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OfflineCannashroom
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Re: Notes on Dividend Paying Stocks vs Bonds, and Share Buybacks. [Re: The_Aviator]
    #17744273 - 02/04/13 02:34 PM (10 years, 11 months ago)

Well Done!

I Sold some too soon.  I didn't think it was going to go up so quickly, was hoping to flip some shares but ended up leaving lots on the table.  I still have 16 420 shares right now.  Hoping it goes down a bit and I'll add more.  Its overbought when looking at TA.  But if this crazy volume continues It should consolidate up here.

I made a bunch on the other pot stocks with my profits though.  PHOT, CBIS, MWIP, ERBB, GRNH and HEMP were all running with MJNA.  I wonder if they will all crash after MJNA drops or if they will continue with the profits.

Now there is a bunch of news about the bills being introduced in congress.

MJNA has had record $$ volume the past 2 days.  Maybe congress is using their insider trader abilities because they know something is coming.

MJNA is overvalued based on its current revenue.  But with the sector opening up it could be considered very undervalued speculatively.

It is currently in a speculative price range. .20-.30 could be strong support, but it could get volatile up here.


--------------------
"A human being is part of the whole, called by us 'Universe'; a part limited in time and space. He experiences himself, his thoughts and feelings as something separated from the rest -- a kind of optical delusion of his consciousness.

This delusion is a kind of prison for us, restricting us to our personal desires and affection for a few persons nearest us.

Our task must be to free ourselves from this prison by widening our circle of compassion to embrace all living creatures and the whole nature in its beauty.

Nobody is able to achieve this completely but striving for such achievement is, in itself, a part of the liberation and a foundation for inner security."

Albert Einstein


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Offlineben_dover0802
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Re: Notes on Dividend Paying Stocks vs Bonds, and Share Buybacks. [Re: Cannashroom]
    #17898789 - 03/03/13 06:23 PM (10 years, 10 months ago)

Hi everyone, its been a long time since I posted on here.  Hope everyone made some gains on this years rally and is profitable in the future!  Anyway I have been in and out of many stocks since I last updated... I have been doing okay - I was beating the shit out of the S&P a few months ago with like 30% overall gains in a month, but since lost some and now am about par with it - maybe even a tad under :frown:.  Should have just taken a break! 

Anyway right now the market is very close to previous years resistance, but seems to be strong, and came back strong after monday's shit show.  Because of this, I am long on some stocks that I think the fundamentals are good, as well as VXX incase the market pulls back like I kind of predict it will.

Actually I sold most of my longs on friday to be honest so I am in :

BIDU -25% This is just in a declining range for the past year but the fundamentals are quite attractive compared to previous valuations it once had and looks like it put in a temporary bottom. It should rally if the overall market does.

JOEZ - 10% a small jeans company that has good technicals (established uptrend) and great growth w/ no debt. It could continue to see good gains (many new store openings as well as earnings + revenue gains) from here but keep a stop under the 20 dma if you decide to be long with me.

VXX - 40% I haven't always had the best of luck with the volatility etf but the point is to be in it for a small amount of time, it can really move fast. In fact, I bought this on friday's close and sold most of monday for about a 13% gain.  Nice! If the market pulls back - this should increase and act as a hedge to my longs.  The inverse of the VXX is the XIV which has shown pretty dang good gains in the past year - I also look at this to see if it looks like it could decrease hence the VXX will increase.

Umm I do have a "shopping list" of stocks I like this year and check frequently.... They include:

XIN*** Chinese real estate stock. One of my current favorites that I was in last week but sold because the stock has been up about 30% in the past week, I made some good profits, and wanted to keep them. I want to buy this bad boy on any weakness, averaging in - I think its likely to AT LEAST double within the year.  Even after this rally the fundamentals are amazing a P/E of about 3-4, its peers are closer to 13.  Its making big profits, the last earnings announcement last week really gave me confidence - read it on seeking alpha if you want. To put it in perspective, it made over $68 mil last QUARTER, a ~2.5 times increase over last 4th quarter, and the entire stocks market cap is 430 mil. It is said that this stock is so cheap even though profitable and growing because it is from china (although listed on the NYSE) and the numbers could be fudged.  Although this is a possibility, reading the earnings report makes me doubt this.  Although they are quite profitable with their projects in China, and growth is high, they are expanding to building in the U.S. (NY specifically now - others coming) Just increased the dividend.  Even mentioned that they know investors aren't pricing the stock to the multiples of its peers and said they just intend to keep growing and the price will catch up. Anyway now it looks like the market is noticing them now and XIN is in an established uptrend.  A very long (years) possible cup and handle pattern may be forming (resistance around $7.65 - it is at $5.90 now), but I think it could just blow through that resistance if there is any @ $7.65 because of the valuation (might not be since thay was years ago).  Anyway I see this stock hitting $10 soon.  I would recommend averaging in as well. I am not even sure if it was a good idea selling Fri but I think it should pullback. 

Other stocks I like for the year:
NCR
BAC (or other banks - C has been killing it)
GFA
MTW
NOK
LEN (or DHI - more risky HOV if you like homebuilders)
SIRI
LCC
S
CX
F (or GM)
AAPL
TEX
LNG
AMD
MU
maybe ANR

These are what I look at frequently and think will see more expensive days soon, although my real watch list is about 10 times larger at least.  Just remember to stay on the right side of the overall market but don't be afraid to be more aggressive on best stocks when the market is trending up imo.

EDIT: Other stocks that look juicy (or may within the year) that you may not know about:

LPHI (insurance company but technicals and insider buys are what get me excited - just broke through resistance could be a double easy if it takes off and like I said recently there have been big insider purchases)
ALU - Large French communications company - its been beaten down hard in the past few years due to being unprofitable and supposedly bad executive decisions, however, it recently just doubled in the past few months and has had a pretty big pullback since - could be the start of a long term uptrend.

BBRY - Blackberry, most ppl know about this stock, a lot depends on the new phone they are launching.  However the company has a lot of cash, bullish technicals, a large short interest, I would keep an eye on this stock and not let it take off without you)

AMCX - AMC TV, these guys recently have been making some great shows like Breaking Bad, Walking Dead, Mad Men and more.  Its been beating expectations recently - shows bullish technicals (very obvious accumulation even on the last earnings weakness), and has a reasonable p/e to growth ratio.

CHK - large profitable, established energy company that is cheaper than it has been in a long time on an absolute basis.  Some big insider buys have taken place in the last year at prices close to the current one. Good safe play here I think

CNDO (Biotech stock getting upgrades and high price targets - big gains recently but many price targets are doubles from here)



Okay! That should keep you busy for a little bit to look at some new stocks.


Edited by ben_dover0802 (03/03/13 07:25 PM)


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Offlineben_dover0802
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Re: Notes on Dividend Paying Stocks vs Bonds, and Share Buybacks. [Re: ben_dover0802]
    #17901751 - 03/04/13 09:12 AM (10 years, 10 months ago)

XIN got hit hard today (down ~13% at open) for reasons I do not know exactly, maybe everyone just thought it went up too fast, which is entirely possible.  My decision to sell out completely Friday turned out to be a good one.  Anyway, as with the plan, I am averaging in and bought about a 2/5ths position today at $5.12 when I noticed it starting to trickle upward.  Seems like the right move, as I am typing this it is $5.37 and closing the gap.  Wouldn't be a bad place to start building a position if anyone is interested in this one with me.


Also today I ended up selling my BIDU, just wasn't working for me - ended up with a loss of about 4% from where I bought it on Friday, I just didn't want it to get any bigger. Used that money to buy LPHI @ $4.22 - seems to be a good choice as long as I keep an eye on it and not lose unrealized profits.

Good luck all.


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InvisibleAhab McBathsalts
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Re: Notes on Dividend Paying Stocks vs Bonds, and Share Buybacks. [Re: ben_dover0802]
    #17905061 - 03/04/13 08:23 PM (10 years, 10 months ago)

The VXX might actually be a good place to be because there are lots of people that believe that the market has topped because of the resistance at these levels, and a sharp correction could be just around the corner.

I have some 40.00 Call options for Tesla motors for May 18th expiry. I'm betting they blow out the quarterly results.


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"Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."


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Offlineben_dover0802
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Re: Notes on Dividend Paying Stocks vs Bonds, and Share Buybacks. [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
    #17905458 - 03/04/13 09:35 PM (10 years, 10 months ago)

Yea that's what I am hoping with th VXX.  It didn't work out for me today but the s&p is at resistance pretty much so I will know if I am right or wrong very soon. 

As for Tesla, I haven't been following the stock, but it doesn't look like too bad of an entry here actually if you believe in the company, considering it just had a pullback in a multi-month uptrend. 

Those new model S's are freaking sweet by the way.  Oh man I wish I had the coin to buy one (maybe someday :wink:), very stylish/luxurious and I read the largest battery package can go 300 miles on a single charge....Very impressive.  However, at the current price the car is unaffordable to the majority of citizens.  I do like the way they are innovating though and expect a more affordable model to come in the future.  I think the company has the potential to really grow and profitability seems very close relatively speaking.  I am adding this one to my watch list.  Thank you for the reminder of this company - I was drooling over their new product last week.


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Offlineben_dover0802
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Re: Notes on Dividend Paying Stocks vs Bonds, and Share Buybacks. [Re: ben_dover0802]
    #17912630 - 03/06/13 10:35 AM (10 years, 10 months ago)

XIN bouncing off the 20 dma if anyone is interested/following me....


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Notes on Dividend Paying Stocks vs Bonds, and Share Buybacks. [Re: ben_dover0802]
    #17913133 - 03/06/13 12:42 PM (10 years, 10 months ago)

XIN scares the shit out of me.  The Chinese government is intentionally trying to cool their housing market, and given the uncertainty of the numbers coming out of Chinese companies, I just don't have the balls to trade it.  On a purely technical basis, sure, but selling volume over the last two days was huge, and the bounce today is much lighter, so even the technicals are not inspiring great confidence.  If involved, I would definitely keep my stop below today's low of $4.76.

Haven't posted an update in a while 'cause I've just been letting some small positions ride and traveling a lot lately (preventing me from actively trading in any sort of responsible fashion).  I did add to a position in JOY today, as well as take a starter position in AAPL.  Still holding my basket of high yielding common stocks, as well as the following call options: AAPL Jun $430, FB Jan 2015 $32, FB Apr $27, JOY Apr $62.50, SPY Apr $150's.

My bias is to the upside, as evidenced.  Though I am still at about 50% cash, I am maintaining considerable exposure through the used of the leveraged call options.


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Offlineben_dover0802
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Re: Notes on Dividend Paying Stocks vs Bonds, and Share Buybacks. [Re: geokills]
    #17915416 - 03/06/13 08:02 PM (10 years, 10 months ago)

Yea, it is a risky one and that article isn't the most inspiring but I still believe in the valuation if they are indeed true.  My stop will be strict at the 20 dma. Looks like support to me. 

To add to the risk I bought some MCP today, this one has been a real downer for a year but found support at $6.00 before (then it shot up to $12.00 in about a month :eek:).  That is where it is now, and what really made me take a chance is the large 90 million dollar insider purchase @ 6.00 as well as the CEO who about doubled up his investment and added 100k to his exposure to MCP.


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InvisibleAhab McBathsalts
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Re: Notes on Dividend Paying Stocks vs Bonds, and Share Buybacks. [Re: ben_dover0802]
    #17921152 - 03/07/13 07:55 PM (10 years, 10 months ago)

My Tesla options are up from 1.05 on last Tuesday to 1.70ish today, but I'm going to hold on to them until they report their next quarter.


I just dove into some Pier 1 Import call options, April 20th expiry at 24.00 Strike.

If housing and Home Depot are doing so well, I'm betting on a blow out quarter for this furnishing retailer.


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"Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."


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InvisibleAhab McBathsalts
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Re: Notes on Dividend Paying Stocks vs Bonds, and Share Buybacks. [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
    #18011587 - 03/25/13 10:34 PM (10 years, 10 months ago)

Tesla slid back down to about .60, and have re-ralled to 1.40.

I doubled my position when they came down, and they are profitable, but Elon tweeted today there will be big news from the company on Thursday. I really want the stock to hit about 40.00 and my options to pop to 2.65.


My tax refund is going into some VLO options, probably for a 46 or 47 strike for May.


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"Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."


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InvisibleAhab McBathsalts
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Re: Notes on Dividend Paying Stocks vs Bonds, and Share Buybacks. [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
    #18011812 - 03/25/13 11:26 PM (10 years, 10 months ago)

Here is kind of a nice graphic on why the US refiners, especially VLO is going to blow out the quarter again, and again for several years to come


http://www.cbc.ca/edmonton/interactive/bubble/


Plus, the oil isn't even being sold at WTI prices, as I understand most is being shipped off and sold at brent prices to Asia or Europe.


--------------------
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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Notes on Dividend Paying Stocks vs Bonds, and Share Buybacks. [Re: geokills]
    #18027722 - 03/29/13 10:28 AM (10 years, 9 months ago)

Just wanted to share a post Dan Fitzpatrick of Stock Market Mentor and Option Market Mentor made yesterday, as I think it's rather poignant:
Quote:


When the S&P closes at an all time high, it sets up a very interesting dynamic.
Assuming it does this today (and it sure looks like that's gonna happen). The SPX
continues to print higher highs and lows on a 5-minute chart, though volume was
a bit low. So if this happens today, imagine what the story is: "On the last trading
day of the first quarter, the S&P broke through to a new high."

So what will be the impact of that headline on traders? One impact that will likely
not be in the cards is, "Eh. That's interesting. Let's just sit around and play cards.
Looks like the market is doing fine."

No, one scenario could very well be -- "Man, we had a pretty good quarter. We're
right at resistance. I know the S&P closed at a high, but we're still basically at
resistance with many stocks overextended. Let's take some profits now. We've
gotta raise some cash because we want to buy stocks at lower levels." In this
case, the market sells off.

Another scenario could be, "Oops. The Indexes are at all-time highs and continue
to move. We've been sitting on the sidelines like true knuckleheads waiting for
the pullback that everyone we talk to seems to be waiting for. At some point, all
those patient bulls are going to turn into stealth buyers. They're going to start
putting that money to work slowly, fearful of buying at the top...but even more
fearful of not being in. In this case, the market rallies.


So, my sense for Monday is that the market will make a significant move...I just
don't know which direction. I believe that any decline will be muted as money
comes in for the usual reason -- Gang, there is no alternative. Uncle Ben has
ensured that you will ultimately put your dough in the market. All you
retirees...the ones with retirement accounts that need to sustain you in your
golden years? Well, you no longer have the opportunity to be in fixed income
securities because bonds are actually in a bubble. The yields are incredibly low
because prices are artificially high due to the Fed's activities. So that's not gonna
work for you. Sorry.

So money will continue to come into the market, with those retirement accounts
being shifted into equities as the only alternative for the baby boomers. And that
money is going to buoy stocks and help us make a lot of money here. Be a bull.
It pays well. Be a bear? You sound smart...and you are quite impressive to those
in the soup line with you.

At some point in time, the money inflows will dry up and money will start flowing
out -- because an increasing number of baby boomers will stop putting money
in...and start taking money out to finance their living. That will put pressure on
equities. And it will be gradual pressure that isn't reported at first. But after it
becomes apparent through abnormal price activity where equities do not behave
"as they should", that dynamic will be reported on....and that will make matters
worse -- not much different than the banks in Cyprus. Once they are opened,
everybody will be taking the max that they can each day out of the market. I
think the big investment is in printing companies -- because they're going to have
to print a massive amount of Euros to stuff in those ATM machines, which will
start smoking by the end of each day.

Anyway, as the baby boomers start withdrawing their dough and selling stocks,
that's about the time when Gentle Ben will start pulling back and withdrawing
support for the bond market, thus pushing bond prices lower (as a result of the
magical disappearing demand of the Fed) and yields higher. At that point, two
things will happen. First, typical traders like you and me will start shifting a bit of
our portfolio back into bonds because the return is a bit more enticing than it was
when you had an inverse Dire Straits model: "Nothin' for Money". So that shift in
assets will put further pressure on equities. Second, because the market is rolling
over, a negative feedback loop will be created where increasing numbers of
people become concerned. They see their accounts declining in value...they see
the news stories...and they start selling.

Pop! There goes the bubble.

I truly believe that things will happen this way. Actually, I cannot envision another
outcome. I could be wrong (I hope I'm wrong, so long as the ultimate scenario is
more attractive than the nice utopian dynamic I'm so happily painting).

But this is the reality now: ALL of the things I am saying in this note are not
relevant TODAY! Equities are where you want to be. Your goal is to grow your
wealth, expand your education, and learn how to stay ahead of that curve. You
won't be one who gets hurt by Mr. Bubble. You'll be the one happily sitting in a
warm bath watching Mr. Bubble float around the room and pop one after the
other. You will be on the right side of the trend.

Right now, the right side is the long side.

Be long, be strong, and be intellectually curious.

Dan




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Invisiblememes
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Re: Notes on Dividend Paying Stocks vs Bonds, and Share Buybacks. [Re: geokills] * 1
    #18038047 - 03/31/13 04:06 PM (10 years, 9 months ago)

Great post, Geo.


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Offlineben_dover0802
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Re: Notes on Dividend Paying Stocks vs Bonds, and Share Buybacks. [Re: memes]
    #18042636 - 04/01/13 03:16 PM (10 years, 9 months ago)

Whoa, got lucky by being long some shares in Tesla today, I saw another post about someone involved in it, did you score big today?  Hope so, anyway, the CEO says he has even bigger news tomorrow...


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InvisibleAhab McBathsalts
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Re: Notes on Dividend Paying Stocks vs Bonds, and Share Buybacks. [Re: ben_dover0802]
    #18045316 - 04/02/13 07:42 AM (10 years, 9 months ago)

Yeah, my options were up about 400%. It was lucrative as tits.

I sold out and put my profits in some CAT puts for their earnings, QCOM calls, and VLO calls.


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Offlineben_dover0802
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Re: Notes on Dividend Paying Stocks vs Bonds, and Share Buybacks. [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
    #18049249 - 04/02/13 09:25 PM (10 years, 9 months ago)

Nice, I sold half - I plan to buy it back I am just seeing if I can get it a little cheaper. Going to buy it back either way if I have to pay more than I sold it for, but would wait until either it pulls back and or goes above yesterdays intraday high.  I really like the idea as a whole of a realistic (although expensive) electric car that can go a fair distance in a single charge.  I plan to hold this one for a while.  BTW Tesla's plan is to create an electric car with good range that is more affordable to the middle class (~$30,000), I feel that would be a huge seller. Tesla knows how to make an attractive car with realistic range right now, battery technology is improving though and it will only get better.  Tesla is currently in front of the pack when it comes to electric vehicles in my opinion.

Now I know Tesla doesn't sell NEARLY as much cars as Ford or GM, but the market cap is much smaller than those two (7 to 10 times), and wayyy smaller than Toyota(34 times).  That in itself doesn't mean much but in the coming years if Tesla gains considerable market share, which I believe it could, the shares could increase dramatically. The p/e should be higher than other car companies as the growth is obviously much higher. 
Anyway, I am excited about Tesla's growth potential and if I was in the market to buy a new car, which I should be in about 2-3 years, I would seriously consider a Tesla.  The Model S is beautiful, efficient, and beastly. Over the course of its life (which is supposedly going to be longer than conventional cars as there is much less moving parts - time will tell if this is true but it makes sense) it will save tens of thousands on gasoline costs. 

My other stocks have been doing alright, I see some buying opportunities here. Actually F and GM aren't in bad spots right here and have a bright future in my opinion, Ford more so I think. I was in Ford for a while but sold as I saw a small pullback coming, which I was right about, may buy F again. 

My current positions:
GLUU
XIN
CHK
KBH (purchased today)
BBRY
C
TSLA

Most have been doing alright, I have been riding GLUU down unfortunately but plan to dedicate more $ to it once it finds support and starts moving up. It is a fast mover with grand slam potential gains. Look at volume recently - way larger on up days vs down days, its been getting picked up big by insiders over the past 6 months at about the price it is now, has a good business model for the present and future (mobile games - they want to start making games for smart T.V's), and look at a 3 or 5 year chart you can see the very favorable risk vs reward. A mental stop is just under $2, which would be a big loss from here, I would lighten up before it got that low but would stay involved unless it broke $2.  Now would be a good time to buy this guy - I have a feeling it would be a winner from here if you just give it some months or a year.

Some stocks I would probably buy if I had more capital, or strongly consider - but at the right time!:
JOEZ
TJX,UA (retail doing well - LULU isn't bad)
BAC (financials in general are doing well too)
F
S
DSX
LCC

I will probably buy LCC once it is finds support, which could be tomorrow.

Good luck to everyone, it is always nice to have that on your side.
Cheers!


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InvisibleAhab McBathsalts
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Re: Notes on Dividend Paying Stocks vs Bonds, and Share Buybacks. [Re: ben_dover0802]
    #18049807 - 04/02/13 11:17 PM (10 years, 9 months ago)

Blackberry is too bold for me.

The US refiners got hit hard today, but VLO fell below its 50 day MA. I'm hesitant to put in more.

I might save up some cash and go long on CMI, especially if there is a nice dip in price this week. Jimmy C was talking about how shitty the job reports on friday is going to be, so I'll hold off on any purchases until then, but my caterpillar puts have been doing pretty good.


Fuck it. Go hard boys. The money is out there.


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Stock Update for April 2, 2013 - SPY, NAT [Re: ben_dover0802]
    #18049898 - 04/02/13 11:33 PM (10 years, 9 months ago)

So I really haven't been trading much.  Many of my trading positions have been closed, some for profit, some for loss.  Most of my portfolio is aggregated in to the same ol' basket of trusty high yielding stocks that I've mentioned for years (AGNC, NLY, PSEC), in addition to call options on the SPY.  Frankly, the market has been a beast, and the simple SPY position, which has required the least management, has performed the best (with the exception of those AAPL calls I bought a few weeks back and sold right as they started to roll over - but that was more lucky timing than anything else).

I am buying one specific stock for my retirement portfolio, NAT.  It's a bulk shipper that just made a secondary offering of shares at $9.60.  It's had a nice little pop in the weeks running up to this, and the secondary brought the share price right back down to its prior base.  It's got a nice ~5% yield and the company isn't going out of business anytime soon, so I'll be happy to hold it for the cash flow while I wait for its business to improve and the stock to appreciate.

Other than that, I'm happy to ride the SPY.  Monday's low volume pullback and today's nice little pop is encouraging.  Granted, the index has been running strong since November (and more generally since September), but I'm betting that we'll see 1600 on the S&P in the near future.

[Edit: Figures that the day after I post this, the S&P drops 1% hah! :flowstone:]

PS.  For those who don't own any silver or gold, this looks like a decent place to pick some up.  APMEX is running a sale on their Canadian Silver Maple leafs through 3pm CDT on April 4th ($2.49 over spot for any qty): http://www.apmex.com/Product/72463/2013_1_oz_Silver_Canadian_Maple_Leaf.aspx


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··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
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Edited by geokills (04/03/13 11:50 AM)


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Offlinesofa_king_happy
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Registered: 01/29/10 Happy 14th Shroomiversary!
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Re: Notes on Dividend Paying Stocks vs Bonds, and Share Buybacks. [Re: Cannashroom]
    #18083589 - 04/09/13 06:39 PM (10 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

Cannashroom said:
MJNA



Just a heads up MJNA has a boiler room and several promo newsletters behind it.


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Invisiblememes
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Registered: 01/11/05
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Re: Notes on Dividend Paying Stocks vs Bonds, and Share Buybacks. [Re: sofa_king_happy]
    #18083792 - 04/09/13 07:32 PM (10 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

sofa_king_happy said:
Quote:

Cannashroom said:
MJNA



Just a heads up MJNA has a boiler room and several promo newsletters behind it.



Does this mean it's being unnaturally hyped?

Im' not hip with the lingo


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