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InvisibleBaeosistine
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How is the credit crunch affecting you?
    #7834715 - 01/05/08 08:25 AM (16 years, 27 days ago)

Here in the UK we read a lot about house price falls and the sub-prime mortgage crisis in the US, and how this has led to banks tightening up their lending to you and me.

I am wondering have you actually been affected by this e.g. limit on your credit card lowered, couldn't get the loan you expected, having problems with your mortgage etc?

Here in the UK house prices are starting to go down very slightly after years of massive increases. I am in a good position as my mortgage is very small and I have paid off my other debts, but other people are having problems as their mortgage payments increase and they can't get credit so easily.

One of the UKs main mortgage lenders Norther Rock, has had to borrow $100 billion (!) from the Bank of England as they could no longer raise enough cash on the markets, and there were lines of customers waiting outisde branches to withdraw their deposits.


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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Registered: 10/31/04
Posts: 21,407
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Re: How is the credit crunch affecting you? *DELETED* [Re: Baeosistine]
    #7835146 - 01/05/08 11:28 AM (16 years, 27 days ago)

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Reason for deletion: nunyaeffinb



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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: How is the credit crunch affecting you? [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #7835316 - 01/05/08 12:18 PM (16 years, 27 days ago)

Quote:

LunarEclipse said:

In the US up till now the price drops have been largest and felt most in regions of CA and FL and NV where the most "funny money" was loaned to unqualified buyers and speculators. Those are also the areas that have the most ARMS that will reset in 2008 resulting in even more foreclosures and price drops.


The ARM (adjustable rate mortgage) problem may not be as bad as anticipated, as the US Treasury Department engaged the lenders in a voluntary agreement to prevent teetering ARM's from resetting higher this year.. in effect holding the rates at their introductory % to allow the buyers to continue paying off their debt. Afterall, the lenders don't want to foreclose on someone and be stuck with a house in a bad market, they just want their loans to be paid back. This won't solve the whole problem, but it will keep many more people in their homes.


> I am wondering have you actually been affected by this

Only through my investments in the stock market. It has been a terrible two weeks, on friday I lost over $1500, and my losses over the last two weeks have amounted to nearly $6000. The combination of a less confident consumer, less lending, less economic growth and corporate profit, has the stock market in a dangerous position. Hard to say what exactly will happen from here, but the market on Friday hit what is called a "tripple bottom"... meaning essentially that in the last 6 months we've lost 10% of the market value three times now. And never in the history of the stock market has a tripple bottom recovered to continue a bull run (positive trend). Therefore, for those of you investing in the market, it would be prudent to get very defensive on your positions as we could see a lot more selling ahead. Try to stick to the following sectors: oil, agriculture, healthcare, defense, and infrastructure. Don't even think about touching the financials, housing, or retail stocks right now.


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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: How is the credit crunch affecting you? *DELETED* [Re: geokills]
    #7838671 - 01/06/08 10:11 AM (16 years, 26 days ago)

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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: How is the credit crunch affecting you? [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #7842959 - 01/07/08 10:28 AM (16 years, 25 days ago)

I haven't engaged options trading, though it does intrigue me. Quite frankly, I don't want to overload myself - and as I haven't fully educated myself on options trading, I must stick to what I understand for now.

As for selling Google (or any stock), if you never sell, you'll never book any profits - so yes, there is of course a price that I am willing to sell Google, but it will change based on where the stock is now, and what the company is doing now or plans to do in the future. Ultimately, almost every stock that goes up ends up coming back down sooner or later. As any of the stocks I own go up in price, I trim my positions by selling about 20% of what I own. Likewise, when my stocks go down in price (provided I still believe in the fundamental structure and long-term outlook of the business), I will add to my position by purchasing similarly small increments.

Transactions are rarely all or nothing, as it is nearly impossible to game exactly where a stock is heading. Therefore, you only need an idea of the overall trend, and the discipline to slowly scale into and out of your positions over time, taking advantage of the short-term moves as best you can, while keeping your focus on the overall long-term prospects.


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