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Offlinescatmanrav
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #17087703 - 10/23/12 06:46 PM (11 years, 3 months ago)

Well I wish I  was a bit more bearish a few days ago. My vz, psx, aa and t did not bode well today. I have some puts on rost doing well and a strangle on swhc that I think will work soon. Wft stock is down and still haven't had a chance to sell a call against, instead I opened a bull put spread 11/12 strikes for .48 assuming it will go back to its sideways trend. xme, xco and btu were down today but up overall in my portfolio. I'll be backing of the long bias on my positions on the next sign of weakness. I'm hoping that won't be tomorrow, but prob very soon.


--------------------
"life is like a drop of rain getting closer and closer to falling into a lake, and then when you hit the lake there is no more rain drop, only the lake."

Growing with bags, start to finish (including my new grain and substrate prep)
Anyone looking to start bulk tubs/mono tubs/shotgun hybrids? Good tubs to use..
How I do grain (old still good tips)
Turn your closet into a fruiting chamber
Casing layer colonization and overlay


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Offlinescatmanrav
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #17089283 - 10/23/12 10:22 PM (11 years, 3 months ago)

Well I wish I  was a bit more bearish a few days ago. My vz, psx, aa and wmt did not bode well today. I have some puts on rost doing well and a strangle on swhc that I think will work soon. Wft stock is down and still haven't had a chance to sell a call against, instead I opened a bull put spread 11/12 strikes for .48 assuming it will go back to its sideways trend. xme, xco and btu were down today but up overall in my portfolio. I'll be backing of the long bias on my positions on the next sign of weakness. I'm hoping that won't be tomorrow, but prob very soon.


--------------------
"life is like a drop of rain getting closer and closer to falling into a lake, and then when you hit the lake there is no more rain drop, only the lake."

Growing with bags, start to finish (including my new grain and substrate prep)
Anyone looking to start bulk tubs/mono tubs/shotgun hybrids? Good tubs to use..
How I do grain (old still good tips)
Turn your closet into a fruiting chamber
Casing layer colonization and overlay


Edited by scatmanrav (10/26/12 10:35 PM)


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Invisibleextreme
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: scatmanrav]
    #17089917 - 10/24/12 12:32 AM (11 years, 3 months ago)

:hi:

just posting because investing has always interested me a bit.  i have a tendency to understand a lot of it fairly easily and i've always entertained the thought of holding a few shares the remainder of my life.  it doesn't do much to touch my passionate side... still wanna go for a career i really can't stop thinking about (if possible).  i know i can always do some investing on the side tho.. more a matter of how much i wanna do it.  putting a "maybe" next to this is good for my health :smile:


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: scatmanrav]
    #17090890 - 10/24/12 08:02 AM (11 years, 3 months ago)

Added some more bearish exposure via SPY puts.  Partial stop above this morning's opening highs, and I will add even more on a break of yesterday's lows.  This market is just not acting right.

Edit: added more Nov $144 SPY puts.


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··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


Edited by geokills (10/24/12 01:26 PM)


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Offlinesofa_king_happy
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: extreme]
    #17093286 - 10/24/12 04:29 PM (11 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

extreme said:
:hi:

just posting because investing has always interested me a bit.  i have a tendency to understand a lot of it fairly easily and i've always entertained the thought of holding a few shares the remainder of my life.  it doesn't do much to touch my passionate side... still wanna go for a career i really can't stop thinking about (if possible).  i know i can always do some investing on the side tho.. more a matter of how much i wanna do it.  putting a "maybe" next to this is good for my health :smile:



Try it virtually first, yanno with monopoly money
www.simulator.investopedia.com/


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #17099980 - 10/25/12 03:30 PM (11 years, 3 months ago)

Some interesting action after hours.  AMZN reported a pretty major loss, way bigger than expected, the stock tanked down $25/share, but has since recovered and is only down a couple bucks from the closing print.  AAPL also reported earnings, revenue slightly higher than expected while profit was slightly less than expected and the outlook for the next quarter was quite a bit lower than expectations.  The stock initially fell about $24/share but is now trading practically where the stock closed in the regular session.

This action has caused S&P and Nasdaq futures to take a little tumble, with the S&P futures in particular falling below 1400 for a moment and still remaining under pressure, some 0.3% below the close of the regular session.  I have to say, I'm pretty surprised at the relatively muted response to the individual stocks of these major companies, but my mind is resting a little easier knowing that I have a significant put position on the SPY, which should continue to pay off tomorrow as the broad market remains under pressure.  Earnings have, by and large, shown poor revenue, which translates to less economic activity.  With the uncertainty of the election and the impending "fiscal cliff" in addition to headline risk from Europe, I don't see any good catalyst for a sustained upside move in the market anytime soon.  Thus, I would not be at all surprised to see the S&P fall back to its 200 day moving average at around 1380.  In fact, I would be surprised if that didn't happen here in the short term.  If the fiscal cliff and Euro situation coalesce into the perfect storm, I see near term support on the S&P at around 1350, if 1380 fails to hold.

Just streaming my thoughts...

With respect to AAPL, since it is a stock I have actively traded (and owned), I have a feeling that I will be adding to my position soon.  The material impact on the earnings this quarter seem to be strongly related to the iPhone 5 release and the supply constraints that prevented the company from meeting the exceptional demand for the product.  With the new iPad mini product cycle, in addition to some nice Mac upgrades as we move into the holiday season, I think this company is set to blow away the 4th quarter expectations, so long as it doesn't run into further supply problems.  On that note, I would want to buy deep in the money, long-dated call options or common stock, as opposed to the more aggressive strategy of near the money options that expire sooner.


FYI, I did get stopped out of my covered call position on CLF today after they missed earnings.  That hurt a bit. :frown:

My current positions going into tomorrow:
  • Long common stock: PSEC, AAPL, AGNC, NLY
  • Long call options: AAPL Jan 2013 $655, BAC Jan 2014 $7, XME Mar 2013 $47
  • Long put options: SPY Nov $144, TJX Apr 2013 $40
  • 62.5% cash


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··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


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Offlineqman
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #17100047 - 10/25/12 03:44 PM (11 years, 3 months ago)

Apple missed on profits and revenue, the estimate was revenue of $55 billion, and came in at $52 billion. Profit estimate was $15.43 per share, and came in at $11.75.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: qman]
    #17100095 - 10/25/12 03:54 PM (11 years, 3 months ago)

I think you are confusing the forward looking statements vs the realized numbers on today's report.  $54.9 billion is the forecast for the next (the first fiscal) quarter's revenue, whereas AAPL expects $52 billion, in line with my commentary above, that the future outlook came in a bit below expectations.

For the current/actual numbers, AAPL reported 4th fiscal quarter revenues of $35.966 billion vs expectations of $35.8 billion (the highest estimate on revenue for the current quarter was $38.04 billion, with the lowest being $34.28 billion, where AAPL itself previously guided for $34 billion).  The current quarter's net income came in at $8.67/share vs expectations of $8.75/share.


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··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


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Offlineqman
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #17100212 - 10/25/12 04:20 PM (11 years, 3 months ago)

Thanks for the clarification.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #17104313 - 10/26/12 10:05 AM (11 years, 3 months ago)

Not steppin' into AAPL today, stock continues to be very weak.  SPY puts will keep me warm over the weekend.  Not worth doing much of anything in this market til the election is over me thinks, possibly not even until the new year.


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··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


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Offlineqman
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #17104483 - 10/26/12 10:42 AM (11 years, 3 months ago)

Apple was too crowed of a trade, too many weak hands on the shares, overly loved, that is never a good sign over time.

I know traders love high profile stocks such as Apple, but for investors it can turn out disappointing.

I think Apple was the top holding for many hedge funds, another bad sign, as we know hedge funds are quick to bail ship on downside movements.

I am not a apple bear or bull, and never have owned the shares, and no plans in the future. Anytime a stock gets this popular, I stay away.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: qman]
    #17104615 - 10/26/12 11:03 AM (11 years, 3 months ago)

It's just wild, that a company with arguably the best execution out there, with high margin products that consistently sell out, an extraordinarily high growth rate for a company of its size (hell for a company of any size), and over a hundred billion dollars of cash on hand, can sell at a PE multiple below the average S&P multiple (selling at 11x next year's earnings!), and a Price to Earnings Growth rate of 0.6 - 0.7.  Almost any other company with these fundamentals would be trading with a PEG closer to 2.0 (christ, a PEG of 1.0 is considered a fairly valued company and AAPL can't even hit that while being run better and being more profitable than any other company out there).  Look at AMZN, they had a huge loss, don't give any information about their future strategy or products, and the stock is up almost 4% on the day where AAPL is down more than 2%.  What's wrong with this picture?

I do get the idea that AAPL may be over-owned, but why shouldn't it be?  It clearly has been able to do what no other company has been able to do in recent history... and is still executing with massive growth, huge profits, and new product cycles.  The lack of love the stock has received running into (and on the heels of) this earnings report is crazy is what it is.

Now I'm not stupid, so I'm not going to step in front of this freight train of a sell off by getting aggressive.  But I will begin slowly adding to a longer term position if it continues to fall.


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··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


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Offlinescatmanrav
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #17109188 - 10/26/12 10:40 PM (11 years, 3 months ago)

I understand the hype in Apple, its quite a company and therefore can be quite an opportunity to be in it, but I do tend to stay away. Especially right now until it establishes a real base and a real tread going up, I'm out of that.

I'm long VZ, AA, WMT and XCO and they continue to hold their bouncing off the bottom levels so I continue to hold my Jan contracts even though they are losing money, until they drop through this level of support they are all resting on today, I have to think least resistance is up.

I'm still holding my strangle on SWHC, its up a few bucks, just waiting for a big move. It looks to be in the downward direction right now, just recently crossed the 50 DMA.

Long stock in WFT, it is back down at the bottom of the sideways channel. Going to keep selling covered calls to lower cost basis on this until it breaks out of the channel and gets called away from me.

I opened up a long position today in the SDS as well (via BuPS 55/57 for $1.0) as I can see the SPY going down as well (and the SDS dows the inverse of the market) for a little bit, maybe down to the 200 day moving average/20 month moving average. I dont expect the downtrend to continue after this earnings hoopla is sorted out but we shall see what happens.

Sold my PSX today for a nice gain that I bought 2 days ago (calls as well, I'm addicted to options), also FB and ROST puts I bought 3 days ago I collected a nice little profit when I sold today. I still think PSX will go up and FB and ROST (especially ROST) will go down more, but I've learned as a trader to collect my profits, otherwise I'll watch them turn to a loss. Thats just me battling my evils.

My funnest win so far was NFLX today. I'm learning to watch 5 minute charts and trade the actual action of the day. Seeing it go up so strong all day (brought to my attention in the OMM forum) I got in calls at 2:38 and out at 3:58 for 80+% gain in 1:20 minutes. So thats annual return of um.. 525,600% I think LOL, if only that could be done every hour and 20 minutes for the whole year. Its probably going up more too, but holding profits over weekends makes me not sleep so well.

Well thats it for my trades so far. So far my only big mistakes were holding options for over a week while my account transfered and being unable to touch them. Lost almost 20% of my account in that time (which sucks cause I played with the virtual account in that time period and made 20% on the same account size). Since then I've had stocks act the same but I've changed my strategies to counter and make money on the way down while staying long.

Also watching expecting to go up: ANR, G, LVS (earnings soon, careful), XME, BTU, WYNN

Watching expecting to go down: MNST, ROST, TJX, CMG, HPQ, KO, AMZN, COST, DLTR, P, PCLN

Some arent ready to buy right here, right now, but when pulling back to respective support/resistance these are some I'm playing.

Everyone just make sure you check earnings that was another thing that got me was earnings while my account was being transferred. Anyone in CLF (sucks geo) found that too, I know a lot of people held that not remembering earnings were coming up. Write down your companies when they report and look at it everyday, I do now.


--------------------
"life is like a drop of rain getting closer and closer to falling into a lake, and then when you hit the lake there is no more rain drop, only the lake."

Growing with bags, start to finish (including my new grain and substrate prep)
Anyone looking to start bulk tubs/mono tubs/shotgun hybrids? Good tubs to use..
How I do grain (old still good tips)
Turn your closet into a fruiting chamber
Casing layer colonization and overlay


Edited by scatmanrav (10/26/12 10:47 PM)


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OfflineHotnuts
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: scatmanrav]
    #17132519 - 10/30/12 06:44 PM (11 years, 2 months ago)

Watch the 591 low and the 200 day moving average, just below. On the 591 low, the stock went into bullish 1:1. 1:1, more than likely, the most well performing technical pattern, there is. Even a test of the 200dma, keeps the stock in 1:1. Considering the stock carries so much market weight, i'm all over it. We'll get a good sense of direction, here shortly. It's just so uncertain, at the moment. My senses are telling me that, we head higher into Christmas. But, i'm not making any moves based on that! I'll know soon, though.




Edited by Hotnuts (10/30/12 06:47 PM)


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OfflineHotnuts
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Hotnuts]
    #17132650 - 10/30/12 07:02 PM (11 years, 2 months ago)

In case you're wondering what the hell i'm talking about- http://tradingarsenal.com/121-pattern/360-121-pattern-definition.html


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InvisibleAhab McBathsalts
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Hotnuts]
    #17133474 - 10/30/12 09:18 PM (11 years, 2 months ago)

Any predictions for tomorrow's opening?

After 2 days of being closed, a couple of billion in insurance losses, mediocre earnings, and a rapidly approaching election. I'm thinking this could be a "storm" of triggers that sees the S&P down 6% before the election.


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"Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
    #17141047 - 11/01/12 08:20 AM (11 years, 2 months ago)

It would've been unusual to see a big move in the wake of Sandy, because the markets were closed for four days straight, it gave traders a lot of time to evaluate the situation without acting on knee-jerk emotion.  The fact that Europe was still open and traded in an orderly fashion was a tell that the US markets probably wouldn't get hit too hard.  Of course, easy to say in hindsight.

I added some XME Dec $45 calls this morning, as well as some PAAS and RIMM common stock.  I sold an AAPL Jan 2013 $600 call I picked up yesterday for a very small gain, when the stock traded weakly into the strong market opening this morning, that divergence didn't leave me any warm fuzzy feelings, although the stock does appear to be tracking higher now, about an hour into the day.  On a move back above $600, I'll probably buy back the call and just set a stop below today's intraday low and stop trying to micromanage the position... 'cause it seems every time I try doing so, I keep fucking myself over.


Edit: Both RIMM and PAAS are moving faster than I had thought they would.  Daily charts are showing the first stage of volatility expansions to the upside.  XME is also bouncing through its 200 day moving averages and above the prior week's consolidation range.  XME is responding favorably to positive reports out of China, and since China is one of the fastest growers and largest consumers of construction related metals and materials, it makes sense that this news would be a fundamental positive for XME.  Also, I am back in my Jan '13 AAPL $600 call... settin' it and forgettin' it.  As we cross through upside alerts, I will periodically raise my sell stop.


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··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


Edited by geokills (11/01/12 09:01 AM)


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OfflineThe_Aviator
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #17145578 - 11/01/12 10:14 PM (11 years, 2 months ago)

Greetings, shroomery investors. I am new to investing and I just sold 13 shares of vfinx that was gifted to me a long time ago. I opened a zecco account and I'm preparing to begin some real trading. I only have $500 to invest and I really want to make this count. I have mostly been following penny stocks because I think there are some fair opportunities though I am also aware of the great risks. So I come searching for advice. Here are some stocks I have been following:

MJNA - the election can mean a lot for this one but the important thing, I think, is that their market can only grow from here. I'm just afraid that people are currently trying to pump and dump this one. Just recently the share price has tripled so I'm torn on whether or not to buy it.

XDSL - low, low price on this one. And what they are doing really resonates with me as a materials engineer in training. They have some contracts with the US gov't and companies like Porsche. And some of their technology that they demo'd has been very cutting-edge. I think they have a chance to break through at some point soon.

CBIS - they have no products now so I think it isn't a good time to buy. But they show promise for the same reasons as MJNA so they're on my watch-list.

So I guess I'm mostly trying to decide if I want to buy MJNA or XDSL or both. XDSL seems like a pretty safe bet right now considering how well the company seems to be doing. MJNA is doing well too but I'm afraid the stock is overpriced. Any advice about anything from anyone would be greatly appreciated.


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Sartre on conciousness: "a being such that in its being, its being is in question in so far as this being implies a being other than itself."
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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #17146935 - 11/02/12 08:16 AM (11 years, 2 months ago)

Closed half my position in RIMM for a healthy profit, raised stop on remaining half.  Closed all of my position in PAAS for a wash, can always buy it back later.  Raised stops on the XME Dec $45 calls.  Market gapped higher this morning on an improved jobs number, but hasn't done anything but sell off since then.  Interestingly, the gap open tagged the S&P's 20 and 50 day moving average before reversing lower.  The election is still a huge wildcard, and I see no reason to trade heavily in front of it.

PSEC announced a secondary offering, this is a high yielding issue (10%+ annual yield), and I used the weakness today to add to my position.

To The_Aviator, penny stocks are a crap shoot.  They do not trade on the major exchanges and are therefore unregulated securities of unprofitable companies that tend to have enormous amounts of debt, little if any sales revenue and no known guidance.  In other words, a complete gamble.


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··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


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OfflineCannashroom
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #17160549 - 11/04/12 04:19 PM (11 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

geokills said:
Closed half my position in RIMM for a healthy profit, raised stop on remaining half.  Closed all of my position in PAAS for a wash, can always buy it back later.  Raised stops on the XME Dec $45 calls.  Market gapped higher this morning on an improved jobs number, but hasn't done anything but sell off since then.  Interestingly, the gap open tagged the S&P's 20 and 50 day moving average before reversing lower.  The election is still a huge wildcard, and I see no reason to trade heavily in front of it.

PSEC announced a secondary offering, this is a high yielding issue (10%+ annual yield), and I used the weakness today to add to my position.

To The_Aviator, penny stocks are a crap shoot.  They do not trade on the major exchanges and are therefore unregulated securities of unprofitable companies that tend to have enormous amounts of debt, little if any sales revenue and no known guidance.  In other words, a complete gamble.




Well maybe you say so, but the small cap sector will bring greater rewards than the big boards, with larger risk, of course.  Small caps have larger potential for growth, but they are ridden with scams.  That is not to say the big boards don't have their scam PnD stocks too *cough* FB *cough*.

As for "unprofitable companies that tend to have enormous amounts of debt, little if any sales revenue and no known guidance"

Maybe you should really check out MJNA.

MJNA has been posting killer earnings.  I think it had 4 million in revenue last quarter and close to 2 million profits and 4 million cash on hand.

With Washington about to legalize this is going to explode.

I have been buying shares from 5c and am currently up 60% on my MJNA holdings over the past month.

CBIS may run on election momo, but it is a long term investment.

Cannabis boom is about to begin, don't miss out.

CRLRF is a great company which trades on the OTCBB and as CL on TSXV.

I predict a 5x increase in CRLRF over the next year.  I'll be posting much more about it the future.


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"A human being is part of the whole, called by us 'Universe'; a part limited in time and space. He experiences himself, his thoughts and feelings as something separated from the rest -- a kind of optical delusion of his consciousness.

This delusion is a kind of prison for us, restricting us to our personal desires and affection for a few persons nearest us.

Our task must be to free ourselves from this prison by widening our circle of compassion to embrace all living creatures and the whole nature in its beauty.

Nobody is able to achieve this completely but striving for such achievement is, in itself, a part of the liberation and a foundation for inner security."

Albert Einstein


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