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Invisiblememes
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Re: Stock Update for June 5, 2014 [Re: geokills]
    #20089308 - 06/05/14 06:13 PM (9 years, 7 months ago)



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InvisibleCowgold
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Re: Stock Update for June 5, 2014 [Re: memes]
    #20100103 - 06/08/14 11:21 AM (9 years, 7 months ago)

Memes, that's fucking awesome!


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Re: Stock Update for June 5, 2014 [Re: Cowgold]
    #20100244 - 06/08/14 12:03 PM (9 years, 7 months ago)

officially farted in that chair -

/endthreadjack


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Re: Stock Update for June 5, 2014 [Re: memes]
    #20101639 - 06/08/14 06:22 PM (9 years, 7 months ago)

Memes you work in DC? Hook me up with an internship yo


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for June 20, 2014 [Re: geokills]
    #20158784 - 06/20/14 10:38 AM (9 years, 7 months ago)

The market continues to set new highs.  Since noting my increased appetite for exposure to equities, my portfolio is up 38% in 28 days time, by far the best performance I have ever experienced.  I know it can be hard to buy at these levels, where it seems that the market has gone too far too fast and us due to correct in a big way, and by no means would I advocate going "all in" in one fell swoop, but it is important to recognize that even in spite of poor first quarter GDP numbers, a lowering of aggregate GDP projections in the US by the Fed and the IMF, and not the least of concerns the instability and bloodshed in Iraq on behalf of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria rebel group; the market has barely flinched.

When the market advances in the face of good news, it makes sense and is rather unremarkable.  But when the market continues to advance in the face of uncertainty and bad news, it is sending a very important message that the bias is clearly to the upside.  I believe that much of this has to do with the persistently low interest rate environment that is keeping a lid on fixed income assets and helping to stabilize the private sector, a policy which the ECB reinforced as noted in my post here two weeks ago, and which the Federal Reserve passively reinforced yesterday by hinting at a potentially faster pace of rate tightening contrasted by less concern about inflation and an anticipation of lower than expected borrowing costs in the longer run.

The note the Fed made on inflation helped support precious metals, with gold and silver both taking a nice high volume jump this week, and for a long term asset allocation strategy I think it is wise to hold some of these metals; but the real money maker in the near to intermediate term still appears to be in the hands of equities.  Solar stocks are very strong, with SCTY, SUNE and SPWR being major contributors to the gains I have seen recently.  I would suggest that this sector is good for the long term, as solar is proving itself to be a viable alternative to fossil fueled energy production.  SCTY has been doubling its deployment of solar production capacity each year, and this week announced that they are purchasing domestic panel manufacturer Silevo in order to vertically integrate their business as well as to improve aggregate panel technology while reducing costs thanks to their economies of scale.  Read this blog post for more information, suffice it to say that with solar penetration at around 1% here in the US, there is a lot of room for growth.  If you don't want to be heavily invested in any one company, consider buying the Solar ETF: TAN, which is showing nice support here where its 50 and 200 day moving averages are coalescing.

As always, good luck!  And in case you're curious, here are my current positions:

    Solar
  • SCTY calls and call spreads
  • SUNE calls and call spreads
  • SPWR calls

    Travel
  • TRIP calls and call spreads
  • PCLN call spreads

    Technology
  • RVBD calls
  • AAPL calls
  • FB calls

    Oil and Chemicals
  • HES call spreads
  • AGU calls and call spreads

    Railroad
  • TRN call spreads

    Diversified
  • BRKB calls

    Retail
  • UA calls
  • V calls

    Biotechnology
  • BIIB call spreads
  • SLXP call spreads
  • MDVN calls

    REIT
  • TWO common stock


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for June 24, 2014 [Re: geokills]
    #20178393 - 06/24/14 10:20 AM (9 years, 7 months ago)

Nothing fundamentally new to opine upon today, but I did want to chime in really quick on one Chinese stock that is setting up really nicely for a sustained move higher: SINA


         


Check out the multi-month consolidation forming a low base between $40-$50.  The 50 day moving average has come down to meet the price, and today we are seeing the price poking above this moving average.  Not only that, but the bollinger bands have squeezed very tightly, which tends to precede a big move in the direction that the bands ultimately break (because volatility is cyclical; periods of low volatility tend to break to periods of high volatility), especially when they break near a key moving average.  The third thing that has me licking my chops is the very high volume this mornin.  At this pace, the daily volume bar will be much higher than any of the volume bars over the past month.  Lastly, the price action on May 22nd/23rd, where the stock hit a low of $42.40 and bounced hard, supports the long base, since the reversal occurred on extremely high volume which indicates institutional buying.

If SINA closes near or above $48 today, I think this breakout is going to have a lot of room to run.  I generally don't like making price targets, instead opting to set trailing stops as the stocks run in my favor, but it seems that a trip up to $55-$60 a share is pretty much a given unless the market totally melts down.  I wouldn't be surprised to see this hit $70 before year end, which is some 46% higher, and considerably more if you use options to leverage your position.  As always, you must manage your risk by setting stops in case the thesis doesn't play out.

I entered July $50 calls today for $1 and change per contract as a speculative short term trade on this volatility expansion, along with some longer term September and January $50 calls, which I intend to sell $70 calls against after the stock has run a bit, in effect lowering my cost basis and converting my long call position into a call spread.


In other stock specific news, FB and DECK are looking frisky.


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Stock Update for June 30, 2014 [Re: geokills]
    #20207177 - 06/30/14 10:39 AM (9 years, 6 months ago)

The thesis on SINA that I noted in my last post is playing out.  The stock briefly pulled back to test last week's breakout level at its 50 day moving average, and when I saw it moving higher this morning (I had set a price alert above Friday's intraday high), it allowed me to confidently add to my position since I could set a stop below the intraday low, thereby making this a very low risk trade because if I'm proven wrong, I get stopped out with a small loss since I entered so close to support, but if I'm right, I have quite a large position that can capitalize on the positive dynamics the stock had been showing.


         


I don't think SINA is done going higher, but it would be hard to buy into it now that it is already 13% higher than it was last week.  This is why I initiated two positions, one via short term call options (the July $50's) and another via longer term call options (initially the january $50's, although I modified that to September $50's since I didn't want to buy quite so much time on a fast moving stock like this).

My July $50 calls are up over 100% as of this writing, at which point I am closing 1/3 of the position.  This further reduces my risk since I have now locked in a major profit and have almost paid for the remaining short term position with the profits I have booked.  Because I believe the stock has more room to run, I am not even touching the September $50 calls, although I am attempting to sell September $70 calls against them provided I can do so for a minimum $2 credit.  This turns my longer term position into a spread, which caps potential upside, but also reduces my cost basis on the lower strike Sept $50 call and therefore lowers my aggregate risk on the position.

I still like DECK, FB and AAPL.  CTRX is squeezing very tightly, allowing for a low risk entry provided you keep your stop below the current range, just under $43 (about 2.5% lower than where the stock is trading right now).  I have also added to a position in MOS, as it pulls back to its 50 day moving average after attempting a breakout last week.  It's another low risk entry, as the stock has been basing for almost a year and volatility is squeezing tightly here right around its 50 and 200 day moving averages.

As a point of frustration, I sure wish I would've bought some Z a while back, but I have been waiting for a pull back that just won't materialize, and have thus watched the stock go from $100 when I started watching it for an entry only a month ago, to $144 where it sits right now.  Just a reminder that you won't win them all.  Be patient, watch for low risk entries, define that risk and adhere to your stops.  Remember that risk has two sides, the risk of losing money as well as the risk of missing out on a gain.


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Stock Update for September 3, 2014 [Re: geokills]
    #20514020 - 09/03/14 11:41 AM (9 years, 4 months ago)

Quick note that the SINA trade did not pan out as planned, but such is trading.  Through the use of disciplined stops, I was bucked out of the position without giving back all of the profits I had already built into the trade.  That's a win in my book, even if it wasn't a home run.

Since it's been a while, and the S&P has now hit the psychologically significant 2000 level, I figure it's high time to review a few of my trades.  To note, it seems that 2000 on the S&P will probably act as a magnet for prices for a little while.  That is, we'll probably churn and bounce around here a little bit to the upside and a little bit to the downside, as big money returns to the markets from summer vacation and ultimately probes to determine whether 2000 is a sustainable level for the market. 

Given improving economic data and the accompanying seeming acceptance that the US Fed could start to raise rates a little bit earlier than anticipated, in conjunction with the fact that the market has already been churning around this level for well over a week without any major moves, it seems likely that the longer term uptrend is intact and we are forming a high base from where the market will ultimately move higher.  I could see the S&P pulling back to ~1975 pretty easily, and I would expect the S&P to find solid support no lower than 1950.  That's my line in the sand, and where I would really start playing things close to the vest.  Until then, I'm relatively happy to sit on my hands, even if it's boring.

On that note, here are some of the trades I'm in, along with my rationale.

  • Facebook (FB).  This is one of my largest positions right now, which I really started to press yesterday and today, upon witnessing the stock, having been in a long term uptrend, pushing up through this last 1.5 month period of consolidation (the shaded box on the right side of the chart below).  There's a little give back today, but I will actually use any further weakness, so long as we do not fall below ~$73, to add to my position.  Not only has FB been reporting stellar earnings and hit a fresh all time high this morning, there is also a bit of a volatility squeeze going on here and it looks like it wants to breakout to the upside, although it may take a little longer to do so.  Nevertheless, I think this is one to buy right here right now. Advertisers have been indicating that their investments in FB ads have been more profitable than their investment in Google ads, and we all know what advertising did for Google's stock.  Something to consider for the long term on a relatively new issue like FB.






  • Baidu (BIDU).  Very similar to FB.  Reported great earnings, didn't give much back and has just worked its way sideways allowing the major moving averages to catch up.  Yesterday's high volume move to the upside, out of a volatility squeeze, gives me confidence that it likely has room to set new all time highs.






  • SolarCity (SCTY).  Here's a bit of the opposite thing.  I am mentioning this because, up until yesterday, SCTY has been one of my largest longer term positions.  However, the expansion to the downside, after an earnings pop that was sold heavily into and has subsequently sliced through its 50 day moving average, does not inspire confidence.  I will look for support near $60 as an opportunity to rebuild this position, but for now, I'm out. [EDIT: Of course, this one rockets 5%+ higher and reclaims its 50 day moving average on news of opening 20 new facilities the day after I close the remainder of my position, such is trading]






  • Trip Advisor (TRIP).  This has been another long term hold of mine.  It's definitely put up some caution flags with a series of lower highs over the past few months, although the longer term trend has not been broken, as witnessed on the weekly chart (even though it could be indicating a potential double-top formation as the last all time high failed to tag the top of the uptrending channel.  I need to see this one move above $105 to build my confidence enough to increase my position size.  I had already ditched a large part of this position when it failed to move above its earnings high at the 50 day moving average in late July, and on a break below $90, I am likely to close the rest of my position, despite the fact that I think this company is firing on all cylinders.  The technical damage at that point will likely keep a lid on further upside as the stock takes time to repair itself, even if it does continue to report solid earnings.






  • Visa (VISA). This guy is in a major long term uptrend, but has been consolidating for the entirety of 2014.  You can see the wedge on the weekly chart below.  Now that price is gravitating to an area where all of the key moving averages are coalescing, this one is likely to break in a big way, one way or the other.  Since the long term trend is up, the bias is for a break to the upside, and hence, I have initiated a new position this week.  Those with a sharp memory might remember that I identified this consolidation months ago and tried my hand to catch an early breakout.  Well that turned out to be too early, but as you can see from the tightening of the wedge and the convergence of the moving averages, the breakout is bound to occur sooner rather than later.






  • Pioneer Resources (PXD).  This one has also come in to bounce off of its 200 day moving average.  Volatility is squeezing and the price action over the past two weeks has been constructive.  The now downtrending 50 day moving average does indicate overhead resistance, and the strengthening dollar which will put pressure on commodity prices such as oil and gas, will be a headwind for a company like Pioneer.  Nevertheless, I think it's worth taking a stab at it here.  I am playing Devon Energy (DVN) similarly.  But make no mistake, these are being kept on a very tight leash.  [EDIT: Stopped out of this the next day]






  • Apple (AAPL).  Last one I'll discuss today is Apple.  They are slated to announce new products next tuesday, including a larger format iPhone6 that should include a near field chip to allow users to make Visa/MC/Amex payments with their phone instead of the standard plastic card.  There is also anticipation of a wearable "iWatch" device being released, although that is far more speculative.  Frankly, Apple has had a history of selling off on the announcement of its new products, but given that it just hit new highs and is pulling back today to test the psychologically significant $100 level, I think it's giving us an opportunity to pick some up for a long term position.  Even if it sells off on the announcement next week, or on aggregate market pressure, the iPhone6 should be a big seller for Apple as more iPhone users are eligible for a subsidized upgrade during this product cycle than during previous ones, and there's more reason to upgrade (larger screen/credit card payment ability/etc).  The fact that Apple recently inked a deal with ChinaMobile, China's largest carrier, should provide huge potential upside as wealthy Chinese trade up to the status icon that is an Apple product.



Other positions I have on at the moment are: IBB, MDVN, SLXP, VOYA, SUNE, Z, PCLN (caution on this one), and a funky lil' entirely speculative Chinese play JD.


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Edited by geokills (09/04/14 12:28 PM)


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for September 19, 2014 [Re: geokills]
    #20589316 - 09/19/14 04:27 PM (9 years, 4 months ago)

Well the market has done a lot of grinding around since my last post, but it did finally breakout to a new high this week, although there was a little bit of caution heading into the weekend.  The Fed came through with more of the same, an indication that low rates are to be maintained for the foreseeable future.  Even as hikes will ultimately come, they will likely be measured at a snail's pace.  Scotland opting to remain part of the UK also allowed the market to breathe a sigh of relief.

On stock specifics, my caution on SCTY was warranted, as I was stopped out of all of my positions in the name but re-entered some January 2016 $60 call options at a discount today.  Not a huge position since I think this one might find its way down to $60 and churn around for a while longer since there really aren't any major near term catalysts, and the company could look to do a secondary offering in order to finance the construction of its Silevo solar panel production facility in New York, which would put pressure on the share price in the near term.

In other news, I built up positions in GOOGL and MMM.  GOOGL is close to breaking out to all time highs after having consolidated between $500-$600 a share for the whole year.  MMM has also been consolidating for many months and has already broken out to all time highs this week.  MMM is not a hot money fast momentum stock, but the long term chart does look very appealing.

FB is still looking really nice, with a pull back this week that offered a great entry for the nimble (I scored some Oct $75 and Nov $70 calls on the bounce off the 50 day moving average, which are up 77% and 30% respectively so far).

I also added a bit to AAPL this week, as the iPhone6 has been met with nothing but praise and the early orders appear to be significantly stronger than expected.  That Apple might be announcing new versions of its iPad at an event next month is a further catalyst.  I have also become more bullish on my SWKS positions by closing my short $60 calls, as the stock is also breaking out to new highs and should be a major beneficiary of the Apple product cycle, since they make a lot of the chips that get used in these phones.

I added some MA along side my V exposure, as the credit processors have been in a very tight consolidation range and are starting to perk up.  If they do break down, support is so well defined that the position can be closed out for a negligible loss.

Summary of positions:
  • TWO - long stock
  • FB - long calls Oct $75, Nov $70, Jan 2016 $65's and $70's
  • AAPL - long calls Jan 2016 $100
  • SWKS - long calls Nov $55
  • BIDU - long calls Jan $230
  • TRIP - long calls Jan 2016 and 2015 $100's
  • MMM - Long calls Apr $140
  • GOOGL - Long calls Jan $580
  • DECK - long calls Jan $90
  • VOYA - long calls Feb $38
  • SCTY - long calls Jan 2016 $60
  • SUNE - long calls Jan 2016 $20
  • MDVN - long calls Jan 2016 $60's and $75's
  • SLXP - long call spread Jan $110/$135
  • IBB - long call spread Jan $260/$300
  • AEGR - long call spread Nov $32.5/$40


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Re: Stock Update for September 19, 2014 [Re: geokills]
    #20625952 - 09/27/14 01:39 PM (9 years, 4 months ago)

Sorry for the ignorant question, but goddam Geokills, where did you learn all this shit?  Seems like you really know your stuff to the extent that I can hardly understand your posts :gethigh:.  It appears that over the next several months, I will have some disposable cash to throw around.  How much do you need to really get started, $500, $1000?  I was thinking of doing some virtual trading for practice to kind of get the hang of things.  Any recommendations on forums/books/videos so I can figure out what the fuck I'm doing?

What's your take on silver?  Do you think it's bottomed out?


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Re: Stock Update for September 19, 2014 [Re: All We Perceive]
    #20626316 - 09/27/14 02:59 PM (9 years, 4 months ago)

Hey man, I run through a lot of the basics in the first post of this thread, though I should go through it and revise it again, as it's been a while since my last edit.  There are a couple of book recommendations in there, and I'd definitely recommend watching at least the free chart videos over at StockMarketMentor.com to understand how to identify trends in the price action (i.e. read a chart).  Most of my trading these days is based on chart analysis.  I have a few longer term investments where I believe the fundamentals are solid, in sectors like tech, solar and biotech, but my trading style is generally very fluid and nearly 100% option based, so what I thought yesterday may not apply today, dependent upon the market action that has transpired between then and now.

How much capital you need to get started is a difficult question to answer, but I would suggest $5,000 to $10,000 would be a minimum target in order to maintain some measure of diversification while being able to trade around your positions a bit.  Definitely do the virtual trading first.  In fact, I'd virtually trade for at least a few months (preferably six+) before putting your own capital at risk.  It's amazing what a good teacher experience will be, as it will help you feel out your own style and risk tolerance.

Silver is in a downtrend.  Until that shows decisive signs of a break, I am not interested in following it.  I have sat on physical gold, silver and palladium, as part of my long term asset allocation strategy, but I don't generally trade the metals.  If I do, I will trade options on the derivative ETF's (exchange traded funds) like GLD and SLV.  But the sector is under pressure due to the Fed's intention to begin raising rates in 2015, which is putting upward pressure on the dollar, and inversely downward pressure on dollar denominated commodities like the metals, oil, etc.  I don't like to pick or call bottoms.  When the price action shows signs that buying pressure is picking up and selling has slowed, and there is some sort of definable support level, that's when I'll start considering the trade.  No need to catch a falling knife, let it hit the butcher block first so that you'll know where to put your stop loss.

If I can catch the middle 50-80% of a given move, I'm happy.  Expecting to get in at the absolute bottom and out at the absolute top is a fool's game, because only the fools and the liars will claim that it can be done. :wink:


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Re: Stock Update for September 19, 2014 [Re: geokills]
    #20626362 - 09/27/14 03:05 PM (9 years, 4 months ago)

The thing I don't get about chart analysis is isn't everyone reading the same chart??  Do you follow the chart method for tech companies given the seeming influence of innovation/product success on ultimate stock movement?  Thank you for your detailed response.


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Reading Stock Charts & differentiating between Trend / Momentum Vs Value Investors [Re: All We Perceive]
    #20634527 - 09/29/14 10:04 AM (9 years, 3 months ago)

Everyone is generally looking at the same charts, sure.  But just as reading a book requires a deep understanding of the language presented in order to interpret all of the nuance, so too reading a stock chart requires an intimate familiarity with identifying and interpreting patterns, that tends to come only with experience.  I like the language analogy quite a bit... You can probably get by in the foreign country for where you have studied the language, but until you spend a lot of time amongst the people, you won't be able to grasp the slang and subtle cues that convey a lot of the meaning behind people's words.  Similarly when reading a chart, you can tell if a stock is generally doing well because when the price is going up over time, but do you have the kind of familiarity to absorb all of the data that is displayed in concert, in order to create a high probability scenario of where future buying and selling may occur?  The price action is the most powerful piece of information I can have about any of my investments.  It reflects the sum knowledge of all of the information available on that company, including expectations for future performance and innovation.

My trading style is that primarily of a trend follower, I identify trends and do my best to catch 50-80% of the move.  When you talk about the influence of innovation and product success on a stock, that is something that is already being taken into consideration of the stock's price.  You can look at Apple's (AAPL) stock for example.  It hit a top in late September 2012, right around the time the iPhone 5's came out, and started a decline that didn't end until almost a year later.  Even though Apple did not release any new products during the first 3/4 of 2014, the stock has ramped up to all time highs during this time.  This is because of the future expectations being priced into the stock, ahead of them actually occurring.  An old Wall Street saying is "buy the rumour and sell the news."  Even though Apple's earnings in the second half of 2013 failed to beat the prior year comparisons, the stock started to climb because the market inherently attempts to be a forward pricing mechanism and therefore incorporates expectations of future performance into the current price.  Well Apple did finally announce their new iPhone and Apple Watch products this month, and broke records by selling 10 million units of the iPhone 6 in its first weekend on sale.  Yet, AAPL's stock has hardly moved since these revelations.  Why?  Because the chart already told the story of the high expectations people have had for iPhone 6, which is why the stock climbed all year prior to the official announcement.

Of course, there is room for upside surprises (and disappointments), because not everything can be foreseen.  When your investment style is that of finding companies you believe are mispriced, those where you believe the current stock's valuation doesn't match up with their future prospects, you are playing from the seat of the value investor.  This style involves considerably more patience than that of the trend follower, because you necessarily aim to buy early, at extreme lows, and wait patiently for the company to prove your belief that the stock was underpriced to be correct.  This takes time, as you'll need to wait for new products or strategies to be rolled out, then wait for the sales and earnings data to trickle through.  Trend followers can identify a value stock once it has started to make its turn, but they won't be in as early as the value investors who did extensive study on the company and are generally better informed investors.  However, the trend follower gets to move his capital around more frequently.  So even if the trend follower only catches half of the move that the value investor caught, they likely didn't have their capital tied up for nearly as long, and can therefore tackle more opportunities during the same period of time that the value investor is waiting around for their long term thesis to play out.

It is important to recognize that neither style is necessarily better than the other.  All that matters is which do you feel more comfortable with.  Which are you better at?  Which fits better into you lifestyle?  As strange as it sounds, my experiences learning to invest in the stock market have provided for a lot of personal growth in understanding how my own emotions affect (and often cloud) my decision making abilities.


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Stock Update for September 30, 2014 [Re: geokills]
    #20639333 - 09/30/14 09:42 AM (9 years, 3 months ago)

It's the end of the 3rd quarter and its been a few months of trading that has been rather uneventful on the balance, but potentially quite painful for active traders who tend to get chopped up in these sideways / trendless environments.  We have been getting some big moves on a daily basis in the major averages all month as summer has drawn to a close and big money has been coming back to game the market.  It looks like we could be setting up for a tradable bounce right here, with the S&P having churned around its 50 day moving average all week and still holding the line. The fourth quarter is historically strong, however there is still a lot of geopolitical risk out there (enter Hong Kong protests as the latest chapter) and the fear of the Fed rate hikes in 2015 coupled with an US economy that, while it is showing signs of improvement, is also a bit of a bumpy ride.

Frankly, this has been a hard environment for me to trade.  Most of my short term trades in the past few weeks have been losers, as the market chopped around and shook me out.  But such is the nature of trading, and while it's not what I would have liked to see, I am able to recognize that the market is no longer actively trending higher, even as it hasn't actively broken down.  So I'm circling the wagons, adding gently to longer term positions and not doing as much short term activity because it is simply too hard for me in this environment.  On those longer term trades that I think are actionable right here, I am looking at GOOGL, TRIP and INVN as stuff that can be bought today with a tight stop.  Less attractive entries (but seemingly good holding stocks) include SWKS, AEGR, DECK, AAPL and FB.  I really like solar as a long term investment idea, but the stocks have been getting crushed with the strong dollar / falling oil relationship.  Not playing for the short term, but I did recently re-enter some 2016 $60 calls on SCTY which has been just plain fugly, and am still hanging onto some 2016 $20 SUNE calls, which sports an equally disgusting chart.  Other stocks that I'm not trading but appear to be offering good entries today are V, MMM, ALXN and BITA.

Time will tell...

Last thing to note, is to keep an eye on the MDY (mid cap index) and IWM (small cap index).  These have been underperforming even as the S&P and DOW have held their own close to their all time highs.  But if the mid- and small-caps continue to break down, it will likely be a harbinger of the broader market being unable to sustain current levels, let alone hit new highs in the near term.


Edit:  Welp, a day latter and several dollars shorter! :bored:  The mid and small caps continue to break down and the S&P moves decisively below its 50 day moving average.  Although this has happened before and the indexes have been able to resume their uptrend, this is definitely a red flag.  No sense in being aggressive here.


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Edited by geokills (10/01/14 08:57 AM)


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Stock Update for October 9, 2014 - CAUTION! [Re: geokills]
    #20681019 - 10/09/14 05:45 PM (9 years, 3 months ago)

Wow.  Markets up nearly 2% yesterday and down 2% today on significant volume.  These are big swings, and the fact that the MDY (mid caps) and IWM (small caps) have continued to break down to lower lows does not inspire any confidence even as the S&P, Dow and Nasdaq have remained technically intact.  I suspect we will have a little bit more selling tomorrow, maybe a slight gap down, but will probably get some sort of a short term bounce before too long, maybe in the first five minutes tomorrow, maybe next week.  The markets are just very oversold on a short term basis.

In either case, it is no longer appropriate to be aggressive, as the uptrend in many areas of the market has been broken and it looks like the broader market is itching to follow suit.  Given the geopolitical backdrop coupled with slowing global growth, an ECB that doesn't want to implement stimulus and a US Fed that is hinting at raising rates next year, the environment for equities has grown increasingly hostile.  Be careful, don't be afraid to be in cash.  Watch for a bounce, but don't count on a whole lot because the environment has changed and this isn't the same market we've grown comfortable with over the past few years.  Now that could all change in a few weeks, but it's highly improbable that we're just going to rocket higher from here.  There's a lot of new resistance overhead and momentum is definitely shifting.  This could work itself out and prove to set us up for the next leg higher,  but it just doesn't feel that way given the high volume rapid moves and trend breaks of the past few weeks.  This behavior is typically seen at longer term market tops.  At best, I would expect a prolonged period of churning before we can break to new highs -- and even that feels rather optimistic.  I like cash here, no need to get chopped up to pieces in this mess.


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Stock Update for October 10, 2014 [Re: geokills]
    #20684206 - 10/10/14 02:08 PM (9 years, 3 months ago)

Over the past week, I have literally been stopped out of every position I had except for AAPL and MDVN.  This market is just plain filthy.  Keep that powder dry and don't let yourself bleed out, because this too shall pass and pave the way for some excellent opportunities - but you will need to have cash on hand in order to capitalize on them!  The only things I did today (besides sell in the morning, run with the dog and eat some ribs), was to put a bid out there on a May 2015 $170/$200 bull call spread on ALXN for $10.  I also added to AAPL, as it is holding up remarkably well amidst all this carnage, via some April 2015 expiration $105/$120 bull call spreads for $3.70.  But truly, this market is by and large, a freight train that you don't want to step in front of.  The S&P is resting right above 1900, which is coincidentally the home of its 200 day moving average.  Nothing to do here but wait and see what happens.  I imagine there will be some good opportunities for short term (intraday) swing trading once the market is stretched enough for a reflexive (and likely "dead cat") bounce, which will probably happen sometime next week, but that sort of trading is not for the inexperienced or poorly capitalized.


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Re: Stock Update for October 10, 2014 [Re: geokills]
    #20708227 - 10/15/14 08:22 PM (9 years, 3 months ago)

Interesting times out there, indeed.  Been watching things unfold~


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Re: Stock Update for October 10, 2014 [Re: memes]
    #20709818 - 10/16/14 08:52 AM (9 years, 3 months ago)

It's been nice to have been sitting on a pile of cash and basically doing nothing over the past week, not even watching the market during trading hours, as I didn't want to be tempted to over trade and experience the dreaded "death by 1,000 paper cuts" - although I did end up giving back some money on my MDVN and AAPL positions.  These two stocks appear to be succombing to aggregate market weakness as opposed to being broken themselves, and since they comprise a minority portion of my portfolio and I have such a long term time horizon on these, I expect to stomach some swings in the interim.  Prudence nevertheless did result in a portion of my position in AAPL being stopped out while I was away earlier this week.  I will look to reload if AAPL gets closer to its 200 day moving average.

As for right now, we see a long tail on yesterday's chart of the S&P, Nasdaq and Dow, and the gap down with the slow climb higher this morning is somewhat encouraging, if only for a short term bounce.  We'll have to see how the market closes because in this environment, the swings come fast and hit hard, and if the S&P doesn't close above yesterday's high (and especially if it closes toward the bottom of today's range), the bounce will be suspect and I would look for more downside.

On that note, I took some SSO for a day trade and also put a little skin into the XOP today.  The XOP (oil services) has fallen some 32% in less than two months.  Although there is good reason for that sector to fall on the heels of falling oil prices, the trading volume has been spiking very high over the past week and we had a big reversal day yesterday.  Seeing that the market gapped down at the open and XOP immediately started to move higher today without printing a lower low, I decided to wade into a somewhat conservative trade here with a $55/$65 bull call spread expiring in January for $4.20.  So if XOP is above $59.20 (1.8% higher than where it is trading right now) in the next 90 days, this trade will be profitable.  I still think the market will have a rough time ahead, with 1900 on the S&P pretty clear resistance, but I don't mind trying my hand at a few quick bounce trades.

I noticed this morning that January 2017 options are now being offered on a few issues, and have put in some low ball bids for SCTY Jan 2017 $45 calls and AAPL Jan 2017 $95 calls, as I believe that the stocks of both of these companies will be materially higher during the next 827 days.  SCTY looks to be putting in a fairly meaningful bounce right now (looks kinda like the XOP), and so I took a very small position, but there's plenty of time to get in on this trade (and plenty of resistance overhead), so I'm not in a rush to be aggressive.  I also have an offer out to sell January 2015 $35 puts on the SVXY for $5, which is essentially a bet that the explosion of volatility we have seen over the past few weeks will begin to revert to the mean before the year is out.  In order for someone to buy these $35 puts from me, the market will need to take another leg down (which I think is entirely possible), and if we have a full blown crash that persists into next year, I'll be comfortable taking possession of a relatively small position in SVXY @ $30 come January.


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Edited by geokills (10/16/14 09:16 AM)


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Re: Stock Update for October 10, 2014 [Re: geokills]
    #20710393 - 10/16/14 11:31 AM (9 years, 3 months ago)

I'm sorry if this has been answered recently and I missed it - there's a lot going on here - or if there's another thread going into detail all about this....

Anyway my question is how good of an investment do you think BitCoins are?  I feel like they've just steadily (well sometimes they jump) been going up, and will continue to rise for a really long time.  If I were to wait until another mini "BTC crash" and buy a bunch, or well, a few just one BTC costs a lot these days, but say when they crashed I put $1000-2000 in.  I feel like it would inevitably go back up, as so many transactions REQUIRE BTC and can't function without them.  So I feel like they might be an amazing investment, but I'm just not 100% sure and if anyone has more knowledge about this and can shed some light that would be awesome!!  For all I know they may have topped out and the current market has as many coins as it needs for everything to function, I dunno.

Thanks to anyone with some advice :smile:

:peace:


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Re: Stock Update for October 10, 2014 [Re: extreme]
    #20710466 - 10/16/14 11:55 AM (9 years, 3 months ago)

No one knows.  Bitcoins are a speculative investment based upon the thesis that they will see widespread adoption and sustained use as a currency product.  Whether or not this comes to pass, no one can know.  As with any investment, there is risk, and the risk with bitcoin is fairly high even though the underlying instrument is very interesting.


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