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 AnonymousRabbit
Comrade
Registered: 01/10/08
Posts: 8,993
Last seen: 8 months, 30 days
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#8384609 - 05/10/08 08:29 AM (15 years, 27 days ago) |
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Edited by AnonymousRabbit (05/19/22 01:10 AM)
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Seuss
Error: divide byzero
Registered: 04/27/01
Posts: 23,480
Loc: Caribbean
Last seen: 5 months, 19 days
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Re: Obama is now polling QUITE ahead of McCain (+11, +6, +4, etc) [Re: AnonymousRabbit]
#8384617 - 05/10/08 08:36 AM (15 years, 27 days ago) |
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> Just out of curiousity, why do you think Obama is polling so far ahead of McCain right now?
I think it is mostly 'error'. Not in the sense that the statistics/science behind the polls are inaccurate, but rather the polls are trying to measure something which is silly to try and measure at this time. Once the Democrats settle on somebody, and once we have a few debates between somebody and McCain, then the polls will start to reflect who people are actually going to vote for.
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Just another spore in the wind.
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AnonymousRabbit
Comrade
Registered: 01/10/08
Posts: 8,993
Last seen: 8 months, 30 days
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. [Re: Seuss]
#8384629 - 05/10/08 08:44 AM (15 years, 27 days ago) |
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Edited by AnonymousRabbit (05/19/22 01:10 AM)
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 afoaf
CEO DBK?
Registered: 11/08/02
Posts: 32,665
Loc: Ripple's Heart
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Re: Obama is now polling QUITE ahead of McCain (+11, +6, +4, etc) [Re: AnonymousRabbit]
#8384691 - 05/10/08 09:14 AM (15 years, 27 days ago) |
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an average of +6 doesn't strike me as "QUITE ahead"
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All I know is The Growery is a place where losers who get banned here go.
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AnonymousRabbit
Comrade
Registered: 01/10/08
Posts: 8,993
Last seen: 8 months, 30 days
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#8384704 - 05/10/08 09:19 AM (15 years, 27 days ago) |
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Edited by AnonymousRabbit (05/19/22 01:10 AM)
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Redstorm
Prince of Bugs
Registered: 10/08/02
Posts: 44,174
Last seen: 6 years, 9 months
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Re: Obama is now polling QUITE ahead of McCain (+11, +6, +4, etc) [Re: afoaf]
#8384707 - 05/10/08 09:22 AM (15 years, 27 days ago) |
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I'm not saying these polls are a valid representation of what will happen come November, but plus 6 is quite considerable when you note that most elections are won by less than 5 percentage points.
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Seuss
Error: divide byzero
Registered: 04/27/01
Posts: 23,480
Loc: Caribbean
Last seen: 5 months, 19 days
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Re: Obama is now polling QUITE ahead of McCain (+11, +6, +4, etc) [Re: AnonymousRabbit]
#8384804 - 05/10/08 10:20 AM (15 years, 27 days ago) |
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> I've got to think that public opinion has turned in his favor, at the very least.
Today, perhaps. Public opinion is a fickle thing that can change over trivialities from day to day. Of course, it doesn't hurt to have the public opinion in your favor, and it has the potential to become the wave that Obama rides to gain the needed supercorrupt, er superdelegate votes that he needs for the nomination. Time will tell.
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Just another spore in the wind.
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Yossarian22
Stranger
Registered: 09/12/07
Posts: 415
Last seen: 8 years, 5 months
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Re: Obama is now polling QUITE ahead of McCain (+11, +6, +4, etc) [Re: Seuss]
#8385034 - 05/10/08 11:57 AM (15 years, 27 days ago) |
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My pessimistic side says that these numbers are because voters are still thinking of issues and see McCain as a continuation of the Bush legacy. Once the general starts approaching I have no doubt the Republican smear machine will be as geared up as ever and ferociously desperate to boot. I just hope Obama can keep the focus on McCain's policies instead of the idiotic guilt-by-association smear du jour.
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danknugz81
spiralingdownward
Registered: 02/22/08
Posts: 882
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Re: Obama is now polling QUITE ahead of McCain (+11, +6, +4, etc) [Re: Yossarian22]
#8385083 - 05/10/08 12:16 PM (15 years, 27 days ago) |
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McCain is a weak candidate so it comes to no surprise to me that Obama is polling ahead of him. I think people have come to realize that he's a flip-flopper on issues, and how can you take someone who changes opinions so frequently seriously? While Fox news and the other propaganda outlets have been going on ad nauseum about the revernend wright "controversy" (which no one but sean hannity gives a shit about) they have neglected to mention McCain's nutcase preacher Hagee, and allegations of McCain campaign fraud. is it really surprising that they're covering up for their boy?
i really hope Ron Paul stays in this election to at least keep it somewhat interesting. the other candidates suck
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Mushmonkey
shiftlesslayabout
Registered: 09/25/03
Posts: 10,865
Last seen: 4 months, 9 days
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Re: Obama is now polling QUITE ahead of McCain (+11, +6, +4, etc) [Re: danknugz81]
#8385426 - 05/10/08 01:58 PM (15 years, 27 days ago) |
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mccain's a weak candidate, but so are all of them.
even obama. obama strikes me like kennedy.. when it comes down to it he hasn't done shit, won't do shit, but he's loved anyway.
why is he polling ahead? because the race hasn't started and he's been on the news, which probably means most people are so dumb they misunderstand the question and answer who they're voting for right now. or perhaps they randomly called more black people in these recent polls -- obama's pretty much got that vote locked down. lol, race isnt an issue, lol.
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i finally got around to making a sig
revel in its glory and quake in fear at its might
grar.
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afoaf
CEO DBK?
Registered: 11/08/02
Posts: 32,665
Loc: Ripple's Heart
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Re: Obama is now polling QUITE ahead of McCain (+11, +6, +4, etc) [Re: Redstorm]
#8385521 - 05/10/08 02:22 PM (15 years, 27 days ago) |
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is that across all elected offices?
the last 2 presidential elections seem to be the exception to the rule.
80 - 90.9 v 9.1
84 - 97.6 v 2.4
88 - 79.2 v 20.6
92 - 68.8 v 31.2
96 - 70.4 v 29.6
00 - 50.4 v 49.4
04 - 53.2 v 46.7
http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
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All I know is The Growery is a place where losers who get banned here go.
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Seuss
Error: divide byzero
Registered: 04/27/01
Posts: 23,480
Loc: Caribbean
Last seen: 5 months, 19 days
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Re: Obama is now polling QUITE ahead of McCain (+11, +6, +4, etc) [Re: afoaf]
#8385557 - 05/10/08 02:30 PM (15 years, 27 days ago) |
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> the last 2 presidential elections seem to be the exception to the rule.
Interesting... Maybe those folks with the tinfoil hats are on to something here. 
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Just another spore in the wind.
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danknugz81
spiralingdownward
Registered: 02/22/08
Posts: 882
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Re: Obama is now polling QUITE ahead of McCain (+11, +6, +4, etc) [Re: Mushmonkey]
#8385641 - 05/10/08 02:49 PM (15 years, 27 days ago) |
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Quote:
Mushmonkey said:
mccain's a weak candidate, but so are all of them.
even obama. obama strikes me like kennedy.. when it comes down to it he hasn't done shit, won't do shit, but he's loved anyway.
why is he polling ahead? because the race hasn't started and he's been on the news, which probably means most people are so dumb they misunderstand the question and answer who they're voting for right now. or perhaps they randomly called more black people in these recent polls -- obama's pretty much got that vote locked down. lol, race isnt an issue, lol.
i agree that obama hasnt done much of anything and isnt the strongest candidate. the thing with obama is that he represents "change". while most informed people know that his policies are nothing revolutionary, the majority of americans see a black man as president as a HUGE change (which it is, if you view things in terms of race.)
i think the one thing obama has going for him above all the other candidates is his "likability" factor. "conservatives" seem to think that the Hamas leader giving his obama endorsement is a bad thing, while i view it as a positive - it means that diplomacy might be an option rather than just war-mongering. we're already in a war we cant afford to pay for and these fucks want to get us into potentially 2 more wars (Iran and Venezuela)? i just dont see the logic in it at all.
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AnonymousRabbit
Comrade
Registered: 01/10/08
Posts: 8,993
Last seen: 8 months, 30 days
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Edited by AnonymousRabbit (05/19/22 01:10 AM)
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AnonymousRabbit
Comrade
Registered: 01/10/08
Posts: 8,993
Last seen: 8 months, 30 days
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Edited by AnonymousRabbit (05/19/22 01:10 AM)
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afoaf
CEO DBK?
Registered: 11/08/02
Posts: 32,665
Loc: Ripple's Heart
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Re: Obama is now polling QUITE ahead of McCain (+11, +6, +4, etc) [Re: AnonymousRabbit]
#8387749 - 05/11/08 12:35 AM (15 years, 27 days ago) |
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there is a big difference between the popular vote
and the electoral college vote.
last I checked american presidential elections were
decided by electoral college votes.
perhaps it is unfair to compare polling values with
electoral college results, I will concede that, but
by and large the gap between winner and loser in
US presidential elections is by and large more than
5%.
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All I know is The Growery is a place where losers who get banned here go.
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Seuss
Error: divide byzero
Registered: 04/27/01
Posts: 23,480
Loc: Caribbean
Last seen: 5 months, 19 days
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Re: Obama is now polling QUITE ahead of McCain (+11, +6, +4, etc) [Re: danknugz81]
#8388281 - 05/11/08 07:33 AM (15 years, 26 days ago) |
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> the thing with obama is that he represents "change".
Unfortunately, Obama's way of changing equates to extreme socialism. Even worse, it isn't US socialism, but world wide socialism supported by the US taxpayer. Gah, the next four years are going to suck, regardless of which of the three gets elected.
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Just another spore in the wind.
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Yossarian22
Stranger
Registered: 09/12/07
Posts: 415
Last seen: 8 years, 5 months
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Re: Obama is now polling QUITE ahead of McCain (+11, +6, +4, etc) [Re: Seuss]
#8388435 - 05/11/08 09:09 AM (15 years, 26 days ago) |
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Quote:
Seuss said:
> the thing with obama is that he represents "change".
Unfortunately, Obama's way of changing equates to extreme socialism. Even worse, it isn't US socialism, but world wide socialism supported by the US taxpayer. Gah, the next four years are going to suck, regardless of which of the three gets elected.
What in God's name are you rambling on about? Do you honestly think a center-left American politician is a member of ComIntern or something? What policies of his do you consider "extreme socialism"?
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afoaf
CEO DBK?
Registered: 11/08/02
Posts: 32,665
Loc: Ripple's Heart
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Re: Obama is now polling QUITE ahead of McCain (+11, +6, +4, etc) [Re: Yossarian22]
#8388487 - 05/11/08 09:33 AM (15 years, 26 days ago) |
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universal health care, dictating acceptable corporate profit levels
and any of the other ridiculous bullshit he's proposed in an effort
to close that "gap".
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All I know is The Growery is a place where losers who get banned here go.
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AnonymousRabbit
Comrade
Registered: 01/10/08
Posts: 8,993
Last seen: 8 months, 30 days
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. [Re: afoaf]
#8388499 - 05/11/08 09:38 AM (15 years, 26 days ago) |
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Edited by AnonymousRabbit (05/19/22 01:10 AM)
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afoaf
CEO DBK?
Registered: 11/08/02
Posts: 32,665
Loc: Ripple's Heart
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Re: Obama is now polling QUITE ahead of McCain (+11, +6, +4, etc) [Re: AnonymousRabbit]
#8388587 - 05/11/08 10:29 AM (15 years, 26 days ago) |
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I do look forward in a shift to our foreign policy and a reduction
of the fox guarding the henhouse...ie. bush's appointments of former
industry lobbyists to oversight positions in the various federal
bureaucracy (FCC, Interior, EPA, etc).
This is why I don't have any qualms backing the guy, overall.
But there are plenty of things people get all uppity about when it
comes to Obama...not the least of which is the fact that he's clearly
a muslim mole and is possibly connected to Saddam Hussein via a
cleverly hidden middle name.
I'M WATCHING YOU BRAK.
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All I know is The Growery is a place where losers who get banned here go.
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Yossarian22
Stranger
Registered: 09/12/07
Posts: 415
Last seen: 8 years, 5 months
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Re: Obama is now polling QUITE ahead of McCain (+11, +6, +4, etc) [Re: afoaf]
#8388628 - 05/11/08 10:49 AM (15 years, 26 days ago) |
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Quote:
afoaf said:
universal health care, dictating acceptable corporate profit levels
and any of the other ridiculous bullshit he's proposed in an effort
to close that "gap".
When did Obama ever advocate a legal limit to corporate profits? And I'd hardly consider universal health care to be "extreme socialism" considering every other developed nation has it and the vast majority of Americans want it. I guess it's extreme if you also consider socialized schools, socialized fire departments and socialized police to be "extreme".
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numonkei
Back! From thedigestive tractof dave theiguana!
Registered: 04/12/06
Posts: 2,500
Loc: A Tree
Last seen: 6 years, 2 months
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Re: Obama is now polling QUITE ahead of McCain (+11, +6, +4, etc) [Re: Yossarian22]
#8388872 - 05/11/08 12:27 PM (15 years, 26 days ago) |
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We NEED a socialist in office. A REAL socialistic ideal if we are to not become anything aside from a collection of various privately-owned entities at the government level.
The founding fathers created this government to PROTECT the average man with the average voice from those of aristocratic means. Over the past 100+ years this government has been off and on with the privatization of govt. function yet in the past 8 years almost ALL of the government has been privatized.
I have friends overseas fighting this crusade/fiscal "war" right now. They see this as a logical extension of economic free-market bullshit under guise of an opportunity, (i.e. twin towers). The competition between the organizations such as Blackwater and the actual standing USA armed forces is a dangerous dividend that, while in the short term may stimulate economic interest for the well or moderately well monied investor, WILL result in eventual fragmentation and destruction of this country and it's, (apparently restrained to symbolic, unless you happen to be one of the 4% living within what would be the modern 'status quo'), self-evident freedoms.
Historically, this is the point where we shit or get off the pot. We elect someone with some apparent sense of government at all, which is not to be found in McCain whatsoever, or we risk loosing the unity of nation to a totalitarian economic state with the wealthy exercising full command over the citizenry. We are dangerously close to this already.
The fact that those who have always been held with some regard, (middle-class, white, Christians), are AWAKENING to the fact that they are being bled is a sign of where we are. The fact that Obama genuinely feels like his interests are of those of perpetuation of freedom and advancement from this current socio-political situation are the reason he is/will likely be doing well. The media has fumbled a bit recently. This deal w/ Wright, Weather Underground connections, etc. are being played to show that he may be a danger to commonly held philosophy are playing against him.
The access to information we have recently accrued is beginning to catch up. These connections are, against many predictions, increasing his appeal. We WANT a radical, even if many of us refuse to admit it.
~Monk
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phi1618
old hand
Registered: 02/14/04
Posts: 4,102
Last seen: 13 years, 26 days
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Re: Obama is now polling QUITE ahead of McCain (+11, +6, +4, etc) [Re: AnonymousRabbit]
#8389055 - 05/11/08 01:15 PM (15 years, 26 days ago) |
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interesting, but it's too early for polls to mean much.
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Annapurna1
liberal pussy
Registered: 05/21/02
Posts: 5,646
Loc: innsmouth..MA
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Re: Obama is now polling QUITE ahead of McCain (+11, +6, +4, etc) [Re: AnonymousRabbit]
#8389223 - 05/11/08 02:05 PM (15 years, 26 days ago) |
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a few bullet points ..
bullet point 1) ..6% doesnt mean much when the same poll shows 14% still undecided...
bullet point 2) ..the demographics of swing states gives the repugnicans a huge handicap in a close vote...
bullet point 3) ..the bradley effect...
bullet point 4) ..hillary..OTOH..has lost favour with the same "bradley voters"..who dont like to be reminded that their racist chicken-turds...
bullet point 5) ..given all the above..the democrats dont have a viable candidate.. and the poo-bahs of the party will have to rush to draught a new candiate in august...
bullet point 6) ..if the repugnicans win on racial politics..it will not only be a tragedy policy-wise..but will also firmly reestablish amerikkka as an overtly racist country...
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"anchor blocks counteract the process of pontiprobation..while omalean globes regulize the pressure"...
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Mushmonkey
shiftlesslayabout
Registered: 09/25/03
Posts: 10,865
Last seen: 4 months, 9 days
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Re: Obama is now polling QUITE ahead of McCain (+11, +6, +4, etc) [Re: Annapurna1]
#8389250 - 05/11/08 02:13 PM (15 years, 26 days ago) |
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Clarify point 6.
Are you making the claim that if america does not elect a black man president, that america is racist?
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i finally got around to making a sig
revel in its glory and quake in fear at its might
grar.
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Yossarian22
Stranger
Registered: 09/12/07
Posts: 415
Last seen: 8 years, 5 months
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Re: Obama is now polling QUITE ahead of McCain (+11, +6, +4, etc) [Re: Annapurna1]
#8389310 - 05/11/08 02:29 PM (15 years, 26 days ago) |
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Quote:
Annapurna1 said:
bullet point 2) ..the demographics of swing states gives the repugnicans a huge handicap in a close vote...
First off, don't call them "repugnicans"; it's juvenile and prevents anyone from taking you or the discussion seriously.
I'm not sure what exactly you mean by "handicap"- do you mean the demographics handicap, ie hurt, the Republicans or that they help them? I'd say they help Obama; while he doesn't do too well on the 2004 "Democrats must win Ohio or Florida or they're toast" model, Obama is very competitive in a lot of smaller states, especially in the West. He has a smart campaign with deep pockets and many of these once solidly Republican states are turning purple fast due to their disillusionment with Republican policies and scandals. Hell, he's even competitive in Texas- he won't win it, but he can come within single digits and wage an expensive campaign there the cash-strapped Republicans are going to have to match. The only group that is adamantly anti-Obama is no-college working-class whites in the South and along the Eastern seaboard(especially in Appalachia) but he doesn't need to win them; no Democrat has since the age of Dixie.
Quote:
bullet point 3) ..the bradley effect...
You do realize that if a revote were held today, California would vote for Obama, right? If by the "Bradley effect", you mean that voters will lie about how racially-accepting they are and then go vote against the black guy, I think his track record should disprove that since a majority of Democratic voters DID vote for him already.
Quote:
bullet point 5) ..given all the above..the democrats dont have a viable candidate.. and the poo-bahs of the party will have to rush to draught a new candiate in august...
What are you talking about? We have a presumptive nominee; there isn't going to be a delegate-led substitution.
Quote:
bullet point 6) ..if the repugnicans win on racial politics..it will not only be a tragedy policy-wise..but will also firmly reestablish amerikkka as an overtly racist country...
Do you really have to do this?
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Annapurna1
liberal pussy
Registered: 05/21/02
Posts: 5,646
Loc: innsmouth..MA
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Re: Obama is now polling QUITE ahead of McCain (+11, +6, +4, etc) [Re: Mushmonkey]
#8389345 - 05/11/08 02:39 PM (15 years, 26 days ago) |
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Quote:
Mushmonkey said:
Clarify point 6.
Are you making the claim that if america does not elect a black man president, that america is racist?
no..im making the claim that if america does not elect a black man president because hes black..then america is racist...
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"anchor blocks counteract the process of pontiprobation..while omalean globes regulize the pressure"...
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AnonymousRabbit
Comrade
Registered: 01/10/08
Posts: 8,993
Last seen: 8 months, 30 days
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Edited by AnonymousRabbit (05/19/22 01:10 AM)
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Annapurna1
liberal pussy
Registered: 05/21/02
Posts: 5,646
Loc: innsmouth..MA
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Re: Obama is now polling QUITE ahead of McCain (+11, +6, +4, etc) [Re: Yossarian22]
#8389378 - 05/11/08 02:46 PM (15 years, 26 days ago) |
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Quote:
Yossarian22 said:
Quote:
Annapurna1 said:
bullet point 2) ..the demographics of swing states gives the repugnicans a huge handicap in a close vote...
First off, don't call them "repugnicans"; it's juvenile and prevents anyone from taking you or the discussion seriously.
I'm not sure what exactly you mean by "handicap"- do you mean the demographics handicap, ie hurt, the Republicans or that they help them? I'd say they help Obama; while he doesn't do too well on the 2004 "Democrats must win Ohio or Florida or they're toast" model, Obama is very competitive in a lot of smaller states, especially in the West. He has a smart campaign with deep pockets and many of these once solidly Republican states are turning purple fast due to their disillusionment with Republican policies and scandals. Hell, he's even competitive in Texas- he won't win it, but he can come within single digits and wage an expensive campaign there the cash-strapped Republicans are going to have to match. The only group that is adamantly anti-Obama is no-college working-class whites in the South and along the Eastern seaboard(especially in Appalachia) but he doesn't need to win them; no Democrat has since the age of Dixie.
what i meant was that the swing states will tilt the electoral college to the GOP in a close vote..even if the dems finish slightly ahead in the national poll...
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"anchor blocks counteract the process of pontiprobation..while omalean globes regulize the pressure"...
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