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InvisibleAsante
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WHAT?! AGAIN?!
    #7949465 - 01/29/08 08:14 AM (16 years, 3 days ago)

According to CNN the Fed is expected to cut the rate AGAIN on wednesday.

WTF? Its just been cut by 0.75%!

This is madness!


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Offlinephi1618
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Registered: 02/14/04
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Re: WHAT?! AGAIN?! [Re: Asante]
    #7949684 - 01/29/08 09:25 AM (16 years, 3 days ago)

Look on the bright side - at this rate, you'll be able to buy a nice condo in Fl. for about 30€ (US$300,000,000).


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InvisibleKillerPicklez
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Re: WHAT?! AGAIN?! [Re: phi1618]
    #7949739 - 01/29/08 09:41 AM (16 years, 3 days ago)

Thanks to the Fed we've decided to buy some additional land in Texas and plan on building a 2nd home here in the over several years. This is definitely a good time to have money.


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Invisiblememes
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Re: WHAT?! AGAIN?! [Re: KillerPicklez]
    #7950039 - 01/29/08 11:16 AM (16 years, 3 days ago)

The FEDs FOMC meets Jan 30-31 (tomorrow). They were planning on making the interest rate cuts then, but the rapid decline of the economy a short time ago caused the unexpected 75 basis point cut.

Now they apparently see fit to continue lowering the rates, which i support since they are infinitely more intelligent than I


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InvisibleGr33nday43
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Re: WHAT?! AGAIN?! *DELETED* [Re: memes]
    #7950972 - 01/29/08 03:46 PM (16 years, 3 days ago)

Post deleted by Gr33nday43

Reason for deletion: That's a secret.



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Invisiblememes
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Re: WHAT?! AGAIN?! [Re: Gr33nday43]
    #7951257 - 01/29/08 04:39 PM (16 years, 3 days ago)

hell yeah it should.

Wiccan - assuming the country heads into a recession like it's going to, and as a result (partially) - gold prices continue to rise. Is there any point in time before we pull out of the recession that you plan to sell for profit? Or do you just truly enjoy holding gold? Are prices set to continue rising throughout and after our current eceonomic downturn?

I'm just intrigued, wondering how much info ya got


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: WHAT?! AGAIN?! [Re: memes]
    #7951490 - 01/29/08 05:16 PM (16 years, 3 days ago)

A personal suggestion, if you have been holding gold for a while now, I would suggest selling at least 50% of your position when it hits $1000. The technical trend of gold's rising price should carry it to that mark, but the $1000 mark also holds a lot of psychological resistance. That could proove to be the peak. Of course, we'll have to wait to see what the US Federal Reserve does tomorrow at 2:15pm EST when they announce their decision to lower, raise, or hold interest rates, including any forward-looking statements they may include with the news. It's NEVER a bad idea to hold some gold, but there has been a lot of hype and growth lately, which ultimately will over-extend itself and correct. When that happens is not known, but the prudent move if you have large profits on the table (or large profits in ANY investment), is to trim your position as gold reaches and most likely crosses $1000/oz.


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Offlineart
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Re: WHAT?! AGAIN?! [Re: Asante]
    #7952417 - 01/29/08 08:04 PM (16 years, 3 days ago)

Quote:

Wiccan_Seeker said:
According to CNN the Fed is expected to cut the rate AGAIN on wednesday.

WTF? Its just been cut by 0.75%!

This is madness!




why is this madness?


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: WHAT?! AGAIN?! [Re: art]
    #7952633 - 01/29/08 08:30 PM (16 years, 3 days ago)

Everything is madness! :wink:

The people who want the central bank to raise rates are worried about inflation.
The people who want the central bank to lower rates are worried about deflation.

Check this out:
Quote:

Facing Deflation and Inflation, How Loose Can the Fed Be?
By David Merkel
January 22, 2008

Some of the commentary regarding inflation and deflation misses the point. We are presently faced with both rising consumer price inflation and asset deflation. Not a fun combination, to say the least. It puts the FOMC into a real box. To borrow an analogy from the Bible, Greenspan ate sour grapes, and Bernanke’s teeth are set on edge.

So what does the FOMC do in such a situation? We don’t have that much history to work with, but during the 1970s, the FOMC generally loosened. Fixed income portfolios should tilt toward shorter duration, even though you are losing income, and away from the dollar. It is probably still too early to begin taking a lot of additional credit risk, but the bet is getting more attractive by the day.

Now, there are a number of commentators that can’t wait one week, and say the FOMC should act now. The economy is not like someone that you have to take to the emergency ward; one week makes little difference, and the FOMC will do better work if they are meeting each other face-to-face under normal meeting conditions, than over a conference call.

Given the present equity market distress, should we assume that the FOMC will do more than 50 basis points in January? Had you asked me last week, I would have said “no.” The political pressure is a lot higher now, so I would say yes, they will do more. It won’t help the areas under credit stress, but it will make it look like they are serious about “fixing the economy.”

We could see a move of either 75 or 100 basis points. I debate internally how good Fed funds futures are in abnormal environments like this. Under Greenspan, I sometimes felt that monetary policy had been privatized, and whatever the futures market said, the FOMC would do that. I don’t know if Bernanke has the same faith that futures traders know what the right monetary policy is. If I were a Fed Governor, I certainly would not have that confidence. Once the yield curve gets to a certain slope, the recovery will come in time. Making the curve steeper won’t make it any faster.

People are impatient, and their complaining causes the FOMC to overshoot on policy decisions. The lag that monetary policy has is significant, and the FOMC in recent years has made it even slower through their policies of incrementalism.

There are several possibilities here for the FOMC action:
  • They hold firm, and don’t lower much (50 bp), because price inflation is a concern.
  • They take the judgment of the futures traders, and move a full 100 bp. Or, they conclude that asset deflation is a bigger risk, and decide to make a bold statement. After all, isn’t Bernanke the guy who never wants to see the Great Depression recur, and loose monetary policy can prevent that? (I don’t think that’s right, but…)
  • They split the difference, make bows to both camps in their language, and do a 75 bp cut.

The last of those seems most likely to me. I have said in the past that the FOMC is:
  • Being politically forced to loosen more than they would like, and
  • Dragging their heels in the process.

That’s why I think we end up on the low end of where Fed funds futures will likely point tomorrow. 75 basis points does not trip off the tongue, but will be a compromise position in the minds of Federal Reserve Governors who are puzzled at the present situation. Because of political pressure, they know that they have to move big, but consumer price inflation will make them less aggressive.





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Invisiblememes
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Re: WHAT?! AGAIN?! [Re: geokills]
    #7953533 - 01/29/08 10:42 PM (16 years, 3 days ago)

That guy's spot on. I think they should say fuck the futures traders and worry about inflation. Once inflation is under control economies have a much better time recovering.


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Offlineart
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Re: WHAT?! AGAIN?! [Re: memes]
    #7954080 - 01/30/08 12:22 AM (16 years, 3 days ago)

thank you geokills.

I have faith that the fed is making the right choice.


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OfflineYthanA
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Re: WHAT?! AGAIN?! [Re: Asante]
    #7954849 - 01/30/08 09:16 AM (16 years, 2 days ago)

Quote:

Wiccan_Seeker said:
According to CNN the Fed is expected to cut the rate AGAIN on wednesday.

WTF? Its just been cut by 0.75%!

This is madness!




Madness?



Sorry, sorry, now back to your regularly scheduled discussion. :grin:


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Invisiblememes
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Re: WHAT?! AGAIN?! [Re: Ythan]
    #7956207 - 01/30/08 03:51 PM (16 years, 2 days ago)

So - fed cut another 50 basis points, down to 3%.

Views?

I was surprised, i expected the fed to give in more to the markets and cut it 75.

Sucks tryin to fight stagflation


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: WHAT?! AGAIN?! [Re: memes]
    #7956500 - 01/30/08 04:48 PM (16 years, 2 days ago)

As a stock market investor, I am very pleased. The 1.25% reduction in the federal funds rate over the last two weeks has made cash investments much less appealing (since they will yield less by way of CDs and bonds), which will end up driving that money back into stocks. Particularly to stocks with high dividend yields, especially as dividends also carry a tax advantage over bond yields. Suggestions:
  • Annaly Capital Management (NLY) - 7% annual yield
  • AT&T (T) - 4.25% annual yield
  • Altria (MO) - 4% annual yield
  • McDonalds (MCD) - 3% annual yield
Disclosure: I own all four of the above.


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Invisiblememes
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Re: WHAT?! AGAIN?! [Re: geokills]
    #7956719 - 01/30/08 05:25 PM (16 years, 2 days ago)

I can't wait to graduate, get a great job and start investing. It's like a giant game to me (i make everything in life a game, makes life more fun) that I am quite intent on winning.

ahhhhh economics. <3


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InvisibleLiquidkick
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Posts: 2,635
Re: WHAT?! AGAIN?! [Re: memes]
    #7958012 - 01/30/08 09:40 PM (16 years, 2 days ago)

WOW! i got jacked today! damn downgrades in the bond ratings screwed up the rally...I was set to cash in on my options!!! but now that got screwed up!


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InvisibleColonel Kurtz Ph.D
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Re: WHAT?! AGAIN?! [Re: Ythan]
    #7992520 - 02/07/08 04:28 PM (15 years, 11 months ago)

Quote:

Ythan said:
Quote:

Wiccan_Seeker said:
According to CNN the Fed is expected to cut the rate AGAIN on wednesday.

WTF? Its just been cut by 0.75%!

This is madness!




Madness?



Sorry, sorry, now back to your regularly scheduled discussion. :grin:




We NEED this as an official smiley. Make it happen man!


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InvisibleGoodbyeOrb
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Re: WHAT?! AGAIN?! [Re: Colonel Kurtz Ph.D]
    #7995051 - 02/08/08 07:00 AM (15 years, 11 months ago)

I second.


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Invisiblecactu
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Re: WHAT?! AGAIN?! [Re: GoodbyeOrb]
    #8015308 - 02/12/08 09:45 PM (15 years, 11 months ago)

my soul is high still


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Offlinekadakuda
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Re: WHAT?! AGAIN?! [Re: Asante]
    #8015784 - 02/12/08 11:54 PM (15 years, 11 months ago)

bush has secretly made a deal with the chinese to fuck up the US economy so its easier for the chinese world take over.

i am waiting for teh crash o fthe US and followed by canada....i am wanting to buy a small town :smile:


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