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Thursday, April 17, 2008


The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows John McCain leading Barack Obama, 47% to 43%. The presumptive Republican nominee also leads Hillary Clinton 49% to 41%.

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zappaisgod said:
  I'm not worried.  According to the polls, Bush lost both elections.

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Right

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supernovasky said:


I think this might be the easiest election that democrats have ever had

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It should Have been.

Damn i hope you're still around in November.

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supernovasky said:
And your poll is from 4/13.

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supernovasky said:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html

Wrong again, Zappa, polls had Bush at +2.1 in Ohio in 2004.

Keep trying though.

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Scott noted this morning that the New York Times has responded to our inquiries by correcting the egregious error that I pointed out here. The paper's correction withdraws the false claim that John McCain made the "embarrassing mistake" of saying that Iran was training al Qaeda terrorists in Iraq. Instead, the Times now says that McCain "briefly referred to Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia as a Shiite group, rather than a Sunni group."

The Times's new claim would make sense if McCain had said "al Qaeda is a Shiite group," but in fact, he said the opposite: "[al Qaeda is] [c]ertainly not an obscure sect of the Shiites overall...or Sunnis or anybody else." It's odd for a newspaper to accuse a politician of making an "error" when what he said was indisputably correct. You can watch the video clip here. There is no stumble by McCain. What you don't see in the clip is what came before the question about al Qaeda. McCain had just asked General Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker a series of five questions about the Sadrists in Basra who had just been attacked by Iraqi troops. The exchange above is a transition into a series of questions about al Qaeda, and McCain notes that al Qaeda is not an "obscure sect of the Shiites," i.e., like the Sadrists, or, for that matter, an obscure sect of Sunnis, either. So I don't think there was any kind of "error" on McCain's part.

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supernovasky said:
Also, Wash Post polls likelies and they have Obama +5. Rasmussen's likely voter model is very subjective, which is why it is such a clear outlier with all the rest of the polls.

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supernovasky said:
Zappa, I go by the averages. I just like Gallup because it has been accurate in predicting NATIONAL vote margins. By far, the most accurate individual state pollsters have been SUSA and Battleground.

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I dont think the RCP average is illusory, nor do I think the state polls are wrong. I think Obama is going into this with a big edge, especially with his putting into play states that have not been in play for a long time.

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I also think Rasmussen's likely voter model will probably be off with more democrats registering at an unprecedented pace this year, and democratic turnout vs. republican turnout in the states before McCain had his nomination locked up.

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Here is what's good about registered voter polls instead of likely voter polls...

They show what happens if both candidates are equally good in getting their base out.
I quite honestly think Obama will be a lot better getting his base out than McCain will be.
But even if both candidates get their base out equally good, Obama wins.

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I personally know several republicans who arent even voting this cycle because they hate all of the candidates. McCain will have trouble winning back hardline conservatives en masse like Bush did in my honest opinion.

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zappaisgod said:
Dems backing the loser are going to sit out.

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Which crystal ball were you peering into when you made that up?

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fireworks_god said:

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zappaisgod said:
Dems backing the loser are going to sit out.

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Which crystal ball were you peering into when you made that up?

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He lives in imagination land. when I read that.