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 zappaisgod
horrid asshole
Registered: 02/11/04
Posts: 81,741
Loc: Fractallife's gym
Last seen: 8 years, 4 months
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 Re: New Poll: Obama leads McCain by 4% in Swing States  [Re: AnonymousRabbit]
#8300417 - 04/18/08 10:28 AM (16 years, 5 months ago) |
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Quote:
supernovasky said:
Also, Wash Post polls likelies and they have Obama +5. Rasmussen's likely voter model is very subjective, which is why it is such a clear outlier with all the rest of the polls.
ABC/Washington Post? Are you kidding? Even including them RCP has Obama ahead by...drum roll.....0.2%, which I believe is illusory.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html
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AnonymousRabbit
Comrade
Registered: 01/10/08
Posts: 8,993
Last seen: 2 years, 1 month
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Edited by AnonymousRabbit (05/19/22 01:11 AM)
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zappaisgod
horrid asshole
Registered: 02/11/04
Posts: 81,741
Loc: Fractallife's gym
Last seen: 8 years, 4 months
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Re: New Poll: Obama leads McCain by 4% in Swing States [Re: AnonymousRabbit]
#8300753 - 04/18/08 11:57 AM (16 years, 5 months ago) |
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Quote:
supernovasky said:
Zappa, I go by the averages. I just like Gallup because it has been accurate in predicting NATIONAL vote margins. By far, the most accurate individual state pollsters have been SUSA and Battleground.
Which is sooper dooper cool except they don't seem to bother polling what we are discussingQuote:
I dont think the RCP average is illusory, nor do I think the state polls are wrong. I think Obama is going into this with a big edge, especially with his putting into play states that have not been in play for a long time.
The RCP shows Barry ahead by 2 tenths of a percentage. How can you say Barry is going in with a big edge?Quote:
I also think Rasmussen's likely voter model will probably be off with more democrats registering at an unprecedented pace this year, and democratic turnout vs. republican turnout in the states before McCain had his nomination locked up.
Precisely why I think any registered voter poll is off. Dems backing the loser are going to sit out. Also, a significant amount of the increased Dem registration seem to be boll weevils voting for KAOS.Quote:
Here is what's good about registered voter polls instead of likely voter polls...
They show what happens if both candidates are equally good in getting their base out.
I quite honestly think Obama will be a lot better getting his base out than McCain will be.
But even if both candidates get their base out equally good, Obama wins.
I don't think so. The radical leftism of either Dem will give Republicans enough of the screaming fantods to get them out. What base does Barry have? Negroes and Commies. That's really it. And children, who don't vote. Never have, never will.Quote:
I personally know several republicans who arent even voting this cycle because they hate all of the candidates. McCain will have trouble winning back hardline conservatives en masse like Bush did in my honest opinion.
When these two commies scare the living shit out of them they will.
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fireworks_god
Sexy.Butt.McDanger
Registered: 03/12/02
Posts: 24,855
Loc: Pandurn
Last seen: 1 year, 8 months
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Re: New Poll: Obama leads McCain by 4% in Swing States [Re: zappaisgod]
#8300766 - 04/18/08 12:03 PM (16 years, 5 months ago) |
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Quote:
zappaisgod said:
Dems backing the loser are going to sit out.
Which crystal ball were you peering into when you made that up? 
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If I should die this very moment
I wouldn't fear
For I've never known completeness
Like being here
Wrapped in the warmth of you
Loving every breath of you
  
 
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 joker_man
Stranger
Registered: 11/14/05
Posts: 217
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Re: New Poll: Obama leads McCain by 4% in Swing States [Re: fireworks_god]
#8300792 - 04/18/08 12:14 PM (16 years, 5 months ago) |
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Quote:
fireworks_god said:
Quote:
zappaisgod said:
Dems backing the loser are going to sit out.
Which crystal ball were you peering into when you made that up?
He lives in imagination land.  when I read that.
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zappaisgod
horrid asshole
Registered: 02/11/04
Posts: 81,741
Loc: Fractallife's gym
Last seen: 8 years, 4 months
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Re: New Poll: Obama leads McCain by 4% in Swing States [Re: fireworks_god]
#8300825 - 04/18/08 12:27 PM (16 years, 5 months ago) |
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fireworks_god
Sexy.Butt.McDanger
Registered: 03/12/02
Posts: 24,855
Loc: Pandurn
Last seen: 1 year, 8 months
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Re: New Poll: Obama leads McCain by 4% in Swing States [Re: zappaisgod]
#8300831 - 04/18/08 12:29 PM (16 years, 5 months ago) |
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Blimshaw! You shouldn't make things up.
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If I should die this very moment
I wouldn't fear
For I've never known completeness
Like being here
Wrapped in the warmth of you
Loving every breath of you
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zappaisgod
horrid asshole
Registered: 02/11/04
Posts: 81,741
Loc: Fractallife's gym
Last seen: 8 years, 4 months
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Re: New Poll: Obama leads McCain by 4% in Swing States [Re: fireworks_god]
#8300863 - 04/18/08 12:39 PM (16 years, 5 months ago) |
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In the inimitable words of Lou Costello, "I'm a baaad man."
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AnonymousRabbit
Comrade
Registered: 01/10/08
Posts: 8,993
Last seen: 2 years, 1 month
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Edited by AnonymousRabbit (05/19/22 01:11 AM)
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Seuss
Error: divide byzero
Registered: 04/27/01
Posts: 23,480
Loc: Caribbean
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Re: New Poll: Obama leads McCain by 4% in Swing States [Re: AnonymousRabbit]
#8301095 - 04/18/08 01:58 PM (16 years, 5 months ago) |
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> And I'll even still be glad, even IF Obama loses
The only part of this race that is worth being happy over is the fact that at least two of the three losers running are going to lose. It sucks that one of them is going to win.
Comparing McCain to Clinton or Obama, at this point in the race, is pointless as it is impossible to know what effect the split on the Democrat's side has upon the polling. Once the Dems get their ducks in a row and pick a candidate, then the polls will begin to have some validity.
(I'm not saying that the polls are defective, but rather the people being polled are human... and we haven't had an actual debate between McCain and the candidate from the other side. Even if people think they know how they are going to vote, minds can change, and many will change, once the field is narrowed to two from three.)
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Just another spore in the wind.
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AnonymousRabbit
Comrade
Registered: 01/10/08
Posts: 8,993
Last seen: 2 years, 1 month
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. [Re: Seuss]
#8301114 - 04/18/08 02:03 PM (16 years, 5 months ago) |
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Edited by AnonymousRabbit (05/19/22 01:11 AM)
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lonestar2004
Live to party,work to affordit.
Registered: 10/03/04
Posts: 8,978
Loc: South Texas
Last seen: 13 years, 6 months
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Re: New Poll: Obama leads McCain by 4% in Swing States [Re: AnonymousRabbit]
#8354164 - 05/02/08 03:12 PM (16 years, 5 months ago) |
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Gallup Daily: McCain Moves to 6-Point Lead Over Obama
PRINCETON, NJ -- John McCain has moved to a six percentage point, 48% to 42%, lead over Barack Obama in Gallup Poll Daily tracking of the general election, while he edges out Hillary Clinton by only one point, 46% to 45%.
The ongoing turmoil in the Democratic race -- with neither candidate able to sustain a winning streak in the primaries and animosity seemingly mounting between them -- seems to be benefiting McCain and hurting both Democrats. Last week McCain had fallen three points behind Clinton in the preferences of registered voters for the general election, and only tied Obama.
Although both Clinton and Obama have lost ground to McCain over the past week, the current results may be particularly troubling for Obama in trying to combat Clinton's assertion to superdelegates that she would be the more electable of the two candidates in November.
The current six-point margin for McCain over Obama is the largest lead McCain has had over either candidate since Gallup began tracking general election preferences in early March.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/106966/Gallup-Daily-McCain-Moves-Point-Lead-Over-Obama.aspx
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America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"
We have "reckless fiscal policies"
America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.
Americans deserve better
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