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InvisibleBlimeyGrimey
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WE will become the machine elves....
    #8679136 - 07/25/08 03:12 AM (15 years, 9 months ago)

Intel: Human and computer intelligence will merge in 40 years


Intel: Human and computer intelligence will merge in 40 years
Sharon Gaudin

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July 23, 2008 (Computerworld) At Intel Corp., just passing its 40th anniversary and with myriad chips in its historical roster, a top company exec looks 40 years into the future to a time when human intelligence and machine intelligence have begun to merge.

Justin Rattner, CTO and a senior fellow at Intel, told Computerworld that perhaps as early as 2012 we'll see the lines between human and machine intelligence begin to blur. Nanoscale chips or machines will move through our bodies, fixing deteriorating organs or unclogging arteries. Sensors will float around our internal systems monitoring our blood sugar levels and heart rates, and alerting doctors to potential health problems.

Virtual worlds will become increasingly realistic, while robots will develop enough intelligence and human-like characteristics that they'll become companions, not merely vacuum cleaners and toys.

Most aspects of our lives, in fact, will be very different as we close in on the year 2050. Computing will be less about launching applications and more about living lives in which computers are inextricably woven into our daily activities.

"What we think of as a computer and what we think of as IT, in general, is likely to change," said Rattner, who has been at Intel for 35 of the company's 40 years. "The intelligent systems will move from being information systems to intelligent systems that will carry out a whole variety of tasks that we just won't think of as computing tasks.... The technology will find its way into so many things we do, and we won't even think about it. The explicit way we've done computing in the past will be there, but it will be a very small subset of what we'll be doing."

Intel hit its 40th anniversary last Friday. The company launched its first microprocessor in 1971, developed a processor with more than 1 million transistors in 1989, and late in 2007 packed 820 million transistors onto a single chip.

While chip advancements will continue throughout the semiconductor industry, technology advancements in general will start to change, according to Rattner.

"When you think back on where we were [decades ago] ... computers were still things that largely sat in big rooms behind big windows and were attended to by computing gurus or priests," he added. "In the 40 years, we've just completely changed the way people think about computers and computing. It's gone from a very expensive, very exclusive kind of technology to something that is unquestionably ubiquitous -- from the computers on our desks to the computers in our cell phones."

In the next 40 years, computer chips will extend beyond our computers and phones, as people want to become more entrenched in virtual worlds and computers learn to react to our motions and thoughts.

"When you see how intense the reaction is to things like the iPhone, with its use of touch and its sensitivity to motion, you begin to get a sense of, 'Gee, if machines understand the physical world and were capable of reacting to our voices, to our movements and gestures and touch, how much closer would we feel to them?'" asked Rattner. "At the same time, of course, we would like the ability to become more a part of these artificial or virtual worlds that are created entirely within the machine. We're starting to see, with things like Second Life and now Lively from Google, the ability of these machines to create these worlds that are much more comfortable for us to experience and be a part of."

As machine learning and computer perception progresses, machines will take on more and more human-like characteristics, he added. Recently, scientists have been putting electrodes into living neurons in living brains, but some researchers are working on ways to transfer brain waves and organic information without the electrodes, which wouldn't be physically intrusive.

"You can imagine a future where, in fact, not just our very senses will be engaged, but our thoughts will drive machine behavior," said Rattner. "You can see how that boundary starts to soften and begins to blur.... There's no question in my mind that the technology will bring these two unique and distinct forms of intelligence together."


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OfflineSeussA
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Re: WE will become the machine elves.... [Re: BlimeyGrimey]
    #8679203 - 07/25/08 04:07 AM (15 years, 9 months ago)

> Intel: Human and computer intelligence will merge in 40 years

I was at the 50-year anniversary of ACM (association for computing machinery) back in 1997 and they had a lot of talks about what would happened in the last 50-years and what would happen in the next 50-years with respect to computing.  The general consensus was that we would be wearing computers and cars would drive themselves within the next 10-years.  Ten years have come and gone and people are not wearing computers (though things like the iPhone are close) and cars are certainly not driving themselves yet.  I think people tend to overestimate how quickly new technology can be integrated into everyday consumer life.


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InvisiblePenguarky Tunguin
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Re: WE will become the machine elves.... [Re: Seuss]
    #8684231 - 07/26/08 01:24 PM (15 years, 9 months ago)

I sometimes think that these predictions scientists and analysts make are based off of ideas that see no impediment to the final goal. 

Cars that drive themselves?  We're close to that, with cars that can parallel park by themselves.  But there are forces taking place that have impeding upon those predictions.

Imagine where we'd be if we invested the $1 trillion currently spent in the Middle East and invested it a myriad of technologies.  If we had done that we'd definitely see cars driving themselves etc.


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OfflineMadtowntripper
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Re: WE will become the machine elves.... [Re: Penguarky Tunguin]
    #8685714 - 07/26/08 08:39 PM (15 years, 9 months ago)

I want automated highways for the most efficient use of space and speed and the conservation of gas.


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After one comes, through contact with it's administrators, no longer to cherish greatly the law as a remedy in abuses, then the bottle becomes a sovereign means of direct action.  If you cannot throw it at least you can always drink out of it.  - Ernest Hemingway

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He who learns must suffer. And even in our sleep pain that cannot forget falls drop by drop upon the heart, and in our own despair, against our will, comes wisdom to us by the awful grace of God.  - Aeschylus

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OfflineNephlyte
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Re: WE will become the machine elves.... [Re: Seuss]
    #8687539 - 07/27/08 08:39 AM (15 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

Seuss said:

The general consensus was that we would be wearing computers and cars would drive themselves within the next 10-years.  Ten years have come and gone and people are not wearing computers (though things like the iPhone are close) and cars are certainly not driving themselves yet.  I think people tend to overestimate how quickly new technology can be integrated into everyday consumer life.




Well, i think that people tend to underestimate what consumers are going to demand.  People don't want to wear a computer and they want to drive themselves around.  If there was more demand from buyers, we have the technology today to make a car that mostly drives around.  Also, look at the technology we already have added to many cars.  Auto parallel parking, sensors and cameras to assist in backing up, sensors on the front of cars which hit the brakes if a collision is imminent and of course cruise control in every vehicle that is produced today. (of course that has existed for some time, but now its standard).

And as far as wearing computers, we're not wearing them like shirts, but we've shrunk them to go in our pockets.  We don't have heads up displays or anything, but they are available, people just don't want to wear them.


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"To do right is to know what you want. Now when you are dissatisfied with yourself it's because you are after something you don't really want. What objects are you proposing to yourself? Are they the objects you really value? If they are not, you are cheating yourself. I don't meant that if you chose to pursue the objects you most value, you will attain them; of course not. Your experience will tell you that. But success in getting after much labor what you really don't care for is the bitterest and most ridiculous failure." -George Santayana

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