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Offlinevintage_gonzo
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Sub-prime Crisis and Recession Fears
    #7926242 - 01/24/08 08:04 PM (16 years, 8 days ago)

I have been reading a lot lately about the economic troubles we are apparently getting ready to head into. I understand the overall principles of the crises but a question that I cant seem to get is who is at fault for this. Who was supposed to be watching over the mortgage lenders and why is he not in jail right now? There are tons of articles about what is going on right now but I have not seen any that tell me who/what instituations allowed it to happen in the first place. I have a feeling it is greed at the highest levels of banking that KNEW what the were getting into yet allowed it anyways for a quick buck. Anybody have any articles?


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Sub-prime Crisis and Recession Fears [Re: vintage_gonzo]
    #7927611 - 01/24/08 11:38 PM (16 years, 8 days ago)

Greed was definitely at the heart of the equation. As for who is at fault here, I would suggest that both the lenders (for deception) and the borrowers (for ignorance and negligence) are responsible for this economic downturn. The lenders should obviously be regulating themselves better, as it is in their long-term interests to do so if they wish to stay in business. Unfortunately, people blind to risk opted to gamble on both sides, not thinking of the inevitable consequences.

Not every financial institution got it wrong though. Hudson City Bank (HCBK) and Goldman Sachs (GS) managed to muster the forsight to steer clear of these bad debts almost entirely - Hudson City by avoiding lending to risky clients, and Goldman Sachs by avoiding the purchase of bad paper, such as the structured investment vehicles and collateralized debt obligations that bundled all these bad debts together.

On the topic of recession, we won't really know what will happen until it happens... but at least the government has started to address the situation by lowering interest rates and to a lesser extent, offering the stimulus package they announced earlier today even though giving away money to consumers is a very short sighted and temporary solution that will only truly benefit the retail industry. The point is, it looks like the powers that be are starting to be a little more proactive, instead of reactive. And that's what leaders are there for so let's hope they know what they're doing!


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InvisibleIcelander
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Re: Sub-prime Crisis and Recession Fears [Re: geokills]
    #7929165 - 01/25/08 10:19 AM (16 years, 7 days ago)

I guess most if not all recessions are created by banks. When investors find a good deal they take loans to capitalize on it (take the housing boom). The banks make big buck with the loans and so begin to get greedy and take on more risker loans which eventually backfires. Then the pendulum swings the other way and the banks get too tight on making loans and it's hard to get investment money. Guess who pays for all this?:tongue:


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Sub-prime Crisis and Recession Fears [Re: Icelander]
    #7929207 - 01/25/08 10:32 AM (16 years, 7 days ago)

I would agree that the banks take the lion's share of the responsibility on account of their deceptive and manipulative tactics, but you can't wholly dismiss the consumer who fails to adequately educate themselves on the contracts they enter into with the banks. I mean, did they even read the fine print on these adjustable rate interest only mortgages? Did they think to ask the lender what could happen to their monthly payments when the rates reset or their home loses value? Instead, it seems like they chose to listen blindly to what the lender told them "should" happen, failing to recognize that there are no certainties in this world and that the housing market like most other aspects of the economy is cyclical - rising and falling. Even though I agree many lenders were deceptive in providing a false sense of security to borrowers, greed blinds everyone to downside risk, and the greed goes both ways.


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InvisibleLayYouIn
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Re: Sub-prime Crisis and Recession Fears [Re: geokills]
    #7929697 - 01/25/08 12:55 PM (16 years, 7 days ago)

so will these people that borrowed money and are in still in debt get screwed by a recession or will it help them? will it reset everyones credit score or will they all go bankrupt?

i've always been really good about saving up money and then buying something rather than taking out a loan, and im wondering if i would have been better off being in debt thousands of dollars when this goes down.

id like to see some of these people that have contributed to this pay the price for those of us who haven't gone into debt.

also, when the great depression hit, what happened to those who were deep in dept during it and what happened to them after it?

i just have a feeling that people that owe thousands of dollars are going to walk away from this debt less with a big smile, while i regret not living above my means.

edit: also, would this be a good time to go back to school?


Edited by LayYouIn (01/25/08 01:07 PM)


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OfflineGnosticWarrior
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Re: Sub-prime Crisis and Recession Fears [Re: LayYouIn]
    #7934397 - 01/26/08 11:02 AM (16 years, 6 days ago)

Quote:

geokills said:
I would agree that the banks take the lion's share of the responsibility on account of their deceptive and manipulative tactics, but you can't wholly dismiss the consumer who fails to adequately educate themselves on the contracts they enter into with the banks. I mean, did they even read the fine print on these adjustable rate interest only mortgages? Did they think to ask the lender what could happen to their monthly payments when the rates reset or their home loses value? Instead, it seems like they chose to listen blindly to what the lender told them "should" happen, failing to recognize that there are no certainties in this world and that the housing market like most other aspects of the economy is cyclical - rising and falling. Even though I agree many lenders were deceptive in providing a false sense of security to borrowers, greed blinds everyone to downside risk, and the greed goes both ways.





The consumer will have to face up to their consequences too. They shouldn't be given any breaks. But what is funny about these banks, financials is that their lossing big amounts of money and were willing to take cash infusions from foreign countries which may lead to possible ownership dillution.

It's hard to admit but the shareholders who are taking a loss are the dumbest ones. They're taking the biggest jerk here and that's me. Never invest in any company where the CEO does not have a big stake in the success of the company. These CEO's did not act like real owners and yet got paid well for doing a piss poor job. The employees, although some got laid off, they probably got big bonuses during those boom times.


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OfflineGnosticWarrior
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Re: Sub-prime Crisis and Recession Fears [Re: LayYouIn]
    #7934546 - 01/26/08 11:35 AM (16 years, 6 days ago)

Quote:

LayYouIn said:
so will these people that borrowed money and are in still in debt get screwed by a recession or will it help them? will it reset everyones credit score or will they all go bankrupt?

i've always been really good about saving up money and then buying something rather than taking out a loan, and im wondering if i would have been better off being in debt thousands of dollars when this goes down.

id like to see some of these people that have contributed to this pay the price for those of us who haven't gone into debt.

also, when the great depression hit, what happened to those who were deep in dept during it and what happened to them after it?

i just have a feeling that people that owe thousands of dollars are going to walk away from this debt less with a big smile, while i regret not living above my means.

edit: also, would this be a good time to go back to school?




You made the right move by not taking debt. Those who can't make payments will not be able to just walk away. The only break some will get, is that there is pressure to prevent foreclosures. The govt. passed a bill to freeze mortgage rates for 5 years. They want to make sure that anyone who bought a home for investment purposes do not get that break. Also the fed lowered interest rates.

However, starting last year the govt. has a new law that makes it harder for debtors to file for Bankruptcy. I'd rather be debt free rather than have bought an over inflated home.

The whole thing has not played out yet and so we don't know what the real consequence are. This to me is a little more clear, by lowering the interest rates the fed has devalued the dollar, which means every dollar in relation to other assets are buys less. If school tuition has not risen to adjust for this, then it appears to be cheaper even in dollar terms its still the same. The outlook for agricultural, mining, energy, and enviromental jobs looks pretty good to me.


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Offlinephi1618
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Re: Sub-prime Crisis and Recession Fears [Re: geokills]
    #7934605 - 01/26/08 11:46 AM (16 years, 6 days ago)

Quote:

Goldman Sachs by avoiding the purchase of bad paper, such as the structured investment vehicles and collateralized debt obligations that bundled all these bad debts together.



I'm pretty sure GS sold and retained as much CDO/CMO investment risk as any other bank. The difference was that a separate branch of the bank simultaneously sold these investments short through the use of credit default swaps. When the investments went bad, GS and their customers lost a ton of money, but GS also made all that money and more back through their CDS.

In any case, the culprits in the banking industry all get $100 million bonuses (GS) and severance packages (Countrywide). Overextended borrowers got to live the good life for a couple years as they withdrew money from their homes, and can now foreclose if they want. The ones who get screwed are investors - pension funds, mutual funds, foreign banks, individuals who own financial stocks and the various AAA rated junk debt instrument. Taxpayers - who get to pay for a bailout now and more to come. Anyone who owns dollars, as the Fed drops interest rates to prop up asset prices (and possibly in the future guarantees low interest rates on long term debt, as the fed funds rate goes to a nominal 0).

The middle class in America has been seriously fucked over. If you put $10000 in an S&P 500 index fund on Jan 1, 2000, you'd now have a royal $9000 dollars. If you purchased Euros and kept the bills in a safety deposit box at the bank (no interest), you'd now have about $14500. In the meantime, hedge fund managers and investment bank CEOs were making 9-10 figures a year in the "new financial architecture", which turns out to have been the greatest system ever invented for transferring wealth from us to them.

This is the best approximation of an unregulated free market we could get.


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Offlinephi1618
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Re: Sub-prime Crisis and Recession Fears [Re: GnosticWarrior]
    #7934612 - 01/26/08 11:48 AM (16 years, 6 days ago)

If you default on your mortgage and are foreclosed on, it will stay on your credit history for 7 years. If you're seriously underwater (as many are), the smart thing to do is to just walk away.


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InvisibleLayYouIn
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Re: Sub-prime Crisis and Recession Fears [Re: phi1618]
    #7935014 - 01/26/08 01:11 PM (16 years, 6 days ago)

Quote:

GnosticWarrior said:
Those who can't make payments will not be able to just walk away.




Quote:

phi1618 said:
If you're seriously underwater (as many are), the smart thing to do is to just walk away.




will they be able to or not?

i know a guy who is the same age as me and has his bachelors degree because he took out loans. will his loans be scratched meaning he gets free schooling? he also has several cars but is in debt. i like him though, but im jealous of the things he has and how he's in debt. what would happen to a person like this during a recession.

Quote:

phi1618 said:
Anyone who owns dollars,




right now i have $3000 in the bank and i keep saving up $1000 each month. is this a bad idea to do at the time? should i be spending? im saving for a new vehicle and plan to buy one in spring/summer.


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Offlinephi1618
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Re: Sub-prime Crisis and Recession Fears [Re: LayYouIn]
    #7935171 - 01/26/08 01:39 PM (16 years, 6 days ago)

Student loans generally work differently than other debts, in that they can't be removed in bankruptcy and never go off your credit record even if you stop making payments. Most other types of secured and unsecured debts (mortgages, car payments, etc.) eventually (after 7 years) go off your record if you don't pay them. It is possible for a creditor to sue you if you have the ability but not the willingness to pay a debt.

Over the long haul, the dollar will most likely continue to decline, but there could be a major correction at any time because there are a huge number of shorts (people betting on the continued decline of the dollar) that may at some point need to cover - buy dollars to cover their debts. In any case, it's a good idea, if you can, to diversify beyond just dollar denominated debt (bank deposits). Buying yen can be a good hedge against a stock market crash - if you keep some of your money in yen (which pays awful interest rates), you'll benefit if the yen carry trade continues to unwind (which will drive down the price of other assets, like stocks).

Definitely, continue saving. I can snidely say that overextended borrowers did pretty well in the housing boom and won't need to pay the price, but in the end any net debtor is poor and will become more poor - you don't want to end up a slave to your debt.


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OfflineGnosticWarrior
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Re: Sub-prime Crisis and Recession Fears [Re: LayYouIn]
    #7938922 - 01/27/08 02:04 AM (16 years, 5 days ago)

Quote:

LayYouIn said:
Quote:

GnosticWarrior said:
Those who can't make payments will not be able to just walk away.








LayYouIn, I think the statement I made is wrong. phi1618 knows more than me. I have no actual experience with bankruptcies and you don't really know the rules until you do. I don't want to find out.


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InvisibleLayYouIn
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Re: Sub-prime Crisis and Recession Fears [Re: phi1618]
    #7939623 - 01/27/08 10:30 AM (16 years, 5 days ago)

would this be a good time to consider going back to school?

what things should a person not do and what things could a person do to "take advantage" of the situation?


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Offlinerizingfire
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Re: Sub-prime Crisis and Recession Fears [Re: LayYouIn]
    #7939664 - 01/27/08 10:48 AM (16 years, 5 days ago)

IMO the investment companies are to blame for the most part. Irresponsible consumers are responsible for their own personal financial affairs but by trying to capitalize on people with poor credit by approving them anyway but incuring rediculous interest rates they set them up to fail. Obviously if someone dangles the American dream in front of someone who pays $1000+/Month in rent of course they will bite. Then they take they mortgage price that the buyer can usually barely make anyway and jack up the price. They should make it so there can never be an increase for the term of the loan but should interest rates drop the price can be lowered while should it return it can never go above the initial decided rate. Now I know that is a pipe dream unless you have good credit. We now see the domino effect of some i'll thought marketing and that closed doors to lenders going bankrupt and here we are.

I do toxic mold testing and treatment so I spend a lot of time with realtors. I have a friend right now who has 110 foreclosed homes on the market. All of them have mold and were initially market down $60k automatically. The few houses that I looked at on the list only needed $2k in mold remediation and another $2-$3k in remodeling. So I talk to people often about flipping houses. Another friend who is a Realtor and a mold specialist said the market should be perfect for flipping again by the end of this year to all of next year. He, and several others in real estate have said the same thing. They all said the market is changing for the better.I would think they would see a recession far before anyone else since the housing market is in direct relation to the economy since foreclosures only come when people can't pay their bills. My credit sucks from when I was a heroin addict but anyone interested in partnering on a flip (you buy it and i'll fix it) or even just willing to use my mold services for a special shrooming discount as well I would be glad to introduce you all to her. (Not that I expect anyone to take this seriously but if you do the offer stands. As soon as I build up enough credit I am gonna do it.) She is super fine and single too, 28-30 and looks like a whorish yet dignified Barbie Doll...lol My work has increased so if anything the unemployment rate in many places is due to overal laziness throughout the nation because even as a heroin addict, when I lived in Leominster MA I have quit several jobs and found a replacement for equal or greater pay the same day...so I find it hard to believe there is no work.....now where I lived in WVirginia for a bit that was different but half those people didn't have running water and still used outhouses so they don't count ..lol


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InvisibleIcelander
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Re: Sub-prime Crisis and Recession Fears [Re: geokills]
    #7941334 - 01/27/08 04:59 PM (16 years, 5 days ago)

Quote:

geokills said:
I would agree that the banks take the lion's share of the responsibility on account of their deceptive and manipulative tactics, but you can't wholly dismiss the consumer who fails to adequately educate themselves on the contracts they enter into with the banks. I mean, did they even read the fine print on these adjustable rate interest only mortgages? Did they think to ask the lender what could happen to their monthly payments when the rates reset or their home loses value? Instead, it seems like they chose to listen blindly to what the lender told them "should" happen, failing to recognize that there are no certainties in this world and that the housing market like most other aspects of the economy is cyclical - rising and falling. Even though I agree many lenders were deceptive in providing a false sense of security to borrowers, greed blinds everyone to downside risk, and the greed goes both ways.





You are absolutely correct Sir. I stand corrected.


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"Don't believe everything you think". -Anom.

" All that lives was born to die"-Anom.

With much wisdom comes much sorrow,
The more knowledge, the more grief.
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OfflineGnosticWarrior
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Re: Sub-prime Crisis and Recession Fears [Re: phi1618]
    #7942691 - 01/27/08 09:01 PM (16 years, 5 days ago)

Quote:

phi1618 said:
If you default on your mortgage and are foreclosed on, it will stay on your credit history for 7 years. If you're seriously underwater (as many are), the smart thing to do is to just walk away.




You're right! Now I understand why debtors are choosing to pay their credit cards and not their mortgages.

Here's some good articles that I found on this subject:

http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2007/12/walking-away-fr.html

http://www.fool.com/personal-finance/taxes/2007/08/30/no-tax-relief-for-housing-woes.aspx


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Sub-prime Crisis and Recession Fears [Re: phi1618]
    #7945510 - 01/28/08 02:05 PM (16 years, 4 days ago)

Quote:

phi1618 said:

I'm pretty sure GS sold and retained as much CDO/CMO investment risk as any other bank. The difference was that a separate branch of the bank simultaneously sold these investments short through the use of credit default swaps. When the investments went bad, GS and their customers lost a ton of money, but GS also made all that money and more back through their CDS.



You are correct.  My bad!  I do still admire their skill in self-preservation. :tongue:



Quote:

rizingfire said:

I talk to people often about flipping houses. Another friend who is a Realtor and a mold specialist said the market should be perfect for flipping again by the end of this year to all of next year. He, and several others in real estate have said the same thing. They all said the market is changing for the better.I would think they would see a recession far before anyone else since the housing market is in direct relation to the economy since foreclosures only come when people can't pay their bills.



The housing sector is currently in recession.  Just today, the Commerce Department reported U.S. builders slashed prices by more than 10% in December yet failed to boost sales, which dropped about 5% to near 13-year lows.  The S&P 500 average is down some 15% from its high, the Nasdaq last week was as far off as 23% from its 52-week high set around November 1st, 2007. 

So in terms of the future pricing mechanism that is the stock market, we are practically already in a recession.  Unemployment is also a closely watched indicator of recession.  The fact that unemployment has started to trend higher recently (even though it is still low relative to historic levels), only serves to make more nervous the economic landscape we are amidst.

The question now is about the extent to which the problems in the housing and closely attached credit markets will affect the macro-economy's other individual sectors.  It's a ripple effect that slowly radiates from its epicenter.  Recent moves by the government in lowering interest rates, freezing some adjustable rate mortgages, and appearing more proactive should help stabilize the housing sector.  But the full extent of the damage done will only reveal itself over time.


Edited by geokills (01/28/08 06:01 PM)


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Offlinephi1618
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Re: Sub-prime Crisis and Recession Fears [Re: GnosticWarrior]
    #7949566 - 01/29/08 08:44 AM (16 years, 3 days ago)

Here's another interesting wrinkle on the whole "just walk away" meme:
http://www.youwalkaway.com/index.html

I read and enjoyed the links you gave, as well. One interesting question is whether mortgage is recourse or non-recourse (this was briefly touched in both your links).
According to this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortgage
it depends on jurisdiction.

Recourse loans are ones where the lender could come after your assets and income (by suing you) to make up for the amount of the loan not covered by the value of the home.
It's not clear to me how this will all work out, but I suspect that the friendly people at "You Walk Away" (linked above) know the details for any jurisdiction.


Edited by phi1618 (01/29/08 08:57 AM)


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InvisibleLayYouIn
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Re: Sub-prime Crisis and Recession Fears [Re: LayYouIn]
    #8084899 - 02/29/08 03:43 AM (15 years, 10 months ago)

does people making untaxed money contribute to the recession?

are chances higher during this recession for it to turn into a depression, compared to the last recessions?

i keep hearing(radio, tv, etc.) that it's going to be really bad compared to the rest...why is that?


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Invisiblebradmassive
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Re: Sub-prime Crisis and Recession Fears [Re: vintage_gonzo]
    #8096983 - 03/03/08 10:48 AM (15 years, 10 months ago)

The FED are responsible.


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"Our progress as a species rests squarely on the shoulders of that tenth person. The nine are satisfied with things they are told are valuable. Person 10 determines for himself what has value." - My good friend Za -


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Offlinephi1618
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Re: Sub-prime Crisis and Recession Fears [Re: LayYouIn]
    #8097174 - 03/03/08 11:42 AM (15 years, 10 months ago)

The problem now is that losses are heavily concentrated on the banks and related financial institutions. Since the banks are loosing lots of money, their capital base is contracting. Since they're loosing capital, they need to reduce their exposure to risk, which means loaning less money. Since the economy as a whole is credit-driven - companies need to borrow money to expand their business, consumers borrow money to buy stuff (whether houses, cars, or shit on the credit card), etc. - a contraction in credit will lead to a contraction in the economy. As a result, $200 or $300 billion of losses on to the banks could lead to $1-2 trillion less money in the economy, which means everybody suffers.
This is on top of the direct losses of jobs in the construction and housing sector, and the fact that most people are much poorer than they used to be because of the lost equity in their homes, and will spend less as a result.
Unsound financial institutions and massive credit contraction are the real worries that might make this worse than other recent disasters.


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