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johnm214



Registered: 05/31/07
Posts: 17,582
Loc: Americas
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What's w/ the GIANT swings in Repub. nomination preference polls in the last year?
#7962176 - 01/31/08 09:20 PM (16 years, 1 day ago) |
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Giuliani was around 30-40% this time last year, now he's at around 13% Huckabee was around 1% now he's around 20
Is it just me, or does this demonstrate incredible hubris and ignorance?
Did those folks who picked Giuliani around a year ago at 30% really changed in what they want from a candidate that much? How has he changed in anything he stands for? What's different that made almost 2 out of 3 supporters bail?
Did Huckabee suddenly develop into another person, a great candidate? Why has his support grown over an order of magnitude in percentage terms?
Both these guys were the same people, with the same history, and same platform a year ago. That voters are SO different now (Huckabee growing by leaps and bounds, Giuliani shriveling) only leads me to believe those in the last year choose a candidate w/ no fucking idea who was running- rather than reporting they weren't sure who they supported yet.
When they choose giuliani they didn't know what romney or huckabee were for, yet they choose him anyways, this is plain by the rapid growth of these two candidates. Likely then, they didn't even know shit about Giuliani, and picked him cuz they knew who he was.
Is it just me, or is this the epitome of group-think ignorance? To pick someone cuz you know who they are? Why don't these people answer I don't know (which they had the option of).
Do people get a thrill out of telling the pollster they are so informed they can pick a candidate over a year before the election? Do they feel bad saying they don't know- does this make them seem stupid? Why do they insist on picking a candidate when they don't know who the fuck he is or who the competition is?
If people feel confident and informed enough to choose a candidate they clearly have no concept of, and no idea of his competition, this doesn't inspire faith in the electorate.
I was thinking about this and it really flabbergasted me.
are people really this stupid/ crass? Is a familiar name really enough to influence that many people to vote for you? This has to be even worse at the local level...
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Minstrel
Man of Science


Registered: 03/15/05
Posts: 1,974
Loc: Hogtown
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Re: What's w/ the GIANT swings in Repub. nomination preference polls in the last year? [Re: johnm214]
#7962261 - 01/31/08 09:35 PM (16 years, 1 day ago) |
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I never believed Guiliani was never that popular, and that the lie of his support would be well recognized in the race.
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zorbman
blarrr



Registered: 06/04/04
Posts: 5,952
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Re: What's w/ the GIANT swings in Repub. nomination preference polls in the last year? [Re: johnm214]
#7962362 - 01/31/08 09:53 PM (16 years, 1 day ago) |
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What has happened is what people like myself predicted would happen if Bush-chimp was re-elected. The party has fragmented back into its basic constituents with champions of each stepping forward only to be struck down in turn.
There is no one to unite the disparate elements of the party 'ala Reagan since there is no common threat to the country such as the Soviet Union. This gives lie to the idea that radical islam is a huge threat, otherwise the party would unite under that banner.
It is an implicit recognition that the so-called "War on Terror" is over-hyped nonsense and that while terrorism is A threat it is not THE threat.
Each candidate represents only a slice of the republican electorate therefore their support is soft like butter and likely to melt away like the Rudy campaign..
-------------------- “The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.” -- Rudiger Dornbusch
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Minstrel
Man of Science


Registered: 03/15/05
Posts: 1,974
Loc: Hogtown
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Re: What's w/ the GIANT swings in Repub. nomination preference polls in the last year? [Re: zorbman]
#7962412 - 01/31/08 10:01 PM (16 years, 1 day ago) |
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Quote:
zorbman said: What has happened is what people like myself predicted would happen if Bush-chimp was re-elected. The party has fragmented back into its basic constituents with champions of each stepping forward only to be struck down in turn.
There is no one to unite the disparate elements of the party 'ala Reagan since there is no common threat to the country such as the Soviet Union. This gives lie to the idea that radical islam is a huge threat, otherwise the party would unite under that banner.
It is an implicit recognition that the so-called "War on Terror" is over-hyped nonsense and that while terrorism is A threat it is not THE threat.
Each candidate represents only a slice of the republican electorate therefore their support is soft like butter and likely to melt away like the Rudy campaign..
Zorb, you are exactly right. You guys need more terrorism. Get that republican party back in.
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johnm214



Registered: 05/31/07
Posts: 17,582
Loc: Americas
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Re: What's w/ the GIANT swings in Repub. nomination preference polls in the last year? [Re: Minstrel]
#7962987 - 02/01/08 12:21 AM (16 years, 1 day ago) |
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forgot to add, I'm taking my numbers from: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_republican_primary-193.html
minstreal; what do you mean he wasn't that popular? What do you attribute those numbers to then? And the same polling now shows dramatic decreases, well past the margins of error.
zorb; I get what you're saying w/ all these folks running, and several front runners, but so what?
I'm saying that people actually choose a candidate they favored a year ago, rather than choosing "no prefrence" and coninuing w/ the rest of the survey, and now most of the giuliani supporters have left him; and huckabee has gained around 10X (at least) the support.
So why the dramatic change? People are either uneducated or very fickle. Anyone doing research can tell who they would favor before the debates, and anyone who hasn't shouldn't have an opinion anyways- that these people still choose a poll option makes me think they're idiots pushing the pretty looking button.
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zorbman
blarrr



Registered: 06/04/04
Posts: 5,952
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Re: What's w/ the GIANT swings in Repub. nomination preference polls in the last year? [Re: johnm214]
#7963131 - 02/01/08 01:03 AM (16 years, 1 day ago) |
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Quote:
zorb; I get what you're saying w/ all these folks running, and several front runners, but so what?
I'm saying that people actually choose a candidate they favored a year ago, rather than choosing "no prefrence" and coninuing w/ the rest of the survey, and now most of the giuliani supporters have left him; and huckabee has gained around 10X (at least) the support
They put down a marker at one time for a candidate- that total says nothing whatsoever about the depth of support for that candidate.
The support was soft because each candidate only represented a fragment of the coalition Reagan brought together.
-------------------- “The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.” -- Rudiger Dornbusch
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Syle
Kenai Sigh


Registered: 10/16/05
Posts: 6,678
Loc: WA
Last seen: 10 months, 26 days
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Re: What's w/ the GIANT swings in Repub. nomination preference polls in the last year? [Re: johnm214]
#7963854 - 02/01/08 08:31 AM (16 years, 18 hours ago) |
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Quote:
johnm214 said: Giuliani was around 30-40% this time last year, now he's at around 13% Huckabee was around 1% now he's around 20
Is it just me, or does this demonstrate incredible hubris and ignorance?
Did those folks who picked Giuliani around a year ago at 30% really changed in what they want from a candidate that much? How has he changed in anything he stands for? What's different that made almost 2 out of 3 supporters bail?
Did Huckabee suddenly develop into another person, a great candidate? Why has his support grown over an order of magnitude in percentage terms?
Both these guys were the same people, with the same history, and same platform a year ago. That voters are SO different now (Huckabee growing by leaps and bounds, Giuliani shriveling) only leads me to believe those in the last year choose a candidate w/ no fucking idea who was running- rather than reporting they weren't sure who they supported yet.
When they choose giuliani they didn't know what romney or huckabee were for, yet they choose him anyways, this is plain by the rapid growth of these two candidates. Likely then, they didn't even know shit about Giuliani, and picked him cuz they knew who he was.
Is it just me, or is this the epitome of group-think ignorance? To pick someone cuz you know who they are? Why don't these people answer I don't know (which they had the option of).
Do people get a thrill out of telling the pollster they are so informed they can pick a candidate over a year before the election? Do they feel bad saying they don't know- does this make them seem stupid? Why do they insist on picking a candidate when they don't know who the fuck he is or who the competition is?
If people feel confident and informed enough to choose a candidate they clearly have no concept of, and no idea of his competition, this doesn't inspire faith in the electorate.
I was thinking about this and it really flabbergasted me.
are people really this stupid/ crass? Is a familiar name really enough to influence that many people to vote for you? This has to be even worse at the local level...
just to use huck and rudy as examples, since you gave them first, i think it's just because A) huck became better known in the public eye, hence his #s went up and B) rudy went down because he sunk back from the public eye, hence his #s went down. it seems pretty obvious to me? i mean, Rudy didn't do jack shit besides the debates until Florida.
-------------------- https://kenaisigh.bandcamp.com/ <- Just completed the 2021 RPM challenge for February - An EP in one month (5 songs or 20 minutes). Check it out!
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zorbman
blarrr



Registered: 06/04/04
Posts: 5,952
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Re: What's w/ the GIANT swings in Repub. nomination preference polls in the last year? [Re: Syle]
#7964013 - 02/01/08 09:20 AM (16 years, 17 hours ago) |
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Huckabee represents the evangelical christian portion of the republican base while Giuliani appealed to the national security wing. He is considered a national hero but hadn't yet entered the political fray so his numbers were bound to crash once he came under scrutiny.
There is no one candidate to embrace all of the core beliefs of the party.
-------------------- “The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.” -- Rudiger Dornbusch
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afoaf
CEO DBK?



Registered: 11/08/02
Posts: 32,665
Loc: Ripple's Heart
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Re: What's w/ the GIANT swings in Repub. nomination preference polls in the last year? [Re: johnm214]
#7964235 - 02/01/08 10:28 AM (16 years, 16 hours ago) |
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you're putting too much faith in polls.
-------------------- All I know is The Growery is a place where losers who get banned here go.
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RosettaStoned
Stranger


Registered: 05/29/06
Posts: 540
Loc: North America
Last seen: 15 years, 10 months
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Re: What's w/ the GIANT swings in Repub. nomination preference polls in the last year? [Re: johnm214]
#7965768 - 02/01/08 05:06 PM (16 years, 10 hours ago) |
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And then there's the possibility that the polls are severely tampered with...
-------------------- "Government big enough to provide you with all you need is also big enough to take everything you have." ~ Thomas Jefferson "Without stupid, faggy potheads we wouldn't have wars." - Zappa
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johnm214



Registered: 05/31/07
Posts: 17,582
Loc: Americas
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Re: What's w/ the GIANT swings in Repub. nomination preference polls in the last year? [Re: RosettaStoned]
#7969546 - 02/02/08 05:02 PM (15 years, 11 months ago) |
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whether the polls are accurate or not, they are the same polls... any systematic bias should be negated.
I guess I'm somewhat alone in thinking this shows people make decisions on political matters w/ very little information? I know a poll and the election are two different things, but when someone claims to support a candidate, despite not knowing about him or the others, seems assinine to me
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zorbman
blarrr



Registered: 06/04/04
Posts: 5,952
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Re: What's w/ the GIANT swings in Repub. nomination preference polls in the last year? [Re: johnm214]
#7970151 - 02/02/08 07:35 PM (15 years, 11 months ago) |
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I think you are missing that the support for each Republican candidate this election cycle is soft to begin with. So it doesn't take much to see wild swings towards or away from any candidate.
-------------------- “The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.” -- Rudiger Dornbusch
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