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Invisiblezorbman
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Is the U.S. headed into a recession?
    #7868875 - 01/12/08 12:24 PM (16 years, 20 days ago)

Note: I am opening this thread for discussion of the current economic situation in the U.S. as per Phred's suggestion.
Is the U.S. in a recession?
Users may choose only one (46 total votes)
Yes.
-
21 46%
Technically speaking, no. Realistically, yes.
-
11 24%
No.
-
6 13%
I am Sir TripsaLot.
-
8 17%
Votes accepted from (01/12/08 12:23 PM) to (01/31/08 12:23 PM)
You must vote before you can view the results of this poll.


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“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: zorbman]
    #7868984 - 01/12/08 12:55 PM (16 years, 20 days ago)

What is this "Realistically" recession you speak of, Son of Swami? By this do you mean, "Will I experience negative growth?"


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: zappaisgod]
    #7869026 - 01/12/08 01:05 PM (16 years, 20 days ago)

Realistically, as in commonly understood.

There is theory and there is reality. A Harvard economist can tell everyone everything is fine until he's blue in the face, but real people on the ground may be experiencing a different reality. Also, keep in mind that one section of the country may be in recession while another remains relatively unscathed for the moment.


--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: zorbman]
    #7869040 - 01/12/08 01:09 PM (16 years, 20 days ago)

Quote:

zorbman said:
Realistically, as in commonly understood.

There is theory and there is reality. A Harvard economist can tell everyone everything is fine until he's blue in the face, but real people on the ground may be experiencing a different reality. Also, keep in mind that one section of the country may be in recession while another remains relatively unscathed for the moment.




So, in other words it means whatever you say it means. Does that make you the Red Queen or the White Queen? Forgive me, I forget my Carroll, it's been a long time since I went down the rabbit hole.


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InvisibleDieCommie


Registered: 12/11/03
Posts: 29,258
Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: zorbman]
    #7869047 - 01/12/08 01:11 PM (16 years, 20 days ago)

What if its the other way around... What if the 'Harvard economist' is saying that the economy is bad, but real people on the ground are getting along just fine?


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OfflineCubie
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: DieCommie]
    #7869086 - 01/12/08 01:27 PM (16 years, 20 days ago)

u guys will turn a triangle into a frying pan....
we are going into recession. negitive growth for 2 quarters or semesters or what not. there actuley using inflation and forign spending to bump us up outta recession. will it work who knows..


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: zappaisgod]
    #7869109 - 01/12/08 01:36 PM (16 years, 20 days ago)

Quote:

So, in other words it means whatever you say it means.




Not at all. There is a degree of subjectivity, however. It is not as precise as some make it out to be. If you disagree, then you can vote "no". :shrug:


--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: zorbman]
    #7869607 - 01/12/08 04:14 PM (16 years, 20 days ago)

I voted TripsaLot


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: zappaisgod]
    #7869769 - 01/12/08 04:52 PM (16 years, 20 days ago)

Oh.


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“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


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InvisibleLuddite
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: zorbman]
    #7869916 - 01/12/08 05:27 PM (16 years, 20 days ago)

The voting doesn't work through my proxy.


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InvisibleEvolving
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: zorbman]
    #7869936 - 01/12/08 05:31 PM (16 years, 20 days ago)

Economic metrics tell us after a recession is already underway. The dollar is definitely tanking. Food and fuel prices have been rising for quite some time and wages are not keeping up with monetary inflation. Do not look for government statistics to give you a real indication, they are designed to serve certain agendas whilst giving the appearance of objective data.


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To call humans 'rational beings' does injustice to the term, 'rational.'  Humans are capable of rational thought, but it is not their essence.  Humans are animals, beasts with complex brains.  Humans, more often than not, utilize their cerebrum to rationalize what their primal instincts, their preconceived notions, and their emotional desires have presented as goals - humans are rationalizing beings.


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: Luddite]
    #7869964 - 01/12/08 05:36 PM (16 years, 20 days ago)

Quote:

Luddite said:
The voting doesn't work through my proxy.




You can just post your vote or PM it to me and I will adjust the final percentages accordingly when voting is complete.


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“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


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OfflinePhred
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: Evolving]
    #7870043 - 01/12/08 05:54 PM (16 years, 20 days ago)

Holy crap!

Evolving.... long time no see. How the fuck are ya, anyway?





Phred


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InvisibleEvolving
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: Phred]
    #7870092 - 01/12/08 06:07 PM (16 years, 20 days ago)

I'm out of weed, out of shrooms and only have three beers left. How do do you think I am? ... grumpy!


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To call humans 'rational beings' does injustice to the term, 'rational.'  Humans are capable of rational thought, but it is not their essence.  Humans are animals, beasts with complex brains.  Humans, more often than not, utilize their cerebrum to rationalize what their primal instincts, their preconceived notions, and their emotional desires have presented as goals - humans are rationalizing beings.


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InvisibleAnnapurna1
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: zorbman]
    #7873449 - 01/13/08 01:52 PM (16 years, 19 days ago)

my answer is that poverty (as measured by medians) will continue to spread even as GDP growth continues to accelerate (whether or not at a slower pace)...if that constitutes a recession..then we have been in a recession since king george took over...under this policy..GDP growth only measures increasing inequality and is fallacious at best as an economic indicator...



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"anchor blocks counteract the process of pontiprobation..while omalean globes regulize the pressure"...


Edited by Annapurna1 (01/13/08 01:55 PM)


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: Annapurna1]
    #7877511 - 01/14/08 09:31 AM (16 years, 18 days ago)

66% of those responding to this poll believe the U.S. is in recession, 19% believe it is not , and 15% believe they are Sir Tripsalot. They probably also believe we are not in a recession as that is equally delusional. Or perhaps Tripsalot is a quadruplet?


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“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


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InvisibleIcelander
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: zappaisgod]
    #7877695 - 01/14/08 10:32 AM (16 years, 18 days ago)

it's been a long time since I went down the rabbit hole.

I think it would do you a lot of good.:mushroom2::mushroom2::mushroom2::mushroom2::mushroom2::mushroom2:grams


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"Don't believe everything you think". -Anom.

" All that lives was born to die"-Anom.

With much wisdom comes much sorrow,
The more knowledge, the more grief.
Ecclesiastes circa 350 BC


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OfflineFloop
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: Icelander]
    #7878768 - 01/14/08 03:23 PM (16 years, 18 days ago)

Im going for a serious reaction here.

The US has a large trade deficit. This is because countries like China who dont have a stong consumer base depend on the US to import their goods so they can build up their industries.
With the result that the US is importing way more than they exporting. The US has the money to do this because countries like China buy large amount of dollars to make sure the dollar is worth enough to buy all those goods. This in turn leads to countries having higher and higher percentages of their money in dollars.
Obviously this can't go on indefinitely. And right now many countries think the risk of having such a high percentage of their money in dollars is a too big. So they're not willing to finance the US anymore. This leads to a weaker dollar, inflation and thus less consuming and this in turn leads to a slowing down or recession of the economy.


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"The finest emotion of which we are capable is the mystic emotion. Herein lies the germ of all art and all true science. Anyone to whom this feeling is alien, who is no longer capable of wonderment and lives in a state of fear is a dead man. To know that what is impenatrable for us really exists and manifests itself as the highest wisdom and the most radiant beauty, whose gross forms alone are intelligible to our poor faculties - this knowledge, this feeling ... that is the core of the true religious sent iment. In this sense, and in this sense alone, I rank myself amoung profoundly religious men."
-Albert Einstein


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: Floop]
    #7878866 - 01/14/08 03:46 PM (16 years, 18 days ago)

Very astute.

The U.S. economy is fueled by debt. The credit cycle is ending along with the economic good times it created.

Traders, investors, and owners of dollars realize that they are holding onto a depreciating asset. Common sense says this situation cannot last.

The Federal Reserve is in between a rock and a hard place. It can respond by raising interest rates to support the dollar but that will tank the economy. Interest rates are at historic lows. They can instead lower them further to provide debt for illusory economic growth but there is only so far they can go in that direction. This move will tank the dollar which will crash the global monetary system.

They have painted themselves into a corner.

I have read some of Fed Chairman Bernanke's past statements and I believe he will choose the path of printing more money and allow the dollar to free fall. This path ends in a hyperinflationary depression which will make the Great Depression look like a picnic.


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“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


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InvisibleLuddite
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: zorbman]
    #7878999 - 01/14/08 04:08 PM (16 years, 18 days ago)

You smoke a lot of pot, don't you. Don't let your fantasies give you an excuse to use more drugs.


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OfflineSyle
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: zorbman]
    #7879120 - 01/14/08 04:38 PM (16 years, 18 days ago)

Quote:

zorbman said:
Very astute.

The U.S. economy is fueled by debt. The credit cycle is ending along with the economic good times it created.

Traders, investors, and owners of dollars realize that they are holding onto a depreciating asset. Common sense says this situation cannot last.

The Federal Reserve is in between a rock and a hard place. It can respond by raising interest rates to support the dollar but that will tank the economy. Interest rates are at historic lows. They can instead lower them further to provide debt for illusory economic growth but there is only so far they can go in that direction. This move will tank the dollar which will crash the global monetary system.

They have painted themselves into a corner.

I have read some of Fed Chairman Bernanke's past statements and I believe he will choose the path of printing more money and allow the dollar to free fall. This path ends in a hyperinflationary depression which will make the Great Depression look like a picnic.




So what do we do now? Your post scared me in a way  :frown:


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https://kenaisigh.bandcamp.com/ <- Just completed the 2021 RPM challenge for February - An EP in one month (5 songs or 20 minutes). Check it out!


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OfflineThe_Red_Crayon
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: zorbman]
    #7879202 - 01/14/08 04:52 PM (16 years, 18 days ago)

The question is, is if the dollar tanks then arent investors going to purchase the currency, everytime the dollar dips it seems like investors buy up the cheap currency in hopes it will go up.

Second thing is, If the dollar does drop, the price of foreign goods will inextricably go up, therefore if one couldnt afford foreign goods then a manufacturing base would have to pop up to meet more localized demands.This localized manufacturing in turn generates a job base.

The problem with this economic slide we are in is because people are widely living beyond their means, and greed by lots of people got us into this mess, and those same people want uncle sam to buy us out of this mess. Wait till the credit markets start taking hits.


Edited by The_Red_Crayon (01/14/08 04:53 PM)


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: Syle]
    #7879337 - 01/14/08 05:16 PM (16 years, 18 days ago)

So what do we do now?

Unfortunately, as a country there are not many options available at this point. The best we can hope for is a VERY bumpy landing instead of a crash. You can think of a recession as a the economy "catching a cold". In a cold your body sometimes raises your internal temperature to kill the bugs. After a period of unpleasantness things slowly return to normal.

But if you prevent the fever you only prolong your cold and make it more severe.

As strange as it may sound, we need to go ahead and let this thing happen. Easy credit has created a series of bubbles in the economy. First it was tech stocks (remember the dot.com boom?) in the late 90s. Today it is real estate. POP!

All that easy money was looking for a home. The Fed can create money, they cannot always control where it goes. What we get are bubbles.

So all the misallocations of capital and bad loans need to come off the books so we can work from a sound basis again. The bugs need to die. If we pump more money into the system we will only make the inevitable recession that much worse.

Unfortunately, the fed has taken the course of pumping even more money in which is why the dollar is tanking. In spite of what you may sometimes hear to the contrary- that ain't a good thing.

On a personal basis you have more options available: invest in silver and gold (in that order), get or stay out of debt and work towards self-sufficiency. And always remember your best assets are internal. Keep your head about you because every nutjob imaginable will be coming out of the woodwork.


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“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: Icelander]
    #7879372 - 01/14/08 05:24 PM (16 years, 18 days ago)

Quote:

Icelander said:
it's been a long time since I went down the rabbit hole.

I think it would do you a lot of good.:mushroom2::mushroom2::mushroom2::mushroom2::mushroom2::mushroom2:grams




Soon.


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: The_Red_Crayon]
    #7879445 - 01/14/08 05:41 PM (16 years, 18 days ago)

Quote:

The question is, is if the dollar tanks then arent investors going to purchase the currency, everytime the dollar dips it seems like investors buy up the cheap currency in hopes it will go up.




Oh yes. There are buyers and our government has partners who help in that regard. Its not in any government's interests to see the dollar tank and they will prop it up as long as possible. At some point they will be like the little Dutch boy with fingers in the dam to plug the holes that keep popping up. Sooner or later you run out of digits.

Quote:

Second thing is, If the dollar does drop, the price of foreign goods will inextricably go up, therefore if one couldnt afford foreign goods then a manufacturing base would have to pop up to meet more localized demands.This localized manufacturing in turn generates a job base.




A couple of points:

Its been 30 years since the U.S. last had a trade surplus. A low dollar is not going to bring it back anytime soon. Last year the trade deficit went up bigtime in the face of a falling dollar, exactly the opposite of what some would have predicted. People recite the low dollar = good mantra to make themselves feel better. Ignorance is bliss.

Secondly, we also import a lot of stuff to manufacture our exports, so that cost will have to be added in.

Wait till the credit markets start taking hits

Yeah, the bond market will be the last bubble to pop. If you hear about the bond market sliding..start making your way for the exits before the herd begins galloping..


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“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: zorbman]
    #7892618 - 01/17/08 11:34 AM (16 years, 15 days ago)

Home construction drops 25 percent

The prolonged slump in housing pushed construction of new homes in 2007 down by the largest amount in 27 years with the expectation that the downturn has further to go.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080117/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy_156


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“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


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Offlinelonestar2004
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: zorbman]
    #7892755 - 01/17/08 12:10 PM (16 years, 15 days ago)

when does this "recession" start? when and if it starts will i be able to find parking spaces at the mall? and will there be no more long lines at the cash register!!!

THAT WOULD BE GREAT!


i bet i will not even FEEL this so called recession...


wait i feel PAIN!!! and its in my wallet....Raise taxes to Stop the so called Recession....


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America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

Barack Obama


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OfflineCubie
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: lonestar2004]
    #7892790 - 01/17/08 12:18 PM (16 years, 15 days ago)

well when you go to the mall and it costs a grand for a stick of gum have fun :tongue:

im broke enough. no more taxes please


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Invisiblecarbonhoots
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: Cubie]
    #7894825 - 01/17/08 08:30 PM (16 years, 15 days ago)

how bout taxes on people and corporations and banks who are far from broke and have more money than they can ever spend?


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  -I'd rather have a frontal lobotomy than a bottle in front of me

CANADIAN CENTER FOR POLICY ALTERNATIVES


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: carbonhoots]
    #7898470 - 01/18/08 05:54 PM (16 years, 14 days ago)

Banks are corporations and the corporate tax rate in the US is actually higher than that in most other developed countries. So let's just get it right out in the open that you want the government to forcibly take money from successful, hard working people and give it whatever losers you choose. No thanks.


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: zappaisgod]
    #7898495 - 01/18/08 06:02 PM (16 years, 14 days ago)

Quote:

the corporate tax rate in the US is actually higher than that in most other developed countries.




Second highest among industrialized countries. (Japan being the highest).


http://www.taxanalysts.com/www/features.nsf/Articles/FE9DCA58402875D7852573680064DA50?OpenDocument


--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: zorbman]
    #7898502 - 01/18/08 06:03 PM (16 years, 14 days ago)

Thank you. I was lazy.


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: zorbman]
    #7909808 - 01/21/08 02:11 PM (16 years, 11 days ago)



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“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


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InvisibleSoY
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: zorbman]
    #7910065 - 01/21/08 03:21 PM (16 years, 11 days ago)

I think "David the Patriot" needs to retake high school English...


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"The choiceless truth of who you are is revealed to be permanently here permeating everything. Not a thing and not separate from anything."--Gaganji
"Yesterday is but today's memory and tomorrow is today's dream."
"My karma ran over my dogma!"


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: zorbman]
    #7914348 - 01/22/08 11:44 AM (16 years, 10 days ago)

As predicted:

Fed slashes rates in emergency meeting

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The Federal Reserve slashed two key interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point Tuesday following an unscheduled meeting, citing continued concerns about a weakening economy and turmoil in the financial markets.

The Fed lowered its federal funds rate, which impacts how much consumers pay on credit card debt, home equity lines of credit and auto loans, to 3.5 percent from 4.25 percent.

The rate cut came more than a week before the Fed's next regularly scheduled meeting, a two day session that concludes on Jan. 30. Some market observers think the Fed will cut rates again at this meeting.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/22/news/economy/fed_rates/index.htm?cnn=yes

Chasing bad money with more bad money.

They just don't get it.

This is like paying the interest on your credit cards by borrowing from other credit cards. Keep digging that hole deeper..


--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


Edited by zorbman (01/22/08 11:50 AM)


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Offlinegluke bastid
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: lonestar2004]
    #7914359 - 01/22/08 11:47 AM (16 years, 10 days ago)

Quote:

lonestar2004 said:
when does this "recession" start?




Today, apparently.


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:hst:
Society in every form is a blessing,
but government at its best is but a necessary evil
 
- Thomas Paine


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Offlinelonestar2004
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: gluke bastid]
    #7914542 - 01/22/08 12:45 PM (16 years, 10 days ago)

still long lines at the mall.....


--------------------
America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

Barack Obama


Edited by lonestar2004 (01/22/08 12:46 PM)


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: lonestar2004]
    #7914560 - 01/22/08 12:49 PM (16 years, 10 days ago)

Sales Tumble, Fanning US Recession Fears
Tuesday January 15, 2008

Frugal shoppers cut back on their spending at the nation's retailers by 0.4 percent in December, wrapping up the weakest sales year since 2002, in a gloomy report that fanned fears of a recession.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080115/retail_sales.html


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“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


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InvisibleDieCommie


Registered: 12/11/03
Posts: 29,258
Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: zorbman]
    #7914566 - 01/22/08 12:51 PM (16 years, 10 days ago)

Wow, 0.4% is a tumble? That seems off by an order of magnitude or so...


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: DieCommie]
    #7914577 - 01/22/08 12:53 PM (16 years, 10 days ago)

It doesn't take much. Sales had been forecast to dip by only 0.1 percent.

The key phrase in the article is "weakest sales year since 2002".
(The date of the last recession).

Another key point: "wholesale prices..were up 6.3 percent for all of 2007, the biggest annual gain in 26 years"

The trend should be clear by now. This is a weak economy and it's only getting weaker.


--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


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InvisibleDieCommie


Registered: 12/11/03
Posts: 29,258
Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: zorbman]
    #7914605 - 01/22/08 01:00 PM (16 years, 10 days ago)

I agree that it is weak by recent american standards. But by global and historical standards its great, and those are the best standards to use if you want the most perspective. I can still afford a loaf of bread for only a buck.


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: DieCommie]
    #7914626 - 01/22/08 01:05 PM (16 years, 10 days ago)

Sure, on the surface it seems okay now. But look deeper.

Quote:

I can still afford a loaf of bread for only a buck.




You can also shop and walk around outside just hours before a hurricane strikes. But if you look at your instruments and the trends you know to take shelter.

Predicting tomorrow as a linear extension of today would be mistake.
Think in terms of cycles.

When I have more time I will post more economic data exposing the fault lines underneath the economy. This economy is built on sand and a Cat 5 hurricane is headed this way.


--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


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InvisibleDieCommie


Registered: 12/11/03
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: zorbman]
    #7914967 - 01/22/08 02:38 PM (16 years, 10 days ago)

Yes I know about cycles... I dont want to be a dick, but I was doing fourier analysis on economic data today in class. There are many nested harmonics (cycles) in stocks for example (52 years down to a few months).

If you are predicting complete economic collapse (your 'hurricane'), then you arnt doing that with cycles.


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Offlinelonestar2004
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: zorbman]
    #7915144 - 01/22/08 03:16 PM (16 years, 10 days ago)

That 3/4 point cut was perfectly timed!!!
The world can’t sell off the dollar, because it’s too busy buying them in their own sorry panics...And it seemed to hit the other countries worse than of ours.


So in the end we get our washout, and we end up on top. As usual.:thumbup:


--------------------
America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

Barack Obama


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: DieCommie]
    #7915210 - 01/22/08 03:30 PM (16 years, 10 days ago)

I was doing fourier analysis on economic data today in class.

Good for you. You are well ahead of the pack in that case.

Quote:

If you are predicting complete economic collapse (your 'hurricane'), then you arnt doing that with cycles.




For purposes of this thread I want to focus on the recession, but yes I do believe we are headed for an eventual economic meltdown based upon cycles and fundamentals.

You many know that some economists partial to cycle theory rely upon the Kondratieff cycle or "wave" which lasts approximately 50-54 years. According to that theory we are entering Kondratieff winter now.

http://www.kwaves.com/kond_overview.htm

I am more partial to a socio-economic model which the Romans used to measure time. It is known as the saeculum- a period of 80 years roughly equivalent to the length of a human lifetime. For those unfamiliar with it, take a look at the left-hand seal on the back of a one-dollar bill. Above the pyramid reads "annuit coeptis" (God smiled on the creation) which is taken directly from Virgil's praise of the Augustan saeculum aureum.

Also the inscription beneath the pyramid, "novus ordo seclorum" (the new order of the centuries). When the founders designed the Great Seal they put the saeculum right on the money.

So the saeculum does a full revolution in about 80 years and is further divided into four generations or seasons of 20 years each. According to this theory we are also entering "winter".

Every season or roughly 20 years there is a shift in the national mood. Recent examples:

2001-  9/11
1981- Reagan revolution, severe recession, cold war tensions at max
1961- JFK elected..torch passed to new generation, start of 60's turmoil

Approximately every 80 years there is a major crisis which threatens the very survival of our nation..

2001- Kicked off by 9/11..
1941- Beginning of WWII
1861- Beginning of Civil War
1781- Revolutionary War

How bad will it be? No one knows, but based upon history it will be bad and accompanied by a major war. Given modern weaponry and the global nature of our civilization it will likely be severe.

Each succeeding generation perpetuates the cycle and when in power ensures the birth of the next crisis since they have no living memory of the last one.

Those who do not remember history are condemned to repeat it..

It is an interesting time to be alive. :thumbup:


--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: lonestar2004]
    #7915242 - 01/22/08 03:36 PM (16 years, 10 days ago)

Quote:

lonestar2004 said:
That 3/4 point cut was perfectly timed!!!
The world can’t sell off the dollar, because it’s too busy buying them in their own sorry panics...And it seemed to hit the other countries worse than of ours.


So in the end we get our washout, and we end up on top. As usual.:thumbup:




Keep on telling yourself that.


--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


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Offlinelonestar2004
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: zorbman]
    #7915282 - 01/22/08 03:46 PM (16 years, 10 days ago)

Zorbman said:

"Every season or roughly 20 years there is a shift in the national mood. Recent examples:

2001- 9/11
1981- Reagan revolution, severe recession, cold war tensions at max
1961- JFK elected..torch passed to new generation, start of 60's turmoil"

:rolleyes:


even as a kid i remember Jimmy Carters economy.

Jimmy Carter left office with the American economy sinking fast - soaring unemployment, double-digit inflation, double-digit interest rates, a contracting economy, and a sense that America's best days might be behind her."


--------------------
America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

Barack Obama


Edited by lonestar2004 (01/22/08 03:46 PM)


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: lonestar2004]
    #7915297 - 01/22/08 03:49 PM (16 years, 10 days ago)

Note that I did not label it the "Reagan" recession. Obviously, upon taking office in 1981 he inherited a terrible economy from Carter just as Bush's successor will inherit a terrible economy from him.

And so it goes..


--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


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Offlinelonestar2004
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: lonestar2004]
    #7915298 - 01/22/08 03:49 PM (16 years, 10 days ago)

With interest rates this low its time to do some CONSUMIN!

i think i want to buy a Nintendo WII.:grin:


--------------------
America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

Barack Obama


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Posts: 81,741
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: lonestar2004]
    #7915328 - 01/22/08 03:56 PM (16 years, 10 days ago)

Buy two.


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