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zorbman
blarrr



Registered: 06/04/04
Posts: 5,952
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Is the U.S. headed into a recession?
#7868875 - 01/12/08 12:24 PM (16 years, 20 days ago) |
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Note: I am opening this thread for discussion of the current economic situation in the U.S. as per Phred's suggestion.
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Yes.
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Technically speaking, no. Realistically, yes.
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No.
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I am Sir TripsaLot.
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Votes accepted from (01/12/08 12:23 PM) to (01/31/08 12:23 PM) You must vote before you can view the results of this poll.
-------------------- “The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.” -- Rudiger Dornbusch
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zappaisgod
horrid asshole


Registered: 02/11/04
Posts: 81,741
Loc: Fractallife's gym
Last seen: 7 years, 7 months
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: zorbman]
#7868984 - 01/12/08 12:55 PM (16 years, 20 days ago) |
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What is this "Realistically" recession you speak of, Son of Swami? By this do you mean, "Will I experience negative growth?"
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zorbman
blarrr



Registered: 06/04/04
Posts: 5,952
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: zappaisgod]
#7869026 - 01/12/08 01:05 PM (16 years, 20 days ago) |
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Realistically, as in commonly understood.
There is theory and there is reality. A Harvard economist can tell everyone everything is fine until he's blue in the face, but real people on the ground may be experiencing a different reality. Also, keep in mind that one section of the country may be in recession while another remains relatively unscathed for the moment.
-------------------- “The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.” -- Rudiger Dornbusch
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zappaisgod
horrid asshole


Registered: 02/11/04
Posts: 81,741
Loc: Fractallife's gym
Last seen: 7 years, 7 months
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: zorbman]
#7869040 - 01/12/08 01:09 PM (16 years, 20 days ago) |
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Quote:
zorbman said: Realistically, as in commonly understood.
There is theory and there is reality. A Harvard economist can tell everyone everything is fine until he's blue in the face, but real people on the ground may be experiencing a different reality. Also, keep in mind that one section of the country may be in recession while another remains relatively unscathed for the moment.
So, in other words it means whatever you say it means. Does that make you the Red Queen or the White Queen? Forgive me, I forget my Carroll, it's been a long time since I went down the rabbit hole.
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DieCommie


Registered: 12/11/03
Posts: 29,258
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: zorbman]
#7869047 - 01/12/08 01:11 PM (16 years, 20 days ago) |
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What if its the other way around... What if the 'Harvard economist' is saying that the economy is bad, but real people on the ground are getting along just fine?
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Cubie
Moderator




Registered: 01/11/08
Posts: 8,840
Loc: Down the rabbit hole...
Last seen: 11 years, 8 months
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: DieCommie]
#7869086 - 01/12/08 01:27 PM (16 years, 20 days ago) |
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u guys will turn a triangle into a frying pan.... we are going into recession. negitive growth for 2 quarters or semesters or what not. there actuley using inflation and forign spending to bump us up outta recession. will it work who knows..
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zorbman
blarrr



Registered: 06/04/04
Posts: 5,952
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: zappaisgod]
#7869109 - 01/12/08 01:36 PM (16 years, 20 days ago) |
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Quote:
So, in other words it means whatever you say it means.
Not at all. There is a degree of subjectivity, however. It is not as precise as some make it out to be. If you disagree, then you can vote "no".
-------------------- “The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.” -- Rudiger Dornbusch
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zappaisgod
horrid asshole


Registered: 02/11/04
Posts: 81,741
Loc: Fractallife's gym
Last seen: 7 years, 7 months
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: zorbman]
#7869607 - 01/12/08 04:14 PM (16 years, 20 days ago) |
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I voted TripsaLot
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zorbman
blarrr



Registered: 06/04/04
Posts: 5,952
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: zappaisgod]
#7869769 - 01/12/08 04:52 PM (16 years, 20 days ago) |
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Oh.
-------------------- “The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.” -- Rudiger Dornbusch
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Luddite
I watch Fox News


Registered: 03/23/06
Posts: 2,946
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: zorbman]
#7869916 - 01/12/08 05:27 PM (16 years, 20 days ago) |
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The voting doesn't work through my proxy.
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Evolving
Resident Cynic


Registered: 10/01/02
Posts: 5,385
Loc: Apt #6, The Village
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: zorbman]
#7869936 - 01/12/08 05:31 PM (16 years, 20 days ago) |
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Economic metrics tell us after a recession is already underway. The dollar is definitely tanking. Food and fuel prices have been rising for quite some time and wages are not keeping up with monetary inflation. Do not look for government statistics to give you a real indication, they are designed to serve certain agendas whilst giving the appearance of objective data.
-------------------- To call humans 'rational beings' does injustice to the term, 'rational.' Humans are capable of rational thought, but it is not their essence. Humans are animals, beasts with complex brains. Humans, more often than not, utilize their cerebrum to rationalize what their primal instincts, their preconceived notions, and their emotional desires have presented as goals - humans are rationalizing beings.
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zorbman
blarrr



Registered: 06/04/04
Posts: 5,952
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: Luddite]
#7869964 - 01/12/08 05:36 PM (16 years, 20 days ago) |
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Quote:
Luddite said: The voting doesn't work through my proxy.
You can just post your vote or PM it to me and I will adjust the final percentages accordingly when voting is complete.
-------------------- “The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.” -- Rudiger Dornbusch
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Phred
Fred's son


Registered: 10/18/00
Posts: 12,949
Loc: Dominican Republic
Last seen: 9 years, 18 days
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: Evolving]
#7870043 - 01/12/08 05:54 PM (16 years, 20 days ago) |
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Holy crap!
Evolving.... long time no see. How the fuck are ya, anyway?
Phred
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Evolving
Resident Cynic


Registered: 10/01/02
Posts: 5,385
Loc: Apt #6, The Village
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: Phred]
#7870092 - 01/12/08 06:07 PM (16 years, 20 days ago) |
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I'm out of weed, out of shrooms and only have three beers left. How do do you think I am? ... grumpy!
-------------------- To call humans 'rational beings' does injustice to the term, 'rational.' Humans are capable of rational thought, but it is not their essence. Humans are animals, beasts with complex brains. Humans, more often than not, utilize their cerebrum to rationalize what their primal instincts, their preconceived notions, and their emotional desires have presented as goals - humans are rationalizing beings.
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Annapurna1
liberal pussy


Registered: 05/21/02
Posts: 5,646
Loc: innsmouth..MA
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: zorbman]
#7873449 - 01/13/08 01:52 PM (16 years, 19 days ago) |
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my answer is that poverty (as measured by medians) will continue to spread even as GDP growth continues to accelerate (whether or not at a slower pace)...if that constitutes a recession..then we have been in a recession since king george took over...under this policy..GDP growth only measures increasing inequality and is fallacious at best as an economic indicator...
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"anchor blocks counteract the process of pontiprobation..while omalean globes regulize the pressure"...
Edited by Annapurna1 (01/13/08 01:55 PM)
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zorbman
blarrr



Registered: 06/04/04
Posts: 5,952
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: Annapurna1]
#7877511 - 01/14/08 09:31 AM (16 years, 18 days ago) |
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66% of those responding to this poll believe the U.S. is in recession, 19% believe it is not , and 15% believe they are Sir Tripsalot. They probably also believe we are not in a recession as that is equally delusional. Or perhaps Tripsalot is a quadruplet?
-------------------- “The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.” -- Rudiger Dornbusch
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Icelander
The Minstrel in the Gallery



Registered: 03/15/05
Posts: 95,368
Loc: underbelly
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: zappaisgod]
#7877695 - 01/14/08 10:32 AM (16 years, 18 days ago) |
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it's been a long time since I went down the rabbit hole.
I think it would do you a lot of good.     grams
-------------------- "Don't believe everything you think". -Anom. " All that lives was born to die"-Anom. With much wisdom comes much sorrow, The more knowledge, the more grief. Ecclesiastes circa 350 BC
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Floop
Stranger

Registered: 11/28/06
Posts: 179
Last seen: 14 years, 10 months
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: Icelander]
#7878768 - 01/14/08 03:23 PM (16 years, 18 days ago) |
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Im going for a serious reaction here.
The US has a large trade deficit. This is because countries like China who dont have a stong consumer base depend on the US to import their goods so they can build up their industries. With the result that the US is importing way more than they exporting. The US has the money to do this because countries like China buy large amount of dollars to make sure the dollar is worth enough to buy all those goods. This in turn leads to countries having higher and higher percentages of their money in dollars. Obviously this can't go on indefinitely. And right now many countries think the risk of having such a high percentage of their money in dollars is a too big. So they're not willing to finance the US anymore. This leads to a weaker dollar, inflation and thus less consuming and this in turn leads to a slowing down or recession of the economy.
-------------------- "The finest emotion of which we are capable is the mystic emotion. Herein lies the germ of all art and all true science. Anyone to whom this feeling is alien, who is no longer capable of wonderment and lives in a state of fear is a dead man. To know that what is impenatrable for us really exists and manifests itself as the highest wisdom and the most radiant beauty, whose gross forms alone are intelligible to our poor faculties - this knowledge, this feeling ... that is the core of the true religious sent iment. In this sense, and in this sense alone, I rank myself amoung profoundly religious men." -Albert Einstein
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zorbman
blarrr



Registered: 06/04/04
Posts: 5,952
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: Floop]
#7878866 - 01/14/08 03:46 PM (16 years, 18 days ago) |
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Very astute.
The U.S. economy is fueled by debt. The credit cycle is ending along with the economic good times it created.
Traders, investors, and owners of dollars realize that they are holding onto a depreciating asset. Common sense says this situation cannot last.
The Federal Reserve is in between a rock and a hard place. It can respond by raising interest rates to support the dollar but that will tank the economy. Interest rates are at historic lows. They can instead lower them further to provide debt for illusory economic growth but there is only so far they can go in that direction. This move will tank the dollar which will crash the global monetary system.
They have painted themselves into a corner.
I have read some of Fed Chairman Bernanke's past statements and I believe he will choose the path of printing more money and allow the dollar to free fall. This path ends in a hyperinflationary depression which will make the Great Depression look like a picnic.
-------------------- “The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.” -- Rudiger Dornbusch
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Luddite
I watch Fox News


Registered: 03/23/06
Posts: 2,946
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Re: Is the U.S. headed into a recession? [Re: zorbman]
#7878999 - 01/14/08 04:08 PM (16 years, 18 days ago) |
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You smoke a lot of pot, don't you. Don't let your fantasies give you an excuse to use more drugs.
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