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DieCommie


Registered: 12/11/03
Posts: 29,258
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: zorbman]
#7914605 - 01/22/08 01:00 PM (16 years, 10 days ago) |
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I agree that it is weak by recent american standards. But by global and historical standards its great, and those are the best standards to use if you want the most perspective. I can still afford a loaf of bread for only a buck.
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zorbman
blarrr



Registered: 06/04/04
Posts: 5,952
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: DieCommie]
#7914626 - 01/22/08 01:05 PM (16 years, 10 days ago) |
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Sure, on the surface it seems okay now. But look deeper.
Quote:
I can still afford a loaf of bread for only a buck.
You can also shop and walk around outside just hours before a hurricane strikes. But if you look at your instruments and the trends you know to take shelter.
Predicting tomorrow as a linear extension of today would be mistake. Think in terms of cycles.
When I have more time I will post more economic data exposing the fault lines underneath the economy. This economy is built on sand and a Cat 5 hurricane is headed this way.
-------------------- “The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.” -- Rudiger Dornbusch
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DieCommie


Registered: 12/11/03
Posts: 29,258
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: zorbman]
#7914967 - 01/22/08 02:38 PM (16 years, 10 days ago) |
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Yes I know about cycles... I dont want to be a dick, but I was doing fourier analysis on economic data today in class. There are many nested harmonics (cycles) in stocks for example (52 years down to a few months).
If you are predicting complete economic collapse (your 'hurricane'), then you arnt doing that with cycles.
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lonestar2004
Live to party,work to affordit.


Registered: 10/03/04
Posts: 8,978
Loc: South Texas
Last seen: 12 years, 9 months
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: zorbman]
#7915144 - 01/22/08 03:16 PM (16 years, 10 days ago) |
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That 3/4 point cut was perfectly timed!!! The world can’t sell off the dollar, because it’s too busy buying them in their own sorry panics...And it seemed to hit the other countries worse than of ours.
So in the end we get our washout, and we end up on top. As usual.
-------------------- America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure" We have "reckless fiscal policies" America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better Barack Obama
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zorbman
blarrr



Registered: 06/04/04
Posts: 5,952
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: DieCommie]
#7915210 - 01/22/08 03:30 PM (16 years, 10 days ago) |
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I was doing fourier analysis on economic data today in class.
Good for you. You are well ahead of the pack in that case.
Quote:
If you are predicting complete economic collapse (your 'hurricane'), then you arnt doing that with cycles.
For purposes of this thread I want to focus on the recession, but yes I do believe we are headed for an eventual economic meltdown based upon cycles and fundamentals.
You many know that some economists partial to cycle theory rely upon the Kondratieff cycle or "wave" which lasts approximately 50-54 years. According to that theory we are entering Kondratieff winter now.
http://www.kwaves.com/kond_overview.htm
I am more partial to a socio-economic model which the Romans used to measure time. It is known as the saeculum- a period of 80 years roughly equivalent to the length of a human lifetime. For those unfamiliar with it, take a look at the left-hand seal on the back of a one-dollar bill. Above the pyramid reads "annuit coeptis" (God smiled on the creation) which is taken directly from Virgil's praise of the Augustan saeculum aureum.
Also the inscription beneath the pyramid, "novus ordo seclorum" (the new order of the centuries). When the founders designed the Great Seal they put the saeculum right on the money.
So the saeculum does a full revolution in about 80 years and is further divided into four generations or seasons of 20 years each. According to this theory we are also entering "winter".
Every season or roughly 20 years there is a shift in the national mood. Recent examples:
2001- 9/11 1981- Reagan revolution, severe recession, cold war tensions at max 1961- JFK elected..torch passed to new generation, start of 60's turmoil
Approximately every 80 years there is a major crisis which threatens the very survival of our nation..
2001- Kicked off by 9/11.. 1941- Beginning of WWII 1861- Beginning of Civil War 1781- Revolutionary War
How bad will it be? No one knows, but based upon history it will be bad and accompanied by a major war. Given modern weaponry and the global nature of our civilization it will likely be severe.
Each succeeding generation perpetuates the cycle and when in power ensures the birth of the next crisis since they have no living memory of the last one.
Those who do not remember history are condemned to repeat it..
It is an interesting time to be alive.
-------------------- “The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.” -- Rudiger Dornbusch
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zorbman
blarrr



Registered: 06/04/04
Posts: 5,952
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: lonestar2004]
#7915242 - 01/22/08 03:36 PM (16 years, 10 days ago) |
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Quote:
lonestar2004 said: That 3/4 point cut was perfectly timed!!! The world can’t sell off the dollar, because it’s too busy buying them in their own sorry panics...And it seemed to hit the other countries worse than of ours.
So in the end we get our washout, and we end up on top. As usual.
Keep on telling yourself that.
-------------------- “The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.” -- Rudiger Dornbusch
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lonestar2004
Live to party,work to affordit.


Registered: 10/03/04
Posts: 8,978
Loc: South Texas
Last seen: 12 years, 9 months
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: zorbman]
#7915282 - 01/22/08 03:46 PM (16 years, 10 days ago) |
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Zorbman said:
"Every season or roughly 20 years there is a shift in the national mood. Recent examples:
2001- 9/11 1981- Reagan revolution, severe recession, cold war tensions at max 1961- JFK elected..torch passed to new generation, start of 60's turmoil"

even as a kid i remember Jimmy Carters economy.
Jimmy Carter left office with the American economy sinking fast - soaring unemployment, double-digit inflation, double-digit interest rates, a contracting economy, and a sense that America's best days might be behind her."
-------------------- America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure" We have "reckless fiscal policies" America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better Barack Obama
Edited by lonestar2004 (01/22/08 03:46 PM)
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zorbman
blarrr



Registered: 06/04/04
Posts: 5,952
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: lonestar2004]
#7915297 - 01/22/08 03:49 PM (16 years, 10 days ago) |
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Note that I did not label it the "Reagan" recession. Obviously, upon taking office in 1981 he inherited a terrible economy from Carter just as Bush's successor will inherit a terrible economy from him.
And so it goes..
-------------------- “The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.” -- Rudiger Dornbusch
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lonestar2004
Live to party,work to affordit.


Registered: 10/03/04
Posts: 8,978
Loc: South Texas
Last seen: 12 years, 9 months
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: lonestar2004]
#7915298 - 01/22/08 03:49 PM (16 years, 10 days ago) |
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With interest rates this low its time to do some CONSUMIN!
i think i want to buy a Nintendo WII.
-------------------- America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure" We have "reckless fiscal policies" America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better Barack Obama
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zappaisgod
horrid asshole


Registered: 02/11/04
Posts: 81,741
Loc: Fractallife's gym
Last seen: 7 years, 7 months
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: lonestar2004]
#7915328 - 01/22/08 03:56 PM (16 years, 10 days ago) |
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Buy two.
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