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Miffed a Milf Registered: 11/09/05 Posts: 2,615 Last seen: 10 years, 5 months |
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Quote: Thanks bro, I appreciate the report. The PE ratio was from sharebuilder, and while I like their DCA services their research can be a little behind the ball
-------------------- You can turn your back on a person, but never turn your back on a drug, especially when its waving a razor sharp hunting knife in your eye. Hunter S. Thompson
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Friend Registered: 01/10/08 Posts: 272 Last seen: 15 years, 5 months |
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What are some bear market funds? I heard a person from Cornerstone refer to this. Something about investors need to have exposure to investments that can benefit from higher inflation. These would include gold and commodities. TIPs could also benefit from higher inflation. What are TIPS and the sort? Like a mutual fund?
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old hand ![]() Registered: 02/14/04 Posts: 4,102 Last seen: 13 years, 8 months |
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TIPS are inflation indexed treasury bonds - currently, they offer negative yields - that is, buy a $1000 bond today, get $990 + inflation back next year. It's safe, but there's gotta be a better place to put your money.
Bear market funds are market and sector ultrashorts - like SDS is "UltraShort S&P 500 proshares" - this means, it should move in the opposite direction as the S&P 500, and by double the amount. There are other ultrashort proshares funds - including some for sectors, like housing or financial. Search "Proshares". Commodities are rising super-fast right now. If you want to invest in commodity funds or ETFs, you can - like GLD is an ETF that holds a bunch of physical gold (I think) - other people probably know more.
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Friend Registered: 01/10/08 Posts: 272 Last seen: 15 years, 5 months |
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Well since GLD seems to be going up daily, can I just pour a lump sum of money in some GLD and cash in my gains after 3 days or so? I doubt the prices of GLD will fall anytime soon because the value of the dollar is still going down.
Edited by Derk (03/17/08 11:13 AM)
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∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙ Registered: 05/08/01 Posts: 23,417 Loc: city of angels Last seen: 6 hours, 24 minutes |
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You're playing with fire man - don't go throw all of your eggs in one basket. You're hoping that gold will continue to go up as the dollar continues to go down. While the trend is in your favor, a correction can occur at anytime. Don't be reckless, be cool and calculated, patient and disciplined! If you're dead set on gold, buy a piece right now, but don't put down a full position all at once. You should be buying on weakness.
My Discretionary Portfolio as of 3/17/2008:
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∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙ Registered: 05/08/01 Posts: 23,417 Loc: city of angels Last seen: 6 hours, 24 minutes |
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Quote: You know what? Annaly is just too hard for me to game, it's causing me to lose too much sleep, and I'm sick of it. That's why I am closing my position today, on the heels of a 16% overnight gain (thanks to expectations of a heavy rate cut later this afternoon). Rather than wait for that rate cut to materialize and potentially disappoint, I'm going to give back these shares right now, at $16.45. If I can catch it again down around $12 - $13, I may step back in for a quick trade... but this one is so damn volatile and has caused me too much strife. Though I honestly believe there is still good value in this stock, the volatility is just way too stressful, and I'll give up some potential gain in order to rest easier!
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∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙ Registered: 05/08/01 Posts: 23,417 Loc: city of angels Last seen: 6 hours, 24 minutes |
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Happy 420 point to the upside DJIA!
This calls for a celebratory ![]() ![]() Fed cuts its core and discount rates 0.75% a piece, making note of heightened inflation concerns. The inflation comment seemed to tweak the market for an hour, but it came roaring back to the close. Very pleased with my positions right now. While I may take some profits in any names that continue to outperform the broader market averages in coming days, I am content to let most things ride given the fact that the market has been quite oversold heading into this rally, and that the environment looks more friendly thanks largely to the actions taken by the Fed (i.e. the Bear Sterns bailout, the $200 billion 28 day T-note for Mortgage-backed security exchange, and today's interest rate cuts). My healthy cash position also affords me the opportunity to potentially initiate a position in an infrastructure play such as Jacobs Engineering (JEC) if it can find it's way back to $70 a share, or perhaps Foster Wheeler (FWLT) if it leans back down closer to $50, both of which source many of their contracts in the global market. One may also want to keep an eye on the VISA (V) IPO coming tonight. Visa has no credit related risk, their earnings come from transaction fees - and with more and more people using credit over cash every day, Visa, like MasterCard, will stand to benefit. Everything was in the green today - Some highlights - Hudson City Bank (HCBK) up another 5%. Mosaic (MOS) up 6.7%. Transocean (RIG) up 5.2%. Apple (AAPL) up 4.8%. Annaly (NLY) up 17.4%. This action is very encouraging. I hate to say it, but the Bear Sterns failure was an important part of what is going to move us past the current credit crisis. Now that we know that the government is willing to step in to bail out any large bank in trouble, in addition to the sentiment that many banks have already announced the bulk of their write downs, not to mention the lower interest rate environment, it seems we may finally be nearing a bottom in the stock market. Nevertheless, we haven't experienced the classic "capitulation", or panic selling / crash that is typically indicative of a market bottom. Therefore, it is important to keep a conservative bias. Given all the pain and volatility over the past few months, I am content having a sizeable cash position available for any weakness. In a bull market, my cash position would be closer to 8%. Indeed, it would probably pay off in the short-term to put some more of my cash to work right now, but I don't mind missing a few extra dollars of upside for the added security that my cash position provides me. Discretionary Portfolio as of 3/18/2008
Edited by geokills (03/18/08 07:59 PM)
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Friend Registered: 01/10/08 Posts: 272 Last seen: 15 years, 5 months |
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Holy shit Apple gained almost 15 dollars in 2 days time! Gonna sell my shares tomorrow if it opens well. (I play virtual market on Updown =/, it's a lot of fun though!)
So far I'm up 1.05% total gains with 30k in 2 days. Too bad it's not real lol. Gold is down right now, I'm very tempted to buy some real shares and hope it goes back up. I probably definately will if it hits a low of $93 or so.
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∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙ Registered: 05/08/01 Posts: 23,417 Loc: city of angels Last seen: 6 hours, 24 minutes |
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Foster Wheeler (FWLT) and Jacobs Engineering (JEC) are looking really ripe for the picking at these levels, $53 and $71 respectively. However, my portfolio is getting a little bloated and I think I've done enough buying for one day. I don't want to get too agressive as this is an options expiration week, which typically results in higher than average volatility. Not to mention that the aggregate health of the market still isn't great - and though the sun has shined on equities this week, clouds could cover the space at any moment. With thirteen active positions in my discretionary portfolio, it may not be wise to add more as it will make it increasingly difficult to keep up to date on all of them as any news breaks. Discretionary Portfolio as of 3/19/2008:
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Friend Registered: 01/10/08 Posts: 272 Last seen: 15 years, 5 months |
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Very nice calls on Visa and JEC, Geo. I love you even more.
GLD is down even more today to almost $93. Do you think I should invest for real in this shit or you think it is not going to go back up?
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∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙ Registered: 05/08/01 Posts: 23,417 Loc: city of angels Last seen: 6 hours, 24 minutes |
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Well obviously I'm not too worried about gold, because I just initiated a position in Yamana Gold (AUY) today. Gold will probably be under pressure for a little while though, as it stumbles around the psychological $1000 mark. People in the gold industry whom I've listened to speak (the CEO's of both Yamana and Agnico-Eagle Mines), believe gold will continue to rise, with estimates stated between $1600 - $2000 an ounce. Of course there's really no telling, and if the dollar continues to rise in a strong way, it'll be very hard for gold to continue its push higher. I am investing in AUY not necessarily for short-term gains, but as a hedge against the falling dollar. I consider it inflation insurance for the portfolio, and so long as the people in the industry continue to see higher prices and the dollar continues to be under pressure, I'm willing to stick it out.
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old hand ![]() Registered: 02/14/04 Posts: 4,102 Last seen: 13 years, 8 months |
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Crazy market - BTW, there is continued chaos in the credit markets that makes me think we haven't seen the worst in the stock market - this schizophrenic behavior could continue for some time, so be careful.
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Friend Registered: 01/10/08 Posts: 272 Last seen: 15 years, 5 months |
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There are different kinds of gold to invest in? o.0 how you know which ones to invest in? Man I'm so stupid. And I thought the dollar was still falling.
What banks do you suggest investing in? The Fed seems pretty gung-ho in not letting them fall, so I'm not very afraid of losing money if I was to invest in already extremely low prices. EDIT: Why have Yamana and Agnico-Eagle Mines fallen so heavily in the past few days? What happened??? o.0 Edited by Derk (03/19/08 04:40 PM)
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∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙ Registered: 05/08/01 Posts: 23,417 Loc: city of angels Last seen: 6 hours, 24 minutes |
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You need to educate yourself more before you start putting money in the market my friend. If you read my post today about my purchases in PBR and AUY, you will see that I explain de-leveraging is one of the primary reasons why commodity stocks are getting hit hard right now.
Quote: The dollar is still in a long-term down trend. It has been strong only a couple of days this week, but that is just greater proof of how quickly the market sentiment can change, and why you need to learn more about how different sectors of the economy are tied together, and in general how the market tends to react emotionally over the near-term. It is probably not likely that the dollar will see continued strength in the coming months, but it is something that must be considered, particularly if you are intending to invest in dollar-priced commodities such as oil and gold. In so far as banks, again, read my previous updates and look at my portfolio. I'm playing with an open hand here, quite literally putting my money where my mouth is. Right now, my financial sector exposure comes from Hudson City Bank (HCBK), one of the few financial stocks that is at its 52-week high. Other banks I would consider looking into include JP Morgan (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC)... but make no mistake, I'm not itching to gain anymore financial sector exposure right now, because that sector is at the heart of the market's turmoil and quite frankly, dangerous.
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Friend Registered: 01/10/08 Posts: 272 Last seen: 15 years, 5 months |
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Quote: Cramer's books are coming in the mail as we speak. I'm trying my best to understand certain things. Just some terms and trends I can't quite grasp yet. Did I say some? I meant a few. I mean many.
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∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙ Registered: 05/08/01 Posts: 23,417 Loc: city of angels Last seen: 6 hours, 24 minutes |
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I agree with you phi1618, it's a little nerve wracking, but I try to remember that these short-term swings really aren't cause to get my panties in a bunch. The majority of my investments are based on a long-term thesis, and many of my holdings provide dividend yields at or better than the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond, so weathering the storm shouldn't be too difficult.
Nevertheless, to the extent that I have been immersing myself in the markets on a daily basis, it surely doesn't feel good on days like today when the market tanks - and it reminds me of the necessity for caution. This is partly why I have kept such a large cash position on hand. And while I am confident in the names I initiated today, I am a little weary of beginning to dip into my protective cash position because like you, I could believe that we have more to fall before things really start to trend positively again. On that note, I am going to do a little bit of sector analysis on my portfolio, to make sure that I am maintaining diversification, and to see where I might need to lighten up or bulk up in order to protect myself. I am grouping together sectors that tend to move in tandem with each other.
Analyzing my portfolio in this manner is a bit of an eye opener. Cash looks good. The Consumer Staples are safe, with both stocks paying a good dividend, and consumer staples naturally being relatively stable since they are comprised of products that people will buy regardless of the macro-economy's strength (people who smoke aren't going to stop buying cigarettes, nor will people stop buying personal hygiene products). The problem begins to make itself apparent when looking at my Oil and Ag exposure. While I believe it is safe to have up to 20% of my portfolio in any one sector, I am getting the feeling that Oil and Ag are on shaky ground right now given the aforementioned de-leveraging and dollar strength that led to a rapid selloff today. In retrospect, I should have taken some profits on my Mosaic (MOS) position when it reached $110 yesterday, and perhaps I shouldn't have been so quick to put more cash to work in Deere (DE) when it hit $80. In truth, it is the Ag stocks that have me the most concerned, as they trade with high PE multiples and on lofty expectations for future growth, and they fail to pay any decent dividends. While I believe that Agriculture still has a lot of growth potential thanks to the proliferation of bio-based fuels in addition to the rising desire for less-efficient food (i.e. meat) which requires more grain to be grown for feed... I still can't help but wish I weren't so exposed to this sector right now. I have a feeling we could see another 10% leg down on the Ag names in the near-term, but we're at a point where I'm not comfortable buying or selling either of these names... so I'll just have to take a wait and see approach for the time being. In efforts to re-distribute my exposure to various sectors of the economy over the coming weeks, I will aim to book some profits in Deere if it can climb back up above $85. If Apple falls back towards $120 or Google falls back toward $400, I will probably buy some of those in order to re-build my technology position which I had lightened (with good cause) in the beginning of the year. I will also look to gain infrastructure/engineering exposure through a purchase of Jacobs Engineering or Foster Wheeler, both of which I have been interested in for quite some time. I am also likely to make another purchase in Yamana Gold should the stock reach $15. On the whole, I don't mind being underweight on retail, finance, telecommunications or technology... as these sectors don't have much going for them right now. The reason I am holding on to these positions is because I believe they will eventually recover and all of them (with the exception of technology) offer strong dividends. I do still see long-term value in Apple and Google, so I would be content to get back into those names once the price is right. I think the most prudent move for me right now is to get my head wrapped around my Agriculture exposure, and perhaps focus on only one name in the sector... because having too much to follow just makes things more difficult, and thus prone to greater losses if I can't keep up to date on the things I own.
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∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙ Registered: 05/08/01 Posts: 23,417 Loc: city of angels Last seen: 6 hours, 24 minutes |
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Another wickedly volatile week for the markets, though this time with upside. Unfortunately, it would have paid off to have waited an extra week to put money to work in the commodity space, as my gold, oil, and agricultural commodity stocks really took a beating over the last few days thanks to the dollar strength and hedge fund de-leveraging (explained here). Nevertheless, I do not believe that the bull markets in oil and agriculture are going to be over anytime soon. A correction is inevitable, and in my view presents a valuable buying opportunity.
No trading tomorrow, however should the commodities continue their downtrend next week, I will look to continue adding to my positions. Yamana Gold (AUY), which I initiated this week, is already down close to 5% from my basis (though 20% from its recent high). In keeping with my discipline, I purchased only 1/3 of what I would typically consider a full position, and have plenty of room to add to this name on further weakness. They will report their quarterly earnings on Tuesday, which should be strong. I will look to buy below $15 a share on Monday. Petrobras (PBR), the Brazilian oil outfit is also down some 4% from where I initiated the name this week, and if it reaches below $90, I will surely be a buyer. A quick note on all this oil and commodity buying, since I noted yesterday how I have been concerned about my increasing exposure to oils and agriculture in particular. This will definitely skew the diversified nature of my portfolio - however, this sector has been taking such a wild beating this week that I believe continued losses of this magnitude to be unsustainable. Oil and Agriculture are not going anywhere, and when a certain sector vastly underperforms the market short term, it often pays to stock up in the short term. Of course, as soon as there is strength, I will re-balance the portfolio by selling off some of the commodity-related shares that I was able to purchase at these bargain levels. I think that's it for now... I'm glad I get tomorrow off - the swings in this market have been driving me a little batty. I woke up a half hour after the trading day began, to see Foster Wheeler (FWLT) had traded down to $47 right after the open. Kicking myself for not having set my alarm a half-hour earlier, I put in a bid for $50 when the stock was trading at roughly $50.25... unfortunately, strength carried it like a rocket, to close the day at $54.29 (even higher in after hours trading). A shame, another day trading opportunity to bag a quick 10% failed. Ah well, there'll be other days and new opportunities to come. Keep your head up, the market is looking quite a bit healthier now that our government agencies (namely the Fed and Treasury) are finally working together to find solutions to the current housing and credit crisis. Even so, barring my increased short term exposure to commodities, I will be keeping an eye out for secure, high yielding dividend stocks, and looking to maintain a minimum 10 - 15% cash position for any unforeseen weakness. Discretionary Portfolio as of 3/20/08:
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Bullshit Registered: 04/04/05 Posts: 12,486 Loc: . |
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Geokills, I just want to say that I'm really impressed with your trading discipline. I've been learning a lot from your posts and think that your disclosure is a really rare find.
Thanks!
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∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙ Registered: 05/08/01 Posts: 23,417 Loc: city of angels Last seen: 6 hours, 24 minutes |
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Glad you're enjoying it... I'm learning a heap from this too!
This is the first time I've kept a trading journal, and being able to go back and evaluate my actions definitely affrords me a clearer picture of how things went wrong. ![]()
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look alive ∞ Registered: 01/30/05 Posts: 9,640 Loc: 45º parallel Last seen: 3 days, 22 hours |
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Hola, I dont know if you guys are aware of Star Tech Environmental Corp, but I've been looking into them for sometime, and they are actively seeking investors. What they are doing is developing the first waste-to-energy using high powered self efficient plasma arc technology, its very fascinating stuff. Basically they're machine which is no bigger then a garbage dumpster, it takes almost any material other then that of radioactive waste and nuclear bombs, and sends it threw a vessel which includes a plasma torch, that burns the material at temperatures hotter then the sun, but thats not the amazing part, they have developed away to use the gases that come off of it, to produce power, not only that but alot of power. The thing becomes self sustaining, so it would operate even in black outs, and all it would be needed to keep it running would be too feed it garbage of any kind. Its fascinating stuff, and there technology is developing quick. There stock's have ben up in down over the past two years. But remain high and open to the public;
![]() "Startech Environmental Corporation was incorporated in 1993 in Colorado and is currently listed on the OTC Bulletin Board stock exchange under the ticker symbol STHK.OB. Our cusip number is 855906103 and there are approximately 3,000 Startech shareholders. Startech stock can be bought or sold through a stockbroker, or generally through a financial institution that provides brokerage services." how it works ; Quote: Efficiency The following is an example input-effluent case: (Source: Scott Budich, Executive Sales Manage, StarTech; Jan. 15, 2007) IN: [9.3 million BTU (inherent content of solid waste)] 1.8 million BTU electricity subtotal: 11.1 mil BTU OUT: 8.1 million BTU Conclusions: Electricity-to-fuel efficiency: 4.5-fold Waste-to-fuel Conversion efficiency: 73% Here's some basic information on there corporation and how things work; Quote: Here is a newswire from Star Tech; Startech Environmental Sells Plasma Waste Converter To Process Chemical Industry Hazardous Waste in Taiwan WILTON, Conn., July 22 /PRNewswire/ -- Startech Environmental Corp. (OTC Bulletin Board: STHK), a fully reporting company, announced today that it has signed the contract for the sale of a 10-ton per day commercial Plasma Waste Converter system (PWC)(TM) with the Meridian Industrial Solutions Corporation, a U.S. corporation with offices in New Jersey, California and Taiwan. The contract provides for significant down-payments and manufacturing progress payments. Meridian, the Startech exclusive distributor for Taiwan, has asked that the financial details of their purchase be confidential. Dr. H.E. Wu and Mr. Jose A. Capote, Principals of Meridian said, "The 10-ton per day PWC that will process chemical industry hazardous wastes will be followed by several 50-ton per day systems for a plant that we will build, own and operate to process a wide variety of solid and liquid industrial and hazardous wastes. Beyond chemical and industrial wastes, we are also focusing on utilizing the PWC system to destroy military wastes. Incinerators should not be used in these applications." They also said, "Over the last several months, we looked at many companies and technologies from different parts of the world. We chose Startech because the PWC system gives us the unique capability to destroy a wide range of wastes, using a single unit. Startech's achievements in safely destroying military and chemical weapons for the U.S. Army gave us the highest level of confidence in the PWC's ability to do it all." Mr. Longo, President of Startech, said, "Meridian is a full-service environmental engineering/construction and waste management firm. Their team is made up of experienced executives with solid engineering and management backgrounds in the environmental and waste management businesses. Meridian's partners also include leaders in the Taiwanese environmental, waste management and recycling industries." Startech is an environmental equipment company whose Plasma Waste Converters remediate and safely process hazardous and non-hazardous wastes comprised of organic and inorganic solids, gases, and aqueous and non-aqueous liquids by its proprietary method of molecular dissociation and closed-loop elemental recycling. The PWC system can convert many hazardous and non-hazardous wastes into commercially useful commodity products. It is not an incinerator. Here's a list of recent press release's; http://www.prnewswire.com/gh/cno and finally a qoute from the ceo himself; Quote: •••• personally I find this all to be very fascinating technology, especially at this point in human history, where we no longer desire such efficient but we almost require them at this point, so I can only imagine great things in store for this corporation. Cheers ~ ursa ![]() http://peswiki.com/index.php/Dir http://www.startech.net/plasma.h -------------------- ∞ I am incapable of conceiving infinity, and yet I do not accept finity. - Simone de Beauvoir - Edited by snoot (03/21/08 12:17 AM)
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