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fireworks_god
Sexy.Butt.McDanger



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The Writing Is On The Wall (Obama)
#8045005 - 02/19/08 09:37 PM (15 years, 11 months ago) |
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Well, as Obama has won Wisconsin and is set to take Hawaii, it seems pretty clear that, as she was not able to turn the tide from his huge consecutive winning streak before Texas and Ohio, she will not have sufficent footing to hold Obama back from taking enough of her votes to win. I hold no certainty regarding who will win both states, but I think that, even if she simply wins one, it will sway the superdelegates to Obama, as the party is ready to start running a national campaign and are concerned about staying unified. It will be demonstrated that Obama simply is more electable than her as a Democrat (let alone the fact that it seems clear that he is more capable of winning agansit McCain). Hillary's acts of desperation, especially regarding negative attacks on Obama, are only hurting her. She might not be very behind at all, but the fact that Obama is leading her when she is a textbook example of a strong candidate and he's pretty damned new at it all speaks a lot more for him than the fact that she is close behind does for her.
I watched my first speech by Obama tonight after checking out Wisconsin's results, one he held in Houston tonight I believe, and I wasn't swept up in emotion or religious feeling, but it seemed altogether clear why he has this effect. The American people have had no sense of direction or greater purpose, and it seems clear that Obama's message, as well as his political agenda, resonates quite well with them, and the fact that he is so effective in speaking to them magnifies it twenty-fold.
Presuming that Obama does get the nod and is running agansit McCain (they are already calling each other out, although I suspect that McCain might have intent to weaken him for Hillary as well), it seems pretty evident that Obama will sweep the nation. Obama's stance on Iraq alone (which is exactly the same as Ron Paul's, by the way), that it is costing us far too much money that needs to be invested into bettering this country, that it has weakened our troops and made them vulnerable, and that it is a distraction and a hinderance from our fight agansit terrorists, adding that it has created anti-American sentiment, although McCain probably has the best take possible to counter it. Of course, McCain will play up that if we left now, the country would collapse, but I think that American self-interest in using that money for themselves will win the day. Also, I don't buy the view that Obama stance agansit the war from the beginning was convienent, since its far more risky to take such a stance in the midst of a campaign than it is for someone like Hillary to vote for it and then later blame it on being misled.
Anyways, McCain represents a different time, and he's not poised as the leader for America's future. The fact that he swung from wanting out of the war and towards supporting Bush's tax cuts for the wealthy makes it a lot more difficult for him than it would have been. I saw a comment on an article I just saw that I thought I would include because it has a good perspective on the Obama vs. McCain thoughts...
Quote:
Obama vs. McCain will be Clinton vs. Bush Senior all over again. Youth, energy and superb political instincts against a worn out representative of an older generation whose time has passed but can't recognize it. Actually it's even better than 1992 for the Democrats, because there is such anger at the Bush Administration right now, which wasn't there in 1992.
But, mostly, I think that this Houston speech contained within it a good summary as to why Obama will win. The American people are deeply dissatisfied with Washington and the state of affairs it has created, "The last thing we need is to have the same old folks doing the same old things, making the same mistakes over and over again,". He's pretty strategically placed to overcome any attacks on his inexperience, with as much resentment as there is for the status quo. For all his virtues to the contrary, McCain is too tied to this, he even looks the part.
Obama is very good at giving the American people the sense that they can be a part of American history by standing for him, explaining why he personally speaks so much about hope, referring to how those in Washington speak agansit that, and then asserting how all of the defining moments of our nation, from its inception as a revolution to the pioneers to the greatest generation pulling itself out of the Great Depression and taking down Hitler and fascism to the civil rights movement, presenting to them that it's their moment to turn this into another one of those moments, and I think the fact that he is a different color symbolizes this as well. Pretty damned effective, one would think, pretty evidenced as well since he's taking down the Clinton machine and everything it represents as a rookie out of nowhere.
In summation, once again, the best thing about him is that his plans and ideas are pretty damned sensible and clever. It'd be nice to have a President that will act as a leader to move the country forward after, well, we all know everything that was wrong with Bush's presidency.
I'd hate to call something before it is done ( ) and I acknowledge the possibility that it might not all go down like this, but that's my perspective at this point, and I'm welcoming everyone to give us your take.
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If I should die this very moment I wouldn't fear For I've never known completeness Like being here Wrapped in the warmth of you Loving every breath of you
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Coaster
Baʿal



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Re: The Writing Is On The Wall (Obama) [Re: fireworks_god]
#8045019 - 02/19/08 09:39 PM (15 years, 11 months ago) |
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obama won in my eyes
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fireworks_god
Sexy.Butt.McDanger



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Re: The Writing Is On The Wall (Obama) [Re: Coaster]
#8045091 - 02/19/08 09:55 PM (15 years, 11 months ago) |
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Here's a good analysis of the Wisconsin win and how the remaining race pretty much sits by Tim Russert:
She has to win, according to this, 58% of the remaining delegates in order to win. She has to win 65% of states like Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, basically, and I think the margins are simply too thin for her to accomplish this. Essentially, barring some kind of unexpected occurence, it won't even go to the superdelegates to decide.
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If I should die this very moment I wouldn't fear For I've never known completeness Like being here Wrapped in the warmth of you Loving every breath of you
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fireworks_god
Sexy.Butt.McDanger



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Re: The Writing Is On The Wall (Obama) [Re: fireworks_god]
#8050322 - 02/21/08 01:12 AM (15 years, 11 months ago) |
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I was reading an article on the campaign and I came across this statement:
Quote:
Obama campaign manager David Plouffe told reporters during a Wednesday conference call that for Clinton to catch up, she would have to win Ohio and Texas by 30-point margins, and follow that with a 40-point rout in Pennsylvania on April 22. "This is a wide, wide lead right now," he said. "The Clinton campaign keeps saying the race is essentially tied. That's just lunacy."
No chance in hell of that!
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If I should die this very moment I wouldn't fear For I've never known completeness Like being here Wrapped in the warmth of you Loving every breath of you
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blackegg
...has left the building.



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Re: The Writing Is On The Wall (Obama) [Re: fireworks_god]
#8050398 - 02/21/08 02:12 AM (15 years, 11 months ago) |
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I can only hope.
McCain really scares me.
>>POOF<<
But McCain scares me on a whole different level.
-------------------- 'Pain is meant to wake us up. People try to hide their pain. But they're wrong. Pain is something to carry, like a radio. You feel your strength in the experience of pain. It's all in how you carry it. That's what matters. Pain is a feeling. Your feelings are a part of you. Your own reality. If you feel ashamed of them, and hide them, you're letting society destroy your reality. You should stand up for your right to feel your pain and leave the Shroomery.' ~ Jim Morrison
Edited by blackegg (02/21/08 06:37 AM)
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fireworks_god
Sexy.Butt.McDanger



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Re: The Writing Is On The Wall (Obama) [Re: blackegg]
#8050473 - 02/21/08 03:31 AM (15 years, 11 months ago) |
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Why are you turning my thread into some kind of personalism war with Lonestar? I don't exactly appreciate it.
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If I should die this very moment I wouldn't fear For I've never known completeness Like being here Wrapped in the warmth of you Loving every breath of you
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blackegg
...has left the building.



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Re: The Writing Is On The Wall (Obama) [Re: fireworks_god]
#8050608 - 02/21/08 06:33 AM (15 years, 11 months ago) |
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-------------------- 'Pain is meant to wake us up. People try to hide their pain. But they're wrong. Pain is something to carry, like a radio. You feel your strength in the experience of pain. It's all in how you carry it. That's what matters. Pain is a feeling. Your feelings are a part of you. Your own reality. If you feel ashamed of them, and hide them, you're letting society destroy your reality. You should stand up for your right to feel your pain and leave the Shroomery.' ~ Jim Morrison
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blackegg
...has left the building.



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Re: The Writing Is On The Wall (Obama) [Re: blackegg]
#8050695 - 02/21/08 07:30 AM (15 years, 11 months ago) |
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I Lonestar. and zappa. and Phred. I mean they're completely delusional but...
Anyway, I just wanted to say: I shouldn't have erased what i said before, which was... that Lonestar gets creeped out by Obama's forced intimacy because his parents didn't hug him enough.
Did I trample some delicate internet etiquette? ...alas... I'm sure poor Lonestar will pull through.
 As for your thread... Get over it.
Love, Blackegg
-------------------- 'Pain is meant to wake us up. People try to hide their pain. But they're wrong. Pain is something to carry, like a radio. You feel your strength in the experience of pain. It's all in how you carry it. That's what matters. Pain is a feeling. Your feelings are a part of you. Your own reality. If you feel ashamed of them, and hide them, you're letting society destroy your reality. You should stand up for your right to feel your pain and leave the Shroomery.' ~ Jim Morrison
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bradmassive
KingOfTheHill


Registered: 11/03/07
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Re: The Writing Is On The Wall (Obama) [Re: fireworks_god]
#8050703 - 02/21/08 07:36 AM (15 years, 11 months ago) |
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Quote:
fireworks_god said: Why are you turning my thread into some kind of personalism war with Lonestar? I don't exactly appreciate it.
Your thread belongs to the community. Your life belongs to the community. The GLOBAL community!
-------------------- "In the beginning, I had no name. i was a shape, a snarling shadow of the Old World which slipped into this existence" - Steven Erikson "Our progress as a species rests squarely on the shoulders of that tenth person. The nine are satisfied with things they are told are valuable. Person 10 determines for himself what has value." - My good friend Za -
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fireworks_god
Sexy.Butt.McDanger



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Re: The Writing Is On The Wall (Obama) [Re: blackegg]
#8051501 - 02/21/08 11:39 AM (15 years, 11 months ago) |
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Quote:
blackegg said: Did I trample some delicate internet etiquette? ...alas... I'm sure poor Lonestar will pull through.
 As for your thread... Get over it.
Hopefully you didn't take me too seriously, because I wasn't very. I'm just eager to discuss all things Obama vs. Clinton that is going down, because its very dramatic and exciting, and blackegg vs. Lonestar is pretty boring.
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If I should die this very moment I wouldn't fear For I've never known completeness Like being here Wrapped in the warmth of you Loving every breath of you
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zorbman
blarrr


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Re: The Writing Is On The Wall (Obama) [Re: fireworks_god]
#8051920 - 02/21/08 01:38 PM (15 years, 11 months ago) |
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I haven't been following the delegate count very closely but the last I heard they were virtually tied in the delegate count. So why does she now have to win by such large margins? Is Obama highly favored in the remaining states?
-------------------- “The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.” -- Rudiger Dornbusch
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lonestar2004
Live to party,work to affordit.


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Re: The Writing Is On The Wall (Obama) [Re: zorbman]
#8051928 - 02/21/08 01:41 PM (15 years, 11 months ago) |
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Clinton faces daunting delegate deficit
Democratic Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton must win 57 percent of the remaining primary and caucus delegates to erase Barack Obama's lead, a daunting task requiring landslide-sized victories by a struggling presidential candidate.
Obama's victories in Wisconsin and Hawaii on Tuesday — his ninth and 10th in a row — left him with 1,178 pledged delegates won in primaries and caucuses in The Associated Press' count. Clinton has 1,024.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080221/ap_on_el_pr/clinton_delegate_deficit
-------------------- America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure" We have "reckless fiscal policies" America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better Barack Obama
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zorbman
blarrr


Registered: 06/04/04
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Re: The Writing Is On The Wall (Obama) [Re: lonestar2004]
#8051940 - 02/21/08 01:45 PM (15 years, 11 months ago) |
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Ok, gotcha. The count has really changed since I last heard hard numbers. Obama has an almost 20% lead in delegates at this point. Not looking too good for the Hillster.
-------------------- “The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.” -- Rudiger Dornbusch
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bradmassive
KingOfTheHill


Registered: 11/03/07
Posts: 866
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Re: The Writing Is On The Wall (Obama) [Re: zorbman]
#8051992 - 02/21/08 01:54 PM (15 years, 11 months ago) |
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Quote:
zorbman said: Ok, gotcha. The count has really changed since I last heard hard numbers. Obama has an almost 20% lead in delegates at this point. Not looking too good for the Hillster.
Good, the bitch deserves nothing.
-------------------- "In the beginning, I had no name. i was a shape, a snarling shadow of the Old World which slipped into this existence" - Steven Erikson "Our progress as a species rests squarely on the shoulders of that tenth person. The nine are satisfied with things they are told are valuable. Person 10 determines for himself what has value." - My good friend Za -
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fireworks_god
Sexy.Butt.McDanger



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Re: The Writing Is On The Wall (Obama) [Re: bradmassive]
#8055265 - 02/22/08 05:45 AM (15 years, 11 months ago) |
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Well, I watched the debate from last night when it was going down, and I have to say that it went extremely well for Obama. It was pretty evident that Hillary was very restricted in how she could approach the debate, and it prevented her from any real opportunity to utilize the debate to cut Obama down to size. She has no real opportunity at all now to be able to prevent Obama from winning Texas.
Most of Obama's responses seemed more effective than her's, and I thought that the last emotional appeal she made at the end was not going to have much effect in increasing her support. In fact, I think that, in generating the emotional state to make that appeal more authentic, she brought out more of her actual emotional state in the next response, which seemed almost like a concession that she knew it was almost over for her campaign, and she was trying to feel reassured that she would be fine, and that she would have the support of a lot of family and friends.
It almost appeared more as though the debate was Hillary trying to influence Obama to carry with him more of her own policy, because she wants to see her agendas pushed through even if she is not the one to do it. I think its pretty clear that he won't budge on his health care stance, at least not until a lot of it has started to be implemented, because he has an excellent point - you have to keep the process more open to actually be capable of building a working majority to take down the influence of the special interests that would seek to stand in the way of reform.
Hillary has been saying that she would be ready from day one to be commander-in-chief, and Obama demonstrated quite, quite effectively last night how he is actually more qualified, because has a demonstrated record of sound judgement in the most crucial foreign policy issues that have arisen in the past eight years, which have been directly responsible for a lot of the problems we face today. This stood up far more than her unsubstansive appeal that she has went on general diplomatic missions to a lot of countries, not actually demonstrating that she could be capable from day one (more of an appeal to authority than anything). Obama's response had objective substance to it, and not only that, but most Americans see Iraq the same way and want to bring our troops home.
Also, he then stood up and used the debate as a platform to attack McCain on the War in Iraq. He demonstrated in doing so the fact that he's already positioned to be the candidate that will take on McCain, and not only that, he demonstrated an approach to taking on McCain on the War In Iraq that will not be able to be countered very well by McCain. The surge might have worked as a tactical manuever, but the real issue is our presence in the first place. Obama says that America is ready to use those billions of dollars every month to invest into the American economy and American infastructure and working to alleviate American social problems. McCain's justification for suggesting that we remain in Iraq for 100 years by appealing to the countless countries we have been in for 50 or more years as well isn't good enough when Obama is demonstrating quite well that this prolonged presence is why America cannot put money into itself, from investing in education to positioning America at the forefront and innovative world leader of a new green marketplace to laying broadband lines so that even rural areas have high-speed Internet access.
That's investing in tomorrow. McCain is just not for these times. Also, they certainly did bash the Bush administration repeatedly. Its like the Bush administration was getting whipped in the back again and again, and even though some might see it as a political manuever, I think it is happening because it needs to happen. The Bush Administration needs to be publically condemned and ridiculued and denounced. They need to run on reversing the damage the Bush administration has created on America.
I gained a little more of a sense of respect for Hillary when she said that the world will all breathe a sigh of relief when Bush is out of office.
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If I should die this very moment I wouldn't fear For I've never known completeness Like being here Wrapped in the warmth of you Loving every breath of you
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Seuss
Error: divide byzero



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Re: The Writing Is On The Wall (Obama) [Re: fireworks_god]
#8055312 - 02/22/08 06:37 AM (15 years, 11 months ago) |
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> They need to run on reversing the damage the Bush administration has created on America.
... as opposed to running on the damage that they are going to create on America?
-------------------- Just another spore in the wind.
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blackegg
...has left the building.



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Re: The Writing Is On The Wall (Obama) [Re: fireworks_god]
#8055336 - 02/22/08 06:57 AM (15 years, 11 months ago) |
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Quote:
Fireworks_God said: She has no real opportunity at all now to be able to prevent Obama from winning Texas.
You seem much more assured than I am at this point.
Texas is a huge (mostly rural) state and Austin is a small, fairly liberal leaning town so the crowd response in this debate weren't representative of the state as a whole and the polls are pretty dead even. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_Democratic_primary%2C_2008#Polls
Quote:
Fireworks_God said: I gained a little more of a sense of respect for Hillary when she said that the world will all breathe a sigh of relief when Bush is out of office.
Yeah, after seeing debates like these I breathe a sigh of relief because *all three* candidates seem like they'd be better for us than what we have now.
-------------------- 'Pain is meant to wake us up. People try to hide their pain. But they're wrong. Pain is something to carry, like a radio. You feel your strength in the experience of pain. It's all in how you carry it. That's what matters. Pain is a feeling. Your feelings are a part of you. Your own reality. If you feel ashamed of them, and hide them, you're letting society destroy your reality. You should stand up for your right to feel your pain and leave the Shroomery.' ~ Jim Morrison
Edited by blackegg (02/22/08 06:58 AM)
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fireworks_god
Sexy.Butt.McDanger



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Re: The Writing Is On The Wall (Obama) [Re: Seuss]
#8055438 - 02/22/08 08:08 AM (15 years, 11 months ago) |
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Quote:
Seuss said: > They need to run on reversing the damage the Bush administration has created on America.
... as opposed to running on the damage that they are going to create on America?
Well, they are running on the solutions that they propose and the initiatives they wish to enact and the direction they want to take this country in and the higher purpose they want to give the country.
Obama is much more in tune with America, which is why he has so much energy and so much momentum and dedicated support, and his plan for the future much more effective in producing desired change.
I am simply saying, the Bush administration resulted from a huge neglect of oversight and while it is our responsibility to stay informed, be involved, and ensure our representatives in Congress practice healthy oversight of the executive branch and do not give the executive carte blanche to take our country into rocky shores, they are still the ones who took advantage of their power to do real harm to this country by not taking action that represented the interests of the country as a whole, instead of simply creating profit for special interests that they share ties with, and this needs to be emphasized for what it is in prominent, important ways, as in a crucial debate in a very dramatic race to be the 44th President of the United States, so that history doesn't forget what the American people thought about what was occuring.
I don't want to see a politically-influenced history that trys to paint George W. Bush as another Harry Truman, something some media has already been trying to accomplish by talking about the possibility. I want him remembered as being as bad as Ullysus S. Grant for incompetance, lack of oversight, and the subsequential corruption and government failure.
They are being so condemning because they are speaking more as the voice of the American people, and its capitalizing on the dissatisfaction and anger with the Bush administration, which represents a government in which a concerned people have no means to use their government to represent their will. This is reflected in the fact that the Democratic-controlled Congress has had a lower approval rating than Bush has. The American people want their government to be what they want it to be, and someone like Obama has had the most poise to be the individual who will lead the country into the future. America is the country that is most suited for this because of the Constitution. The candidate who will most inspire the American people and give them prosperity and wealth will be the most successful, because if the American people are poor, the economy will collapse. If you invest in the American people, the economy booms. America can continue to boom and be a prominent world leader, in positive, effective ways that improves the quality of life for the entire planet. I think that Obama is very much the conduit for this necessary change. Everything that has happened in this campaign and the fact that he is about ready to be the Democratic nominee confirms this.
In fact, that brings me to remember the one thing I neglected to post in my analysis of the debate. I think Obama was very successful in dispelling the sense that is proposed by Hillary and some pundits is that he has no substance, that he's simply just bringing his voters to dream (Hillary has been telling voters to "get real" ). The implication, as he said, is that everyone who voted for him, by far the biggest group of voters compared to any other candidate, the numerous amount of prominent politicians and party leaders, to other nationally known celebrities, to something like nearly all major Texas newspapers having endorsed him, was simply being delusional, that Obama had somehow "duped" them. 
If he didn't have strength of character, sound judgement, a keen perspective, a sense of the state of being of this country, and a practical approach towards developing a brighter future for everyone, he wouldn't have had the success he has found.
Which is interesting, because Hillary touts her experience and her strong sense of what the issues are and her detailed, comprehensive plans to fix them, and she readily admits that most of Obama's policies are pratically the same as her's. They started off by saying how they are both very much representing the Democratic Party's plans and direction, so, essentially... she acknowledges that he pretty much has everything she has as far as plans, but that he also has more capability of uniting the American people, even if it is just with words (words are powerful).... ultimately expressing to everyone watching that he is the better candidate. Then she ends by saying that, whatever happens, she knows that there will be the support of friends and family, while she's in an emotional state. She also said that there would be a united Democratic party and that it wasn't going to be drawn out and etc. I think tonight pretty much expressed that Obama has the nomination.
Anyways, could you provide your view as to why you view the candidacy of someone like Obama as potentially serving to be detrimental to the future of America?
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If I should die this very moment I wouldn't fear For I've never known completeness Like being here Wrapped in the warmth of you Loving every breath of you
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