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Invisiblepinc
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Re: Stock Picks for January 3rd, 2008 - STJ, SGP, CVS [Re: Cowgold] * 1
    #8031008 - 02/16/08 12:08 PM (15 years, 11 months ago)

It is ALL about the penny stocks. Stocks that trade for UNDER a dollar. Blue chip stocks are pointless to invest in. Lets say I put $500 into a stock that was $50 per share, that's only 100 shares. So when that stock goes to $51, I make ten dollars. To double my money, the stock would have to goto $100, triple, $200. This is unrealistic, not saying it doesn't happen, but dollar stocks are not the way to make money. Penny, and sub-penny stocks are the gold mine. Lets say I take that $500 dollars and put it into a stock worth 1penny. That gives me 50,000 shares. So to double my money, the stock just has to goto 2cents, triple 4cents, etc. This is realistic, it happens everyday in the market.

If anyone is interested, my stock pick is BCIT. At the moment, their is a global lock on the stock and it is not currently trading, but soon this global lock will be gone, and millionaires will be born.


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InvisibleCowgold
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Re: Stock Picks for January 3rd, 2008 - STJ, SGP, CVS [Re: pinc] * 1
    #8031048 - 02/16/08 12:27 PM (15 years, 11 months ago)

Risk/Reward 

Very very rarely does a penny stock actually pan out.  They move all on hype.  I'd stay away from pennystocks.  Gamble with em if you want, but it's like betting on boxcars at the craps table. 
Pennys are the suckerbets of the stock market.  :shrug:


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InvisibleCowgold
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Re: Stock Picks for January 3rd, 2008 - STJ, SGP, CVS [Re: Cowgold] * 1
    #8031055 - 02/16/08 12:30 PM (15 years, 11 months ago)

Honestly, you probably have better odds on a craps table than with penny stocks.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Update for February 16, 2008 - NLY, T, MO, MCD, STJ, SGP, JNY, CVS, FSLR [Re: geokills] * 1
    #8031441 - 02/16/08 03:13 PM (15 years, 11 months ago)

Updates:

Have shifted around some of my positions recently, having cut back severely in the technology sector, to move into "early cycle" names as well as high dividend yielding stocks. Early cycle names are those that will benefit from an environment in which the Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates. These include retail, financials, and housing, though most of these sectors are still on shaky ground so please be very cautious and build your positions slowly over time!

My focus on dividend yielding stocks is due to the fact that lower interest rates make cash investments (such as CD's and Bonds) much less desireable since they will yield less, and are taxed at a higher rate than dividend yield distributions from stocks. If you pick them right, the stocks will carry great upside potential in addition to their safe dividend yields. As a stock price falls, the dividend yield will rise, thereby providing somewhat of a cushion - limiting your downside - and in this very tough market environment, limiting downside is more important than ever.


  • Annaly Capital Management (NLY) - Currently Trading at $20.40

    We've had a nice move up over the last couple of weeks. With the stock still yielding close to a 7% annual dividend, I have added to my position in recent weeks, and will look to add more if the price falls back to my basis around $19.40/share. With the Fed likely to continue cutting rates, this company is exceptionally well positioned to continue rising up to the mid $20's.



  • AT&T (T) - Currently Trading at $37.88

    Up and down, with the uncertainty in the economy and the fact that this one is a slow mover to begin with, it's not surprising that it hasn't done much. Still, this is meant to be a long-term holding, and not for the quick cash. With a 4% annual dividend yield and a strong growing wireless business, it's worth holding on to.



  • Altria (MO) - Currently Trading at $72.53

    Getting very close to the breakup into Phillip Morris International & Phillip Morris Domestic next month. Was removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average last week, which was expected due to the breakup, and should not have a material affect on the stock's value since most market weighted funds are aimed at mirroring the S&P 500 and not the DJIA. It has fallen down to around $72 - 73 / share recently, which offers an excellent entry point. I have been adding to my position at these levels with the belief that interest in the stock will heat up as we draw nearer to the actual breakup of the company. Yielding over 4% annually.



  • McDonalds (MCD) - Currently trading at $55.30

    When I recommended this on the 30th of January, you should have been buying. I'm only sad I didn't buy more! The stock got hit hard for a widely expected poor December domestic same-store sales comparison from the year ago period. Given the poor market environment, the stock was hit twice as hard as it should have been and has now recovered back up to around $55. With strong international growth, the relatively soft domestic sales shouldn't be a big issue and in fact have already recovered in January. Yielding close to 3% annually, I would be a buyer on weakness.



  • Schering-Plough (SGP) - Currently Trading at $21.85

    As I noted in my post on the 30th of January, I ended up selling out of this stock as soon as the the ENHANCE study on their cholesterol-lowering Vytorin drug went public, showing that it was not necessarily anymore effective than already available treatments in a specific target market of exceptionally high-cholesterol patients. This study was small however, and Vytorin is not harmful so it should remain on the market.. Therefore, after the panic really set in and the stock fell down to $18.50, I bought a few hundred shares (it fell down to $17.50 later that same day but I had moved away from my desk). Having subsequently reported a dynamite quarter, spurred in large part by their Organon Biosciences acquisition last year, the stock has rocketed back rather nicely. I have since sold 1/3 of my position at $21, and another 1/3 at $22, booking an average 16.2% gain in only a couple of weeks! Given that SGP is one of the only pharmaceutical companies that will maintain patent protection on most of its key drugs over the next several years, it is well positioned for the long-term. The Vytorin news will still keep a lid on it unfortunately, but I will look to buy back the share that I sold if the stock falls back to $20.



  • St. Jude Medical (STJ) - Currently Trading at $43.11

    Another stock that has been showing us nice gains, up some 6% from where I first recommended it here. The company is strong and has reported a good quarter, but as Schering-Plough reported a great quarter and offers a dividend whereas St. Jude does not, I would rather move these funds into SGP. I will look to sell half of my position should the stock reach $45, and am ultimately seeking a target of around $48.



  • Jones Apparel Group (JNY) - Currently Trading at $15.28

    Just started a position in this name on Thursday. It reported a better than expected quarter which resulted in an 11% gain on Wednesday last week. To my delight, Liz Claiborne (LIZ) reported a terrible quarter which caused their stock to fall over 18% on Thursday. Since JNY and LIZ are in the same sector, the bad news from LIZ outshined the good news from JNY the day prior, and resulted in JNY giving up all the gains from its good quarter. With retail poised for gains over the next 12 - 18 months thanks to the Federal Reserve's direction in continuing to lower interest rates, this made for a totally awesome entry point in a name that reported a great quarter, bbut got outshined by overal retail sector weakness. With a better than 3.6% annual dividend yield, this stock should trade back up to $20 by year's end. I would like to buy even more of this name, and will do just that if it falls below $15.



  • CVS Caremark (CVS) - Currently trading at $39.72

    As I had noted previously, I sold out of this position as soon as the news broke that Walmart will be entering the Pharmacy Benefit Management business, which should create a lot of competition for CVS. I did however make a fairly significant mistake here, and that mistake was selling all at once. Discipline warrants that one should almost always scale into and out of positions slowly over time. Having sold all at once, I missed the boat when CVS benefitted from a good quarter as well as a general resurgence in the retail sector, on account of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates, and the fact that as soon as the Fed starts to significantly cut rates, this triggers major investment managers to start moving money into retail and financial stocks since they will ultimately benefit from these actions.



  • First Solar (FSLR) - Currently Trading at $219.39

    I've been rather finicky about this name. With such a high multiple, it has definitely been what is known as a "momentum growth" stock. Given the tough market environment, high multiple growth stocks have been getting killed and the risk was just too great for me to stick with this one. I was eyeing it as it fell down below $175/share (I had originally gotten involved with it at $250!). Long story short, I missed a fantastic quarter that has only confirmed this company's dominant position in the solar power sector, which had the stock rise almost 30% overnight. I still like the name, but am still hesitant given the tough market environment for high multiple momentum growth stocks. However, if it falls back to $200, I will seriously consider getting involved.




Disclosures: I currently own (am long) NLY, T, MO, MCD, JNY, SGP, & STJ.


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OfflineRedstorm
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Re: Update for February 16, 2008 - NLY, T, MO, MCD, STJ, SGP, CVS, FSLR [Re: geokills] * 1
    #8031507 - 02/16/08 03:32 PM (15 years, 11 months ago)

If anyone is looking for a stock with good growth opportunities over the new few months, I would check out HLX. It's at 32.92 right now, but I sincerely think it will be back up over $40 in no time.


Edited by Redstorm (02/16/08 03:39 PM)


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Update for February 16, 2008 - NLY, T, MO, MCD, STJ, SGP, CVS, FSLR [Re: Redstorm] * 1
    #8031578 - 02/16/08 03:52 PM (15 years, 11 months ago)

To note, one of the major reasons HLX is probably down of late, is due to the unexpected departure of CEO Martin Ferron earlier this month. As a general rule of thumb, it is wise to be cautious when upper level management up and leaves for unknown reasons. Fortunately, they have placed Owen Kratz as the new CEO, who was actually the CEO before, between April '97 - October '06. Given two recent upside quarterly earnings surprises as well as a low valuation, you may indeed have a beaten down stock that could recover quite nicely.

For me personally, I am currently long (though I have scaled back in recent months) Transocean (RIG), a deepwater driller with the largest most capable fleet of deepwater drilling rigs worldwide. I had cut back on my position every so slightly on account of the belief that oil prices may mellow out in the short-term, what with all the worries of reduced production and recession abound. The long-term thesis on oil still holds very true however, and so I am looking to buy back the RIG shares I sold, should the stock trade towards $115 in the near term (currently at $129).


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InvisibleLiquidkick
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Re: Update for February 16, 2008 - NLY, T, MO, MCD, STJ, SGP, CVS, FSLR [Re: geokills] * 1
    #8043935 - 02/19/08 06:18 PM (15 years, 11 months ago)

I AM KICKING MYSELF FOR NOT HOLDING PBR TILL NOW!!!!

sigh..

I think i am a natural at picking losers...


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Update for February 16, 2008 - NLY, T, MO, MCD, STJ, SGP, CVS, FSLR [Re: Liquidkick] * 1
    #8044162 - 02/19/08 06:56 PM (15 years, 11 months ago)

With respect to bailing on PBR, that doesn't indicate your ability to pick losers. PBR is an excellent company, one of the few major oil companies in the world that can actually maintain and grow its proven oil reserves, and it should profit handsomely over the many years to come thanks to a huge oil reserve they've found off the coast of Brazil late last year. The problem therefore was not with your ability to pick a stock, but with your inability to cope with short-term (and what would have been unrealized) losses.

This is the most difficult part of investing in the stock market, for me, and I'm sure for many others. It is too easy to let our emotions get the best of us, and as a result be shaken out of quality stocks just because of short-term down trends in the market. Oddly enough as I can recognize this, but I still haven't perfected the ability to shield myself from this innate human tendancy. I am getting better though, which is precisely why short-term trading is for the birds.

If you get lucky and gain a few quick points in a new position, great - book some profits! But if your stock goes down, don't immediately bail thinking it's the end of the world. More likely (if you have done your research), this is an opportunity! The stock you liked before has been put on sale, and you should be thankful that you can average down, lowering your cost basis for the gains that are to come in the future. A long term outlook is integral to the strategy I've been developing over the past three years, just as it is incredibly important not to buy or sell all at once.

You should start a position with the belief that your stock will go down. It seems counterintuitive, but no one is perfect and no one can pick the absolute bottoms in a stock's price. Therefore, if you initiate your positions with the belief that your stock will drop below that price, it will force you to buy in small increments. Then if your stock does take a hit (provided it is not because of a fundamental business problem but because of general sector or market-wide sentiment), use that opportunity as a gift to add to your position, lowering your cost basis, and thereby increase your future gains.

It's tough, and it will take time to learn how to keep your emotional reactions in check - but I believe it is the only way that you're going to be able to consistently make good money in the stock market. Buying all at once and focusing on the short term is for the birds! You may get lucky sometimes, but you'll end up driving yourself crazy when the market isn't in a strong uptrend.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Update for February 19, 2008 - JNY, HCBK, SGP [Re: geokills] * 1
    #8044247 - 02/19/08 07:14 PM (15 years, 11 months ago)

Also as a quick update to the stocks I've been covering here:

Oil closed over $100 a barrel for the first time today - it's crossed over $100 twice prior, but failed to close the day above this psychological benchmark. As a result, this is spurring inflation fears and making the scenario for continued federal bank interest rate cuts increasingly uncertain. The CPI (consumer price index) will come out tomorrow, and if it comes in on the high end, this will further lower expectations for future rate cuts, which will hurt bank and retail stocks, just as they were hurt today.

On that note, I have sold off my remaining position in Schering-Plough (SGP) for a 19% gain. This isn't because I think SGP will be going down, but it's because with all the negative news that will accompany a potentially high CPI number tomorrow, in conjunction with oil's breakneck rally today, I want to build my cash position in order to take advantage of further declines in two names that will likely get hit (as follows). My current cash position is 30.1% of the portfolio.


  • Jones Apparel Group (JNY) - Currently trading at $14.37

    Which I recommended in my post on the 16th, closed today down almost 6%. I used today's sharp fall to make two small purchases at $14.64 and $14.25. If it nears $13.50, I will be buying even more. Remember that this company reported a quarter last week that was above expectations, gained a quick 7%, but then due to bad news from other retailers and overall negative retail market sentiment, has since dropped almost 18% from its high of around $17.50 after reporting its great quarter. This stock features a handsome 3.9% dividend yield at the current price of $14.37, and so I believe it is an attractive investment worth holding onto while the market works out its troubles over the next 8 - 12 months or so. I would not be surprised to see this stock make its way back up to $20 over that time period. Look for a drop tomorrow if the CPI number comes in hot, and use that as an opportunity to buy.


  • Hudson City Bank (HCBK) - Currently trading at $15.34

    I haven't recommended this name here I don't believe, as financials are generally a very tough place to be right now and I don't think most investors will want to chance it. However, Hudson City caters to well-off people in the New York area and offers very stringent lending practices. It makes most of its money through its deposit base and mortgages, which should throw up a red flag. But believe it or not, this company wrote-off next to no bad loans over the last quarter, they simply don't lend to at risk people! They carry a 2.3% dividend yield, and while it is true that they won't be in for much of a gain should the fed start worrying about inflation and thereby cease lowering rates, I don't feel that we're in for any rate increases in the near term and Hudson City's business is smart and strong enough that it is the only financial (with the possible exception of Goldman Sachs) that I would be comfortable owning in the current environment. I added to my position today when the stock fell some 2%, and if the stock falls below $15, I will be buying more.


Disclosure: I own (am long) JNY & HCBK


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InvisibleLiquidkick
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Re: Update for February 19, 2008 - JNY, HCBK, SGP [Re: geokills] * 1
    #8045280 - 02/19/08 10:33 PM (15 years, 11 months ago)

Yeah, definitely got scared. I did not stick to the game plan and bailed. It looks like every time i strayed from the plan i got nailed.

I hope that CPI number is super low. Then the rate cut will come.

I am more of a day trader by heart i think. The other day i realized most of my strategies are day trading strategies...

Totally understand the long term idea. Lesson learned on PBR.

Sigh.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Update for February 20, 2008 - JNY, T [Re: geokills] * 1
    #8046454 - 02/20/08 09:24 AM (15 years, 11 months ago)

Quick update:
  • Jones Apparel Group (JNY) - Currently Trading at $14.99

    After having picked up a couple hundred shares yesterday with the stock down as low as $14.25, I sold 200 shares this morning as the stock has rallied some 4.25% from yesterday's close. I am still maintaining a large position, but with the market as dicey as it is, it is important to book profits when you have them, slowly selling on the way up and slowly buying on the way down.


  • AT&T (T) - Currently Trading at $33.01

    News that the major telecom stocks (AT&T, Verizon, & Deutche Telecom) have introduced flat rate wireless calling plans has sparked fears of a price war. This has punished the stocks severely today, presenting what I believe to be a good buying opportunity. With both AT&T & Verizon's stock trading at their 52-week lows this morning, and yielding around 5%, either one should be in for a quick bounce. I have stepped in and added to my AT&T position. To note, Verizon may be the better long-term play here, as its FiOS television offering is receiving positive reviews (better than cable), and AT&T's U-verse TV system is rather lackluster and has had trouble rolling out as quickly and effectively as hoped. As I have already been involved with AT&T, I am averaging down right now to catch a quick bounce. Once the stock has traded back up toward $34 - $35, I will start cutting my position, and may look to swap into Verizon.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Update for February 20, 2008 - JNY, T [Re: geokills] * 1
    #8046756 - 02/20/08 11:04 AM (15 years, 11 months ago)

Well the bounce in AT&T was admittedly quicker than expected! In the last hour and a half of trading the stock is up $1.25 a share, or better than 3.7% from where I recommended you step in and buy in the above post. I will not be selling my shares quite yet however, as I believe that the stock will climb back up to $35 in the near future. With the nearly 5% dividend yield I locked in at the low share price, I feel that it is worth waiting around for.

This is another prime example of why it is so important to keep cash on the sidelines, to put to use when the market over-reacts. Capitalizing on another's knee-jerk panic reaction is where the biggest money is made! The two largest mistakes I made when I started investing was buying/selling a stock all in one chunk, and keeping myself fully invested with no cash on the side to take advantage of the inevitable drops in share price. When you keep all your money in play and have no cash left, you are essentially taking the very arrogant stance of saying that you know your stocks can not possibly go any lower than they are right now -- and that's just not being realistic or smart.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Update for February 20, 2008 - T, RIG, PBR [Re: geokills] * 1
    #8047257 - 02/20/08 01:12 PM (15 years, 11 months ago)

  • AT&T (T) - Currently Trading at $34.90

    I surely didn't expect this stock to recover this quickly, but with the stock trading some 5.7% higher than where I recommended it this morning, I will now sell the 100 shares I picked up this morning. I know I've stated that I'm not a short-term trader, but sometimes short-term opportunities do present themselves in the midst of your long-term thesis and it would be silly not to capitalize on them - especially when the market is as unpredictable as it has been over the past few months. I still hold a large position in AT&T for it's strong dividend yield and stable prospects in the wireless industiry. However, I am going to sell the 100 shares I purchased this morning in order to free up more cash in case future buying opportunities should present themselves. The fact that I own AT&T in both my discretionary as well as my retirement portfolio, means that I am heavily overweighted this stock. Though I believe AT&T will continue to rise over the long-term, this sale will help me build cash and lower my risk profile in case there really is a lasting price war between the wireless carriers.



  • Transocean (RIG) - Currently trading at $137.90

    Transocean reported a good quarter this morning, the stock up almost 6.4% on the heels of its positive report as well as oil's continued persistence above the $100 a barrel mark. I would like to build up a larger position in the oil sector, and though I am not taking any action at this time, I intend to add to my Transocean (RIG) position on any weakness, and perhaps start a new position in Petrobras (PBR) should it fall back below $110 a share. My eye towards the oil patch is another factor that is motivating me to build up my cash position from the short-term gains I've achieved in other stocks. The sales made today put my cash position at just over 38% of my portfolio.


Disclosure: I am presently long AAPL, HCBK, JNY, MCD, MO, NLY, PG, RIG, T, & STJ.


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InvisibleCowgold
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Re: Stock Picks for January 3rd, 2008 - STJ, SGP, CVS [Re: Cowgold] * 1
    #8086397 - 02/29/08 02:23 PM (15 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Cowgold said:
Quote:

Cowgold said:
I like your pics. Here's a few of my own.

I've been watching a few domestic energy companies specificly because the high fuel prices. $100 oil will continue to rise as the World's economy continues to grow. This higher fuel cost has benefited domestic energy companies heavily invested in existing plays that were previously too costly to produce. As the world's demand grows, we will depend more and more on domestic resources.

Here are some of the businesses that will benefit from such a scenario.

Sandridge Energy (SD) $33.99

Headquartered in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, SandRidge Energy, Inc. is a rapidly growing independent natural gas and oil company concentrating in exploration, development and production activities.

Our focus is to expand reserves and production in the West Texas Overthrust (WTO), an area located in Pecos and Terrell counties in West Texas. The WTO is a natural gas prone geological province encompassing 1.3 million acres which includes the Piñon Field prospect. SandRidge also has significant operated leasehold positions in the Cotton Valley Trend in East Texas, the Gulf Coast area, the Piceance Basin, as well as other non-core operating areas.

Chesapeake Energy (CHK) 40.72

Chesapeake Energy Corporation (Chesapeake) is an independent producer of natural gas in the United States, and owns interests in approximately 34,600 producing oil and natural gas wells that are producing approximately 1.7 billion cubic feet equivalent (bcfe) per day, 92% of which is natural gas. The Company?s operations are located in the Mid-Continent region, which includes Oklahoma, Arkansas, southwestern Kansas and the Texas Panhandle; the Forth Worth Basin in north-central Texas; the Appalachian Basin, principally in West Virginia, eastern Kentucky, eastern Ohio and southern New York; the Permian and Delaware Basins of West Texas and eastern New Mexico; the Ark-La-Tex area of East Texas and northern Louisiana; and the South Texas and Texas Gulf Coast regions. In July 2007, the Company announced the acquisition of Kerr-McGee Tower from Anadarko Petroleum Corporation and subsequent sale of tower to SandRidge Energy, Inc.


XTO Energy (XTO) 54.03

XTO Energy Inc. and its subsidiaries are engaged in the acquisition, development, exploitation and exploration of producing oil and gas properties, and in the production, processing, marketing and transportation of oil and natural gas. Its estimated proved reserves at December 31, 2006 were 6.94 Trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas, 53 million Barrels (Bbls) of natural gas liquids and 214.4 million Bbls of oil. During the year ended December 31, 2006, its average daily production was 1.186 Bcf of gas, 11,854 Bbls of natural gas liquids and 45,041 Bbls of oil. As of December 31, 2006, the Company owned interests in 20,743 gross (10,812.3 net) producing wells. In February 2006, the Company acquired proved and un-proved properties in East Texas and Mississippi from Total E&P USA, Inc. In June 2006, the Company acquired Peak Energy Resources, Inc., which operated gas-producing properties and owned un-proved properties in the Barnett Shale in the Fort Worth Basin




There was a slump in the energy market for a few weeks, but it's bounced back really strong this last week.

(quoted @ 11 A.M.) XTO - 55.70



(quoted @ 11 A.M.) CHK - 43.31



(quoted @ 11 A.M.) SD - 34.85




As of close 2/29/08


XTO - 61.71

CHK - 45.22

SD - 37.64
They're reporting their earnings on March 4th. Should be very interesting. It's been climbing like crazy and the 25MA crossed the 50MA yesterday. Up 4.56% just today.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for March 1, 2008 - MOS, DE, NLY, JNY [Re: Cowgold] * 1
    #8091080 - 03/01/08 06:43 PM (15 years, 10 months ago)

Congratulations Cowgold! Energy and agriculture are about the only two sectors that seem to be working right now. XTO Energy is definitely a great company, but their stock has gone parabolic lately, so if you're not already in, I would wait for the inevitable pullback before putting money to work in that name. Nevertheless, they are doing a great job at increasing their reserves and natural gas prices seem to be well positioned for a continued rise given crude oil's sustained high price and the fact that natural gas simply hasn't kept pace with crude.

Given the market's 2.5% slide yesterday, leaving the month of February with a loss, and the S&P 500 index down 9.4% so far this year, it looks like we're in the face of another volatile week in the market. The February jobs number which comes out on Friday will be important, as January's jobs number signaled contraction for the first time in four years, which has left people more convinced than ever that the economy has entered a recession. The Federal Reserve chairman testified to Congress last week, signaling that they plan to continue lowering rates in the near future but that some banks may still fail.

On the slip Friday, I decided to put some of my nearly 40% cash position to work by slowly picking away at two names in the agricultural complex.



  • Mosaic (MOS) - Currently Trading @ $111.30 / share

    On the heels of a 336% gain in 2007, one might think these guys are tapped out. And though this stock does carry a fairly high PE of 52, their earnings growth has been absolutely astounding and should be able to support it (874% over the trailing twelve months versus an industry average of around 250% over the same period). These guys produce chemicals used primarily for fertilizer in the agricultural industry (phosphate, potash, and nitrogen). The vast majority of their mines and plants are located in North America, though they sell much of their product internationally. Given that we are in the midst of a worldwide food shortage with little short term solution in sight, agricultural industries will continue to need increasingly more fertilizer to increase crop productivity as time progresses. This company should continue to be able to provide strong earnings growth over the coming many years, but realize that it has had a strong run. I would look for the stock to come down below $110 this coming week, and would advocate beginning to build a position at that point. I am looking to add to my small new position in this name next week should the stock fall closer to $100 a share.


  • John Deere & Co (DE) - Currently Trading @ $85.21 / share

    Another agricultural name, though this one having to do with the machinery and infrastructure necessary to farm. Deere may be the best manufacturer in the US, period, and being tied into the food industry (which is on fire) is just the icing on the cake. Up nearly 100% in 2007, these guys have beaten nearly every earnings estimate for the past 10 quarters (the past 6 quarters straight). There is some concern of sustainability, given the past history of agriculture's "boom and bust" cyclicality - they are not impervious to the volatile price of grain. Deere is a major beneficiary of the need to produce more food for the world population, and also getting helped by the attention to alternative energy, namely ethanol fuel which requires farming for corn in the US and sugar cane in Brazil. With people in the world population making more money, they want to improve their diets - often by eating more meat - and meat requires a whole lot of grain feed to produce, thereby fueling the need to produce ever larger crop output and keeping grain prices on the rise. They also have lower production costs than most other manufacturers. I like it right here, and will add to my position should the stock fall closer to $80.


  • Annaly Capital Management (NLY) - Currently Trading @ $20.69 / share

    I've been building this position for a couple of months now. The stock appears to have stabilized here between $20 - $21, but given it's exceptional yield of $1.36/share (currently 6.57%), and the fact that the federal reserve has committed to continue lowering interest rates, these guys are still positioned very well to take advantage of the lower interest rate environment. To get technical, this company is focused on generating net income for distribution to the stockholders from the spread between the interest income on their investment securities and the cost of borrowings to finance the acquisition of investment securities. That spread is improving for them at an exceptional pace, and the incredible dividend yield alone is attracting more investors as interest rates fall! Though I have a sizeable position in this name already, I am looking to add even more to it below $20.50 a share, before the federal reserve implements their next rate cut. To note, this stock behaved exceptionally well on Friday, down only half a percent while the aggregate market was down 2.5%. For the duration of the Fed's bias towards lowering interest rates, this is probably the single best levered stock to buy.


  • Jones Apparel Group (JNY) - Currently trading @ $14.11 / share

    This one took it on the chin at the end of the week, losing 8.6% of its value between Thursday morning and Friday evening. With its 56 cent per share dividend again closing in on a 4% annual yield, those with a stronger stomach and some appetite for risk may want to consider getting in here. I am glad that I sold some of this name as the stock reached $15, and will look to add those shares back to my position should the stock fall below $14. Retail is generally not a good place to be in a slowing economy, but a lot of retail stocks have been reporting so-so numbers on the earnings front and holding up remarkably well. This seems to signal that the big money is trying to set itself up for an early-cycle play as ultimately retail will rebound. Given the 4% yield, I am willing to spend some time waiting for this one.


This will probably be a tough week. Remember, if and when the panic reaches a feverish intensity will likely be the best time to put your money to work and step in to buy. It can be frightening, but the best investors often take a contrarian approach. With a high level of panic and an incredible amount of selling pressure, ultimately this means that the downside risk is being worked into the market and eventually the sellers will dry up and the bargain/value players will come back in. Be brave, be smart, and always remember to keep some cash on the sidelines to put to work if and when the market drops further!

Other stocks I would like to purchase on weakness: McDonalds (MCD) & Petrobras Brasileiro (PBR).


My Discretionary Portfolio as of 3/1/2008:

30% CASH
11% Altria (MO)
7.1% Annaly Capital Management (NLY)
7% AT&T (T)
7% McDonalds (MCD)
6.7% Jones Apparel Group (JNY)
6.6% Proctor & Gamble (PG)
6.4% Hudson City Bank Corp (HCBK)
6% Transocean (RIG)
4% Deere & Co (DE)
4% Mosaic (MOS)
3.9% Apple (APPL)


I am also long St. Jude Medical (STJ) in my Retirement Portfolio


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Offlinephi1618
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Good dividend stock - AYR; Great value for growth - VDSI; comment on FSLR and similar [Re: geokills] * 1
    #8092843 - 03/02/08 07:21 AM (15 years, 10 months ago)

A good dividend/value stock right now is AYR Aircastle.
This is an airplane leasing company. They buy mainly used airplanes and lease them to airlines all around the world. The initial purchases of airplanes are made with cash/equity, and they then sell asset backed securities for portfolios of their owned planes.
Their combination of sophisticated financing and airline contacts is a strong competitive advantage (in a competitive industry).
They are profitable (P/E around 10-11) and earnings are growing quickly (net income 51 mil. in 2006, 127 mil. 2007).
Best of all, they finance deals with equity as needed and return earned capital to their investors through dividends - current yield based on the most recent regular dividend is around 14%!
They missed analysts earnings last quarter, and the stock is pretty beaten down as a result. The current price (about $20/share) is a good price for a good stock.

Vasco data security international (VDSI) is a leader among specialized data-security shops. Good security is the key to e-comerce and e-finance, and these people get the big contracts. Recent earnings were a big miss - according to management, this is a result of three major contracts moved to 2008. With a smallish company dependent on large contracts from industry giants, lumpy revenues are to be expected, and as long as management is shooting straight, a few delayed contracts are no big deal. Also, the current financial disaster will likely have some impact on this years earnings, as the main clients are large financial firms, which will all be looking to cut costs where possible.
These caveats out of the way, the current price is almost too good. Return on equity has averaged 30%+, and earnings growth is around 50%/year. The internet is not going away, and will become increasingly fundamental to all financial transactions - and the need for data security will not go away, either. This is a well run company with excellent prospects for growth, and is currently on sale.

I've made $$$$ shorting FSLR, and if it recovers significantly any time soon, I'll buy deep out of the money puts with distant strikes. The reason I'd do this is that they need huge growth to justify a 100+ P/E, so any hint of a recession will hurt them and a single quarter of missed earnings will absolutely kill the stock - it's a great company, but priced to perfection.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for March 5, 2008 - NLY, JNY [Re: geokills] * 1
    #8110326 - 03/06/08 09:59 AM (15 years, 10 months ago)

Well, I got absolutely crushed this morning.  :sad:

  • Annaly Capital Management (NLY) - Currently Trading at $15.40

    No direct news out of Annaly this morning, but there was news on a similar company - Carlyle Capital.  Carlyle has failed to meet margin calls for their investments in mortgage-backed securities.  Annaly is also a highly leveraged company, using short-term loans to finance their investing.  Though the near-term interest rate cuts will still help this stock, and it seems Annaly has been able to sift through all the securities that banks have been unloading in a hurry, to pick out only the cream of the crop... lenders will likely require more capital for Annaly's own margin investments as a result of Carlyle's trouble.  This in turn will probably cause Annaly to issue more stock to raise capital, thereby diluting the stake of current shareholders.

    With that, the stock traded down some 25% this morning, and is currently off 20%.  I have not taken any action at this point and am still holding 300 shares in the company.  I expect that the stock will recover somewhat, and I will probably unload some of my position on any strength.  It kills me to sell this one at a loss, but the fact that Annaly may offer new shares to raise capital and thereby dilute the current shareholder value, will be a strong headwind on this issue.


  • Jones Apparel Group (JNY) - Currently Trading at $13.06

    This clothing retailer has also been getting crushed, down 6% on the day, on top of losses earlier in the week.  I knew there was going to be risk in this sector - obviously retail and finance have been doing terribly.  Nevertheless, the tide does have to eventually change direction, but it looks like I was way too early to the party here.  I still like this stock for it's better than 4% yield, and it's improving operations as noted in their last quarterly report.  Even so, my appetite for risk is fading fast in the wake of the heavy losses incurred today and the general trend of a falling market.


I am not taking any action with regard to these two names today, though my instinct is telling me that the time draws near to add to my position in JNY.  All the same, I do not believe it would be wise to increase my exposure to risky sectors such as retail and finance at this time.  A little shaken by the bad day, I'm going to take a cautious approach and wait to see where things go from here.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for March 5, 2008 - NLY, JNY [Re: geokills] * 1
    #8110460 - 03/06/08 10:54 AM (15 years, 10 months ago)

I couldn't take the pain, currently at $16.45 - I have unloaded my position in Annaly Capital Management.

Even though their company hasn't done anything wrong yet, the collateral damage from the problems in the aggregate government-backed mortgage market are likely to keep negative pressure on this name. Sometimes it's just better to cut your losses and redistribute that capital to something with a better outlook (or buy back the same stock at a lower price). If Annaly falls below $14, I will be buying, but this market is just so tough right now, and I'd rather build up cash on hand for what looks to be the path of least resistance, down.


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InvisibleBaeosistine
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Re: Stock Update for March 5, 2008 - NLY, JNY [Re: geokills] * 1
    #8110507 - 03/06/08 11:09 AM (15 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

geokills said:
I couldn't take the pain, currently at $16.45 - I have unloaded my position in Annaly Capital Management.

Even though their company hasn't done anything wrong yet, the collateral damage from the problems in the aggregate government-backed mortgage market are likely to keep negative pressure on this name. Sometimes it's just better to cut your losses and redistribute that capital to something with a better outlook (or buy back the same stock at a lower price). If Annaly falls below $14, I will be buying, but this market is just so tough right now, and I'd rather build up cash on hand for what looks to be the path of least resistance, down.





I think you're crazy in the current climate to hold any stock in companies dealing in financial instruments. Unless you're a day trader, going purely technical or using CFDs I would avoid like the plague as there is too much risk and uncertainty.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for March 5, 2008 - NLY, JNY [Re: Baeosistine] * 1
    #8110569 - 03/06/08 11:26 AM (15 years, 10 months ago)

I never said I wasn't crazy! :crazy2:


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