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InvisibleAsante
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2007TU24 -- We are so fucked
    #7923167 - 01/24/08 06:03 AM (16 years, 8 days ago)




Next thursday an asteroid that could wipe out an entire nation misses the earth by an astronomical hair's width (0.5 Mkm) as it soars through the solar system. It's approximately 0.3 km across.

I've set some estimations loose on this earth impact calculator and an asteroid like that easily could exert a force of 1.5 gigatons, which is over 100.000 times the force of the atomic bomb that struck Hiroshima, or 30 times bigger than the most destructive hydrogen bomb ever set off. Such an impact on land would kill all inhabitants in an area the size of a State, with destructive effects more than a 1.000 miles from ground zero. If it plunged into the ocean, it would cause a Tsunami the magnitude of which is unprecedented in recorded history.

But the one of next tuesday will probably, like, miss us.

Why then are we so fucked?

We are so fucked because this asteroid that on an astronomical scale barely misses us, was only discovered on 11 October 2007. That's right, there would have been only 110 days between the discovery of this asteroid and the day it would have hit us. That is NOT enough time to come up with an effective comet deflection response. Its not enough time even to have the planet properly brace for impact.

It gets worse: NASA has only decided the comet would not hit the earth on 4 December 2007. Thats a mere 56 days before a possible impact! You can't evacuate an area the size of the state of Texas, let alone the Atlantic coastal area of say both Americas, Africa and Europe in case of an ocean impact.

This one is gonna miss us says NASA, but what it does is clearly demonstrate how tragically inept our impact defense capabilities are.

Due to lack of funding, the number of scientists scanning the skies for inbound asteroids and comets is smaller than the number of employees working in an average McD*nalds restaurant.

Pathetic! And such under-funding and under-staffing is bound to get pathetic results, like 56 days between trajectory confirmation and possible impact of an asteroid exerting a force of over 100.000 Hiroshima bombs.

What kind of world do we live in that a single nation spends $2.100.000.000 to buy one of these:





but puts defense of our entire planet against an apocalypse beyond comprehension on a budget at not even one percent of the price of one such bomber.

And thats why I say: we are so fucked.. if we don't fix it before an asteroid with our name on it decides to make a house call.


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Offlinewrestler_az
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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: Asante]
    #7923178 - 01/24/08 06:19 AM (16 years, 8 days ago)

i am looking forward to the day one finally does hit us, and i hope im still alive to see it happen when it does.


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  Edited by yageman (04/20/06 4:20 PM) 


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OfflineCubie
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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: Asante]
    #7923179 - 01/24/08 06:20 AM (16 years, 8 days ago)

That's crazy as fuck. It would be so crazy to witness something like that. Did it say what side of earth is going to be able to see it?


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Invisibledemiu5
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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: Asante]
    #7923180 - 01/24/08 06:21 AM (16 years, 8 days ago)

omg, let's put our shields up and blast that inanimate, inorganic rock out of the sky that is hell-bent on destroying us and everything we hold dear

:rolleyes:


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Offlinewrestler_az
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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: demiu5]
    #7923181 - 01/24/08 06:23 AM (16 years, 8 days ago)

bruce willis will save us...


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  Edited by yageman (04/20/06 4:20 PM) 


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Invisibledemiu5
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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: wrestler_az]
    #7923183 - 01/24/08 06:23 AM (16 years, 8 days ago)

two times over


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OfflineCubie
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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: demiu5]
    #7923185 - 01/24/08 06:27 AM (16 years, 8 days ago)

No. Chuck Norris will roundhouse that fucker into the sun.


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InvisibleAsante
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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: demiu5]
    #7923195 - 01/24/08 06:46 AM (16 years, 8 days ago)

Quote:

omg, let's put our shields up and blast that inanimate, inorganic rock out of the sky that is hell-bent on destroying us and everything we hold dear




You haven't actually read the post have you?

This particular comet isn't the problem, it's how little we do to prevent one from one day actually hitting us.


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Offlinewrestler_az
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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: Asante]
    #7923200 - 01/24/08 06:49 AM (16 years, 8 days ago)

could we really prevent it from happening, even if we tried? i mean, come on...

how would you suggest we go about it, given the opportunity?


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  Edited by yageman (04/20/06 4:20 PM) 


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InvisibleAsante
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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: wrestler_az]
    #7923222 - 01/24/08 07:01 AM (16 years, 8 days ago)

Quote:


could we really prevent it from happening, even if we tried? i mean, come on...




Given enough time in advance we very well could.

Quote:

how would you suggest we go about it, given the opportunity?




If its just a relatively small asteroid like this one, a fifty megaton thermonuclear bomb would vaporize it. Such a warhead only weighs 25 tons at most. No need for advanced technologies, just raw firepower.

For bigger ones, you could explode a thermonuclear bomb to the side of the asteroid at a standoff, not to obliterate but to make one side of the asteroid fuming hot. These fumes will alter the trajectory of the asteroid. Over vast distances, a small correction goes a long way. Similar results can be accomplished by attaching a solar sail to the asteroid, but this takes more time.


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InvisibleWhiskeyClone
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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: Asante]
    #7923240 - 01/24/08 07:17 AM (16 years, 8 days ago)

For some reason, I am absolutely not worried about asteroids hitting the earth. I think it's a dignified way for humanity to end.


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Welcome evermore to gods and men is the self-helping man.  For him all doors are flung wide: him all tongues greet, all honors crown, all eyes follow with desire.  Our love goes out to him and embraces him, because he did not need it.

~ R.W. Emerson, "Self-Reliance"

:heartpump:


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Offlinerizingfire
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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: WhiskeyClone]
    #7923248 - 01/24/08 07:22 AM (16 years, 8 days ago)

Whiskey, better than us destroying ourselves right? lol


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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: rizingfire]
    #7923253 - 01/24/08 07:25 AM (16 years, 8 days ago)

It would be really sad that we never got to populate the universe though. Would be a lot better then is destroying ourselves


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Offlinewrestler_az
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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: Asante]
    #7923257 - 01/24/08 07:28 AM (16 years, 8 days ago)

maybe... but im still skeptical of our abilities as far as this goes. or perhaps hopeful that we are as stupid as i think we are. i really really really want to see this happen.

perhaps in 2029 ill get that chance.

/me crosses fingers

http://www.umich.edu/news/?Releases/2005/Aug05/r081605c


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  Edited by yageman (04/20/06 4:20 PM) 


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InvisibleAsante
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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: WhiskeyClone]
    #7923258 - 01/24/08 07:30 AM (16 years, 8 days ago)

Quote:

For some reason, I am absolutely not worried about asteroids hitting the earth. I think it's a dignified way for humanity to end.




We owe it to the starfishes and the zebras that we prevent this if we can. It wouldn't just be humanity wiped out, but perhaps all life on earth. 4.5 G years of evolution could have been in vain, and what a waste it would be.

Besides, the chance of an asteroid like Tuesday's blammo hitting first is far, far more likely than a 50km Doomsday whopper falling from the skies. One that will only cause mass-suffering, not total extinction. A kind of Nuclear Winter could be the result.

It's not just us humans on the planet, we have all possible lifeforms to defend here. Harmless little critters who's survival depends on us getting our heads out of our asses and taking planetary responsibility.

Maybe mankind is Evolution's answer to being pommeled with Extinction Level Event asteroids every odd hundred million years, ever think of that one? We are a young species in a destructive type of civilization now, but perhaps our role in the grand scheme of things is to preserve life on earth and spread it among the stars.


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InvisibleWhiskeyClone
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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: rizingfire]
    #7923259 - 01/24/08 07:30 AM (16 years, 8 days ago)

Quote:

rizingfire said:
Whiskey, better than us destroying ourselves right? lol




Yes.


--------------------
Welcome evermore to gods and men is the self-helping man.  For him all doors are flung wide: him all tongues greet, all honors crown, all eyes follow with desire.  Our love goes out to him and embraces him, because he did not need it.

~ R.W. Emerson, "Self-Reliance"

:heartpump:


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Invisiblepoke smot!
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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked *DELETED* [Re: Asante]
    #7923270 - 01/24/08 07:37 AM (16 years, 8 days ago)

Post deleted by poke smot!

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Invisiblememes
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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: poke smot!]
    #7923276 - 01/24/08 07:44 AM (16 years, 8 days ago)

'eh - would've been a sweet way to go out.


"when the world ends, we'll be burnin one..."


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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: Asante]
    #7923286 - 01/24/08 07:52 AM (16 years, 8 days ago)

Were there any WMDs on the asteroid?


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Invisiblememes
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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #7923296 - 01/24/08 07:55 AM (16 years, 8 days ago)

yes, we commenced "Operation Astroidal Freedom" two days ago


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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #7923298 - 01/24/08 07:56 AM (16 years, 8 days ago)

It is one


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OfflineAnnom
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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: Asante]
    #7923355 - 01/24/08 08:24 AM (16 years, 8 days ago)

You are completely right that we have poor detection systems (It's pretty amazing already, but could be way better) and zero developed deflection designs.

If it would cost 50 billion per 100years to build and operate such a system it would cost every world citizens $5 for a lifelong insurance against asteroid impact.

Are you willing to pay that?
Not all world citizens would pay that right now, but in my optimistic future we sure have/need a good asteroid deflection system.

I'm just back from an exam where I had to solve an astrodynamics problem of an incoming asteroid. Imagine the mount Everest approaching you with 15 km/s (= 33554 mph), that hurts!


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OfflineAJ4U Happy Birthday!
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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: WhiskeyClone]
    #7923383 - 01/24/08 08:32 AM (16 years, 8 days ago)

Quote:

WhiskeyClone said:
For some reason, I am absolutely not worried about asteroids hitting the earth. I think it's a dignified way for humanity to end.




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Invisiblememes
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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: AJ4U]
    #7923392 - 01/24/08 08:38 AM (16 years, 8 days ago)

AJ4u, your avatar is crazy


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OfflineAJ4U Happy Birthday!
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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: memes]
    #7923408 - 01/24/08 08:47 AM (16 years, 8 days ago)

As is yours


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InvisibletrendalM
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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: Asante]
    #7923416 - 01/24/08 08:49 AM (16 years, 8 days ago)

If its just a relatively small asteroid like this one, a fifty megaton thermonuclear bomb would vaporize it. Such a warhead only weighs 25 tons at most. No need for advanced technologies, just raw firepower.

Sure...if we wanted to die a horrible flaming death as opposed to a cold, starving one :smirk:

All the credible researchers say that the idea of blowing up an approaching asteroid with nuclear weapons is bogus. You've been watching too much Hollywood :wink:

You would only succeed in blowing the asteroid apart...most or it would be blown outwards by the nuclear fireball. Worse, recent discoveries (including one rendevouz with an asteroid by a Japanese probe) indicate that asteroids are not solid objects. Rather they are like giant clumps of rocks held together with dust.

What you would likely do is spread out the damage, so that all parts of the Earth get hit. The atmosphere would become heated by the millions of smaller particles that burn up in it. Not a good thing :wink:

A much better option, and one I've heard recently, is to use a large mirror or lens to focus the sun on one side of the asteroid. The focused energy will heat up the section of asteroid under it releasing gas, and that acts as a small rocket engine to push the asteroid out of the danger zone.

Only problem, is it would take a lot longer than 56 days :frown:


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InvisibleAsante
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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: Annom]
    #7923418 - 01/24/08 08:49 AM (16 years, 8 days ago)

Quote:

it would cost every world citizens $5 for a lifelong insurance against asteroid impact.





Well, that's a steal! Build one B2 Stealth Bomber less and the world is covered for 4 years :smile:

Quote:

Not all world citizens would pay that right now, but in my optimistic future we sure have/need a good asteroid deflection system.




We should. Every "insurmountable" problem we tackle has tons of technological offspins which often seem stupendously unrelated. An asteroid deflection system could have offspins like leaps in consumer technology, improved structural metal alloys, UV-resistant house paint and God knows what.

Quote:

I'm just back from an exam where I had to solve an astrodynamics problem of an incoming asteroid. Imagine the mount Everest approaching you with 15 km/s (= 33554 mph), that hurts!




Interesting stuff! Did you think you passed?


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InvisibletrendalM
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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: Asante]
    #7923429 - 01/24/08 08:52 AM (16 years, 8 days ago)

Have you ever read The Hammer of God by Arthur C. Clarke?


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Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free.
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Invisibleblissedout
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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: rizingfire]
    #7923432 - 01/24/08 08:53 AM (16 years, 8 days ago)

Quote:

rizingfire said:
Whiskey, better than us destroying ourselves right? lol



Dead's dead. Any way that it happens, you'e still dead.


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InvisibleWhiskeyClone
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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: Asante]
    #7923530 - 01/24/08 09:32 AM (16 years, 8 days ago)

Quote:

Wiccan_Seeker said:

We owe it to the starfishes and the zebras that we prevent this if we can. It wouldn't just be humanity wiped out, but perhaps all life on earth. 4.5 G years of evolution could have been in vain, and what a waste it would be.

Besides, the chance of an asteroid like Tuesday's blammo hitting first is far, far more likely than a 50km Doomsday whopper falling from the skies. One that will only cause mass-suffering, not total extinction. A kind of Nuclear Winter could be the result.

It's not just us humans on the planet, we have all possible lifeforms to defend here. Harmless little critters who's survival depends on us getting our heads out of our asses and taking planetary responsibility.

Maybe mankind is Evolution's answer to being pommeled with Extinction Level Event asteroids every odd hundred million years, ever think of that one? We are a young species in a destructive type of civilization now, but perhaps our role in the grand scheme of things is to preserve life on earth and spread it among the stars.




One thing I think we should clarify here: 'Near misses' are far more frequent than impacts.

You said the object will pass within 500,000 km, correct? The earth's diameter is 12,700km. The cross-sectional area of the 'near-miss' sphere is 500,0002*pi, which is an area of 785,300,000,000km2. The cross-sectional area of earth is (12700/2)2* pi, which equals 126,700,000km2.

This means a near-miss (if we define that as a pass within 500,000km) occurs over six thousand times as often as a strike.

We could invest billions in developing systems that may have a chance of preventing one of these events, given that the one that IS headed for us is of manageable size.

Far more likely to exterminate (or merely decimate) humanity are disease, pollution, nuclear war, climate change, and biological evolution. To me it makes much more sense to address more immediate concerns than the possibility of earth getting hit by a rock. I just don't think it's very likely to occur in such a timeframe that would make it practical to invest billions in a defense system, while we are still using natural resources at an unbridled, unsustainable rate. Compare it to building a storm cellar in your house before putting out the grease fire on the stove.


--------------------
Welcome evermore to gods and men is the self-helping man.  For him all doors are flung wide: him all tongues greet, all honors crown, all eyes follow with desire.  Our love goes out to him and embraces him, because he did not need it.

~ R.W. Emerson, "Self-Reliance"

:heartpump:


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OfflineAnnom
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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: Asante]
    #7923535 - 01/24/08 09:35 AM (16 years, 8 days ago)

Quote:

Well, that's a steal! Build one B2 Stealth Bomber less and the world is covered for 4 years.




Its amazing that the US (and many other nations) can spend so much on tools for war.

Quote:

Interesting stuff! Did you think you passed?



Astrodynamics(celestial mechanics) is one of the courses I enjoyed most. I think I just passed. Next semester I have the second part of the course so there is more interesting stuff to discover.


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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: memes]
    #7923540 - 01/24/08 09:36 AM (16 years, 8 days ago)

Quote:

by an astronomical hair's width (0.5 Mkm) as it soars through the solar system. It's approximately 0.3 km across.




Lets stick with common scales... 0.3km across at a distance of 500000 km from Earth. For reference, the moon is around 384000 km from Earth.

Quote:

If its just a relatively small asteroid like this one, a fifty megaton thermonuclear bomb would vaporize it. Such a warhead only weighs 25 tons at most. No need for advanced technologies, just raw firepower.




Have you done the math to see how difficult it is to get 25 tons out of earth orbit? Zarya, part of the ISS, weighed in at 22 tons and had to be launched by Russia because the US couldn't get anything that large into orbit. Even then, they only had to get it into low Earth orbit, not escape Earths gravity completely.

Quote:

maybe... but im still skeptical of our abilities as far as this goes.




Time is the important factor. We only have to nudge something an itty bitty tiny bit if we discover it soon enough. The closer it gets before hitting us, the less we are able to do anything about it. This tidbit was one of the few technical mistakes made in the Bruce Willis movie. (The other mistake is that the drilled hole + bomb would act as a rocket jet to move the asteroid rather than blowing it up; this would have been difficult to explain in a movie.)

Quote:

i am looking forward to the day one finally does hit us, and i hope im still alive to see it happen when it does.




There is a decent fictional book that deals with characters that survive a large asteroid hit. Lucifer's Hammer by Larry Niven (author of Ringworld).


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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: Seuss]
    #7923604 - 01/24/08 09:58 AM (16 years, 8 days ago)

>Have you done the math to see how difficult it is to get 25 tons out of earth orbit?

We could do it in a single shot with the retired Satrun V :smile: Or with a few "cheap" Soyuz launches.

I like the idea of early detection and sending a swarm of pushing/pulling spacecraft, with ion engines powered by RTGs or solar cells. I had a study project where we used gravity as a chord between the asteroid and heavy spacecraft to deflect it. Time is indeed the important factor.


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OfflineVisionary Tools
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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: memes]
    #7923650 - 01/24/08 10:19 AM (16 years, 8 days ago)

I was planning on spending time with my friends in feburary. I may go to London sooner than that.


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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: memes]
    #7923679 - 01/24/08 10:27 AM (16 years, 8 days ago)

Discovery did a documentary, don't remember what it was called, but it postulated what would've happened if the Yucatan impact had instead happened now.


It was kinda sad when that poor stupid fucker hiked all the way through the desert just to find ground zero.


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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: YidakiMan]
    #7923777 - 01/24/08 10:59 AM (16 years, 8 days ago)

So has there been any analysis on the chances of an asteroid actually hitting?


--------------------
...the whole experience is (and is as) a profound piece of knowledge.  It is an indellible experience; it is forever known.  I have known myself in a way I doubt I would have ever occurred except as it did.

Smith, P.  Bull. Menninger Clinic (1959) 23:20-27; p. 27.

...most subjects find the experience valuable, some find it frightening, and many say that is it uniquely lovely.

Osmond, H.  Annals, NY Acad Science (1957) 66:418-434; p.436


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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: badchad]
    #7923780 - 01/24/08 11:01 AM (16 years, 8 days ago)

The 2029 one has a good chance


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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: Asante]
    #7923856 - 01/24/08 11:25 AM (16 years, 8 days ago)

Quote:

Wiccan_Seeker said:
Quote:

omg, let's put our shields up and blast that inanimate, inorganic rock out of the sky that is hell-bent on destroying us and everything we hold dear




You haven't actually read the post have you?

This particular comet isn't the problem, it's how little we do to prevent one from one day actually hitting us.




you didn't understand my post, did you?

i don't understand why you would be so afraid of a comet hitting us and our planet being destroyed, or even a portion of it, considering this is another process/occurrence in life. it's not like you don't risk death getting in a vehicle or going to the store, or doing many other daily activities.

i don't think it's something we should attempt to destroy or wage war against. that'd be like trying to do the same against a tornado/hurricane/powerful lightning storm

edit: not to mention that you stated in your first post that we should devote more funding to scientists watching and planning ways for comet defense


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Edited by demius (01/24/08 11:26 AM)


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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: demiu5]
    #7923884 - 01/24/08 11:40 AM (16 years, 8 days ago)

That's a crazy attitude!

So you don't take medicine when you're sick, or eat when you're hungry?

Why would you passively sit back and accept whatever happens to you w/out taking any effort to affect your own destiny?


--------------------
After one comes, through contact with it's administrators, no longer to cherish greatly the law as a remedy in abuses, then the bottle becomes a sovereign means of direct action.  If you cannot throw it at least you can always drink out of it.  - Ernest Hemingway

If it is life that you feel you are missing I can tell you where to find it.  In the law courts, in business, in government.  There is nothing occurring in the streets. Nothing but a dumbshow composed of the helpless and the impotent.    -Cormac MacCarthy

He who learns must suffer. And even in our sleep pain that cannot forget falls drop by drop upon the heart, and in our own despair, against our will, comes wisdom to us by the awful grace of God.  - Aeschylus


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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: demiu5]
    #7923889 - 01/24/08 11:42 AM (16 years, 8 days ago)

The OP pointed out things like blast radius and tsunamis but I was of the understanding that the real threat lies in the dust/steam cloud that suffocates and blots out the sun.

And whoever is arguing that we should just ignore the asteroid threats deserve to die; i.e. survival of the fittest. If we have the means to prevent the collision, and I argue that we do, then we should prepare and practice those very means.

Also, on a conspiracy theory note, I believe knowledge of these incoming asteroids far pre-dates the dates being bandied in this discussion. The dates being posted are just the ones leaked to the unwashed masses. For consideration I present exhibit A; the mainstream fascination with astroidal ELE that took place oh, 9 years ago. "They" knew but weren't telling because the resulting panic would have caused "them" to lose too much control over the populace.


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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: debianlinux]
    #7923922 - 01/24/08 11:56 AM (16 years, 8 days ago)

Quote:

debianlinux said:
The OP pointed out things like blast radius and tsunamis but I was of the understanding that the real threat lies in the dust/steam cloud that suffocates and blots out the sun.




There are many planet-wide effects that impacts have had that we can see in the historical record. The aforementioned inundation of coastal areas is just one, along with the "Nuclear Winter" type effects on climate.

Add to this the serious geological disruptions caused by massive buckling of the crust, and you have a recipe for disaster on an almost unimaginable scale...


--------------------
After one comes, through contact with it's administrators, no longer to cherish greatly the law as a remedy in abuses, then the bottle becomes a sovereign means of direct action.  If you cannot throw it at least you can always drink out of it.  - Ernest Hemingway

If it is life that you feel you are missing I can tell you where to find it.  In the law courts, in business, in government.  There is nothing occurring in the streets. Nothing but a dumbshow composed of the helpless and the impotent.    -Cormac MacCarthy

He who learns must suffer. And even in our sleep pain that cannot forget falls drop by drop upon the heart, and in our own despair, against our will, comes wisdom to us by the awful grace of God.  - Aeschylus


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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: debianlinux]
    #7923934 - 01/24/08 12:00 PM (16 years, 8 days ago)

And if they try to nuke it fallout will rain upon earth.


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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: Cubie]
    #7923943 - 01/24/08 12:03 PM (16 years, 8 days ago)

Quote:

Cubie said:
And if they try to nuke it fallout will rain upon earth.




This talk of nuking asteroids refers to detonating a warhead far out in space, to change its trajectory. Nuclear fallout would not be a factor.


--------------------
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:heartpump:


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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: WhiskeyClone]
    #7923958 - 01/24/08 12:07 PM (16 years, 8 days ago)

You don't think it would fall to earth like space dust or mushroom spores?


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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: Cubie]
    #7923960 - 01/24/08 12:08 PM (16 years, 8 days ago)

Im not being a smart ass I'm really asking.


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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: Asante]
    #7923981 - 01/24/08 12:16 PM (16 years, 8 days ago)

Honestly, I think an asteroid is the least of our problems right now.. even if it were going to hit Earth, which it's not.


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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: Cubie]
    #7924002 - 01/24/08 12:21 PM (16 years, 8 days ago)

I'm not a nuclear physicist, but everything I've read about it describe affected areas that are less than a few hundred miles from ground zero. I picture these anti-asteroid detonations to be millions of miles into space.


--------------------
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:heartpump:


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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: Cubie]
    #7924018 - 01/24/08 12:24 PM (16 years, 8 days ago)

You are aware that our sun is a colossal hydrogen fusion bomb constantly exploding and hurling radiation into our atmosphere to a degree that makes a laughingstock of a warhead in space, right?

You are in more danger of being poisoned by the elements in the smoke detectors surrounding your daily life than you would be from any fallout from a space nuke. Read up on our early nuclear space explosion experiments on Wikipedia sometime. There are drawbacks to the practice (EMP) but radioactive fallout isn't one of them. The fallout from traditional ground-based explosion is from the irradiated dust drawn into the mushroom cloud.


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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: debianlinux]
    #7924024 - 01/24/08 12:26 PM (16 years, 8 days ago)



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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: debianlinux]
    #7924031 - 01/24/08 12:28 PM (16 years, 8 days ago)

I didn't even think about the sun..wow I feel dumb right now.


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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: Cubie]
    #7924097 - 01/24/08 12:45 PM (16 years, 8 days ago)

Quote:

Cubie said:
I didn't even think about the sun..wow I feel dumb right now.




Only right now?


--------------------
After one comes, through contact with it's administrators, no longer to cherish greatly the law as a remedy in abuses, then the bottle becomes a sovereign means of direct action.  If you cannot throw it at least you can always drink out of it.  - Ernest Hemingway

If it is life that you feel you are missing I can tell you where to find it.  In the law courts, in business, in government.  There is nothing occurring in the streets. Nothing but a dumbshow composed of the helpless and the impotent.    -Cormac MacCarthy

He who learns must suffer. And even in our sleep pain that cannot forget falls drop by drop upon the heart, and in our own despair, against our will, comes wisdom to us by the awful grace of God.  - Aeschylus


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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: Madtowntripper]
    #7924167 - 01/24/08 01:01 PM (16 years, 8 days ago)

Quote:

Madtowntripper said:
That's a crazy attitude!

So you don't take medicine when you're sick, or eat when you're hungry?

Why would you passively sit back and accept whatever happens to you w/out taking any effort to affect your own destiny?




how's that a crazy attitude? when it's time to die, i hope i can be ready to willingly accept it. to me, there is no feasible means of countering that sort of strike...kind of like if someone shot me with a gun from a very far distance, or if a shark had a hold of me. there's little to nothing you can do to fight back in those situations

and no, i don't use prescription or otc medications when i'm sick (although, i do eat more and better foods that can help fight illness), and of course i eat when hungry [enough], but eating, something that needs to be done on a semi regular basis, is completely different than taking precautions for an asteroid destroying us


wiccan:

Quote:

We owe it to the starfishes and the zebras that we prevent this if we can.




this is religious fanatic bullshit. we are not the caretakers of this planet, just another species who also happens to be plaguing it and its other inhabitants (for the most part)

Quote:

4.5 G years of evolution could have been in vain, and what a waste it would be.




are you saying that evolution even has a purpose? what about the evolutions that resulted in the extinction of a species shortly after occurring? was that what they were meant to do?


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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: demiu5]
    #7924201 - 01/24/08 01:13 PM (16 years, 8 days ago)

You don't take any antibiotics after surgery (wisdom teeth come to mind)?

Getting shot from afar from a rifle isn't nearly analogous to getting hit by an asteroid. If you knew a tidal wave was incoming in the next 24 hours would you not move the hell away from the coast?

I wouldn't strongly contend that evolution has a purpose in the sense of a concrete destination. I would argue that evolved extinctions are well within the general purpose of evolution, tho. Evolution is by definition change. Some change is good and some is not. The changes that prove not so good are aborted. Hence, survival of the fittest. Any organism that does not react to a clear and present threat absolutely deserves to die. It has proven itself unfit to continue living.


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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: Asante]
    #7924236 - 01/24/08 01:24 PM (16 years, 8 days ago)

Keep it real though, being wiped out by an asteroid would be a fucking awesome way to die


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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: debianlinux]
    #7924271 - 01/24/08 01:34 PM (16 years, 8 days ago)

Quote:

debianlinux said:
You don't take any antibiotics after surgery (wisdom teeth come to mind)?

Getting shot from afar from a rifle isn't nearly analogous to getting hit by an asteroid. If you knew a tidal wave was incoming in the next 24 hours would you not move the hell away from the coast?

I wouldn't strongly contend that evolution has a purpose in the sense of a concrete destination. I would argue that evolved extinctions are well within the general purpose of evolution, tho. Evolution is by definition change. Some change is good and some is not. The changes that prove not so good are aborted. Hence, survival of the fittest. Any organism that does not react to a clear and present threat absolutely deserves to die. It has proven itself unfit to continue living.




i don't even go to doctors, let alone allow them to give me pills or shots.  now, if it is something completely taken from nature, i'm fine with that, but i wouldn't use any semi-synth or synthetic medications, no

i didn't say rifle, and dead is dead, so what's the difference?

depending on if i had a family, not necessarily.  i've ridden out tornadoes that were visible from where i was standing, and those were quite the experiences of a lifetime.  but i'd never live on the coast to begin with, so.. :smirk:

using good or bad here doesn't really work, as that is just our perspective on it.  living and not living [anymore] works better and leaves no room for judgement.  there are evolutions i'm sure we would consider to be 'bad' but if the organism is still living, then it can't be all that 'bad'


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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: Hyper_Panda_GO]
    #7924333 - 01/24/08 01:54 PM (16 years, 8 days ago)

Quote:

Hyper_Panda_GO said:
Keep it real though, being wiped out by an asteroid would be a fucking awesome way to die



:yesnod:


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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: Annom]
    #7924704 - 01/24/08 03:22 PM (16 years, 8 days ago)

if we are indeed part of the collective conscious, wouldn't it make sense whether we chose to live or die? i think either a. it doesn't hit us and we pass b. we use technology but are still drawn to the material or c. it hits us and energy isn't created nor destroyed.


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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: Asante]
    #7925544 - 01/24/08 06:02 PM (16 years, 8 days ago)

is that the one that could swing back around and hit us?


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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: Asante]
    #7925554 - 01/24/08 06:04 PM (16 years, 8 days ago)

Quote:

Wiccan_Seeker said:
Quote:

For some reason, I am absolutely not worried about asteroids hitting the earth. I think it's a dignified way for humanity to end.




We owe it to the starfishes and the zebras that we prevent this if we can. It wouldn't just be humanity wiped out, but perhaps all life on earth. 4.5 G years of evolution could have been in vain, and what a waste it would be.

Besides, the chance of an asteroid like Tuesday's blammo hitting first is far, far more likely than a 50km Doomsday whopper falling from the skies. One that will only cause mass-suffering, not total extinction. A kind of Nuclear Winter could be the result.

It's not just us humans on the planet, we have all possible lifeforms to defend here. Harmless little critters who's survival depends on us getting our heads out of our asses and taking planetary responsibility.

Maybe mankind is Evolution's answer to being pommeled with Extinction Level Event asteroids every odd hundred million years, ever think of that one? We are a young species in a destructive type of civilization now, but perhaps our role in the grand scheme of things is to preserve life on earth and spread it among the stars.




Somehow that seems a little human-centric to me. That we are the sole protectors of this planet? I doubt that profoundly. The best thing that could happen to this planet is that we all die. Or get a clue :heart:


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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: demiu5]
    #7926120 - 01/24/08 07:47 PM (16 years, 8 days ago)

Quote:

demius said:
i don't even go to doctors, let alone allow them to give me pills or shots.  now, if it is something completely taken from nature, i'm fine with that, but i wouldn't use any semi-synth or synthetic medications, no



the large majority of antibiotics are entirely derived from fungi. hell, the large majority of pharma is entirely derived from entirely organic sources like fricking coral, fish, grains and tree bark.

Quote:


i didn't say rifle, and dead is dead, so what's the difference?



whether or not you made a legitimate attempt to avoid the obvious annihilation headed your way.

Quote:


depending on if i had a family, not necessarily.  i've ridden out tornadoes that were visible from where i was standing, and those were quite the experiences of a lifetime.  but i'd never live on the coast to begin with, so.. :smirk:




I have ridden out tornadoes within line of sight. not quite the same as lack-a-daisically ignoring the large fucking rock slowly (relatively speaking) hurtling towards your head.

Quote:


using good or bad here doesn't really work, as that is just our perspective on it.  living and not living [anymore] works better and leaves no room for judgement.  there are evolutions i'm sure we would consider to be 'bad' but if the organism is still living, then it can't be all that 'bad'



my argument is that if the thing is still alive and reproducing then the evolution was good.


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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: Cubie]
    #7926188 - 01/24/08 07:57 PM (16 years, 8 days ago)

Aye, asteroid deflection... isn't that what the moon does? Fucks the trajectory of meteors and comets up w/ its large gravitational pull? It's strong enough to make the oceans move...


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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: Hyper_Panda_GO]
    #7926425 - 01/24/08 08:29 PM (16 years, 8 days ago)

Quote:

Keep it real though, being wiped out by an asteroid would be a fucking awesome way to die




No! For most people, almost all of them, it would suck to no end. They will not see the impact, all they would notice is that the earths outdoor temperature slowly rises to several hundred degrees and they will all slowly bake to death over the course of several hours. Those who manage to hide underground will live in total darkness for generations and starve and fall pray to infectious diseases. Being wiped out by an asteroid only is cool when you're at ground zero and being swallowed up by the fireball.

With smaller asteroids like the Tuesday special, 4 out of five affected people will have severe burns all over their bodies. A multi-megaton explosion, be it nuclear or an asteroid, first and foremost is an incendiary bomb of apocalyptic proportions. You will be rolling around with burning clothes on a hotplate pavement minutes before the blast wave will arrive to hopefully knock you unconscious.

Much of the energy thats equivalent to 100.000 Hiroshima bombs shall be released as heat, just like with a thermonuclear weapon.

Being wiped out be an asteroid is about as awesome as being locked into an oven which is then turned on.

To everyone who wants humanity to die by asteroid if we can prevent it, hey I guess you're seriously lacking in survivor mentality.

If we manage to deflect a multi-kilometer asteroid, our debt to mother nature is paid in full :thumbup:

And I'm not human-centric here. Life itself speciates itself into all sorts of species. They all have their use. Plants provide oxygen for animals. Flies keep cadaver buildup in check. Lions pick out the weaker and wounded herbivores. To me its not an unreasonable thought that Life gave use our brains to use it for the benefit, not just for ourselves, but for the benefit of Life itself. Once we have a stabilized society, colonizing space would inevitably be next. Spreading life among the stars, terraforming planets and deflecting asteroids would advance the agenda of Life itself, and we're the only species yet who can make this happen, and which dreams of doing that.

All our vices committed in the infancy of our species are a trifle if we can get it done.


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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: memes]
    #7926504 - 01/24/08 08:39 PM (16 years, 8 days ago)

What's Mkm? Million kilometers? We are not going to be affected by this in any way.


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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: demiu5]
    #7926531 - 01/24/08 08:43 PM (16 years, 8 days ago)

I WILL NOT ROLL OVER AND DIE WHEN SOMETHING CAN BE DONE ABOUT IT :crankey:


Quote:

are you saying that evolution even has a purpose?




Evolution is self-serving. You shouldn't think of individual species, you should think of the Life Force on earth that are all the decendants of that one cell in the primordial soup.

The Life Force seeks to colonize every inhabitable nook and cranny, and populate it with the greatest diversity of species it can manage.

If you look at it like this, our dream of colonizing space is directly fed to us by the Life Force. We are a carrier species, intended to take the Life Force to new places to colonize that it could not colonize before.

If we terraform planets, the vast majority of what will live there won't be humans. We'll take ants, worms, rabbits, oak trees, molds, fungi, bacteria, horses, dandelions, lobsters. If we make colonies and later on terraform planets we will inhabit it with all sorts of earth life to create an ecosystem. These species will evolve into beings that are not of this earth, but adapted to their new homeworlds.

The Life Force wouldn't want it any other way. We should stop the whole silly war thing and focus on how we, as a species, can serve the  Life Force to the best of our abilities, just like any other species does.

Quote:

this is religious fanatic bullshit.




No God or Religion is needed for this philosophy. Simple logic will tell you what Life's agenda is, and what we can do to further it. No supernatural stuff needed.


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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: Asante]
    #7926569 - 01/24/08 08:47 PM (16 years, 8 days ago)

Go see Cloverfield and then tell me you wouldn't actually want to protect us from a comet. After reading the effects of a comet hitting earth in W_S's post, that sounds way more like a terrible terrible nightmare than a "cool way to go out".


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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: Asante]
    #7926573 - 01/24/08 08:47 PM (16 years, 8 days ago)

i wonder if other planets were once like earth with people on it and then got destroy by an asteroid.

what is this "black matter" they say holds things in outer space together?  i once heard that a white flash is a bad ghost and a black flash is a good ghost...could the "black matter" good god?  :confused:


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InvisibleAsante
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Re: 2007TU24 -- We are so fucked [Re: EternalCowabunga]
    #7926636 - 01/24/08 08:55 PM (16 years, 8 days ago)

Quote:

What's Mkm? Million kilometers? We are not going to be affected by this in any way.




Yup. This thread isn't about the asteroid itself (which to all likelyness will miss us) but about the fact about how we dropped the ball in only discovering it 110 days, and confirming its trajectory just 56 days, before its possible impact.

We really dropped the ball on that one. With that little time left there would be nothing sane we could do to deflect it, other than sending a nuke and have all religions pray for us.

We need to better fund the scientists who detect them, and get a system in place to get rid of inbound asteroids. Its not the scientists' fault, they are getting dick to work with while we waste our capital on weapons of war rather than spend it on guarding the biggest asset we have: planet earth.


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