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OfflineAnonymousRabbit
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    #8296100 - 04/17/08 01:03 PM (16 years, 2 months ago)

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Edited by AnonymousRabbit (05/19/22 01:11 AM)

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Offlinefireworks_godS
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Re: New Poll: Obama leads McCain by 4% in Swing States [Re: AnonymousRabbit]
    #8296156 - 04/17/08 01:17 PM (16 years, 2 months ago)

Once Obama starts actively campaigning agansit McCain, I don't think McCain will stand much chance.


--------------------
:redpanda:
If I should die this very moment
I wouldn't fear
For I've never known completeness
Like being here
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:heartpump: :bunnyhug: :yinyang:

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Invisibledownforpot
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Re: New Poll: Obama leads McCain by 4% in Swing States [Re: fireworks_god]
    #8296192 - 04/17/08 01:29 PM (16 years, 2 months ago)

*Waits for Lonestar to come in and say that Obama will lose at least 40 states*


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http://www.myspace.com/4th25


"And I don't care if he was handcuffed
Then shot in his head
All I know is dead bodies
Can't fuck with me again"

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Invisibleafoaf
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Re: New Poll: Obama leads McCain by 4% in Swing States [Re: AnonymousRabbit]
    #8296235 - 04/17/08 01:38 PM (16 years, 2 months ago)

you are the yin to lonestar's wang.


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All I know is The Growery is a place where losers who get banned here go.

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Offlinelonestar2004
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Re: New Poll: Obama leads McCain by 4% in Swing States [Re: downforpot]
    #8296266 - 04/17/08 01:48 PM (16 years, 2 months ago)

:grin:



"McCain and his supporters can take solace in that there are more red states, more voters, and thus, more electoral votes in those states. So even though he trails by four points in the most competitive states, he is down by only two points to Obama"






1st The turnout in the Democratic Party primaries has been near double that in the Republican race.

2nd  The Democrats have raised at least more than double the amount of money.

3rd  McCain is a very OLD and may die before the November election.


4th George Bush

5th The economy sucks

6th Iraq

7th etc.



Despite ALL this!!!!!  McCain is only down by 2%!!!!!!


Great News!

:grin:


--------------------
America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

Barack Obama

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OfflineAnonymousRabbit
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. [Re: lonestar2004]
    #8296312 - 04/17/08 01:58 PM (16 years, 2 months ago)

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Edited by AnonymousRabbit (05/19/22 01:11 AM)

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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: New Poll: Obama leads McCain by 4% in Swing States [Re: AnonymousRabbit]
    #8296558 - 04/17/08 02:53 PM (16 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

Thursday, April 17, 2008


The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows John McCain leading Barack Obama, 47% to 43%. The presumptive Republican nominee also leads Hillary Clinton 49% to 41%.



http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll


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OfflineAnonymousRabbit
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. [Re: zappaisgod]
    #8296592 - 04/17/08 03:02 PM (16 years, 2 months ago)

.

Edited by AnonymousRabbit (05/19/22 01:11 AM)

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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: New Poll: Obama leads McCain by 4% in Swing States [Re: AnonymousRabbit]
    #8296663 - 04/17/08 03:25 PM (16 years, 2 months ago)

The latest poll in your link is from 4/12. I'm not worried. According to the polls, Bush lost both elections.


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Offlinelonestar2004
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Re: New Poll: Obama leads McCain by 4% in Swing States [Re: zappaisgod]
    #8296783 - 04/17/08 03:52 PM (16 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

zappaisgod said:
  I'm not worried.  According to the polls, Bush lost both elections.




:rotfl: Right


--------------------
America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

Barack Obama

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OfflineAnonymousRabbit
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. [Re: zappaisgod]
    #8296785 - 04/17/08 03:53 PM (16 years, 2 months ago)

.


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Edited by AnonymousRabbit (05/19/22 01:11 AM)

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OfflineAnonymousRabbit
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. [Re: AnonymousRabbit]
    #8296798 - 04/17/08 03:56 PM (16 years, 2 months ago)

.


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Edited by AnonymousRabbit (05/19/22 01:11 AM)

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Offlinelonestar2004
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Re: New Poll: Obama leads McCain by 4% in Swing States [Re: AnonymousRabbit]
    #8296821 - 04/17/08 04:00 PM (16 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

supernovasky said:


I think this might be the easiest election that democrats have ever had




It should Have been.:grin:

Damn i hope you're still around in November.


--------------------
America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

Barack Obama

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OfflineAnonymousRabbit
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. [Re: lonestar2004]
    #8296850 - 04/17/08 04:08 PM (16 years, 2 months ago)

.


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Edited by AnonymousRabbit (05/19/22 01:11 AM)

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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: New Poll: Obama leads McCain by 4% in Swing States [Re: AnonymousRabbit]
    #8297199 - 04/17/08 05:30 PM (16 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

supernovasky said:
And your poll is from 4/13.





No it's not, it's from the 17th. No matter, there's six months to the election. I'm not worried.


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OfflineAnonymousRabbit
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. [Re: zappaisgod]
    #8297250 - 04/17/08 05:41 PM (16 years, 2 months ago)

.


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Edited by AnonymousRabbit (05/19/22 01:11 AM)

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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: New Poll: Obama leads McCain by 4% in Swing States [Re: AnonymousRabbit]
    #8297545 - 04/17/08 06:40 PM (16 years, 2 months ago)

The polls had Bush losing Ohio in 2004 and Florida in 2000, both of which were the linchpin states. As you know, popular vote does not determine the President.

About your polling survey, you are right, I missed that 16th for Gallup. One thing you keep glossing over is the difference in methods. Rasmussen polls likely voters and Gallup polls registered voters. That tends to oversample Dems who, when push comes to shove, don't get out and vote. At any rate, this is all navel gazing. The election is six months away and I'm not at all worried. Except that McCain is the best of the remaining field. That is somewhat troublesome.


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OfflineAnonymousRabbit
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. [Re: zappaisgod]
    #8297562 - 04/17/08 06:44 PM (16 years, 2 months ago)

.


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Edited by AnonymousRabbit (05/19/22 01:11 AM)

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OfflineAnonymousRabbit
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. [Re: AnonymousRabbit]
    #8297595 - 04/17/08 06:48 PM (16 years, 2 months ago)

.


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Edited by AnonymousRabbit (05/19/22 01:11 AM)

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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: New Poll: Obama leads McCain by 4% in Swing States [Re: AnonymousRabbit]
    #8300382 - 04/18/08 10:19 AM (16 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

supernovasky said:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html

Wrong again, Zappa, polls had Bush at +2.1 in Ohio in 2004.

Keep trying though.




Except Gallup, which you keep citing to support your Obama lunge, which had Kerry at 4% up. The polling organization which you cite that shows Obama ahead now also had Kerry ahead in Ohio. I think, as I have said before, that likely voters is more accurate than registered voters.

And I will reiterate, the election is 6 months away. Obama hasn't begun to take the pounding he is going to get. As a newbie he is more susceptible. McCain has weathered all he is going to get. Have you seen this?
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives2/2008/04/020322.php
Quote:

Scott noted this morning that the New York Times has responded to our inquiries by correcting the egregious error that I pointed out here. The paper's correction withdraws the false claim that John McCain made the "embarrassing mistake" of saying that Iran was training al Qaeda terrorists in Iraq. Instead, the Times now says that McCain "briefly referred to Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia as a Shiite group, rather than a Sunni group."

The Times's new claim would make sense if McCain had said "al Qaeda is a Shiite group," but in fact, he said the opposite: "[al Qaeda is] [c]ertainly not an obscure sect of the Shiites overall...or Sunnis or anybody else." It's odd for a newspaper to accuse a politician of making an "error" when what he said was indisputably correct. You can watch the video clip here. There is no stumble by McCain. What you don't see in the clip is what came before the question about al Qaeda. McCain had just asked General Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker a series of five questions about the Sadrists in Basra who had just been attacked by Iraqi troops. The exchange above is a transition into a series of questions about al Qaeda, and McCain notes that al Qaeda is not an "obscure sect of the Shiites," i.e., like the Sadrists, or, for that matter, an obscure sect of Sunnis, either. So I don't think there was any kind of "error" on McCain's part.





You can find links to the correction at the site. I will expect more Ratheresque efforts by the Times but those dinosaurs are just about dead. Have you heard of something called the Bradley Effect?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: New Poll: Obama leads McCain by 4% in Swing States [Re: AnonymousRabbit]
    #8300417 - 04/18/08 10:28 AM (16 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

supernovasky said:
Also, Wash Post polls likelies and they have Obama +5. Rasmussen's likely voter model is very subjective, which is why it is such a clear outlier with all the rest of the polls.




ABC/Washington Post? Are you kidding? Even including them RCP has Obama ahead by...drum roll.....0.2%, which I believe is illusory.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html


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OfflineAnonymousRabbit
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. [Re: zappaisgod]
    #8300491 - 04/18/08 10:45 AM (16 years, 2 months ago)

.


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Edited by AnonymousRabbit (05/19/22 01:11 AM)

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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: New Poll: Obama leads McCain by 4% in Swing States [Re: AnonymousRabbit]
    #8300753 - 04/18/08 11:57 AM (16 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

supernovasky said:
Zappa, I go by the averages. I just like Gallup because it has been accurate in predicting NATIONAL vote margins. By far, the most accurate individual state pollsters have been SUSA and Battleground.




Which is sooper dooper cool except they don't seem to bother polling what we are discussing
Quote:



I dont think the RCP average is illusory, nor do I think the state polls are wrong. I think Obama is going into this with a big edge, especially with his putting into play states that have not been in play for a long time.




The RCP shows Barry ahead by 2 tenths of a percentage. How can you say Barry is going in with a big edge?
Quote:



I also think Rasmussen's likely voter model will probably be off with more democrats registering at an unprecedented pace this year, and democratic turnout vs. republican turnout in the states before McCain had his nomination locked up.



Precisely why I think any registered voter poll is off. Dems backing the loser are going to sit out. Also, a significant amount of the increased Dem registration seem to be boll weevils voting for KAOS.
Quote:



Here is what's good about registered voter polls instead of likely voter polls...

They show what happens if both candidates are equally good in getting their base out.
I quite honestly think Obama will be a lot better getting his base out than McCain will be.
But even if both candidates get their base out equally good, Obama wins.




I don't think so. The radical leftism of either Dem will give Republicans enough of the screaming fantods to get them out. What base does Barry have? Negroes and Commies. That's really it. And children, who don't vote. Never have, never will.
Quote:



I personally know several republicans who arent even voting this cycle because they hate all of the candidates. McCain will have trouble winning back hardline conservatives en masse like Bush did in my honest opinion.




When these two commies scare the living shit out of them they will.


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Offlinefireworks_godS
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Re: New Poll: Obama leads McCain by 4% in Swing States [Re: zappaisgod]
    #8300766 - 04/18/08 12:03 PM (16 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

zappaisgod said:
Dems backing the loser are going to sit out.




Which crystal ball were you peering into when you made that up? :strokebeard:


--------------------
:redpanda:
If I should die this very moment
I wouldn't fear
For I've never known completeness
Like being here
Wrapped in the warmth of you
Loving every breath of you

:heartpump: :bunnyhug: :yinyang:

:yinyang: :levitate: :earth: :levitate: :yinyang:

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Invisiblejoker_man
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Re: New Poll: Obama leads McCain by 4% in Swing States [Re: fireworks_god]
    #8300792 - 04/18/08 12:14 PM (16 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

fireworks_god said:
Quote:

zappaisgod said:
Dems backing the loser are going to sit out.




Which crystal ball were you peering into when you made that up? :strokebeard:




He lives in imagination land. :ilold: when I read that.

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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: New Poll: Obama leads McCain by 4% in Swing States [Re: fireworks_god]
    #8300825 - 04/18/08 12:27 PM (16 years, 2 months ago)



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Offlinefireworks_godS
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Re: New Poll: Obama leads McCain by 4% in Swing States [Re: zappaisgod]
    #8300831 - 04/18/08 12:29 PM (16 years, 2 months ago)

Blimshaw! You shouldn't make things up.


--------------------
:redpanda:
If I should die this very moment
I wouldn't fear
For I've never known completeness
Like being here
Wrapped in the warmth of you
Loving every breath of you

:heartpump: :bunnyhug: :yinyang:

:yinyang: :levitate: :earth: :levitate: :yinyang:

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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: New Poll: Obama leads McCain by 4% in Swing States [Re: fireworks_god]
    #8300863 - 04/18/08 12:39 PM (16 years, 2 months ago)

In the inimitable words of Lou Costello, "I'm a baaad man."


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OfflineAnonymousRabbit
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. [Re: zappaisgod]
    #8301054 - 04/18/08 01:44 PM (16 years, 2 months ago)

.


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Edited by AnonymousRabbit (05/19/22 01:11 AM)

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OfflineSeussA
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Re: New Poll: Obama leads McCain by 4% in Swing States [Re: AnonymousRabbit]
    #8301095 - 04/18/08 01:58 PM (16 years, 2 months ago)

> And I'll even still be glad, even IF Obama loses

The only part of this race that is worth being happy over is the fact that at least two of the three losers running are going to lose. It sucks that one of them is going to win.

Comparing McCain to Clinton or Obama, at this point in the race, is pointless as it is impossible to know what effect the split on the Democrat's side has upon the polling. Once the Dems get their ducks in a row and pick a candidate, then the polls will begin to have some validity.

(I'm not saying that the polls are defective, but rather the people being polled are human... and we haven't had an actual debate between McCain and the candidate from the other side. Even if people think they know how they are going to vote, minds can change, and many will change, once the field is narrowed to two from three.)


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Just another spore in the wind.

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OfflineAnonymousRabbit
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. [Re: Seuss]
    #8301114 - 04/18/08 02:03 PM (16 years, 2 months ago)

.


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Edited by AnonymousRabbit (05/19/22 01:11 AM)

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Offlinelonestar2004
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Re: New Poll: Obama leads McCain by 4% in Swing States [Re: AnonymousRabbit]
    #8354164 - 05/02/08 03:12 PM (16 years, 1 month ago)

Gallup Daily: McCain Moves to 6-Point Lead Over Obama


PRINCETON, NJ -- John McCain has moved to a six percentage point, 48% to 42%, lead over Barack Obama in Gallup Poll Daily tracking of the general election, while he edges out Hillary Clinton by only one point, 46% to 45%.


The ongoing turmoil in the Democratic race -- with neither candidate able to sustain a winning streak in the primaries and animosity seemingly mounting between them -- seems to be benefiting McCain and hurting both Democrats. Last week McCain had fallen three points behind Clinton in the preferences of registered voters for the general election, and only tied Obama.


Although both Clinton and Obama have lost ground to McCain over the past week, the current results may be particularly troubling for Obama in trying to combat Clinton's assertion to superdelegates that she would be the more electable of the two candidates in November.


The current six-point margin for McCain over Obama is the largest lead McCain has had over either candidate since Gallup began tracking general election preferences in early March.


http://www.gallup.com/poll/106966/Gallup-Daily-McCain-Moves-Point-Lead-Over-Obama.aspx


--------------------
America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

Barack Obama

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