|
AnonymousRabbit
Comrade


Registered: 01/10/08
Posts: 8,993
Last seen: 1 year, 4 months
|
.
#8866195 - 09/02/08 02:29 PM (15 years, 4 months ago) |
|
|
.
-------------------- .
Edited by AnonymousRabbit (05/18/22 11:16 PM)
|
Gastronomicus
3-0-G



Registered: 03/31/05
Posts: 9,727
Last seen: 1 day, 11 hours
|
Re: Obama's major post convention, post Palin bounce! [Re: AnonymousRabbit]
#8866914 - 09/02/08 04:42 PM (15 years, 4 months ago) |
|
|
The hurricanes are merely proof that God hates republicans. Sorry guys, but Jesus votes Democrat
-------------------- Make my Funk the P Funk, I wants to get Funked up
LAGM2024
|
lonestar2004
Live to party,work to affordit.



Registered: 10/03/04
Posts: 8,978
Loc: South Texas
Last seen: 12 years, 9 months
|
Re: Obama's major post convention, post Palin bounce! [Re: AnonymousRabbit]
#8888558 - 09/06/08 09:35 PM (15 years, 4 months ago) |
|
|
Quote:
supernovasky said: National Gallup Tracking Obama 50, McCain 42 Obama +8 National Rasmussen Tracking Obama 51, McCain 45 Obama +6 National USA Today/Gallup* Obama 50, McCain 43 Obama +7 National Hotline/FD Obama 48, McCain 39 Obama +9 National CBS News Obama 48, McCain 40 Obama +8
These were all polls that came out today. There was some talk about Obama not having a post convention bounce. I beg to differ, especially after all of these polls come out. Here are the last polls before the convention:
National LA Times/Bloomberg Obama 45, McCain 43 Obama +2 National Reuters/Zogby Obama 41, McCain 46 McCain +5 National Reuters/Zogby Obama 39, McCain 44, Nader 2, Barr 3 McCain +5 National Battleground Obama 46, McCain 47 McCain +1 National NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl Obama 44, McCain 39, Nader 4, Barr 3 Obama +5 National LA Times/Bloomberg Obama 42, McCain 41, Nader 4, Barr 1 Obama +1
There are many things to notice out of all of this:
1) Obama goes from an average of 43-44 points before the convention, to 50 points after the convention. 2) McCain goes from an average of 45 points before the convention, to 42-43 points after the convention. 3) All of these polls that came out today happened AFTER the Palin pick. 4) One can assume that the negative coverage of Palin (seriously, did McCain even vet this lady at all?) is affecting McCain's candidacy negatively. There is a saying... that a vice president rarely does anything good for a candidate, but can do a whole lot of bad for a candidate. 5) Notice McCain's ceiling... rarely does he ever get above 45. In fact, his average so far this election cycle of 3 days of polling has NEVER been above 45. 6) Notice Obama's ceiling... before this, Obama could not break 50. If a competitor is breaking 50 in 3 polls in 1 day, news is not good for you. 7) These hurricanes are preempting the fesetivity of the RNC. Instead, the coverage is overlapping RNC coverage, and it looks like ANOTHER hurricane will hit by the end of the RNC, Hannah.
So as I said, the VERY first day that the Palin pick was made: I'm elated. She's not as good for you guys as you thinks he is. Most people see her for what she is, a gimmick meant to sway a voting bloc that quite honestly is not as big as the media has portrayed it to be.
All polls gotten from www.realclearpolitics.com
The McCain/Palin ticket wins 49.7% support, compared to 45.9% backing for the Obama/Biden ticket
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1548
The post-convention bounce is just starting. McCain should break 50% by Tuesday or Wednesday.
“McCain’s favorability rating increased from 50% favorable last week to 57% favorable now, a significant jump that indicates the GOP convention was a success. Among independent voters, 61% now have a favorable impression of him, compared to just 49% who said the same a week ago.
Nearly half - 49% - said they had a favorable opinion of Barack Obama, while 50% they had a negative impression of him. Among independent voters, 47% gave him favorable marks, compared to 46% who said the same thing last week.”
-------------------- America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure" We have "reckless fiscal policies" America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better Barack Obama
|
Gastronomicus
3-0-G



Registered: 03/31/05
Posts: 9,727
Last seen: 1 day, 11 hours
|
Re: Obama's major post convention, post Palin bounce! [Re: lonestar2004]
#8889498 - 09/07/08 02:08 AM (15 years, 4 months ago) |
|
|
By most accounts McCain is at an all time high post convention bounce of -2 behind Obama. Nice one Rebugs, don't you think that if you're going to win the election you should at least be ahead in the polls?
-------------------- Make my Funk the P Funk, I wants to get Funked up
LAGM2024
|
zappaisgod
horrid asshole


Registered: 02/11/04
Posts: 81,741
Loc: Fractallife's gym
Last seen: 7 years, 7 months
|
Re: Obama's major post convention, post Palin bounce! [Re: Gastronomicus]
#8889887 - 09/07/08 07:31 AM (15 years, 4 months ago) |
|
|
Not yet.
--------------------
|
lonestar2004
Live to party,work to affordit.



Registered: 10/03/04
Posts: 8,978
Loc: South Texas
Last seen: 12 years, 9 months
|
Re: Obama's major post convention, post Palin bounce! [Re: Gastronomicus]
#8892524 - 09/07/08 06:56 PM (15 years, 4 months ago) |
|
|
Quote:
Gastronomicus said: By most accounts McCain is at an all time high post convention bounce of -2 behind Obama. Nice one Rebugs, don't you think that if you're going to win the election you should at least be ahead in the polls?
McCain 54%
Obama 44%
In the new poll, taken Friday through Sunday, McCain leads Obama by 54%-44% among those seen as most likely to vote. The survey of 1,022 adults, including 959 registered voters, has a margin of error of +/— 3 points for both samples.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-09-07-poll_N.htm
-------------------- America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure" We have "reckless fiscal policies" America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better Barack Obama
|
Gastronomicus
3-0-G



Registered: 03/31/05
Posts: 9,727
Last seen: 1 day, 11 hours
|
Re: Obama's major post convention, post Palin bounce! [Re: lonestar2004]
#8892834 - 09/07/08 07:52 PM (15 years, 4 months ago) |
|
|
That's hardly accurate. Here's what the real polls say. Gallup has McCain up 3. Rasmussin has the race tied at 48. Also worth mentioning is that even the most conservative electoral estimates project Obama taking 280 delegates.
EDIT - Even CNN has Obama at +1 still. So, nice 10 point bounce, but it would be better if it was real
-------------------- Make my Funk the P Funk, I wants to get Funked up
LAGM2024
|
lonestar2004
Live to party,work to affordit.



Registered: 10/03/04
Posts: 8,978
Loc: South Texas
Last seen: 12 years, 9 months
|
Re: Obama's major post convention, post Palin bounce! [Re: Gastronomicus]
#8892877 - 09/07/08 07:58 PM (15 years, 4 months ago) |
|
|
Quote:
Gastronomicus said: That's hardly accurate. Here's what the real polls say. Gallup has McCain up 3. Rasmussin has the race tied at 48. Also worth mentioning is that even the most conservative electoral estimates project Obama taking 280 delegates.
This is a USA Today/Gallup Poll...
are you claiming they lied?
or they just made up some numbers?
WTF
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-09-07-poll_N.htm
-------------------- America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure" We have "reckless fiscal policies" America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better Barack Obama
|
Gastronomicus
3-0-G



Registered: 03/31/05
Posts: 9,727
Last seen: 1 day, 11 hours
|
Re: Obama's major post convention, post Palin bounce! [Re: lonestar2004]
#8893106 - 09/07/08 08:32 PM (15 years, 4 months ago) |
|
|
No I'm saying that it's not really an accurate poll. If you'll look at the actual Gallup poll (which would have been easy to do had you clicked my links) you'd see that McCain does not have a 10 point lead. That is to say that if the election was held today McCain would not take a 10 point lead in the popular vote.
-------------------- Make my Funk the P Funk, I wants to get Funked up
LAGM2024
|
Entropymancer

Registered: 07/16/05
Posts: 10,207
|
Re: Obama's major post convention, post Palin bounce! [Re: Gastronomicus]
#8893479 - 09/07/08 09:30 PM (15 years, 4 months ago) |
|
|
And you have to consider the state-by-state case. The best analysis of how things are likely to split in the elecoral college (that I've seen) comes from FiveThirtyEight.com
While the popular vote is likely to split fairly evenly, the electoral college is leaning towards Obama; this statistician has Obama's chance of winning at 68%. As others have mentioned, it's really too early to talk about polls much yet, but several key states are goign to need to reverse their trend to get McCain into office.
|
lonestar2004
Live to party,work to affordit.



Registered: 10/03/04
Posts: 8,978
Loc: South Texas
Last seen: 12 years, 9 months
|
Re: Obama's major post convention, post Palin bounce! [Re: Entropymancer]
#8893560 - 09/07/08 09:48 PM (15 years, 4 months ago) |
|
|
Quote:
Entropymancer said: And you have to consider the state-by-state case. The best analysis of how things are likely to split in the elecoral college (that I've seen) comes from FiveThirtyEight.com
While the popular vote is likely to split fairly evenly, the electoral college is leaning towards Obama; this statistician has Obama's chance of winning at 68%. As others have mentioned, it's really too early to talk about polls much yet, but several key states are goign to need to reverse their trend to get McCain into office.
I have to leave town for a few days. I will be interested to read what fivethirtyeight.com has to report when i return.
-------------------- America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure" We have "reckless fiscal policies" America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better Barack Obama
|
lonestar2004
Live to party,work to affordit.



Registered: 10/03/04
Posts: 8,978
Loc: South Texas
Last seen: 12 years, 9 months
|
Re: Obama's major post convention, post Palin bounce! [Re: lonestar2004]
#8917917 - 09/12/08 11:20 AM (15 years, 4 months ago) |
|
|
Electoral Vote Obama 266 McCain 272
Win Percentage Obama 49% McCain 51%
Popular Vote Obama 48% McCain 50%
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
-------------------- America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure" We have "reckless fiscal policies" America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better Barack Obama
|
Coaster
Baʿal



Registered: 05/22/06
Posts: 33,501
Loc: Deep in the Valley
Last seen: 12 years, 3 months
|
Re: Obama's major post convention, post Palin bounce! [Re: lonestar2004]
#8918619 - 09/12/08 01:45 PM (15 years, 4 months ago) |
|
|
its weird watching mccain and obama walking together, they harbor such animosity to each other
--------------------
|
Luddite
I watch Fox News


Registered: 03/23/06
Posts: 2,946
|
Re: Obama's major post convention, post Palin bounce! [Re: Coaster]
#8919343 - 09/12/08 03:47 PM (15 years, 4 months ago) |
|
|
Its not surprising to see someone who believes Obama's bullshit about energy also believes in the global warming hoax.
There's an interesting video on this page. http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives2/2008/06/020696.php
It's Whitey McCain! http://www.tbs.com/video/index/#/all-video/shows/frank-tv/154426
|
lonestar2004
Live to party,work to affordit.



Registered: 10/03/04
Posts: 8,978
Loc: South Texas
Last seen: 12 years, 9 months
|
Re: Obama's major post convention, post Palin bounce! [Re: Coaster]
#8919568 - 09/12/08 04:24 PM (15 years, 4 months ago) |
|
|
IMO it was a cool thing for them to do.
-------------------- America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure" We have "reckless fiscal policies" America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better Barack Obama
|
Coaster
Baʿal



Registered: 05/22/06
Posts: 33,501
Loc: Deep in the Valley
Last seen: 12 years, 3 months
|
Re: Obama's major post convention, post Palin bounce! [Re: lonestar2004]
#8919581 - 09/12/08 04:25 PM (15 years, 4 months ago) |
|
|
finally we agree
--------------------
|
antiPock
fighting entropy



Registered: 07/09/07
Posts: 2,509
Loc: Sol 3
|
Re: Obama's major post convention, post Palin bounce! [Re: Luddite]
#8920342 - 09/12/08 07:17 PM (15 years, 4 months ago) |
|
|
Quote:
Luddite said: Its not surprising to see someone who believes Obama's bullshit about energy also believes in the global warming hoax. ...
|
Luddite
I watch Fox News


Registered: 03/23/06
Posts: 2,946
|
Re: Obama's major post convention, post Palin bounce! [Re: antiPock]
#8922563 - 09/13/08 07:07 AM (15 years, 4 months ago) |
|
|
|
AnonymousRabbit
Comrade


Registered: 01/10/08
Posts: 8,993
Last seen: 1 year, 4 months
|
|
.
-------------------- .
Edited by AnonymousRabbit (05/19/22 01:09 AM)
|
lonestar2004
Live to party,work to affordit.



Registered: 10/03/04
Posts: 8,978
Loc: South Texas
Last seen: 12 years, 9 months
|
Re: Obama's major post convention, post Palin bounce! [Re: AnonymousRabbit]
#8983687 - 09/25/08 10:51 AM (15 years, 4 months ago) |
|
|
November 3rd is the most important poll day, but yeah McCain had a bad week.
-------------------- America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure" We have "reckless fiscal policies" America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better Barack Obama
|
AnonymousRabbit
Comrade


Registered: 01/10/08
Posts: 8,993
Last seen: 1 year, 4 months
|
|
.
-------------------- .
Edited by AnonymousRabbit (05/19/22 01:09 AM)
|
Seuss
Error: divide byzero



Registered: 04/27/01
Posts: 23,480
Loc: Caribbean
Last seen: 2 months, 19 days
|
Re: Obama's major post convention, post Palin bounce! [Re: AnonymousRabbit]
#8983884 - 09/25/08 11:39 AM (15 years, 4 months ago) |
|
|
-------------------- Just another spore in the wind.
|
Gastronomicus
3-0-G



Registered: 03/31/05
Posts: 9,727
Last seen: 1 day, 11 hours
|
Re: Obama's major post convention, post Palin bounce! [Re: AnonymousRabbit]
#8985108 - 09/25/08 03:51 PM (15 years, 4 months ago) |
|
|
Great news. I love fivethirtyeight.
-------------------- Make my Funk the P Funk, I wants to get Funked up
LAGM2024
|
|