Home | Community | Message Board


This site includes paid links. Please support our sponsors.


Welcome to the Shroomery Message Board! You are experiencing a small sample of what the site has to offer. Please login or register to post messages and view our exclusive members-only content. You'll gain access to additional forums, file attachments, board customizations, encrypted private messages, and much more!

Shop: PhytoExtractum Buy Bali Kratom Powder   Kraken Kratom Kratom Capsules for Sale   Unfolding Nature Unfolding Nature: Being in the Implicate Order   Original Sensible Seeds Bulk Cannabis Seeds   North Spore North Spore Mushroom Grow Kits & Cultivation Supplies

Jump to first unread post Pages: < First | < Back | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | Next > | Last >
InvisibleLunarEclipse
Enlil's Official Story
Male User Gallery

Registered: 10/31/04
Posts: 21,407
Loc: Building 7
Re: Stock Update for December 18, 2013 - The Fed [Re: geokills] * 1
    #19505254 - 02/01/14 08:54 AM (9 years, 11 months ago)

Quote:

geokills said:
Wow, it's been a long time since I've updated this thread.  Frankly, I started becoming such an active trader that it became too cumbersome and of little value to profile my trades here any longer.  My trading style has morphed markedly from a combination of technical and fundamental analysis into a heavily technical trading strategy.  It took a long time, but after so many years of witnessing how irrational the market appeared to behave, I finally sunk my teeth into the understanding that making big money in the market is all about trend following and disciplined risk management; What the individual companies behind the stocks themselves do is often of little concern.

I still stick almost exclusively to profitable companies that trade with enough liquidity that volatility and bankruptcy are not of probable concern, but my decisions for where I place my money is now centered around the underlying dynamics of how money flows through the markets, the balance of power between buyers and sellers and being able to identify trends and exploit them.  Today, my portfolio is sitting at an all time high on the heels of the most profitable day I've ever had the pleasure to witness in my portfolio, and I am truly amazed at the potential of the stock market to increase wealth.  I am particularly amazed at how much leverage is available to the average Joe Investor via options, and how when wielded wisely, it is difficult to think of any other way to increase your wealth so quickly (it almost seems criminal!).  Of course, it would be irresponsible not to acknowledge that there are two sides to the story, and to note that the inappropriate use of leverage can wipe out the undisciplined investor just as fast as it may enrich the more meticulous and disciplined money manager.

Primarily, I wanted to hop in here to copy and paste a li'l missive sent out this morning by my Stock Market Mentor Dan Fitzpatrick, so without further ado:

Quote:

Good morning, Team. The truth? I just don't have much to say this morning. I continue to be amazed at how much sway and impact a private bank has over the entire global markets. Anyone who thinks that this is a free market economy is either living in an alternative universe, or just isn't particularly knowledgeable about the nature of things.

The Federal Reserve Board -- a government agency that essentially controls the way that investing is done. They set up cattle chutes and drive all the cattle into the same chute. Nobody knows how long the chute is, but you know what happens when you finally get into the big pen. They make it virtually impossible for people to save money because the interest that make on their money is only slightly greater than the interest the coffee can buried in the back yard pays...and at least you don't have to pay taxes on the coffee can (other than when you bought the original coffee).

So saving is discouraged and spending is encouraged. (Remember when our President gave a speech urging everyone to go out and spend money?) The very people who have no money are discouraged from saving -- they are encouraged to spend. And the very people who do have money...and who could afford to spend? Well, they aren't spending. They're too smart to spend an inordinate amount of money in such an uncertain environment. And where are they putting their money? Into the stock market! Exactly what the Fed wants them to do.

So when you truly think about this, it's socialism. All you poor minions,....spend for the common good. Get that money out in the economy working...create jobs for your fellow comrades. Don't worry about securing your own future. The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the one. Take one for the team -- we've got your back. Social Security is well funded. Big safety net for you. Medicare? All good. Rent control? That always works to keep local rents down. Rising taxes? Not your problem, because you'll be broke anyway.

So just spend that money -- no point in saving it.

Oh, and because rates are so low, and the government is now back to allowing those NINJA loans (No income, no job, no assets), you can get back in the housing market, which worked out so well for the last herd of cattle that ran down the same chute you're meandering through. (Watch where you step).

And the funniest thing of all? That government agency? The Federal Reserve Board? Guess what? It's not a government agency. No ties to the government at all. It's a bunch of private bankers with the keys to the printing presses. A bunch of economists who have never worked a day in their collective lives are making policy that literally impacts the state of things on the entire planet. But since the entity has the word "Federal" in the title, it is given the imprimatur of authority and of being a public institution aimed at taking care of us.

But have you ever wondered (you probably have...hopefully you have) why all of the folks who leave the Fed are hired by the big banks and paid salaries with more 0's on it than you have? Why do they get those cushy jobs? They get the jobs because they've actually been working for the big banks for years. They've been taking care of Goldman, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, various private banks, etc. And that's the nature of socialism. The rewards are enjoyed by the big banks; the risks are assumed by the people.

It's been like this for decades...and will be like this for decades because the public has largely been lulled to sleep. It's like having a messy room in your house -- boxes and stuff lying around in a spare bedroom (like my new rental house right now). It stands out for a while....kind of bugs you. But after an amazingly short period of time, you become used to it. You forget about it. It's just part of your reality and is totally unremarkable.

This is who the Fed is. Bernanke testifies before Congress and that gives him some aura of authority -- you can see the various members on the committee ask questions that do nothing but embarrass themselves because they reveal a complete lack of understanding of the process they are supposed to be reviewing. I won't name names because there is no upside and plenty of downside, but there is one particular member of the finance committee who is so stupid that this member shouldn't even be allowed to decide whether to buy whole milk, 2%, 1%, or fat free. Many of the others aren't much better.

Yet the hearings continue, the chairman speaks in obscure language that the committee doesn't understand, but that money managers understand quite well, and make jokes to each other in real time -- translating what the chairman is actually saying. Who knows. If I ever find the time and interest in doing so, I'll act as an interpreter during the next hearing so that you can hear exactly what is being said (which is actually....not much).

Bottom line in this (short???) post: You should be irritated when the Fed is holding the market hostage as we wait with baited breath on their decision. And you should be even more irritated when you see the apologists on CNBC (and other financial outlets) defend the Fed and argue that they are doing such a great job. All you need to know is that savings rates are down and virtually non-existent, economic growth is quite meager, taxes are increasing, cost of living is increasing, finding a full time job (rather than a 29 hour job) is getting increasingly difficult, and regulations are becoming increasingly stifling and intrusive.

So is the Fed -- a PRIVATE bank -- looking out for your best interests, or is it looking out for the best interests of Jaime Dimon, Lloyd Blankfein, etc?

But here's the silver lining -- and it is actually a GOLD lining (though don't buy gold now, it's not going anywhere): You understand the game! You get what's happening. So frankly, even if you're a person of modest means...the person who SHOULD be putting money in your savings account and building a nest egg over the next several years or decades...you can actually behave like the rich folks. You can be in equities. You can learn to manage your money. You can beat the snot out of the savings rate...and you can certainly get to a point where you beat the market every year. It all requires skill...and skill is a byproduct of experience and effort. So stick with it! And if you are losing money because of a lack of experience, then think long-term. Think of this as your education. You don't have to pay tuition to the market by trading a live account and losing money. You can paper trade and get experience without paying tuition. You're auditing the class.

Again, understand the game! But don't accept it as being a healthy or straight-up game. The game is designed to protect The Street. This is why you see Steve Leiseman, Jim Cramer, and Lord knows how many other commentators and analysts praise the Fed for its steady hand through rough seas. (And by the way, I'm not dogging on these people -- they're part of the structure. They're being honest. They are on the "inside". As long as you understand that, then you have an edge).

As long as you get what's happening...you are actually on the "inside". You're one of the inside players who the Fed is protecting. Start thinking like that! There is not a damn thing you can do about it...so just accept it as a constant in YOUR life and be grateful that you understand the game.

Capitalize on it. Enrich yourself as other insiders are doing. And then, at one point in your life, you'll look at everyone else and feel kind of bad that they are struggling so much. But think about it -- wouldn't you rather feel bad that OTHERS are struggling so much rather than feeling bad that YOU and others are struggling so much?

Rise above it by understanding the game. It will pay such dividends that it makes the "yield hog" stocks look like barren porkers.

Dan





And if you're curious what my current portfolio consists of, here it is:
  • GILD Feb Call Options
  • CMI Mar Call Options
  • TRIP Jan 2015 Call Options (long term)
  • AAPL Feb Call Options
  • VRX Jan Call Options (short term)
  • TEX Apr Call Options
  • WFC Apr Call Options
  • GS Apr Call Options
  • FB Mar & Jan 2016 Call Options (short & long term)
  • BTU Jan 2017 Call Options (long term)
  • SPY, SCTY, MDR, PSEC, NAT, SWKS, T common stock (long term)
  • LendingClub.com peer-to-peer notes (long term)
  • Bitcoin (short & long term)
  • Gold, Silver & Palladium (long term)





You may be the hero on FB.  How's everything else going?

I don't know man, buying options is a Recipe For Disaster.  Be careful, good luck, time is not on your side.

Unless maybe selling naked puts...


--------------------
Anxiety is what you make it.


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleDestitute
floss daily

Registered: 11/28/12
Posts: 4,027
Loc: where
Re: Stock Update for December 18, 2013 - The Fed [Re: geokills]
    #19505854 - 02/01/14 11:55 AM (9 years, 11 months ago)

Geokills, what is your view on purchasing a call option for a high yield bond etf.
I can buy a 2 year call @ .85  with a strike for 40 and it's value currently sits at about 40.81, though high yield are more volatile than regular bonds, it's safe to assume that I can potentially double my money with this option, what's your opinion?

Assuming the bond etf follows the assumed trajectory of, conservatively, 5% per year there's a potential that by the end of 2 years it could grow to $44, thus profitting $4/share or $400 per option (400% profit) with minimal risk.


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflinegeokillsA
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Male User Gallery

Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels Flag
Last seen: 3 hours, 32 minutes
Stock Update for March 14, 2014 [Re: geokills]
    #19695405 - 03/14/14 02:03 PM (9 years, 10 months ago)

Just wanted to chime in real quick, it's been so long!  The market has continued to be incredibly resilient, even rising in the face of disappointing headline data over the past few months such as dismal jobs numbers, poor retail and home sales, most of which has been dismissed due to an unseasonably harsh winter.  We have however started to get a little rattled by the Fed's reduction in their quantitative easing program, in addition to unsettled concerns from the Ukraine/Russia dispute as well as concerns over China's slowing growth and the potentially looming credit defaults that could result.

While this could all add up to be a perfect storm that crushes the market, there is still the pesky problem that free capital has very limited options as to where else to go in order to obtain a decent return.  It is also worth noting that bull markets are perpetuated by climbing over the broken backs of bearish investors.  In other words, a consistently strong market necessarily requires a consistently strong bearish argument in order to perpetuate itself.  Why?  Because if everyone were bullish, they would already have all their money fully invested and thus there would be no one else to create the future demand for stocks that ultimately propels them to higher levels.  So long as there are naysayers, those naysayers will have money on the sidelines (or in short positions) that get converted to long positions when they can no longer take the pain of missing out on the strength that they have been betting against.

Of course, even strong markets will have corrections, and it would be reckless not to acknowledge that markets are cyclical and thus no bull market will last forever.  So it is with a cautious tone that I am saying that as long as we don't fall below 1800 on the S&P500, this pullback is a healthy, investible opportunity.  I have been stopped out of a few positions, but there are several stocks sitting along their trendline support that could be good buys very soon, at the first sign that the market is firming up.  I wouldn't want to be very aggressive going into the weekend here, but I do like the following setups:

  • Visa (V) - Consolidating above $200 after a consistently strong multi year performance.  I have a position here but would be most aggressive at signs of support at the $200 level.

  • Micron (MU) - Another consistently strong stock that has a stair-step pattern of higher bases. Currently kissing its 50 day moving average, which has held as support for more than a year.

  • Solar City (SCTY) - One of my most rewarding positions, pulling back to its 50 day moving average.  They do have some accounting issues to straighten out, but this is a low risk opportunity to start a small position, or even be a little more aggressive with a larger position as long as you keep a sell stop just below this week's lows, which correspond with the 50 day moving average.

  • Apple (AAPL) - This stock isn't really working, but it has been consolidating in a wedge pattern that shows support at around $518, which is only a couple of percentage points below the current price.  Of course, you would want to see confirmation that this will break above $540-545 (the last high, home of the stock's 50 day moving average and the top of the consolidation wedge) before getting aggressive.

  • Walter Energy (WLT) - This coal producer (and indeed the whole sector) has been beaten down horribly.  This is also a name that isn't working, but it's been so hated for so long, that I can't help but take a speculative nibble here, via some January 2016 $8 call options that currently trade for < $400 per contract.  It's a small risk, for a longer term position that banks on the thesis of a cyclical turnaround for this sector.


Other stocks I currently hold positions in include SWKS, AGU, TRIP, FB, CLDX and SUNE.  Stocks I am looking to get into are LNG, GLD and CMG.


Note that today's close is not encouraging.  The market appears to be expecting further downside, but as I noted in the third paragraph above, I think that IF we see signs of buying support at 1800 (or higher) on the S&P500, it would be a good idea to be buying as well.  For now, it's best to adhere to disciplined risk management through the use of proper position sizing and stop loss levels, and otherwise sit on your hands (i.e. don't over trade).  Good luck!


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Invisiblememes
Blessed


Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 01/11/05
Posts: 27,785
Loc: In a Tree
Re: Stock Update for March 14, 2014 [Re: geokills]
    #19695442 - 03/14/14 02:14 PM (9 years, 10 months ago)

:cheers:

I was just thinking last night how i was losing faith in our geopolitical environment, and consequently, felt skittish about equities.  i think i had just read an article saying the first developed economy ticked-up rates that day -- new zealand?  i forget.  feds been tapering their pipes for a bit, plan on continuing as such.  weak BRICs (all have had precipitous drops in GDP Growth rates since '11), weak data, cold winter

just feel like not-a-lot's going great for the worlds economy right now.


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Invisiblememes
Blessed


Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 01/11/05
Posts: 27,785
Loc: In a Tree
Re: Stock Update for March 14, 2014 [Re: memes]
    #19697448 - 03/14/14 10:34 PM (9 years, 10 months ago)

in light of my post last night, consumer future confidence is down - lollers


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflineBambi
Friendly Forrest Animal
Male User Gallery


Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 03/22/09
Posts: 1,668
Last seen: 6 months, 29 days
Re: Stock Update for March 14, 2014 [Re: memes]
    #19697921 - 03/15/14 12:34 AM (9 years, 10 months ago)

lately my favorite stock have been hil erbb and spli


--------------------


"I want to read, talk with my friends via the computer, and enjoy my life now that people know I'm not dead. " -Rom Houben


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Invisiblememes
Blessed


Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 01/11/05
Posts: 27,785
Loc: In a Tree
Re: Stock Update for March 14, 2014 [Re: Bambi]
    #19707422 - 03/17/14 06:02 AM (9 years, 10 months ago)

monday morning opening... on the way!

excited to watch the markets this week, with the crimea shit going on and the world's continued poor numbers


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflineBambi
Friendly Forrest Animal
Male User Gallery


Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 03/22/09
Posts: 1,668
Last seen: 6 months, 29 days
Re: Stock Update for March 14, 2014 [Re: memes]
    #19707465 - 03/17/14 06:43 AM (9 years, 10 months ago)

woo excited for this week... kinda pissed i woke up an hour before open tho, so now i just have to wait...  -.-


--------------------


"I want to read, talk with my friends via the computer, and enjoy my life now that people know I'm not dead. " -Rom Houben


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflinegeokillsA
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Male User Gallery

Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels Flag
Last seen: 3 hours, 32 minutes
Stock Update for March 18, 2014 [Re: geokills]
    #19713138 - 03/18/14 12:59 PM (9 years, 10 months ago)

It looks like the market remains happy to look past geopolitical risk and slowing global growth, and continues to show a healthy appetite for stocks as the S&P 500 yet against closes in on an all time high.  In light of this, I have added to AAPL today and initiated small positions in GLD and PCLN.  MU, V and SCTY are bouncing at trendline support as expected.  I will add to MU on a break above $25 and to V on a break above $229 (I already have plenty of SCTY exposure via stock and short puts).  CLDX also showing signs of support, though the pattern is not as attractive as the others mentioned. Tightening up my stop on BIDU, which is not participating today as much as I would have liked to see.


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleDestitute
floss daily

Registered: 11/28/12
Posts: 4,027
Loc: where
Re: Stock Update for December 18, 2013 - The Fed [Re: Destitute]
    #19727666 - 03/21/14 10:32 AM (9 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Galactic_Shitbird said:
Geokills, what is your view on purchasing a call option for a high yield bond etf.
I can buy a 2 year call @ .85  with a strike for 40 and it's value currently sits at about 40.81, though high yield are more volatile than regular bonds, it's safe to assume that I can potentially double my money with this option, what's your opinion?

Assuming the bond etf follows the assumed trajectory of, conservatively, 5% per year there's a potential that by the end of 2 years it could grow to $44, thus profitting $4/share or $400 per option (400% profit) with minimal risk.




If I was more familiar with the idea I would've used it, target etf rose to $41.15+. Could've made 35% profit -commisions in a bit over a month. with a long call If I wanted to keep it


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleAhab McBathsalts
OTD Windmill Administrator
Other User Gallery Ultimate Champion: Blackjack


Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 11/25/02
Posts: 35,107
Loc: Wind Turbine, AB Flag
Re: Stock Update for December 18, 2013 - The Fed [Re: Destitute]
    #19795636 - 04/04/14 05:32 PM (9 years, 9 months ago)

I started a position in general motors about 3 months ago and have been adding to it on the continual weakness and endless stream of bad news.


It doesn't seem like the bad news is forcing it too much lower so it may have bottomed? I'll continue to chase it lower.


--------------------
"Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Invisiblememes
Blessed


Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 01/11/05
Posts: 27,785
Loc: In a Tree
Re: Stock Update for December 18, 2013 - The Fed [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
    #19810759 - 04/07/14 11:23 PM (9 years, 9 months ago)

i haven't been following the news too closely, but seeing as how they claimed bankruptcy, which allows them to not be liable, but their neglect resulted in deaths, but the taxpayer facilitated their bailout which facilitated their immunity....


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleAhab McBathsalts
OTD Windmill Administrator
Other User Gallery Ultimate Champion: Blackjack


Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 11/25/02
Posts: 35,107
Loc: Wind Turbine, AB Flag
Re: Stock Update for December 18, 2013 - The Fed [Re: memes]
    #19812632 - 04/08/14 11:02 AM (9 years, 9 months ago)

They didn't disclose the liability for recall during their bankruptcy even though there is evidence that they knew about it and it resulted in deaths. It is likely they will set up a victim's fund for PR reasons even if it turns out the new GM is not directly liable.

Bankruptcy law is extremely complex.


--------------------
"Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflinegeokillsA
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Male User Gallery

Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels Flag
Last seen: 3 hours, 32 minutes
Stock Update for May 20, 2014 [Re: geokills]
    #20014793 - 05/20/14 12:45 PM (9 years, 8 months ago)

Just checking in to note that the market has been in quite a long period of consolidation now, with the S&P in an ever tightening range, presently between 1850 - 1900 and laying smack dab on its 50 day moving average.  While it is tempting to think that this is evidence that the market is topping out and due for a steeper correction (especially after the huge gains of the past couple of years), it is important to remember that periods of consolidation generally lead to a continuation of the longer term trend.  That trend has been higher, so my bias is for the market to resume its uptrend, although in the meanwhile, this choppy consolidation can drive you nuts and lose you a lot of money if you are trying to actively trade it.

On that note, I have for the most part been sitting on my hands over the past couple of months.  Now, with the S&P and Nasdaq's bollinger bands tightening up, along with the 50 day moving average coming in to meet the current price, I am starting to keep a closer eye on things and getting ready to pounce.  Some of my favorite setups at the current time include TRIP, PCLN, BIDU and CBI, as they have all come in and have started to form a base right above their 200 day moving averages.  This allows you to put on a low risk trade, since you can use the 200 day moving average as your "I'm wrong" level -- if the stock trades below it, get out and take only a small loss.  If however this longer term moving average provides support, you can potentially catch a really nice bounce on these stocks that have longer term uptrends in place.

I also like AAPL here, since they will be debuting their new iPhone presumably in August and have been hiring a lot of experts in biometrics, which would seem to indicate that they will be introducing a new product or at least a product that includes significant technological updates that will make it desirable to a larger market.  Since the stock is expensive and not really trading near support (although I do think that the $600 level has the potential to become support over the next few weeks), I am cautiously involved via a small $595/$675 bull call spread position that expires in August.

Not much else to say or do right now, just journaling my thoughts so I can check back in a little while and review.  I was definitely wrong on my SCTY position that I mentioned in my last post, even though I still believe that the company's long term prospects are great.  I still have a handful of $60 calls that expire in January 2016 (600+ days away), but it's been a pretty miserable position to hold! :undecided:


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleAhab McBathsalts
OTD Windmill Administrator
Other User Gallery Ultimate Champion: Blackjack


Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 11/25/02
Posts: 35,107
Loc: Wind Turbine, AB Flag
Re: Stock Update for May 20, 2014 [Re: geokills]
    #20016050 - 05/20/14 05:03 PM (9 years, 8 months ago)

What do you make of bond yields running lower?

There is an increased geopolitical instability in Ukraine as well as Thailand, and continued Eurozone weakness, but I've often heard that bonds are smarter than equity markets.


--------------------
"Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflinegeokillsA
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Male User Gallery

Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels Flag
Last seen: 3 hours, 32 minutes
Re: Stock Update for May 20, 2014 [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
    #20019773 - 05/21/14 11:53 AM (9 years, 8 months ago)

The persistently low bond yields are of concern, as they would seem to indicate a bias towards deflationary pressures which are inherently toxic to highly leveraged growth oriented economies.  Of course, many equity investors might tell you that the low yields are an indication that "easy money" as manifest through loose monetary policy via the Federal Reserve is here to stay and that it is actually positive since it will help spur economic growth.  Others may postulate that the lack of growth on the heels of these low rates is indicative that manipulating monetary policy cannot resolve a larger systemic issue.  Who's right?  Only time will tell.

I agree with the sentiment that the bond market tends to be more disciplined and accurate in its approach to whole economic analysis than the equity markets.  It could very well be that the easy money has already been made, and not necessarily referring to only the past few years but perhaps the better part of the past century.  Investors (and the western world in aggregate) have benefitted handily from a period of high leverage, but the shock to this paradigm that we experienced in 2008 was definitely a shot across the bow that may mark a new period of economic stagnation as the debts are slowly paid off.

On the other hand, the punch bowl runs deep... there's no way to know where we head from here, so the best thing I think there is to do is to diversify assets, don't over-leverage yourself, and actively manage the risk of downside against the risk of missing further upside.


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleLunarEclipse
Enlil's Official Story
Male User Gallery

Registered: 10/31/04
Posts: 21,407
Loc: Building 7
Re: Stock Update for May 20, 2014 [Re: geokills]
    #20019815 - 05/21/14 12:08 PM (9 years, 8 months ago)

The low bond yields point to Fed policy, low rates worldwide as we are actually 1+ percent higher yield than Germany on the 10 year.  Even the dog Spain has low rates now. 

I can't imagine printing more fake money would be somehow deflationary, but in spite of low rates, the economy sucks.  This is the other message of the low and getting lower rates.  The fake money would seem to make people want to avoid inflation, but of course other than the things that matter like fuel and food, demand and prices are down.  Oh of course health care which I think is another real drag on the economy with that whole BS program that no one can afford...


--------------------
Anxiety is what you make it.


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflinegeokillsA
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Male User Gallery

Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels Flag
Last seen: 3 hours, 32 minutes
Stock Update for May 22, 2014 [Re: geokills]
    #20024315 - 05/22/14 10:19 AM (9 years, 8 months ago)

Quote:

geokills said:

... with the S&P and Nasdaq's bollinger bands tightening up, along with the 50 day moving average coming in to meet the current price, I am starting to keep a closer eye on things and getting ready to pounce.  Some of my favorite setups at the current time include TRIP, PCLN, BIDU and CBI ...




The markets appear to be making an attempt at breaking out right now, though I suspect it won't do so decisively today.  While TRIP, PCLN, BIDU and CBI are working, I would also like to add FB to the list of stocks that I am actively courting.  FB has been consolidating in a wedge pattern between its 200 day moving average just below the current price and its 50 day moving average just overhead, and today is battling to break above its 50 day and out of its wedge to the upside.  I am taking this trade with a secondary stop below today's intraday low, and my primary stop below yesterday's low of $58.25 (~4% below the current price).

I am also adding more exposure to the biotechnology sector in my portfolio.  I have been holding MDVN for some time via January 2016 $60 calls.  Today I am adding two additional biotech's via a slightly more conservative strategy known as a bull call spread.  SLXP is near its all time high and finding strength at its 50 day moving average, I am buying the January 2015 $110 calls and reducing my cost basis by selling the January 2015 $135 calls.  I am also going to add BIIB to my portfolio since it has been grinding out a base along its 200 day moving average and is today breaking through its 50 day moving average.  This trade is also being done via a bull call spread, whereby I am buying the January 2015 $300 calls and selling the January 2015 $350 calls.

Although yesterday and the day before offered better (i.e. lower risk) entries, I am starting to lean heavier on my long exposure by adding to my working positions today, while mitigating the risk of my new positions by using bull call spreads instead of outright calls or long stock.  The recent trading range is still tight enough that you can place your stops fairly close to the current prices.  Of course, I would advocate starting with small positions in stocks that have already started to lift off of their well defined support levels.  This will allow you to keep a slightly looser stop in order to avoid getting shaken out of the position if we do continue in sideways consolidation for a while longer.  In recognition of the recent market action, I would not be surprised to see more sideways action, with today's attempt at a breakout on the S&P ultimately falling back into the range, but the market is showing some definitive signs of life, so I wouldn't wait altogether to start buying if you don't already have some long exposure.


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflinegeokillsA
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Male User Gallery

Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels Flag
Last seen: 3 hours, 32 minutes
Stock Update for May 30, 2014 [Re: geokills]
    #20060179 - 05/30/14 08:27 AM (9 years, 7 months ago)

After several months of choppy consolidation, the market has finally broken out to the upside.  Those tight bollinger bands that I've mentioned so often over the years (thanks to the lessons taught from Dan Fitzpatrick and John Bollinger), indicate a period of increasingly low volatility that, once broken, often creates a move in very meaningful way.  Because the consolidation in the S&P had been occurring just above its 50 day moving average (and after a prolonged uptrend), a continuation seemed probable and a continuation is what we've been given this week.  On a percentage basis, my portfolio is up over 16% since I made my post here one week ago indicating that the time was nearing to get ready to pounce and that my bias was to the upside.

It feels good to have crushed this move - having one of the best one week returns I've ever experienced - and while I believe that it is likely that we will see higher highs throughout the summer, it is imperative not to get carried away when the market throws cash your way.  Often when I've felt like this, it is not long until I end up giving back a big portion of the profits I have gained (and I will humbly admit that I have at times given back all of the profits I have made in any given upside move after it has run its course), largely because of overconfidence and a misinterpretation that I am the sole reason I have been making this money and that I can just continue to double down to make more and more.  False.  There are periods when the market creates a setup that allows you to easily define risk, and those are the periods when it is appropriate to play a bigger hand because you won't stand to lose as much if you're wrong, and you can gain a whole lot if you're right.  However now that there has been a big move off of support, the exceptionally low risk entries are necessarily gone.

This isn't to say sell everything, far from it, but I have cut some of my winning positions in half, raised stops on all of my shorter term options positions (those that expire in less than two months), and have changed some of my long call positions into call spreads by selling a higher strike out-of-the-money call option that will help protect the lower strike calls I previously purchased if the stock does pull back a bit.  If the stock does pull back, I can decide to buy back the call I sold once it has lost some value, in effect lowering the cost basis in the already profitable long call that I have been holding.  Or I can just let the entire spread position to continue to run, even though the call I am short will ultimately cap the profits in the call I am long, should the stock price exceed the strike price of the short call.

Bottom line is this, the market is going higher, though not in a straight line.  I would expect to see it retrace a bit of the move we saw this week, and that should be a welcome event, as it would allow you to pick up additional exposure in names that you want to own, but that may have gotten away from you.  I am talking about stocks like UPS, TRIP, PCLN, FB, AAPL, BA, CBI, BIIB, SUNE and HES.  PSX is looking attractive right here, as it remains in a very tight range right above its 50 day moving average, knocking at the door of new all time highs.  EXPE is also looking fairly good, coiling right above its 50 day, with the uptrending 200 day moving average not far below.  And study up on spreads, they are a great way to use leverage without as much risk as simply going long a bunch of options.  Particularly useful when you feel that you may have missed a move, but want to get involved on a longer term basis without getting shaken out of your position.

As always, good luck!


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflinegeokillsA
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Male User Gallery

Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels Flag
Last seen: 3 hours, 32 minutes
Stock Update for June 5, 2014 [Re: geokills]
    #20087552 - 06/05/14 10:31 AM (9 years, 7 months ago)

The European Central Bank today announced the unprecedented policy move of creating a negative interest rate, with the idea that it will encourage local banks to push their money out into the real economy via lending, instead of settling for the security of the central bank's balance sheet, because it will now cost banks money to park their capital with the ECB.  Further comments were made that indicate the ECB's willingness to enact a financial engineering scenario in part similar to the quantitative easing policies that have pushed US capital markets to all time highs over the past few years, although it is not clear whether the ECB has the legal authority to take action to the extent that is being presumed.

This is very bullish for the stock market, and if you look at the S&P500 chart on a weekly setting, you will see that we are in a definitive volatility expansion to the upside.  The uptrend remains intact, and hitting 2000 seems like a foregone conclusion.  Of course, it's a little hard to buy right now (which is why I have been pounding the table for the past two weeks), but if you have idle cash and are not long, you really should be putting at least some of your money to work in longer term positions.  I might wait until tomorrow however, to see if the jobs number and some profit taking ahead of the weekend will offer better entries.

SCTY appears to be forming a double bottom right under its 200 day moving average.  It has been a weak stock for several months and is in a definitive downtrend, but it looks like the tide could be turning.  I added to my January 2016 $60 calls and bought some January 2016 $50 calls to pair with them, in addition to a shorter term July $48/$52 bull call spread that was put in place yesterday for $143 per spread (risking $143 to gain $257 if SCTY is above $52 by June 27th).

TRIP and AAPL are still absolutely killing it, and most of the stocks I follow are looking very nice as holds.  If you are looking for an entry in stocks that haven't run as far yet, I would take a look at KSU, FB, EXPE, CBI and PSX.  Note, I have positions in all of these.  If you can't decide what to buy, just buy some SPY and QQQ for a diversified basket of holdings.


As an aside, I read this article last weekend that I found rather shocking.  It indicates that Ben Bernanke, former chairmen of the Federal Reserve and responsible party for the Fed's aforementioned quantitative easing program, has been giving private speeches to large hedge fund managers and generally well connected wealthy people, in effect giving them an inside scoop on future policy that I would consider along the lines of insider trading.  To be fair, Ben did wait the required two months after retiring from his post to begin musing on Fed policy, but for crying out loud, this guy gets paid to come talk to a group of rich investors, and produces projections that gives those select few investors the confidence to put more of their money into the market (which they have undoubtedly made a killing on in the past few weeks).  Now maybe Ben is wrong about the longer term Fed policy, but the guy had been sitting at the helm for years and worked closely with the current Fed chair Janet Yellen, so it is reasonable to expect that he has some idea of how things will move forward in the intermediate term.  It's crazy that it is legal at all for him to speak about Fed policy so soon after having been in his position as head of arguably the most watched market indicator.  Seems criminal, but I suppose it's the status quo of a tangled bureaucracy.


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Jump to top Pages: < First | < Back | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | Next > | Last >

Shop: PhytoExtractum Buy Bali Kratom Powder   Kraken Kratom Kratom Capsules for Sale   Unfolding Nature Unfolding Nature: Being in the Implicate Order   Original Sensible Seeds Bulk Cannabis Seeds   North Spore North Spore Mushroom Grow Kits & Cultivation Supplies


Similar ThreadsPosterViewsRepliesLast post
* Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects
( 1 2 3 4 ... 500 501 )
geokillsA 250,330 10,002 01/27/24 05:04 PM
by geokills
* Does this look legit? The24HourMC 1,559 1 03/01/10 02:43 PM
by geokills
* Helium Network [US]: Low Cost Mobile Service with ROI for Providing Distributed Connectivity geokillsA 205 0 01/21/24 10:48 AM
by geokills
* Pretty good interest on my savings, but best strat? skOsH 190 4 01/21/24 03:40 PM
by Bungmurphy

Extra information
You cannot start new topics / You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled / BBCode is enabled
Moderator: geokills, automan
296,585 topic views. 0 members, 1 guests and 0 web crawlers are browsing this forum.
[ Show Images Only | Sort by Score | Print Topic ]
Search this thread:

Copyright 1997-2024 Mind Media. Some rights reserved.

Generated in 0.037 seconds spending 0.008 seconds on 15 queries.