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lonestar2004
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CNN Poll: Obama 49, McCain 48 (CONVENTION BUST?)
#8859620 - 09/01/08 10:15 AM (15 years, 6 months ago) |
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On the eve of the Republican convention, a new national poll suggests the race for the White House remains dead even.
A CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll released Sunday night shows the Obama-Biden ticket leading the McCain-Palin ticket by one point, 49 percent to 48 percent, a statistical dead heat.
The survey was conducted Friday through Sunday, after both the conclusion of the Democratic convention and McCain’s selection of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate.
A previous CNN poll, taken just one week earlier, suggested the race between Sens. McCain, R-Arizona, and Obama, D-Illinois, was tied at 47 percent each.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/08/31/cnn-poll-obama-49-mccain-48/
And now comes … the wait for “The Bounce.”
One thing presidential candidates hope they’ll get from their nominating conventions is a healthy “bounce” — a gain in popularity as measured by public opinion polls. Since both parties’ 1964 gatherings, candidates have enjoyed an average 10 percentage point gain in their margin against their opponent, based on calculations from figures provided by The Gallup Poll.
Since 1964, there’s been no real difference between the bounce enjoyed by the two parties. Democrats have averaged an 11-point gain, Republicans 9 points.
The biggest boost was the 30-point increase Bill Clinton gained when running for president for the first time in 1992. He never relinquished his lead.
The largest for Republicans: the 14-point increases George W. Bush gained in 2000 and that Richard Nixon enjoyed in 1968, and the 13-point bounce Ronald Reagan got in 1980. All three won their first races for president
The smallest bounces were the 4-point drop John Kerry saw in his margin against President Bush in 2004, and the 3-point reduction George McGovern endured in 1972 against President Nixon. Both Democrats lost.
http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/08/28/both-parties-seek-post-convention-bounce-in-polls/
-------------------- America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure" We have "reckless fiscal policies" America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better Barack Obama
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Chemy
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Re: CNN Poll: Obama 49, McCain 48 (CONVENTION BUST?) [Re: lonestar2004]
#8859787 - 09/01/08 10:55 AM (15 years, 6 months ago) |
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So, Obama has the lowest "bounce" in the history of the Democrats with a 1 point "bounce"?
If it's true I blame Biden.
-------------------- Alcoholics Anonymous Narcotics Anonymous Get help, help is free and available 24/7/365. God bless you all and I hope you receive the help you need to turn away from your lives of sin. Mushrooms and drugs make you gay, you can reverse this homosexual condition with rehab, get help! Stop being gay!
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lonestar2004
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Re: CNN Poll: Obama 49, McCain 48 (CONVENTION BUST?) [Re: Chemy]
#8859900 - 09/01/08 11:19 AM (15 years, 6 months ago) |
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Biden? from the HUGE state of Delaware....smirk:
-------------------- America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure" We have "reckless fiscal policies" America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better Barack Obama
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AnonymousRabbit
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. [Re: Chemy]
#8859908 - 09/01/08 11:22 AM (15 years, 6 months ago) |
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-------------------- .
Edited by AnonymousRabbit (05/18/22 11:16 PM)
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AnonymousRabbit
Comrade
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-------------------- .
Edited by AnonymousRabbit (05/18/22 11:16 PM)
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buckwheat
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Re: CNN Poll: Obama 49, McCain 48 (CONVENTION BUST?) [Re: lonestar2004]
#8861373 - 09/01/08 03:52 PM (15 years, 6 months ago) |
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When you think about it what conventions do is mega exposure. Obama was already overexposed long before the convention you could say he has hit a voter peak even before the convention.
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thedefone
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Re: CNN Poll: Obama 49, McCain 48 (CONVENTION BUST?) [Re: buckwheat]
#8865307 - 09/02/08 11:20 AM (15 years, 6 months ago) |
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Hmmm..
Rassmussen Poll: 51- Obama / 45- McCain = Obama +6
Gallup Poll: 50- Obama / 42- McCain = Obama +8
Hotline/FD: 48- Obama / 39- McCain = Obama +9
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html
-------------------- I am become death, the destroyer of worlds.
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pinkfloydms
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Re: CNN Poll: Obama 49, McCain 48 (CONVENTION BUST?) [Re: thedefone]
#8865317 - 09/02/08 11:26 AM (15 years, 6 months ago) |
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Yeah CNN is the only poll out there with it being that close.
-------------------- Muppet Said: so yeah: - 'sex' five times - once with a man - once with a cadaver - and thrice with actual women(all of which were prostitutes) Best story ever! www.panicstream.com
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lonestar2004
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Re: CNN Poll: Obama 49, McCain 48 (CONVENTION BUST?) [Re: thedefone]
#8865336 - 09/02/08 11:31 AM (15 years, 6 months ago) |
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Quote:
thedefone said: Hmmm..
Rassmussen Poll: 51- Obama / 45- McCain = Obama +6
Gallup Poll: 50- Obama / 42- McCain = Obama +8
Hotline/FD: 48- Obama / 39- McCain = Obama +9
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html
but President Palin has not given her speech yet!
its gonna kick assssssssss!
Super Bowl numbers for Sarah!!!!!
P.S. its rumored that McCain might also have a speech and that Obama has already had a speech!
-------------------- America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure" We have "reckless fiscal policies" America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better Barack Obama
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Chemy
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Re: CNN Poll: Obama 49, McCain 48 (CONVENTION BUST?) [Re: lonestar2004]
#8865866 - 09/02/08 01:25 PM (15 years, 6 months ago) |
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Quote:
David Paul Kuhn Mon Sep 1, 10:38 PM ET
Barack Obama’s post-Democratic National Convention bounce in the polls appears to be slightly smaller than the norm of past conventions, and it's gradually depreciating. ADVERTISEMENT
The Gallup daily tracking poll has found that since the conclusion of the convention, Obama has risen 4 percentage points in the polls, to lead McCain 49 percent to 43 percent today. That's a slightly smaller uptick in the polls than the 5- to 6-point bounce earned by a typical party nominee, by Gallup’s measure, since 1964. Obama and McCain were evenly split at 45 percentage points apiece prior to the Democratic convention, according to Gallup.
That outcome comes despite Obama’s speech before more than 80,000 people at Invesco Field in Denver on Thursday night, a political event that was also seen by about 40 million television viewers. It also comes as the Republican convention quietly got under way in St. Paul, and the national media gaze focuses southward to Hurricane Gustav.
Daily tracking polls by Gallup and Rasmussen Reports demonstrate that Obama has taken his greatest lead since July, if not the general election. But while Obama’s support remains significantly stronger than weeks ago, it appears that the post-convention bounce he earned may have already peaked.
On Saturday, Gallup reported Obama was ahead by 8 percentage points. By Monday, that lead had shrunk to 5 points. Rasmussen pegs Obama’s standing as relatively stable in recent days, with a 49 percent to 46 percent lead over McCain when “leaners” are included, a small but statistically insignificant improvement for McCain of 1 percentage point since Saturday.
CBS News reported Monday that Obama is now ahead in its poll, 48 to 40 percent, a 3-point uptick in Obama’s standing compared to its poll prior to the Democratic convention. Obama’s 3-point bounce exceeds that of John F. Kerry, the Democratic presidential nominee in 2004 who did not rise in the polls following his convention. But Obama’s bounce is less than a third of what Al Gore received in 2000 and Bill Clinton received in 1992. Even Bob Dole, following the 1996 Republican convention, received a 4-point bounce in the polls, 1 point more than Obama.
But any Obama bounce, if it is sustained, could be said to be a victory for Democrats. In the days since Obama gave his address, the news cycles have been captured by the unveiling of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as John McCain's running mate, the opening of the Republican convention and the threat posed by Hurricane Gustav.
There have been only three previous back-to-back conventions, most recently in 1956. The effect of the GOP convention on the polls will not be known for days.
A CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll and a Zogby Interactive flash poll, both completed over the weekend, have found the presidential race is in a dead heat. According to both polls, Obama attained no statistically significant convention bounce.
Whether Obama is ahead or tied with McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee will now come into the Republican convention with his best opportunity yet to break through his own ceiling and take a lead in the presidential race.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/13068
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lonestar2004
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Re: CNN Poll: Obama 49, McCain 48 (CONVENTION BUST?) [Re: Chemy]
#8865914 - 09/02/08 01:36 PM (15 years, 6 months ago) |
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yeah polling is all over the place, lets see what it looks like next week after both Conventions are completed.
-------------------- America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure" We have "reckless fiscal policies" America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better Barack Obama
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Phred
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Re: CNN Poll: Obama 49, McCain 48 (CONVENTION BUST?) [Re: lonestar2004]
#8866006 - 09/02/08 01:53 PM (15 years, 6 months ago) |
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When it comes to polls over the last two election cycles, historically Rasmussen has been the most accurate, with Gallup being not far behind them. The worst (by a lot) for accuracy is Zogby, though USA Today pretty much sucks bay water too.
This far out from election day (before the RNC, even), polls mean pretty much dick, but for those who find it comforting to follow opinion tracking, stick with Rasmussen - even if you don't like what it tells you.
Phred
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Redstorm
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Re: CNN Poll: Obama 49, McCain 48 (CONVENTION BUST?) [Re: Phred]
#8866055 - 09/02/08 02:02 PM (15 years, 6 months ago) |
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I could not agree more. Rasmussen is all I follow for pretty much any type of polling available.
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