Home | Community | Message Board


This site includes paid links. Please support our sponsors.


Welcome to the Shroomery Message Board! You are experiencing a small sample of what the site has to offer. Please login or register to post messages and view our exclusive members-only content. You'll gain access to additional forums, file attachments, board customizations, encrypted private messages, and much more!

Shop: PhytoExtractum Kratom Powder for Sale   Kraken Kratom Kratom Capsules for Sale   Left Coast Kratom Buy Kratom Capsules   Original Sensible Seeds Bulk Cannabis Seeds   Unfolding Nature Unfolding Nature: Being in the Implicate Order   North Spore Cultivation Supplies   Bridgetown Botanicals CBD Concentrates

Jump to first unread post Pages: < Back | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | Next > | Last >
Offlinewiggles
Miffed a Milf
Male User Gallery

Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 11/09/05
Posts: 2,615
Last seen: 10 years, 5 months
Re: Fidelity Financial FNF [Re: geokills]
    #8145446 - 03/14/08 10:34 AM (15 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

geokills said:
> Fidelity Financial (FNF). It did have a great PE ratio (.57), and some of the best dividends out there

Well you're right about the dividend, currently yielding over 7%.  However, the PE multiple is certainly not 0.57... it's around 28, which is two to three times the average PE of competitors in the Property & Casualty Insurance industry.  You might have gotten confused with its price to sales ratio, which is around 0.62. 

Since coming public in 2005, this company has been boasting declining revenues, declining operating income, and declining net income.  FNF has missed its earnings estimates over 7 of the last 9 quarters.  Their first day of trading saw the stock up at $26, which has the stock down well over 30% from its debut.  While it is up nicely year to date, and earnings estimates show higher growth for the coming year... keeping in mind their robust history of failing to meet estimates, I'm not encouraged.

The stock is up nicely today... I would consider taking profits!

I've attached a research report on the company to this post.. I didn't take the time to go through it myself, but thought you may be interested since you are a shareholder.





Thanks bro, I appreciate the report. The PE ratio was from sharebuilder, and while I like their DCA services their research can be a little behind the ball :undecided:


--------------------


You can turn your back on a person, but never turn your back on a drug, especially when its waving a razor sharp hunting knife in your eye.
Hunter S. Thompson


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflineDerk
Friend
Male


Registered: 01/10/08
Posts: 272
Last seen: 15 years, 5 months
Re: Fidelity Financial FNF [Re: wiggles]
    #8155837 - 03/17/08 12:11 AM (15 years, 10 months ago)

What are some bear market funds? I heard a person from Cornerstone refer to this. Something about investors need to have exposure to investments that can benefit from higher inflation. These would include gold and commodities. TIPs could also benefit from higher inflation. What are TIPS and the sort? Like a mutual fund?


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Offlinephi1618
old hand

Registered: 02/14/04
Posts: 4,102
Last seen: 13 years, 8 months
Re: Fidelity Financial FNF [Re: Derk]
    #8156435 - 03/17/08 08:45 AM (15 years, 10 months ago)

TIPS are inflation indexed treasury bonds - currently, they offer negative yields - that is, buy a $1000 bond today, get $990 + inflation back next year. It's safe, but there's gotta be a better place to put your money.

Bear market funds are market and sector ultrashorts - like SDS is "UltraShort S&P 500 proshares" - this means, it should move in the opposite direction as the S&P 500, and by double the amount. There are other ultrashort proshares funds - including some for sectors, like housing or financial. Search "Proshares".

Commodities are rising super-fast right now. If you want to invest in commodity funds or ETFs, you can - like GLD is an ETF that holds a bunch of physical gold (I think) - other people probably know more.


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflineDerk
Friend
Male


Registered: 01/10/08
Posts: 272
Last seen: 15 years, 5 months
Re: Fidelity Financial FNF [Re: phi1618]
    #8156871 - 03/17/08 11:12 AM (15 years, 10 months ago)

Well since GLD seems to be going up daily, can I just pour a lump sum of money in some GLD and cash in my gains after 3 days or so? I doubt the prices of GLD will fall anytime soon because the value of the dollar is still going down.


Edited by Derk (03/17/08 11:13 AM)


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflinegeokillsA
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Male User Gallery

Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels Flag
Last seen: 6 hours, 23 minutes
Stock Update for March 17, 2008 - DE, MO, HCBK, NLY [Re: Derk]
    #8157521 - 03/17/08 02:07 PM (15 years, 10 months ago)

You're playing with fire man - don't go throw all of your eggs in one basket. You're hoping that gold will continue to go up as the dollar continues to go down. While the trend is in your favor, a correction can occur at anytime. Don't be reckless, be cool and calculated, patient and disciplined! If you're dead set on gold, buy a piece right now, but don't put down a full position all at once. You should be buying on weakness.


  • Deere & Co (DE) - Currently Trading at $81.90

    As I said I would be buying back Deere shares should they fall back to $80, that's just what I did. Added to my position on the morning's weakness at $80 / share. My thesis remains the same as discussed in previous updates.



  • Altria (MO) - Currently Trading at $70

    Added to my position at $70 / share. As previously noted, this company's stable earnings, strong dividend yield in conjunction with its breakup plans for its Philip Morris International and Domestic units, with an upcomming dividend boost, makes this ripe for upside.



  • Hudson City (HCBK) - Currently Trading at $17.15

    Up almost 5% on the day, this is probably the only stable financial stock out there. It is a very prudent lender, with nearly zero defaults by borrowers. It also sports a secure dividend greater than 2% annually. I am not taking any action at this time, but am pleased to see how well this stock has performed year to date, outperforming practically all of its peers in the financial sector, as well as many other sectors. Tomorrow's Fed rate cut should help support further gains here.



  • Annaly Capital Management (NLY) - Currently Trading at $14.15

    Just to beat myself up a bit... after learning of the Bear Sterns takeover and seeing the Asian markets tumbling on Sunday night, I got up at 6:15am pacific time to watch the US market open, planning to take advantage of weakness. With a watchful eye on my small Annaly Capital position, I aimed to catch some at around $13 / share. However, I cancelled that order almost immediately and tried to chase the stock down to its low as I saw it falling on very heavy volume. Hitting $12 within the first minute of trading, I became hesitant and within the next 30 seconds, after hitting a low of $11.50, I watched Annaly rocket back up to above $13 (that's a 13% swing in a matter of minutes, and a 23% swing on the day). Disgruntled and disappointed, I did not take any action - even though I could have made a purchase at my original $13 buy point! Instead, I allowed my hesitation and greed to get in the way of yet another fantastic trading opportunity. This is a prime example of how fast the market can move, and that it is better to set your price ahead of time and accept it, rather than changing your mind and chasing a stock once you're in the heat of battle!



My Discretionary Portfolio as of 3/17/2008:
  • Cash - 27%
  • Altria (MO) - 12.5%
  • Deere (DE) - 7.96%
  • McDonalds (MCD) - 7.27%
  • Hudson City (HCBK) - 7.08%
  • Proctor & Gamble (PG) - 6.96%
  • Jones Apparel (JNY) - 6.28%
  • Transocean (RIG) - 5.92%
  • Mosaic (MOS) - 5.37%
  • Apple (AAPL) - 4.16%
  • AT&T (T) - 3.72%
  • British Petroleum (BP) - 3.23%
  • Annaly (NLY) - 2.61%


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflinegeokillsA
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Male User Gallery

Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels Flag
Last seen: 6 hours, 23 minutes
Stock Update for March 18, 2008 - NLY [Re: geokills]
    #8161304 - 03/18/08 09:27 AM (15 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

geokills said:
  • Annaly Capital Management (NLY) - Currently Trading at $14.15

    Just to beat myself up a bit... after learning of the Bear Sterns takeover and seeing the Asian markets tumbling on Sunday night, I got up at 6:15am pacific time to watch the US market open, planning to take advantage of weakness. With a watchful eye on my small Annaly Capital position, I aimed to catch some at around $13 / share. However, I cancelled that order almost immediately and tried to chase the stock down to its low as I saw it falling on very heavy volume. Hitting $12 within the first minute of trading, I became hesitant and within the next 30 seconds, after hitting a low of $11.50, I watched Annaly rocket back up to above $13 (that's a 13% swing in a matter of minutes, and a 23% swing on the day). Disgruntled and disappointed, I did not take any action - even though I could have made a purchase at my original $13 buy point! Instead, I allowed my hesitation and greed to get in the way of yet another fantastic trading opportunity. This is a prime example of how fast the market can move, and that it is better to set your price ahead of time and accept it, rather than changing your mind and chasing a stock once you're in the heat of battle!





You know what? Annaly is just too hard for me to game, it's causing me to lose too much sleep, and I'm sick of it. That's why I am closing my position today, on the heels of a 16% overnight gain (thanks to expectations of a heavy rate cut later this afternoon). Rather than wait for that rate cut to materialize and potentially disappoint, I'm going to give back these shares right now, at $16.45. If I can catch it again down around $12 - $13, I may step back in for a quick trade... but this one is so damn volatile and has caused me too much strife. Though I honestly believe there is still good value in this stock, the volatility is just way too stressful, and I'll give up some potential gain in order to rest easier!


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflinegeokillsA
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Male User Gallery

Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels Flag
Last seen: 6 hours, 23 minutes
Happy 420! - Dow Jones Industrial Average up 420 points! [Re: geokills]
    #8162627 - 03/18/08 03:11 PM (15 years, 10 months ago)

Happy 420 point to the upside DJIA!
This calls for a celebratory :tongue2::spliff:

Fed cuts its core and discount rates 0.75% a piece, making note of heightened inflation concerns. 
The inflation comment seemed to tweak the market for an hour, but it came roaring back to the close.

Very pleased with my positions right now.  While I may take some profits in any names that continue to outperform the broader market averages in coming days, I am content to let most things ride given the fact that the market has been quite oversold heading into this rally, and that the environment looks more friendly thanks largely to the actions taken by the Fed (i.e. the Bear Sterns bailout, the $200 billion 28 day T-note for Mortgage-backed security exchange, and today's interest rate cuts). 

My healthy cash position also affords me the opportunity to potentially initiate a position in an infrastructure play such as Jacobs Engineering (JEC) if it can find it's way back to $70 a share, or perhaps Foster Wheeler (FWLT) if it leans back down closer to $50, both of which source many of their contracts in the global market.  One may also want to keep an eye on the VISA (V) IPO coming tonight.  Visa has no credit related risk, their earnings come from transaction fees - and with more and more people using credit over cash every day, Visa, like MasterCard, will stand to benefit.

Everything was in the green today - Some highlights - Hudson City Bank (HCBK) up another 5%.  Mosaic (MOS) up 6.7%.  Transocean (RIG) up 5.2%.  Apple (AAPL) up 4.8%.  Annaly (NLY) up 17.4%.

This action is very encouraging.  I hate to say it, but the Bear Sterns failure was an important part of what is going to move us past the current credit crisis.  Now that we know that the government is willing to step in to bail out any large bank in trouble, in addition to the sentiment that many banks have already announced the bulk of their write downs, not to mention the lower interest rate environment, it seems we may finally be nearing a bottom in the stock market.  Nevertheless, we haven't experienced the classic "capitulation", or panic selling / crash that is typically indicative of a market bottom.  Therefore, it is important to keep a conservative bias.

Given all the pain and volatility over the past few months, I am content having a sizeable cash position available for any weakness.  In a bull market, my cash position would be closer to 8%.  Indeed, it would probably pay off in the short-term to put some more of my cash to work right now, but I don't mind missing a few extra dollars of upside for the added security that my cash position provides me.



Discretionary Portfolio as of 3/18/2008
  • Cash - 29.3%
  • Altria (MO) - 12.4%
  • Deere (DE) - 7.9%
  • Hudson City Bank (HCBK) - 7.2%
  • McDonalds (MCD) - 7.2%
  • Proctor & Gamble (PG) - 6.9%
  • Jones Apparel (JNY) - 6.3%
  • Transocean (RIG) -6.0%
  • Mosaic (MOS) - 5.5%
  • Apple (AAPL) - 4.2%
  • AT&T (T) - 3.7%
  • British Petroleum (BP) - 3.2%


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


Edited by geokills (03/18/08 07:59 PM)


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflineDerk
Friend
Male


Registered: 01/10/08
Posts: 272
Last seen: 15 years, 5 months
Re: Happy 420! - Dow Jones Industrial Average up 420 points! [Re: geokills]
    #8163398 - 03/18/08 06:08 PM (15 years, 10 months ago)

Holy shit Apple gained almost 15 dollars in 2 days time! Gonna sell my shares tomorrow if it opens well. (I play virtual market on Updown =/, it's a lot of fun though!)

So far I'm up 1.05% total gains with 30k in 2 days. Too bad it's not real lol.

Gold is down right now, I'm very tempted to buy some real shares and hope it goes back up. I probably definately will if it hits a low of $93 or so.


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflinegeokillsA
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Male User Gallery

Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels Flag
Last seen: 6 hours, 23 minutes
Stock Update for March 19, 2008 - PBR, AUY [Re: geokills]
    #8166725 - 03/19/08 01:47 PM (15 years, 10 months ago)

  • Petrobras (PBR) - Currently Trading at $98.15

    I introduced this name a few weeks ago in this thread and have been patiently waiting for a decent entry level. Petrobras is a Brazilian oil outfit that late last year found the largest oil reserve on the planet to date, just off the coast of Brazil. Commodities (such as gold, oil, minerals, metals) have been weak today, down some ~5% give or take. With PBR over 20% off of its recent highs, I am using this weakness to initiate a position just below $100 a share. In keeping with my investment discipline, I plan to build a position incrementally as commodities may continue to cool off in the near-term as the dollar has started to see a little strength over the past couple of days, and there is a general de-leveraging process going on in the commodity market. This de-leveraging is a result of recent liquidity problems that are likely going to cause lenders to require more collateral for future margin purchases (purchases made with loaned money). Therefore, a lot of hedge funds and large investors who buy on margin, are probably selling off their gains in commodities in order to raise capital/collateral for future purchases. Furthermore, as I also hold positions in Transocean (RIG) and British Petroleum (BP), I am taking a "basket" approach to my oil sector exposure - instead of holding one large position in a single oil comapny, I am going to hold three small-to-moderately sized positions in a few different companies. I believe oil will sustain its longterm growth trend, and with the Brazilian economy strong in addition to PBR's recent HUGE oil find, I plan to hold Petrobras as a long-term investment.


  • Yamana Gold (AUY) - Currently Trading at $16.65

    This gold mining company also offers international exposure concentrated in Latin America. It does not do much hedging of its contracts, and therefore its profits will move largely in step with the spot price for gold. With gold falling from its highs above $1000 an ounce, down to the mid $900 level, this gold stock also finds itself some 15% off of its recent highs. It is here that I am stepping in to initiate a small position. As with Petrobras, this stock is highly levered to the commodity markets, and those are cooling off rapidly today. With this in mind, I intend to make purchases incrementally, in order to take advantage of any continued weakness in the commodity space.


Foster Wheeler (FWLT) and Jacobs Engineering (JEC) are looking really ripe for the picking at these levels, $53 and $71 respectively. However, my portfolio is getting a little bloated and I think I've done enough buying for one day. I don't want to get too agressive as this is an options expiration week, which typically results in higher than average volatility. Not to mention that the aggregate health of the market still isn't great - and though the sun has shined on equities this week, clouds could cover the space at any moment. With thirteen active positions in my discretionary portfolio, it may not be wise to add more as it will make it increasingly difficult to keep up to date on all of them as any news breaks.


Discretionary Portfolio as of 3/19/2008:
  • Cash - 22%
  • Altria (MO) - 12.5%
  • Deere (DE) - 7.8%
  • Hudson City (HCBK) - 7.3%
  • McDonalds (MCD) - 7.2%
  • Proctor & Gamble (PG) - 7.0%
  • Jones Apparel (JNY) - 6.4%
  • Transocean (RIG) - 5.9%
  • Mosaic (MOS) - 5.1%
  • British Petroleum (BP) - 4.9%
  • Apple (AAPL) - 4.2%
  • AT&T (T) - 3.7%
  • Petrobras (PBR) - 3.3%
  • Yamana Gold (AUY) - 2.8%


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflineDerk
Friend
Male


Registered: 01/10/08
Posts: 272
Last seen: 15 years, 5 months
Re: Happy 420! - Dow Jones Industrial Average up 420 points! [Re: Derk]
    #8166745 - 03/19/08 01:50 PM (15 years, 10 months ago)

Very nice calls on Visa and JEC, Geo. I love you even more.

GLD is down even more today to almost $93. Do you think I should invest for real in this shit or you think it is not going to go back up?


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflinegeokillsA
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Male User Gallery

Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels Flag
Last seen: 6 hours, 23 minutes
Re: Happy 420! - Dow Jones Industrial Average up 420 points! [Re: Derk]
    #8167466 - 03/19/08 03:58 PM (15 years, 10 months ago)

Well obviously I'm not too worried about gold, because I just initiated a position in Yamana Gold (AUY) today. Gold will probably be under pressure for a little while though, as it stumbles around the psychological $1000 mark. People in the gold industry whom I've listened to speak (the CEO's of both Yamana and Agnico-Eagle Mines), believe gold will continue to rise, with estimates stated between $1600 - $2000 an ounce. Of course there's really no telling, and if the dollar continues to rise in a strong way, it'll be very hard for gold to continue its push higher. I am investing in AUY not necessarily for short-term gains, but as a hedge against the falling dollar. I consider it inflation insurance for the portfolio, and so long as the people in the industry continue to see higher prices and the dollar continues to be under pressure, I'm willing to stick it out.


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Offlinephi1618
old hand

Registered: 02/14/04
Posts: 4,102
Last seen: 13 years, 8 months
Re: Happy 420! - Dow Jones Industrial Average up 420 points! [Re: geokills]
    #8167710 - 03/19/08 04:30 PM (15 years, 10 months ago)

Crazy market - BTW, there is continued chaos in the credit markets that makes me think we haven't seen the worst in the stock market - this schizophrenic behavior could continue for some time, so be careful.


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflineDerk
Friend
Male


Registered: 01/10/08
Posts: 272
Last seen: 15 years, 5 months
Re: Happy 420! - Dow Jones Industrial Average up 420 points! [Re: phi1618]
    #8167763 - 03/19/08 04:38 PM (15 years, 10 months ago)

There are different kinds of gold to invest in? o.0 how you know which ones to invest in? Man I'm so stupid. And I thought the dollar was still falling.

What banks do you suggest investing in? The Fed seems pretty gung-ho in not letting them fall, so I'm not very afraid of losing money if I was to invest in already extremely low prices.

EDIT: Why have Yamana and Agnico-Eagle Mines fallen so heavily in the past few days? What happened??? o.0


Edited by Derk (03/19/08 04:40 PM)


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflinegeokillsA
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Male User Gallery

Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels Flag
Last seen: 6 hours, 23 minutes
Re: Happy 420! - Dow Jones Industrial Average up 420 points! [Re: Derk]
    #8167952 - 03/19/08 05:10 PM (15 years, 10 months ago)

You need to educate yourself more before you start putting money in the market my friend. If you read my post today about my purchases in PBR and AUY, you will see that I explain de-leveraging is one of the primary reasons why commodity stocks are getting hit hard right now.

Quote:

... commodities may continue to cool off in the near-term as the dollar has started to see a little strength over the past couple of days, and there is a general de-leveraging process going on in the commodity market. This de-leveraging is a result of recent liquidity problems that are likely going to cause lenders to require more collateral for future margin purchases (purchases made with loaned money). Therefore, a lot of hedge funds and large investors who buy on margin, are probably selling off their gains in commodities in order to raise capital/collateral for future purchases.




The dollar is still in a long-term down trend. It has been strong only a couple of days this week, but that is just greater proof of how quickly the market sentiment can change, and why you need to learn more about how different sectors of the economy are tied together, and in general how the market tends to react emotionally over the near-term. It is probably not likely that the dollar will see continued strength in the coming months, but it is something that must be considered, particularly if you are intending to invest in dollar-priced commodities such as oil and gold.

In so far as banks, again, read my previous updates and look at my portfolio. I'm playing with an open hand here, quite literally putting my money where my mouth is. Right now, my financial sector exposure comes from Hudson City Bank (HCBK), one of the few financial stocks that is at its 52-week high. Other banks I would consider looking into include JP Morgan (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC)... but make no mistake, I'm not itching to gain anymore financial sector exposure right now, because that sector is at the heart of the market's turmoil and quite frankly, dangerous.


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflineDerk
Friend
Male


Registered: 01/10/08
Posts: 272
Last seen: 15 years, 5 months
Re: Happy 420! - Dow Jones Industrial Average up 420 points! [Re: geokills]
    #8168120 - 03/19/08 05:36 PM (15 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

geokills said:
You need to educate yourself more before you start putting money in the market my friend. If you read my post today about my purchases in PBR and AUY, you will see that I explain de-leveraging is one of the primary reasons why commodity stocks are getting hit hard right now.






Cramer's books are coming in the mail as we speak. I'm trying my best to understand certain things. Just some terms and trends I can't quite grasp yet. Did I say some? I meant a few. I mean many.


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflinegeokillsA
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Male User Gallery

Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels Flag
Last seen: 6 hours, 23 minutes
Portfolio Review - Sector Exposure & Diversification [Re: phi1618]
    #8168227 - 03/19/08 05:52 PM (15 years, 10 months ago)

I agree with you phi1618, it's a little nerve wracking, but I try to remember that these short-term swings really aren't cause to get my panties in a bunch. The majority of my investments are based on a long-term thesis, and many of my holdings provide dividend yields at or better than the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond, so weathering the storm shouldn't be too difficult.

Nevertheless, to the extent that I have been immersing myself in the markets on a daily basis, it surely doesn't feel good on days like today when the market tanks - and it reminds me of the necessity for caution. This is partly why I have kept such a large cash position on hand. And while I am confident in the names I initiated today, I am a little weary of beginning to dip into my protective cash position because like you, I could believe that we have more to fall before things really start to trend positively again.

On that note, I am going to do a little bit of sector analysis on my portfolio, to make sure that I am maintaining diversification, and to see where I might need to lighten up or bulk up in order to protect myself. I am grouping together sectors that tend to move in tandem with each other.

  • 22% Cash - $

  • 20% Consumer Staples - MO/PG

  • 14% Oil - RIG/PBR/BP
  • 13% Agriculture - MOS/DE
  • 3% Gold - AUY

  • 7% Financial - HCBK

  • 7% Casual Dining - MCD
  • 6% Retail - JNY

  • 4% Technology - AAPL
  • 4% Telecommunications - T


Analyzing my portfolio in this manner is a bit of an eye opener. Cash looks good. The Consumer Staples are safe, with both stocks paying a good dividend, and consumer staples naturally being relatively stable since they are comprised of products that people will buy regardless of the macro-economy's strength (people who smoke aren't going to stop buying cigarettes, nor will people stop buying personal hygiene products).

The problem begins to make itself apparent when looking at my Oil and Ag exposure. While I believe it is safe to have up to 20% of my portfolio in any one sector, I am getting the feeling that Oil and Ag are on shaky ground right now given the aforementioned de-leveraging and dollar strength that led to a rapid selloff today. In retrospect, I should have taken some profits on my Mosaic (MOS) position when it reached $110 yesterday, and perhaps I shouldn't have been so quick to put more cash to work in Deere (DE) when it hit $80. In truth, it is the Ag stocks that have me the most concerned, as they trade with high PE multiples and on lofty expectations for future growth, and they fail to pay any decent dividends.

While I believe that Agriculture still has a lot of growth potential thanks to the proliferation of bio-based fuels in addition to the rising desire for less-efficient food (i.e. meat) which requires more grain to be grown for feed... I still can't help but wish I weren't so exposed to this sector right now. I have a feeling we could see another 10% leg down on the Ag names in the near-term, but we're at a point where I'm not comfortable buying or selling either of these names... so I'll just have to take a wait and see approach for the time being.

In efforts to re-distribute my exposure to various sectors of the economy over the coming weeks, I will aim to book some profits in Deere if it can climb back up above $85. If Apple falls back towards $120 or Google falls back toward $400, I will probably buy some of those in order to re-build my technology position which I had lightened (with good cause) in the beginning of the year. I will also look to gain infrastructure/engineering exposure through a purchase of Jacobs Engineering or Foster Wheeler, both of which I have been interested in for quite some time. I am also likely to make another purchase in Yamana Gold should the stock reach $15.

On the whole, I don't mind being underweight on retail, finance, telecommunications or technology... as these sectors don't have much going for them right now. The reason I am holding on to these positions is because I believe they will eventually recover and all of them (with the exception of technology) offer strong dividends. I do still see long-term value in Apple and Google, so I would be content to get back into those names once the price is right. I think the most prudent move for me right now is to get my head wrapped around my Agriculture exposure, and perhaps focus on only one name in the sector... because having too much to follow just makes things more difficult, and thus prone to greater losses if I can't keep up to date on the things I own.


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflinegeokillsA
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Male User Gallery

Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels Flag
Last seen: 6 hours, 23 minutes
Stock Update for March 20, 2008 - HCBK, MOS [Re: geokills]
    #8173056 - 03/20/08 06:39 PM (15 years, 10 months ago)

Another wickedly volatile week for the markets, though this time with upside. Unfortunately, it would have paid off to have waited an extra week to put money to work in the commodity space, as my gold, oil, and agricultural commodity stocks really took a beating over the last few days thanks to the dollar strength and hedge fund de-leveraging (explained here). Nevertheless, I do not believe that the bull markets in oil and agriculture are going to be over anytime soon. A correction is inevitable, and in my view presents a valuable buying opportunity.

  • Hudson City Bank Corp (HCBK) - Currently Trading at $18.29

    This one has been just great for me. Now over 17% above my cost basis, I sold one third of my position today. One of the few financial stocks to show consistent strength throughout the past year, in fact one of the few stocks period, that has been able to hit its 52-week high in this grueling market. Well managed, a conservative lender, this regional bank also offers a welcome 2% dividend. Nevertheless, after scoring a 17% gain in about a month, the prudent move is to book some profits. I am still leaving 2/3 of my position on the table here, as it's still a great bank, but not nearly as attractive as it was when it was trading around my cost basis of $15.59. Financial stocks in general have been outperforming the market this week, and whenever one sector is outperforming, it's a good idea to take the handsome gains while you got 'em... and then use that money to buy back the shares you sold once that sector falls out of favor again.


  • Mosaic (MOS) - Currently Trading at $92.01

    As noted in my opening statement, the whole commodity space has been getting brutally slashed this week. While I wish I would have sold some of my Mosaic when it was trading closer to $110 on Tuesday, it's too late for that now. Still believing in the long-term outlook for agricultural commodities (i.e. fertilizer), I believe Mosaic will have pricing power on its side and should continue to deliver exceptional results. With this in mind, I have lowered my cost basis by making a purchase today, adding approximately 1/3 to my position at $90 a share.


No trading tomorrow, however should the commodities continue their downtrend next week, I will look to continue adding to my positions. Yamana Gold (AUY), which I initiated this week, is already down close to 5% from my basis (though 20% from its recent high). In keeping with my discipline, I purchased only 1/3 of what I would typically consider a full position, and have plenty of room to add to this name on further weakness. They will report their quarterly earnings on Tuesday, which should be strong. I will look to buy below $15 a share on Monday. Petrobras (PBR), the Brazilian oil outfit is also down some 4% from where I initiated the name this week, and if it reaches below $90, I will surely be a buyer.

A quick note on all this oil and commodity buying, since I noted yesterday how I have been concerned about my increasing exposure to oils and agriculture in particular. This will definitely skew the diversified nature of my portfolio - however, this sector has been taking such a wild beating this week that I believe continued losses of this magnitude to be unsustainable. Oil and Agriculture are not going anywhere, and when a certain sector vastly underperforms the market short term, it often pays to stock up in the short term. Of course, as soon as there is strength, I will re-balance the portfolio by selling off some of the commodity-related shares that I was able to purchase at these bargain levels.

I think that's it for now... I'm glad I get tomorrow off - the swings in this market have been driving me a little batty. I woke up a half hour after the trading day began, to see Foster Wheeler (FWLT) had traded down to $47 right after the open. Kicking myself for not having set my alarm a half-hour earlier, I put in a bid for $50 when the stock was trading at roughly $50.25... unfortunately, strength carried it like a rocket, to close the day at $54.29 (even higher in after hours trading). A shame, another day trading opportunity to bag a quick 10% failed. Ah well, there'll be other days and new opportunities to come. Keep your head up, the market is looking quite a bit healthier now that our government agencies (namely the Fed and Treasury) are finally working together to find solutions to the current housing and credit crisis. Even so, barring my increased short term exposure to commodities, I will be keeping an eye out for secure, high yielding dividend stocks, and looking to maintain a minimum 10 - 15% cash position for any unforeseen weakness.


Discretionary Portfolio as of 3/20/08:
  • 23% Cash
  • 12.4% Altria (MO)
  • 7.7% Deere (DE)
  • 7.3% McDonalds (MCD)
  • 7.1% Proctor & Gamble (PG)
  • 6.9% Jones Apparel (JNY)
  • 6.5% Mosaic (MOS)
  • 5.8% Transocean (RIG)
  • 4.8% British Petroleum (BP)
  • 4.6% Hudson City Bank (HCBK)
  • 4.3% Apple (AAPL)
  • 3.8% AT&T (T)
  • 3.2% Petrobras (PBR)
  • 2.7% Yamana Gold (AUY)


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleCowgold
Bullshit

Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 04/04/05
Posts: 12,486
Loc: .
Re: Stock Update for March 20, 2008 - HCBK, MOS, MO [Re: geokills]
    #8173893 - 03/20/08 10:10 PM (15 years, 10 months ago)

Geokills, I just want to say that I'm really impressed with your trading discipline. I've been learning a lot from your posts and think that your disclosure is a really rare find.


Thanks!


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflinegeokillsA
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Male User Gallery

Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels Flag
Last seen: 6 hours, 23 minutes
Re: Stock Update for March 20, 2008 - HCBK, MOS, MO [Re: Cowgold]
    #8174411 - 03/20/08 11:51 PM (15 years, 10 months ago)

Glad you're enjoying it... I'm learning a heap from this too! 

This is the first time I've kept a trading journal, and being able to go back and evaluate my actions definitely affrords me a clearer picture of how things went wrong.  :wink:


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Offlinesnoot
look alive ∞
Male User Gallery


Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 01/30/05
Posts: 9,640
Loc: 45º parallel Flag
Last seen: 3 days, 22 hours
Re: Stock Update for March 20, 2008 - HCBK, MOS, MO [Re: geokills]
    #8174479 - 03/21/08 12:10 AM (15 years, 10 months ago)

Hola, I dont know if you guys are aware of Star Tech Environmental Corp, but I've been looking into them for sometime, and they are actively seeking investors. What they are doing is developing the first waste-to-energy using high powered self efficient plasma arc technology, its very fascinating stuff. Basically they're machine which is no bigger then a garbage dumpster, it takes almost any material other then that of radioactive waste and nuclear bombs, and sends it threw a vessel which includes a plasma torch, that burns the material at temperatures hotter then the sun, but thats not the amazing part, they have developed away to use the gases that come off of it, to produce power, not only that but alot of power. The thing becomes self sustaining, so it would operate even in black outs, and all it would be needed to keep it running would be too feed it garbage of any kind. Its fascinating stuff, and there technology is developing quick. There stock's have ben up in down over the past two years. But remain high and open to the public;




"Startech Environmental Corporation was incorporated in 1993 in Colorado and is currently listed on the OTC Bulletin Board stock exchange under the ticker symbol STHK.OB. Our cusip number is 855906103 and there are approximately 3,000 Startech shareholders. Startech stock can be bought or sold through a stockbroker, or generally through a financial institution that provides brokerage services."

how it works ;
Quote:

Plasma is simply a gas (air) that the Converter ionizes so it becomes an effective electrical conductor and produces a lightning-like arc of electricity that is the source of the intense energy transferred to the waste material as radiant energy. The arc in the plasma plume within the vessel can be as high as 30,000 degrees Fahrenheit ... three times hotter than the surface of the Sun. When waste materials are subjected to the intensity of the energy transfer within the vessel, the excitation of the wastes' molecular bonds is so great that the waste materials' molecules break apart into their elemental components (atoms). It is the absorption of this energy by the waste material that forces the waste destruction and elemental dissociation. The Plasma Converter is computer controlled, easy to use and operates at normal atmospheric pressure, very safely and quitely.




Efficiency
The following is an example input-effluent case:

(Source: Scott Budich, Executive Sales Manage, StarTech; Jan. 15, 2007)
IN:
[9.3 million BTU (inherent content of solid waste)]
1.8 million BTU electricity
subtotal: 11.1 mil BTU
OUT:
8.1 million BTU
Conclusions:
Electricity-to-fuel efficiency: 4.5-fold
Waste-to-fuel Conversion efficiency: 73%





Here's some basic information on there corporation and how things work;
Quote:

Feed System

The feed mechanism can simultaneously accommodate any proportion or combination of solid, liquid and gaseous feedstock. Solid wastes, depending upon their composition, can be pumped, screw fed, or ram fed into the plasma vessel. A shredder ahead of the feed system may be appropriate to achieve size reduction or object separation prior to direct system feed.

Liquid wastes, including sludge, can be pumped directly into the PCS through the wall of the plasma vessel through a special in-feed nozzle. The liquid feed system is designed to also accommodate any entrained solids that may be present. Similarly, gaseous feedstock may also be introduced into the plasma vessel through a specially designed nozzle.

Plasma Vessel

The plasma vessel is a cylindrical two-part container made of stainless steel with an opening in the roof through which the plasma torch is inserted. The vessel is lined with insulation and refractory to allow both maximum retention of internal energy and to protect the stainless steel container from the intense heat inside the vessel. The plasma vessel is equipped with inspection ports (including a video camera so the operator can see real time images inside the vessel to assist in PCS operation), openings for introduction of feedstock, and an exit port for removal of excess molten material. The smaller vessels are designed to remove molten material periodically through an automated tipping mechanism during which time the vessel may or may not remain in continuous operation. A design enhancement incorporated into the most recently constructed system is a continuous melt extraction feature which maintains the level of molten material in the plasma vessel at or below a preset limit without interrupting the operation of the system. This melt extraction system can be deployed with all sizes of Plasma Converters.

The plasma vessel is specially designed to ensure that no feedstock material is able to reach the exit port without first passing through the plasma energy field and undergoing complete molecular dissociation. The method by which this is accomplished forms a part of Startech's intellectual property. In addition, the plasma vessel is maintained at a slight negative pressure to ensure that no gases can escape to atmosphere.

The plasma torch system is a commercially available product that Startech can purchase from any number of reputable vendors. Comparable plasma systems have been used extensively in the metallurgical industry for decades. The most maintenance-intensive aspect of the PCS is the need to periodically replace electrodes, which occurs approximately every 300 to 500 hours of operation (typical). Electrode replacement can be accomplished in approximately 30 minutes thus ensuring minimum downtime of the PCS.

The PCS is also equipped with a torch positional system that allows the operator to aim the torch at different points within the plasma vessel. This aspect of the PCS allows the operator to quickly and efficiently treat feedstock as they enter the vessel and move around inside the vessel to avoid any build-up of solidified melt that may occur on the vessel walls.

Return to top

Gas Treatment System

The gas treatment system is comprised of six stages:
High temperature cyclone separator to remove particulates
Quench stage (with heat recovery, if desired)
Cartridge dust collector to remove particulates
Selective catalytic reduction to remove NOx
Packed column scrubber to remove acids and volatized metals
Final polishing
High Temperature Cyclone Separator
The initial step of the gas treating process is a pre-quench in which the PCG is cooled from approximately 1000°C down to 650°C by direct water injection with a conventional spray dryer arrangement. The PCG then flows through a refractory lined pipe into a conventional, insulated cyclone fabricated with high temperature alloy and designed to operate at high temperatures. The purpose of the cyclone is to remove particulate matter, which is then collected and batch-fed back into the plasma vessel.

Quench
PCG then flows to a spray dryer designed to rapidly reduce the gas temperature from approximately 650°C down to 120°C. The importance of this temperature reduction is to ensure that dioxins and furans, troublesome by-products of incineration, do not form. In order for dioxins and furans to form, the gas would need to remain in a specific temperature zone (e.g., 190°C to 330°C) for some period of time - conditions which are precluded by the quench.

Cartridge Dust Collector
PCG then flows to a commercial pulsejet cartridge dust collector with high-temperature cartridges and heating elements to prevent condensation. This unit is capable of automatically "blowing back" collected solids that are collected and batch-fed back into the plasma vessel.

Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR)
Upon exiting the dust collector, the PCG is reheated to approximately 310°C for selective catalytic reduction of NOx in a standard unit designed for this application where hydrogen present in the PCG reacts with NOx to form atmospheric nitrogen and water. During periods where there is no hydrogen in the PCG (e.g. during start-up, when processing materials that do not contain carbon), urea is added to reduce the NOx.

Packed Column Scrubber
Upon exiting the SCR, PCG undergoes a final quench with direct water injection to reduce the temperature below 50°C. This prepares the PCG for acid gas removal, which is accomplished in a standard horizontal packed column scrubber. Other inorganic species dissolve into the scrubbing liquid as common ions including chloride, fluoride, sulphate, phosphate, sodium and calcium. To manage the build-up of salts, the scrubbing solution is removed and replenished with fresh water. The wastewater typically requires no further treatment prior to discharge to sewer, except in the event there is a high concentration of heavy metals entering the system as feedstock. Approximately 75% of metals go into the melt with the remainder being volatilized and entrained in the PCG where they are captured in the scrubber and carbon filter (see below). The wastewater also contains particulates below one micron.

Finally, a standard variable speed fan at the exit of the gas treatment train pulls PCG through the entire system and maintains a constant, slight negative pressure within the plasma vessel.

The system has been designed so that it is comfortable, intuitive, and easy to use. The skill level of the operator need not be any higher than one having a reasonable technical aptitude.






Here is a newswire from Star Tech;

Startech Environmental Sells Plasma Waste Converter To Process Chemical Industry Hazardous Waste in Taiwan

    WILTON, Conn., July 22 /PRNewswire/ -- Startech Environmental Corp.
(OTC Bulletin Board: STHK), a fully reporting company, announced today that it
has signed the contract for the sale of a 10-ton per day commercial Plasma
Waste Converter system (PWC)(TM) with the Meridian Industrial Solutions
Corporation, a U.S. corporation with offices in New Jersey, California and
Taiwan.  The contract provides for significant down-payments and manufacturing
progress payments.  Meridian, the Startech exclusive distributor for Taiwan,
has asked that the financial details of their purchase be confidential.
    Dr. H.E. Wu and Mr. Jose A. Capote, Principals of Meridian said, "The
10-ton per day PWC that will process chemical industry hazardous wastes will
be followed by several 50-ton per day systems for a plant that we will build,
own and operate to process a wide variety of solid and liquid industrial and
hazardous wastes.  Beyond chemical and industrial wastes, we are also focusing
on utilizing the PWC system to destroy military wastes.  Incinerators should
not be used in these applications."
    They also said, "Over the last several months, we looked at many companies
and technologies from different parts of the world.  We chose Startech because
the PWC system gives us the unique capability to destroy a wide range of
wastes, using a single unit.  Startech's achievements in safely destroying
military and chemical weapons for the U.S. Army gave us the highest level of
confidence in the PWC's ability to do it all."
    Mr. Longo, President of Startech, said, "Meridian is a full-service
environmental engineering/construction and waste management firm.  Their team
is made up of experienced executives with solid engineering and management
backgrounds in the environmental and waste management businesses.  Meridian's
partners also include leaders in the Taiwanese environmental, waste management
and recycling industries."

    Startech is an environmental equipment company whose Plasma Waste
Converters remediate and safely process hazardous and non-hazardous wastes
comprised of organic and inorganic solids, gases, and aqueous and non-aqueous
liquids by its proprietary method of molecular dissociation and closed-loop
elemental recycling.  The PWC system can convert many hazardous and
non-hazardous wastes into commercially useful commodity products. It is not an
incinerator.


Here's a list of recent press release's;

http://www.prnewswire.com/gh/cnoc/comp/113537.html


and finally a qoute from the ceo himself;
Quote:

Startech VP and CFO, Peter Scanlon, said, "With sales in Asia, Europe
and North America, and manufacturing well under way, the Company has never
before been as strong as it is today, and getting stronger. We're all very
optimistic about Startech's future.
"







    •••• 


personally I find this all to be very fascinating technology, especially at this point in human history, where we no longer desire such efficient but we almost require them at this point, so I can only imagine great things in store for this corporation.
 


Cheers ~ ursa :boobs:

http://peswiki.com/index.php/Directory:StarTech_Environmental_Corp

http://www.startech.net/plasma.html


--------------------



I am incapable of conceiving infinity, and yet I do not accept finity.
- Simone de Beauvoir -


Edited by snoot (03/21/08 12:17 AM)


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Jump to top Pages: < Back | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | Next > | Last >

Shop: PhytoExtractum Kratom Powder for Sale   Kraken Kratom Kratom Capsules for Sale   Left Coast Kratom Buy Kratom Capsules   Original Sensible Seeds Bulk Cannabis Seeds   Unfolding Nature Unfolding Nature: Being in the Implicate Order   North Spore Cultivation Supplies   Bridgetown Botanicals CBD Concentrates


Similar ThreadsPosterViewsRepliesLast post
* Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects
( 1 2 3 4 ... 500 501 )
geokillsA 250,329 10,002 01/27/24 05:04 PM
by geokills
* Does this look legit? The24HourMC 1,559 1 03/01/10 02:43 PM
by geokills
* Helium Network [US]: Low Cost Mobile Service with ROI for Providing Distributed Connectivity geokillsA 199 0 01/21/24 10:48 AM
by geokills
* Pretty good interest on my savings, but best strat? skOsH 188 4 01/21/24 03:40 PM
by Bungmurphy

Extra information
You cannot start new topics / You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled / BBCode is enabled
Moderator: geokills, automan
296,583 topic views. 0 members, 1 guests and 2 web crawlers are browsing this forum.
[ Show Images Only | Sort by Score | Print Topic ]
Search this thread:

Copyright 1997-2024 Mind Media. Some rights reserved.

Generated in 0.029 seconds spending 0.006 seconds on 14 queries.