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AnonymousRabbit
Comrade


Registered: 01/10/08
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#8106547 - 03/05/08 03:09 PM (15 years, 10 months ago) |
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Edited by AnonymousRabbit (05/18/22 11:04 PM)
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fireworks_god
Sexy.Butt.McDanger



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Re: Texas Two Step --- How Obama May Have Won Texas [Re: AnonymousRabbit]
#8106567 - 03/05/08 03:14 PM (15 years, 10 months ago) |
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It isn't about the math. The math simply says that neither candidate is going to make any real headway. It is a psychological race from here on out, and that was Clinton's big win.
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If I should die this very moment I wouldn't fear For I've never known completeness Like being here Wrapped in the warmth of you Loving every breath of you
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AnonymousRabbit
Comrade


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fireworks_god
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Re: Texas Two Step --- How Obama May Have Won Texas [Re: AnonymousRabbit]
#8107199 - 03/05/08 05:37 PM (15 years, 10 months ago) |
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Hey look, Lonestar is a statistic!
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If I should die this very moment I wouldn't fear For I've never known completeness Like being here Wrapped in the warmth of you Loving every breath of you
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vonhumboldt
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Re: Texas Two Step --- How Obama May Have Won Texas [Re: fireworks_god]
#8107278 - 03/05/08 05:52 PM (15 years, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
fireworks_god said: It isn't about the math. The math simply says that neither candidate is going to make any real headway. It is a psychological race from here on out, and that was Clinton's big win.
You've said this before and it still makes no sense. The math of the campaigns is what determines the nominee. Whoever gets to 2,024 first wins. Obama will continue to be ahead of Clinton in the count unless the super delegates decide to go against the will of voters and crown Clinton. So, yes - the math is very important. A shift of momentum means nothing when the numbers do not favor you.
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fireworks_god
Sexy.Butt.McDanger



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Re: Texas Two Step --- How Obama May Have Won Texas [Re: vonhumboldt]
#8107717 - 03/05/08 07:23 PM (15 years, 10 months ago) |
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It was my vauge understanding that there is no way he can get enough pledged delegates to secure the nomination either, but I haven't read that much into the numbers. Care to demonstrate that he can win the nomination through pledged delegates (I'm not saying its impossible, but that's the impression I was given)?
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vonhumboldt
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Re: Texas Two Step --- How Obama May Have Won Texas [Re: fireworks_god]
#8108681 - 03/05/08 09:54 PM (15 years, 10 months ago) |
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Well, no one can get to 2,024 without super delegates. Pledged delegates won are not enough to get to that number.
Currently, Obama is ahead in pledged delegates. Clinton and Obama are nearly tied in the number of super delegates that have voiced support respectively.
Clinton cannot pull ahead in pledged delegates - it simply will not happen. She is not mathematically out of the race yet, but for all practical purposes, she will not get 65+% of the delegates from all the remaining primaries and caucuses which is the number she'll need to just catch up to Obama. Thus, if she decides to stay in the race despite this, the decision of who wins the nomination will be in the hands of the unelected super delegates.
Clinton must convince the super delegates that are either undecided or currently support Obama to vote against the will of the voting public. That is the only way she can pull this off. She will need to convince a large majority of the super delegates to come to her side (and leave Obama's side) and go against the will of the voting public. I dont see this happening if they want to win in November and not destroy the party ala 1972.
Obama, on the other hand, has a lead in pledged delegates, more states won, a higher popular vote total (unlikely Clinton can take the lead on this as well), and sizable chunk of supportive super delegates. Obama has a better case for the undecided super delegates to vote for him without having to tear apart the party and risk losing to McCain with all the chaos of such a controversial convention and only having 8 weeks to campaign in the GE.
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Derk
Friend



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Re: Texas Two Step --- How Obama May Have Won Texas [Re: vonhumboldt]
#8109033 - 03/05/08 11:32 PM (15 years, 10 months ago) |
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So who the FUCK won Texas?
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vonhumboldt
Stranger
Registered: 02/28/08
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Re: Texas Two Step --- How Obama May Have Won Texas [Re: Derk]
#8109123 - 03/05/08 11:58 PM (15 years, 10 months ago) |
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Clinton won the primaries, but Obama won the caucus thus more delegates.
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AnonymousRabbit
Comrade


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afoaf
CEO DBK?



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Re: Texas Two Step --- How Obama May Have Won Texas [Re: AnonymousRabbit]
#8110165 - 03/06/08 08:57 AM (15 years, 10 months ago) |
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I think it's fucking ludicrous that a state would allow an open primary this late in the election cycle.
I'm ambivalent about open elections...I like to not have to reregister as necessary each year, but the fact remains that open primaries are regularly used by the opposing party to sabotage the other.
fuck texas.
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lonestar2004
Live to party,work to affordit.


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Re: Texas Two Step --- How Obama May Have Won Texas [Re: afoaf]
#8110169 - 03/06/08 09:00 AM (15 years, 10 months ago) |
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It was the Texas Democrats idea.
-------------------- America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure" We have "reckless fiscal policies" America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better Barack Obama
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afoaf
CEO DBK?



Registered: 11/08/02
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Re: Texas Two Step --- How Obama May Have Won Texas [Re: lonestar2004]
#8110194 - 03/06/08 09:11 AM (15 years, 10 months ago) |
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open primaries are enacted by statewide ballot measures, aren't they?
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fireworks_god
Sexy.Butt.McDanger



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Re: Texas Two Step --- How Obama May Have Won Texas [Re: vonhumboldt]
#8110276 - 03/06/08 09:43 AM (15 years, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
vonhumboldt said: Well, no one can get to 2,024 without super delegates. Pledged delegates won are not enough to get to that number.
Currently, Obama is ahead in pledged delegates. Clinton and Obama are nearly tied in the number of super delegates that have voiced support respectively.
Exactly. Why do you think I said its not a numbers game, but a psychological one? Now, I'm not denying the importance of the numbers, but the main point I was making as the results were coming in on March 4th and now the media is making is that he can't campaign on the numbers game. He's counting his chickens before they hatch by simply thinking its how the numbers will play out. Obviously, it is about that and he needs to strategically plot those numbers to give him the best chance, but the fact remains that he has to do something in order to make those numbers go that way.
Its a psychological game. Hillary already demonstrated herself quite capable of using psychology in order to get some strong victories two days ago. If she starts taking more votes, she might not be able to win, but she can lessen the gap between her and Obama in pledged delegates.
If she accomplishes this, then the argument that the superdelegates have to vote the way the people have spoken because it will be too close to easily point to which direction they are pointing. At that point, she can used her established Clinton power to influence her fellow party leaders she has dealt with for quite some time. She can call in the favors if it goes to a smoke-filled back room.
Its psychological, and Obama has to demonstrate himself more capable on that front, or he'll never be able to alleviate the fears that McCain is more capable of protecting us from terrorists. Otherwise, McCain will win the nomination. Sparring with Clinton now is his only chance to figure out how to beat McCain. Remember, he's sitting on the sidelines, gathering his resources and subtly interacting with the Republican party to unify them, aligning himself for a strong campaign for the Independents he needs and that Obama is potentially far more capable of attracting, including the fact that the Democratic party (if unified), is receiving millions of more votes in the primaries, and he's standing over them watching them fight each other, learning their weak spots and strategizing.
If he doesn't quickly learn how to stamp his foot squarely on Clinton's face and propel himself upwards from her, McCain will overpower him from all sides. He needs to launch himself now.
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If I should die this very moment I wouldn't fear For I've never known completeness Like being here Wrapped in the warmth of you Loving every breath of you
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lonestar2004
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Re: Texas Two Step --- How Obama May Have Won Texas [Re: afoaf]
#8110537 - 03/06/08 11:19 AM (15 years, 10 months ago) |
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oh yea, i was thinking about the democrats delegate process.
BTW who won California's primary. Obama or the Clinton's?
-------------------- America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure" We have "reckless fiscal policies" America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better Barack Obama
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vonhumboldt
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Re: Texas Two Step --- How Obama May Have Won Texas [Re: fireworks_god]
#8110571 - 03/06/08 11:26 AM (15 years, 10 months ago) |
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The point I have made is that super delegates have a long history of being in accord with the voters (the candidate that wins the pledged delegate count). Obama has won this and he can easily make a case to the super delegates that he has won the vote of the citizens. Super delegates are not likely to go against this - psychological mumbojumbo and "momentum" aside.
Quote:
Its a psychological game. Hillary already demonstrated herself quite capable of using psychology in order to get some strong victories two days ago. If she starts taking more votes, she might not be able to win, but she can lessen the gap between her and Obama in pledged delegates.
Strong victories? What did she win? A net of 8 delegates? That's hardly strong at all and she will not ever lessen the gap - it's impossible. She has momentum now, but that simply does not matter and can easily shift as quickly as it came.
Quote:
If he doesn't quickly learn how to stamp his foot squarely on Clinton's face and propel himself upwards from her, McCain will overpower him from all sides. He needs to launch himself now.
Agreed and it seems as the Obama campaign will be more aggressive in their offense if you follow what Axelrod and Plouffe have been saying lately.
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fireworks_god
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Re: Texas Two Step --- How Obama May Have Won Texas [Re: vonhumboldt]
#8110746 - 03/06/08 12:11 PM (15 years, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
vonhumboldt said: The point I have made is that super delegates have a long history of being in accord with the voters (the candidate that wins the pledged delegate count). Obama has won this and he can easily make a case to the super delegates that he has won the vote of the citizens. Super delegates are not likely to go against this - psychological mumbojumbo and "momentum" aside.
No, Obama has not won this. She can close the gap and use her wins to boost herself. Thinking the race was already wrapped up is why she had a bigger win than she did - Obama failed to alleviate the concerns she raised regarding his campaign. No doubt she is raising more money now. Its very realistic that she can close the gap well enough that the "vote of the citzens" arguement will be neutralized. If Obama doesn't campaign effectively on the psychological front, he risks her getting enough leverage to win. She's pretty ruthless and not to be underestimated, she kicked his ass in Ohio and Rhode Island, remember?
Quote:
Strong victories? What did she win? A net of 8 delegates? That's hardly strong at all and she will not ever lessen the gap - it's impossible.
She won Ohio and Rhode Island with impressive double-digits. She found a very good way of campaigning Obama that made that all possible. The race isn't over. The same reason she can't win is the same reason he can't... he only has a slight advantage over her. The reason superdelegates were instituted in the first place was to prevent candidates who win the primaries but have no electability in a national campaign from going that far and blowing it. The more she closes that gap, the easier it will be for them to nominate her.
Quote:
She has momentum now, but that simply does not matter and can easily shift as quickly as it came.
It could be easily shifted, but that all depends on how Obama campaigns. Campaigning on the numbers game won't cut it.
Quote:
Agreed and it seems as the Obama campaign will be more aggressive in their offense if you follow what Axelrod and Plouffe have been saying lately.
Exactly, this is a great opportunity to learn from the mistakes that allowed this to happen in the first place. He better be learning well and he better have a great plan because he can't afford to slip up much in front of McCain. I heard someone say that whereas Hillary has a range of receiving 51% of the vote to 49% of the vote, Obama has a range of 55% to 45%. If he learns how to keep himself divine fast, he'll get that 55%.
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If I should die this very moment I wouldn't fear For I've never known completeness Like being here Wrapped in the warmth of you Loving every breath of you
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Annapurna1
liberal pussy


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Re: Texas Two Step --- How Obama May Have Won Texas [Re: AnonymousRabbit]
#8110791 - 03/06/08 12:23 PM (15 years, 10 months ago) |
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and perhaps not surprisingly..the media have handed hillary a stunning victory in TX before the votes have been counted...
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"anchor blocks counteract the process of pontiprobation..while omalean globes regulize the pressure"...
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lonestar2004
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Re: Texas Two Step --- How Obama May Have Won Texas [Re: Annapurna1]
#8110802 - 03/06/08 12:25 PM (15 years, 10 months ago) |
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This is just so much fun to watch!
-------------------- America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure" We have "reckless fiscal policies" America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better Barack Obama
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vonhumboldt
Stranger
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Re: Texas Two Step --- How Obama May Have Won Texas [Re: fireworks_god]
#8111136 - 03/06/08 02:01 PM (15 years, 10 months ago) |
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I dont see how it is possible that Clinton can catch up to Obama in pledge delegates. She'll have win 65%+ of the remaining contests which she did not do in Texas, Ohio, Vermont, and Rhode Island. Just isnt mathematically possible. And no, she didnt kick ass on Tuesday - she netted, what, 8 delegates and failed to earn the necessary commanding lead in these states.
She might win Florida and Pennsylvania, but that simply is not enough to even come close. She has to win them all with a commanding lead. Not going to happen and she already has failed at this.
Is this wrapped up? No, but Obama has numbers and a decent argument on his side to convince super delegates to stick with the voters. Super delegates are not stupid enough to tear the party apart and crown her simply based on the momentum of the moment. And if they are, they are giving McCain the GE.
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fireworks_god
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Re: Texas Two Step --- How Obama May Have Won Texas [Re: vonhumboldt]
#8111181 - 03/06/08 02:10 PM (15 years, 10 months ago) |
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I'm aware of the numbers, I am simply saying that is what she would be hoping for regarding the numbers, but the real issue here is that Obama has to use this opportunity to learn how to campaign to the people more effectively. My point is that if he simply plays the numbers game, she'll draw this out for months. He needs to cut her off very soon. In order to do that, he has to beat her at her psychological campaign. If he demonstrates he can trounce her in doing so and signify that he is ready to take McCain on blow-for-blow, he can move a lot more superdelegates to her camp, removing any incentive for her to draw this out for more months.
See what I am saying?
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If I should die this very moment I wouldn't fear For I've never known completeness Like being here Wrapped in the warmth of you Loving every breath of you
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