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InvisibleLiquidkick
H2O
Registered: 05/03/02
Posts: 2,635
Apple Earnings
    #7911034 - 01/21/08 06:23 PM (16 years, 11 days ago)

Does anyone know when Apple will announce their earnings during the day?

Is it after the market closes?

NEVERMIND: Found it.

Gonna have to ride the crazy waves tomorrow.

Jan 22, 2008 Apple FY 08 First Quarter Results Conference Call - 5:00PM ET
Jan 22, 2008 Apple FY 08 First Quarter Results - 4:00PM ET


Edited by Liquidkick (01/21/08 06:26 PM)


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InvisibleLiquidkick
H2O
Registered: 05/03/02
Posts: 2,635
Re: Apple Earnings [Re: Liquidkick]
    #7916214 - 01/22/08 06:27 PM (16 years, 10 days ago)

OH GOD!

I GOT FUCKED!

Did anyone see that plunge!


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InvisibleLiquidkick
H2O
Registered: 05/03/02
Posts: 2,635
Re: Apple Earnings [Re: Liquidkick]
    #7916793 - 01/22/08 08:01 PM (16 years, 10 days ago)

WOW! the only thing i heard in the conference call that was a bit dismal was iPod numbers flattening. Thats about it.

What the fuck is going on!


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OfflinegeokillsA
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
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Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels Flag
Last seen: 6 hours, 28 minutes
Re: Apple Earnings [Re: Liquidkick]
    #7922023 - 01/23/08 09:36 PM (16 years, 9 days ago)

Heh, that was a pretty awful reaction to the report, eh? 
Unfortunately, Apple was one of my largest positions (I didn't sell any, it just lost so much value that now it's not the largest :wink: ).

The stock got hammered for a few reasons.
  • 1. High multiple stocks carry exceptional risk in a bear market - they are priced for perfection and if they don't beat the quarterly estimates, they will quickly fall out of favor.

  • 2. As you noted, iPod sales were essentially flat year over year, indicating that perhaps Apple is losing its dominant position in that market.  A stock is given a high multiple because of impressive growth, if that growth cannot be accelerated or at least maintained, the multiple people will pay for the stock will shrink.

  • 3.Overall panic in the markets from Monday (overseas selloff) and Tuesday (500 point gap lower opening on the Dow), caught Apple's soft quarter in the midst of a global selloff.  Thus, the downward move was exaggerated.

  • 4.  Future guidance came in below the average analyst estimate.


The stock did bounce off of its lows today, down over 20% at one point, to close down 10.6%.  It is likely that the stock will tread water for a while here.  Both downside and upside risk are fairly limited until we get new numbers and guidance which will show how soft consumer spending really has become, and whether or not Apple can continue to grow at a steady pace.  Thankfully, I've been in the stock for over a year and had already removed my basis, so at this point I'm just playing with the houses money, and I will continue to hold on, as I believe Apple is a dominant player in the tech gadget space and can deliver consistent future growth.  We just need to wait out this bear market.

Remember not to sell on the down days.  There will be bounces.  If you sold when Apple was down around $126, I'd bet you feel pretty bad.  If anything, that was the time to be buying.

Rather than commit more capital to my position in Apple (as I already own enough tech), I added to my positions in Freeport McMoran (FCX) and Altria (MO) mid-day at the lows of the session.  Sold half of my FCX at the end of the day, up $5 from where I picked it up, and am holding my Altria for their solid 4%+ dividend and the breakup plans they will be announcing soon to unlock value from their international and domestic divisions.

Today was a day to do some shopping, the market was on sale!  I only wish I'd bought more than I did, but the overall treachery from the past few weeks had me very timid and hoarding cash (I'm up to 36% cash at the moment).

I have made up my buy list, and if we retest the lows, I will start picking at the following names:
  • ConnocoPhillips (COP) @ $68-70
  • Freeport McMoran (FCX) @ $65-70
  • NYSE Euronext (NYX) @ $70
  • Proctor & Gamble (PG) @ $63


I also intend to watch the financials tomorrow closely, with a mind to start a position in Hudson City Bank (HCBK), and perhaps a short term trade in Ambak (ABK), E Trade (ETFC), and/or MBIA (MBI).  It seems that this worst hit sector is catching some heavy momentum right here in the midst of the Federal Reserve cuts (another one likely at the end of the month).  If the government bails out MBI or ABK, you can bet they will see HUGE moves (they already have, in fact).  Very careful with these though, other than HCBK, I don't think I'm in for the long-term on the financials.


--------------------

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··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


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OfflineSeussA
Error: divide byzero


Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 04/27/01
Posts: 23,480
Loc: Caribbean
Last seen: 2 months, 20 days
Re: Apple Earnings [Re: geokills]
    #7923153 - 01/24/08 05:39 AM (16 years, 8 days ago)

> iPod sales were essentially flat year over year, indicating that perhaps Apple is losing its dominant position in that market

I sell a lot of iPods in the Latin America market, and Apple really @#$%ed up towards the end of last year. They wouldn't ship any of their newer style iPods into the LA region because they didn't want to undercut their US inventory. The US didn't sell well, and the LA market didn't have any to sell. Now that the Christmas season is over, Apple is trying to dump their overstock from the US into the LA region. Gee, thanks.

There are a lot of very frustrated people in Apple. The company is really hurting itself with their business model. They have Apple employees that sell computers through Apple that compete against Apple Stores, owned by Apple, that compete against Apple Authorized resellers, owned by non-Apple folks. It is silly that Apple is literally competing against itself.


--------------------
Just another spore in the wind.


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InvisibleLiquidkick
H2O
Registered: 05/03/02
Posts: 2,635
Re: Apple Earnings [Re: Seuss]
    #7940416 - 01/27/08 01:53 PM (16 years, 5 days ago)

well with that type of information, i see apple going down hill.

I am gonna wait for a gain and sell that off.

I realized something the other day. I simply can't make any money right now. I need like 10k to do anything worth while.

So i will be playing options from now on.

-LK


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