quote:
Individual people making bad decisions and defaulting on loans.


Defaulting on the loan isn't always the bad decision, though it could be; in this case, many of the mortgages were inherently unmanageable in the absence of rising house prices.

Quote:
Individual people who were well known to be credit risks but who lived in neighborhoods full of bad credit risks.  The affirmative action answer was to extend credit to people who lived there who sucked.  Because it was kind.  And gentle.  And sucky people should have the same credit as real people.  Who work and save and put their own money into their homes.  And that's what they did and the sucky people couldn't or wouldn't pay the money back. 


That's quite a mouthful.
Can you break it down, please? Track the course of the crisis, show that the decline in house prices was caused by neighborhoods impacted by the CRA?

Please, go read my post about Bill Gross. He's a smart guy, and knew that house prices would fall.

Consider:
What happened to the money that houses used to be worth?
What happened to the money stocks used to be worth?
Why, relative to houses and stocks, is money suddenly so much more valuable?

The answer is this: a significant slug of leverage (debt) has been forced out of the system, either through repayment or default, and there's necessarily an accompanying destruction of value.

The problem goes so much further than housing, it's depressing. The problem is simply too much credit, too much debt, too much liquidity for too long pushing up asset prices and eroding balance sheets.

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Re: Social Engineering by Democrats Destroys the World's Financial Markets [Re: phi1618]
    #9087110 -

phi1618 said:
I've said this before, but here goes:
1)during the bubble, the twins market share declined


And towards the end of the bubble it increased drastically.  It took a little while for the loans to reach the sucker of last resort.  Nonetheless, the people making the loans were motivated by the existence of the sucker of last resort.  The argument here is moot.
Quote:
2)most foreclosures are not on CRA loans

  So what?  What is a CRA loan anyway?  It is a pernicious influence of gummint to effect lending habits, not a specific loan program that you can say the name of.
Quote:
3)the housing bubble was world-wide, not limited to the US


True.  As America goes, vis a vis money, so goes the world.  I'll tell you one place we didn't fuck up.  Iceland.
Quote:
4)the housing bubble affected all income levels; in fact, jumbo mortgages (460k+ or something like that, until recently) were some of the hardest hit


Hardest hit?  By what?  A little known fact is that jumbos don't give a fuck.  The only people negatively impacted by a bubble are newbies.  The only people negatively affected by a burst bubble are geezers cashing out right then.  All in all, except for credit market losses hoeowners don't care.  Sell high-buy high.  Sell low-buy low.
Quote:
 
5)stock prices are not just a product of the bursting of the housing bubble, but are also a product of overall deleveraging


True.  I think it's pretty clear which came first, isn't it?  No defaulted loans; no stock bomb.  I think what we have in the stock market right now is generally called a buying opportunity.
Quote:
6)There have been plenty of RE bubbles in the past and in other places at other times without the help of the twins or CRA.

  Yep, there have. 
Quote:
7)CRA and the GSEs have been around much longer than the housing bubble.  The CRA and the GSEs have been around for quite some time.

  They have also been fundamentally modified only within the last decade.  Those fundamental modifications have been the death of them.  And those fundamental modifications were a result of an asshole philosophy that predates two world wars.  So what?  It took decades for the Soviet Union to implode.
Quote:
Quote:
the entire problem stems from people not paying back loans.


I agree that a large part of the problem is people taking out loans they don't have the ability to pay back.

Quote:
why are they not paying back their loans?


Many loans could only be paid back if they could be refinanced when the collateral was worth more. Please see my thread on Bill Gross for why house prices stopped going up - it was the increase in interest rates that was the initial trigger for the process, but of course, like an avalanche, the problem is not the trigger but the unstable situation preceding it.

Quote:
Individual people making bad decisions and defaulting on loans.


Defaulting on the loan isn't always the bad decision, though it could be; in this case, many of the mortgages were inherently unmanageable in the absence of rising house prices.

Quote:
Individual people who were well known to be credit risks but who lived in neighborhoods full of bad credit risks.  The affirmative action answer was to extend credit to people who lived there who sucked.  Because it was kind.  And gentle.  And sucky people should have the same credit as real people.  Who work and save and put their own money into their homes.  And that's what they did and the sucky people couldn't or wouldn't pay the money back. 


That's quite a mouthful.
Can you break it down, please? Track the course of the crisis, show that the decline in house prices was caused by neighborhoods impacted by the CRA?


You keep thinking that it only had to be in the CRA neighborhoods to fuck shit up.  Phred has explained this quite clearly.  You cannot contain entitlements.  Once somebody gets something you cannot deny anybody the same thing.  Reread that until it sinks in.
Quote:
Please, go read my post about Bill Gross. He's a smart guy, and knew that house prices would fall.


For my entire life there has always been somebody saying house prices were going to fall.  In about 1 in 5 years they're right.  That is not a good ratio.
Quote:
Consider:
What happened to the money that houses used to be worth?
What happened to the money stocks used to be worth?
Why, relative to houses and stocks, is money suddenly so much more valuable?


Perception.  Thanks a lot media
Quote:
The answer is this: a significant slug of leverage (debt) has been forced out of the system, either through repayment or default, and there's necessarily an accompanying destruction of value.

The problem goes so much further than housing, it's depressing. The problem is simply too much credit, too much debt, too much liquidity for too long pushing up asset prices and eroding balance sheets.

\

It is ever only confidence.  The belief that the person you are lending money to will pay it back.  Or you can not lend money and not borrow money.  Let's forbid all lending.  How do you reckon that will work?  Who should determine what is too much?  Not enough?  Just right?


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Re: Social Engineering by Democrats Destroys the World's Financial Markets [Re: zappaisgod]
    #9087508 -

I read your response. I think we agree that if people had the ability and willingness to pay back their loans, we wouldn't be having this problem, and on not much else. Been fun chatting with you.

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Re: Social Engineering by Democrats Destroys the World's Financial Markets [Re: phi1618]
    #9087841 -

You and I DO have good chats.  I enjoy them very much myself.


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Re: Social Engineering by Democrats Destroys the World's Financial Markets [Re: zappaisgod]
    #9089899 -

Do you really believe that but for the CRA everything would be fine and dandy in the financial industry now?

Was it really all down to the government insisting they make enormous profits and see executive bonuses skyrocket?

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