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lonestar2004
Live to party,work to affordit.
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Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide?
#8984643 - 09/25/08 02:27 PM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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BROCKPORT, NEW YORK--Pollster John Zogby hinted Thursday (September 25) that he sees a McCain landslide as a real possibility.
According to the Rochester (NY) Democrat and Chronicle:(O) ne of the country’s top pollsters thinks the race will end in an electoral landslide.
John Zogby, president of Zogby International, told a group of businesspeople today that it’s up to Democratic Sen. Barack Obama to convince voters to go with him. If he’s not successful, the country will likely vote for “a comfortable old shoe”, that being Republican Sen. John McCain.
Despite the books Obama has written, Americans are still asking, “Who are you, where are you from?,” Zogby said.
Also on Thursday, Zogby released his latest poll, which found that a slim majority favored McCain and his running mate, Sarah Palin, over Obama and running mate Joe Biden. A week earlier, Obama and Biden held the lead.
http://www.federalreview.com/2008/09/zogby-predicting-mccain-landslide.htm
So now Zogby and i both predict a McCain landslide!
Obama has 39 days!!!!
-------------------- America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure" We have "reckless fiscal policies" America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better Barack Obama
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Coaster
Baʿal
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: lonestar2004]
#8984784 - 09/25/08 02:57 PM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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so i guess Zogby ignores all the current poles that has obama leading by 6 points
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Arp
roving mycophagist
Registered: 04/20/98
Posts: 2,191
Loc: in a van by the river
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: Coaster]
#8984792 - 09/25/08 02:59 PM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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i predict that McCain will win too, no matter what the polls are saying
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Coaster
Baʿal
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: Arp]
#8984803 - 09/25/08 03:01 PM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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ya lets just ignore the populous opinion and formulate my own and substitute theirs for mine
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Ferris
PsychedelicJourneyman
Registered: 03/12/06
Posts: 11,529
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: Coaster]
#8984812 - 09/25/08 03:04 PM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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I'd like to hear some further breakdown of his reasoning on that one, because the numbers aren't pointing that way right now.
-------------------- Discuss Politics
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lonestar2004
Live to party,work to affordit.
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: Coaster]
#8984815 - 09/25/08 03:04 PM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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Quote:
Coaster said: so i guess Zogby ignores all the current poles that has obama leading by 6 points
All i know is that people called me clueless when i predicted this months ago, now i have at least have one of the country’s top pollsters on my side.
-------------------- America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure" We have "reckless fiscal policies" America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better Barack Obama
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Arp
roving mycophagist
Registered: 04/20/98
Posts: 2,191
Loc: in a van by the river
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: Coaster]
#8984841 - 09/25/08 03:10 PM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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the republicans don't need the majority of the votes in order to win elections. they're that good
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Ferris
PsychedelicJourneyman
Registered: 03/12/06
Posts: 11,529
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: lonestar2004]
#8984853 - 09/25/08 03:11 PM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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This "top pollster" just destroyed a lot of his credibility by making wild predictions that smack of partisanship. No wonder his company's polls are leaning against the tide.
-------------------- Discuss Politics
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Coaster
Baʿal
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: lonestar2004]
#8984855 - 09/25/08 03:11 PM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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Quote:
lonestar2004 said:
Quote:
Coaster said: so i guess Zogby ignores all the current poles that has obama leading by 6 points
All i know is that people called me clueless when i predicted this months ago, now i have at least have one of the country’s top pollsters on my side.
lol you and Zogby are both clueless
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Ferris
PsychedelicJourneyman
Registered: 03/12/06
Posts: 11,529
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: Ferris]
#8984860 - 09/25/08 03:12 PM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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Hell, Zogby's only recent poll on the president ticket was last week, and it was an internet poll. Pffft
Even then, they had Obama ahead by 3 points.
-------------------- Discuss Politics
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Ancalagon
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: lonestar2004]
#8984872 - 09/25/08 03:14 PM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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Quote:
lonestar2004 said:
Quote:
Coaster said: so i guess Zogby ignores all the current poles that has obama leading by 6 points
All i know is that people called me clueless when i predicted this months ago, now i have at least have one of the country’s top pollsters on my side.
Would you like to make a small side bet to that effect? I'll even give you odds: McCain wins the popular vote by more than 5% I'll give you $50; Obama wins by more than 5% you give me $25; the margin is closer than 5% we call it even. Do I have a taker?
-------------------- ?When Alexander the Great visted the philosopher Diogenes and asked whether he could do anything for him, Diogenes is said to have replied: 'Yes, stand a little less between me and the sun.' It is what every citizen is entitled to ask of his government.? -Henry Hazlitt in 'Economics in One Lesson'
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Ferris
PsychedelicJourneyman
Registered: 03/12/06
Posts: 11,529
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: Ancalagon]
#8984882 - 09/25/08 03:15 PM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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You'd have to give me way better odds than that
-------------------- Discuss Politics
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lonestar2004
Live to party,work to affordit.
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: Arp]
#8984893 - 09/25/08 03:17 PM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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Quote:
Arp said: the republicans don't need the majority of the votes in order to win elections. they're that good
http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Cat/0/Number/8984888/an/0/page/0
-------------------- America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure" We have "reckless fiscal policies" America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better Barack Obama
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Ancalagon
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: Ferris]
#8984900 - 09/25/08 03:18 PM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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Quote:
Ferris said: You'd have to give me way better odds than that
I'd have to give anyone sane way better odds than that. You'd have to be nuts to think McCain is going to win by a landslide. And yet Lonestar is lauding his own past prediction to that effect. So let's see if he'll put his money where his mouth is.
-------------------- ?When Alexander the Great visted the philosopher Diogenes and asked whether he could do anything for him, Diogenes is said to have replied: 'Yes, stand a little less between me and the sun.' It is what every citizen is entitled to ask of his government.? -Henry Hazlitt in 'Economics in One Lesson'
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Seuss
Error: divide byzero
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: Coaster]
#8984903 - 09/25/08 03:18 PM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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> so i guess Zogby ignores all the current poles that has obama leading by 6 points
Must be all those cell phone people... Ron Paul supporters got a nasty dose of polling reality and soon Obama supporters will as well.
-------------------- Just another spore in the wind.
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Ferris
PsychedelicJourneyman
Registered: 03/12/06
Posts: 11,529
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: Seuss]
#8984922 - 09/25/08 03:21 PM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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I didn't think pollsters called cells, only home phone lines. I could be wrong on that one though
-------------------- Discuss Politics
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Coaster
Baʿal
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: Seuss]
#8984934 - 09/25/08 03:22 PM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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if fox reported the poll and it has obama wining i really doubt that the poll had a bias non-random sample population
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Ferris
PsychedelicJourneyman
Registered: 03/12/06
Posts: 11,529
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: Ferris]
#8984938 - 09/25/08 03:23 PM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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538 dot com has the odds at 20p-2p (10-1) Obama landslide vs McCain landslide (landslide = 375+ ev).
-------------------- Discuss Politics
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lonestar2004
Live to party,work to affordit.
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: Ancalagon]
#8984940 - 09/25/08 03:23 PM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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how much personal info would i have to give you in such a situation?
After what the Anonymous people did to Palin I'm paranoid.
-------------------- America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure" We have "reckless fiscal policies" America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better Barack Obama
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Phred
Fred's son
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: lonestar2004]
#8984972 - 09/25/08 03:31 PM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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Zogby is the most inaccurate of all the national polling organizations. Their polls are almost always outliers. The organization with the best track record for accuracy (in election races, at least) is Rasmussen. Gallup is decent, too.
This is overall accuracy over time, mind you - it is always possible that on any given poll Zogby might be the most accurate one day, Rasmussen the next, USA Toda the next. But in the aggregate, Rasmussen comes out on top, followed by Gallup. Zogby is pretty much the bottom of the heap (USA Today is pretty awful too, as I recall).
Why anyone bothers paying Zogby to do polls is beyond me.
Phred
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lonestar2004
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: Phred]
#8985013 - 09/25/08 03:38 PM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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Maybe thats why he's going out on a limb with this comment?(regain some credibility)
-------------------- America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure" We have "reckless fiscal policies" America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better Barack Obama
Edited by lonestar2004 (09/25/08 03:40 PM)
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Coaster
Baʿal
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: lonestar2004]
#8985022 - 09/25/08 03:39 PM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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i think phred just raped ur credibility lonestar u agreed with zogby and u said he was a top pollster clearly he is none of those unless by top u mean the top of the erroneous pollsters
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Seuss
Error: divide byzero
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: Phred]
#8985029 - 09/25/08 03:40 PM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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> Why anyone bothers paying Zogby to do polls is beyond me.
Because it is fun!
-------------------- Just another spore in the wind.
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zappaisgod
horrid asshole
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: Seuss]
#8985047 - 09/25/08 03:43 PM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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Because they get paid. Just like Rasmussen and Gallup and all the rest.
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lonestar2004
Live to party,work to affordit.
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: Coaster]
#8985056 - 09/25/08 03:44 PM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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I mostly always agree with my fearless leader (phred) but its not like Zogby came out of nowhere...
"Zogby International is an American market research, opinion polling firm founded in 1984 by John Zogby. The company polls, researches and consults for a wide spectrum of business media, government, and political groups, and conducts public opinion research in more than 70 countries. Zogby International is headquartered in Utica, New York, with offices in Washington D.C., Miami, Florida, and Dubai, United Arab Emirates.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zogby_International
-------------------- America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure" We have "reckless fiscal policies" America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better Barack Obama
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Ferris
PsychedelicJourneyman
Registered: 03/12/06
Posts: 11,529
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: zappaisgod]
#8985061 - 09/25/08 03:45 PM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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Maybe if I was down, I'd shuffle around some money in their direction, hoping for some anomalous numbers.
-------------------- Discuss Politics
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Phred
Fred's son
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: lonestar2004]
#8985128 - 09/25/08 03:53 PM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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I realize Zogby has been around a while, I just point out that their accuracy sucks. I am surprised to see Zogby plump for McCain, though... John Zogby himself is a partisan Libbie. This is one reason his polling sucks... his bias comes across in his question design, which every competent pollster will tell you is key to poll accuracy.
At any rate, if you're going to trust ANY polls (and there are excellent arguments for disregarding ALL of them), Zogby ain't gonna be on the short list of trustworty pollsters, believe me.
Phred
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Gastronomicus
3-0-G
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: lonestar2004]
#8985142 - 09/25/08 03:55 PM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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Zogby don't know jack. Obama by landslide!
-------------------- Make my Funk the P Funk, I wants to get Funked up LAGM2024
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Coaster
Baʿal
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: Gastronomicus]
#8985193 - 09/25/08 04:07 PM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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the funny thing is when i first read the title since i new obama was in the lead i presumed landslide meant his campaign will act like a landslide and slip down down down a muddy slippy path and obama would win by a phatty margin
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Shins
Fun guy
Registered: 09/15/04
Posts: 16,337
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: Coaster]
#8985206 - 09/25/08 04:12 PM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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polls are meaningless, often incomplete, and change constantly.
listen, any crazy on the street can "predict" that aliens will attack tomorrow, and by no means does it make it true.
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Ancalagon
AgnosticLibertarian
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: lonestar2004]
#8985239 - 09/25/08 04:18 PM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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Quote:
lonestar2004 said: how much personal info would i have to give you in such a situation?
After what the Anonymous people did to Palin I'm paranoid.
Can do it through Paypal if you have an account; no information need change hands prior to the actual election.
-------------------- ?When Alexander the Great visted the philosopher Diogenes and asked whether he could do anything for him, Diogenes is said to have replied: 'Yes, stand a little less between me and the sun.' It is what every citizen is entitled to ask of his government.? -Henry Hazlitt in 'Economics in One Lesson'
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Redstorm
Prince of Bugs
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: lonestar2004]
#8985890 - 09/25/08 06:47 PM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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I'll quote a post I saw a few minutes ago that seems particularly appropriate.
Quote:
November 3rd is the most important poll day
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Annapurna1
liberal pussy
Registered: 05/21/02
Posts: 5,646
Loc: innsmouth..MA
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: Redstorm]
#8986714 - 09/25/08 08:59 PM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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sadly i am inclined to agree w/ zogby this time..even though he predicted a kerry landslide in 2004...
-------------------- "anchor blocks counteract the process of pontiprobation..while omalean globes regulize the pressure"...
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lonestar2004
Live to party,work to affordit.
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: Redstorm]
#8988623 - 09/26/08 09:01 AM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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Quote:
Redstorm said: I'll quote a post I saw a few minutes ago that seems particularly appropriate.
Quote:
November 3rd is the most important poll day
-------------------- America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure" We have "reckless fiscal policies" America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better Barack Obama
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Ancalagon
AgnosticLibertarian
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Posts: 1,364
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: lonestar2004]
#8988711 - 09/26/08 09:33 AM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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Can I take that as a no on my proposed bet, Lone?
-------------------- ?When Alexander the Great visted the philosopher Diogenes and asked whether he could do anything for him, Diogenes is said to have replied: 'Yes, stand a little less between me and the sun.' It is what every citizen is entitled to ask of his government.? -Henry Hazlitt in 'Economics in One Lesson'
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lonestar2004
Live to party,work to affordit.
Registered: 10/03/04
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: Ancalagon]
#8988730 - 09/26/08 09:40 AM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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Quote:
Ancalagon said:
Quote:
lonestar2004 said:
Quote:
Coaster said: so i guess Zogby ignores all the current poles that has obama leading by 6 points
All i know is that people called me clueless when i predicted this months ago, now i have at least have one of the country’s top pollsters on my side.
Would you like to make a small side bet to that effect? I'll even give you odds: McCain wins the popular vote by more than 5% I'll give you $50; Obama wins by more than 5% you give me $25; the margin is closer than 5% we call it even. Do I have a taker?
Deal!
-------------------- America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure" We have "reckless fiscal policies" America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better Barack Obama
|
Ancalagon
AgnosticLibertarian
Registered: 07/30/02
Posts: 1,364
Last seen: 15 years, 1 month
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: lonestar2004]
#8988757 - 09/26/08 09:46 AM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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Quote:
lonestar2004 said:
Quote:
Ancalagon said:
Quote:
lonestar2004 said:
Quote:
Coaster said: so i guess Zogby ignores all the current poles that has obama leading by 6 points
All i know is that people called me clueless when i predicted this months ago, now i have at least have one of the country’s top pollsters on my side.
Would you like to make a small side bet to that effect? I'll even give you odds: McCain wins the popular vote by more than 5% I'll give you $50; Obama wins by more than 5% you give me $25; the margin is closer than 5% we call it even. Do I have a taker?
Deal!
Sweet, rofl, now for the dilemma: Do I vote for fucking Obama just to cancel out your inevitable vote for McCain? Shit fuck, what a conundrum.
-------------------- ?When Alexander the Great visted the philosopher Diogenes and asked whether he could do anything for him, Diogenes is said to have replied: 'Yes, stand a little less between me and the sun.' It is what every citizen is entitled to ask of his government.? -Henry Hazlitt in 'Economics in One Lesson'
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lonestar2004
Live to party,work to affordit.
Registered: 10/03/04
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Loc: South Texas
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: Ancalagon]
#8988765 - 09/26/08 09:49 AM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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I'm gonna be Voting early and often.
-------------------- America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure" We have "reckless fiscal policies" America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better Barack Obama
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pinkfloydms
!!!!!
Registered: 05/26/04
Posts: 4,470
Loc: City of Dreams
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: lonestar2004]
#8988852 - 09/26/08 10:09 AM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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How can you vote often? You can only vote once.
-------------------- Muppet Said: so yeah: - 'sex' five times - once with a man - once with a cadaver - and thrice with actual women(all of which were prostitutes) Best story ever! www.panicstream.com
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lonestar2004
Live to party,work to affordit.
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: pinkfloydms]
#8988872 - 09/26/08 10:15 AM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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Source of "Vote Early and Often"
The cynical phrases "Vote early -- and often" and "Vote early -- and vote often" are variously attributed to three different Chicagoans: Al Capone, the famous gangster; Richard J. Daley, mayor from 1955 to 1976; and William Hale Thompson, mayor from 1915-1923 and 1931-1935. All three were notorious for their corruption and their manipulation of the democratic process. It is most likely that Thompson invented the phrase, and Capone and Daley later repeated it.
-------------------- America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure" We have "reckless fiscal policies" America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better Barack Obama
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pinkfloydms
!!!!!
Registered: 05/26/04
Posts: 4,470
Loc: City of Dreams
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: lonestar2004]
#8989018 - 09/26/08 10:55 AM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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Al Capone was a good guy.
-------------------- Muppet Said: so yeah: - 'sex' five times - once with a man - once with a cadaver - and thrice with actual women(all of which were prostitutes) Best story ever! www.panicstream.com
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