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Ego Death
Justadropofwaterinanendlesssea



Registered: 04/27/03
Posts: 10,447
Loc: The War Machine
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A question
#8432276 - 05/22/08 09:44 AM (16 years, 22 hours ago) |
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I have a gold ring as a prize if you can guess which box I put it in.
There are 3 boxes, you cannot look as I place the ring in 1 of the boxes.
Now, take a guess at the box 1,2 or 3?
I offer to help you. I will take away 1 of the boxes that is empty.
Now I ask would you like to stick with your original guess or would you like to swap to the other remaining box? So, stick or swap? What do you think?
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WhiskeyClone
Not here


Registered: 06/25/01
Posts: 16,509
Loc: Longitudinal Center of Canada ...
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We don't know which one you took away. I guessed #1, if it is gone now, I'll try #2.
Where's my ring?
-------------------- Welcome evermore to gods and men is the self-helping man. For him all doors are flung wide: him all tongues greet, all honors crown, all eyes follow with desire. Our love goes out to him and embraces him, because he did not need it. ~ R.W. Emerson, "Self-Reliance"
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Middleman

Registered: 07/11/99
Posts: 8,399
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Have you seen the movie '21'? 
Swap. I still don't really understand why it makes a difference statistically.
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just me
Friend



Registered: 07/01/07
Posts: 9,745
Loc: IL/MO/FL/TX/HI/OR
Last seen: 4 years, 10 months
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Quote:
WhiskeyClone said: We don't know which one you took away. I guessed #1, if it is gone now, I'll try #2.
Where's my ring?
well thats cheating! whats ur FINAL guess, cuz i was gonna say #2 and stick with it, but if youre playin flip flop then
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  -------------------------------------------------- -pEaCeLoVeGoDbLeSs- "The Downfall of Mankind; is Believing He Has Limitations."
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Middleman

Registered: 07/11/99
Posts: 8,399
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Quote:
WhiskeyClone said: We don't know which one you took away. I guessed #1, if it is gone now, I'll try #2.
Where's my ring?
He won't take away the one you guessed. Do you still swap?
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Quarryman
Stranger


Registered: 07/29/07
Posts: 806
Loc: Tennessee
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Swap
Only 1/3 of the time you will have got it right the first time, so the chances are you got it wrong and should swap.
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WhiskeyClone
Not here


Registered: 06/25/01
Posts: 16,509
Loc: Longitudinal Center of Canada ...
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Quote:
Quarryman said: Swap
Only 1/3 of the time you will have got it right the first time, so the chances are you got it wrong and should swap.
Ah.. I knew there was something to it.
I remember this problem in the form of a game show with three doors. I missed it then too.
-------------------- Welcome evermore to gods and men is the self-helping man. For him all doors are flung wide: him all tongues greet, all honors crown, all eyes follow with desire. Our love goes out to him and embraces him, because he did not need it. ~ R.W. Emerson, "Self-Reliance"
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Diploid
Cuban


Registered: 01/09/03
Posts: 19,274
Loc: Rabbit Hole
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Re: A question (moved) [Re: Ego Death]
#8432352 - 05/22/08 10:20 AM (16 years, 22 hours ago) |
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This thread was moved from Philosophy & Spirituality.
Reason: This has nothing to do with P&S, but it IS a classic problem in the branch of mathematics called Game Theory, so I'm moving this to the Science forum.
BTW, the correct answer to optimize your chance of finding the ring is to swap. I'll let the geeks in the Science forum go into the details.
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woohoo1000
pebble toss



Registered: 04/23/08
Posts: 168
Last seen: 15 years, 2 months
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Re: A question (moved) [Re: Diploid]
#8432367 - 05/22/08 10:25 AM (16 years, 22 hours ago) |
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Paradox?
-------------------- one love
Edited by woohoo1000 (05/22/08 10:26 AM)
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Ego Death
Justadropofwaterinanendlesssea



Registered: 04/27/03
Posts: 10,447
Loc: The War Machine
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Re: A question (moved) [Re: Diploid]
#8432368 - 05/22/08 10:25 AM (16 years, 22 hours ago) |
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Quote:
Philosophy is the discipline concerned with questions of how one should live (ethics); what sorts of things exist (metaphysics); the nature of knowledge (epistemology); and the principles of reasoning (logic).
This question is intended for philosophical answers. Obviously I know the answer. Its not a science question lol.
The point is that our basic principals of reasoning are often flawed even though they may seem simple and correct.
Well done to those of you that got it/knew it - but theres no gold ring
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WhiskeyClone
Not here


Registered: 06/25/01
Posts: 16,509
Loc: Longitudinal Center of Canada ...
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Re: A question (moved) [Re: woohoo1000]
#8432383 - 05/22/08 10:28 AM (16 years, 22 hours ago) |
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-------------------- Welcome evermore to gods and men is the self-helping man. For him all doors are flung wide: him all tongues greet, all honors crown, all eyes follow with desire. Our love goes out to him and embraces him, because he did not need it. ~ R.W. Emerson, "Self-Reliance"
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NIMH
MadCap



Registered: 05/13/08
Posts: 831
Last seen: 6 years, 2 months
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Quote:
WhiskeyClone said: We don't know which one you took away. I guessed #1, if it is gone now, I'll try #2.
Where's my ring?
Thats funny shit right there.
-------------------- I must not Fear. Fear is the mindkiller . Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. ONLY I WILL REMAIN.
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Seuss
Error: divide byzero



Registered: 04/27/01
Posts: 23,480
Loc: Caribbean
Last seen: 3 months, 8 days
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Re: A question (moved) [Re: Diploid]
#8433912 - 05/22/08 05:48 PM (16 years, 14 hours ago) |
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.
-------------------- Just another spore in the wind.
Edited by Seuss (05/22/08 05:49 PM)
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johnm214



Registered: 05/31/07
Posts: 17,582
Loc: Americas
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Re: A question (moved) [Re: Seuss]
#8433922 - 05/22/08 05:50 PM (16 years, 14 hours ago) |
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Quote:
Seuss said: .
agreed
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just me
Friend



Registered: 07/01/07
Posts: 9,745
Loc: IL/MO/FL/TX/HI/OR
Last seen: 4 years, 10 months
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Re: A question (moved) [Re: johnm214]
#8433928 - 05/22/08 05:51 PM (16 years, 14 hours ago) |
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Quote:
johnm214 said:
Quote:
Seuss said: .
agreed
did you see what he had written at first?
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  -------------------------------------------------- -pEaCeLoVeGoDbLeSs- "The Downfall of Mankind; is Believing He Has Limitations."
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johnm214



Registered: 05/31/07
Posts: 17,582
Loc: Americas
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Re: A question (moved) [Re: just me]
#8434140 - 05/22/08 06:48 PM (16 years, 13 hours ago) |
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What did he write at first? --- -- --. ? / -.-- --- ..- / -.-. .-. .- -.-. -.- . -.. / - .... . / -.-. --- -.. . / -.-- --- ..- / .--- .- -.-. -.- .- ... ... --..-- / .-.. --- .-..
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just me
Friend



Registered: 07/01/07
Posts: 9,745
Loc: IL/MO/FL/TX/HI/OR
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Re: A question (moved) [Re: johnm214]
#8434142 - 05/22/08 06:48 PM (16 years, 13 hours ago) |
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buncha mumbo jumbo
--------------------
  -------------------------------------------------- -pEaCeLoVeGoDbLeSs- "The Downfall of Mankind; is Believing He Has Limitations."
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Cameron
Too Many Words



Registered: 10/31/07
Posts: 4,437
Loc: Canada
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Re: A question (moved) [Re: just me]
#8434919 - 05/22/08 10:22 PM (16 years, 10 hours ago) |
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If you take one empty box away, isn't it still a 50/50 chance to get the ring, whether you switch your answer or not? If the ring is in box 2, and you originally chose box 1, then switching your answer will win you the ring, but when reversed (two options being the 50/50 chance), the same move loses you the ring. What am I missing?
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Cameron
Too Many Words



Registered: 10/31/07
Posts: 4,437
Loc: Canada
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Re: A question (moved) [Re: Cameron]
#8435011 - 05/22/08 10:41 PM (16 years, 9 hours ago) |
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OK, I get it now (thanks Wikipedia). It's the way the question is worded. If the person removing one of the boxes knows it is empty, then the box that neither of you chose is 66% likely to be the ring, because your box was 33% at the start - the knowledge of the removed box's contents transfers the 33% probability from that box. If the person removing the box didn't know the contents, then they have a 33% chance of removing the car, thereby eliminating any advantage that would be gained by removing an empty box with the knowledge of its contents.
Tough question.
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just me
Friend



Registered: 07/01/07
Posts: 9,745
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Re: A question (moved) [Re: Cameron]
#8435061 - 05/22/08 10:53 PM (16 years, 9 hours ago) |
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WHO GETS THE DAM RING?!?!?
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  -------------------------------------------------- -pEaCeLoVeGoDbLeSs- "The Downfall of Mankind; is Believing He Has Limitations."
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