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Bambi
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: sofa_king_happy]
#17036385 - 10/15/12 04:24 PM (11 years, 3 months ago) |
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I've got to say, I'm not in the least bit thrilled that I own two mREITs been involved with ARR since my first day trading, ~15 months ago, and then got into AGNC at 33.34, what I thought was a steal, in august. Since august they were my most consistent and best performers... and now they have crushed me.
Geo, what do you think is gonna become of mREITs ?
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ben_dover0802
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Bambi]
#17040040 - 10/16/12 04:17 AM (11 years, 3 months ago) |
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Obviously not Geo but if there isn't some news I dont like about according to the chart it looks like a decent time to add to that AGNC, especially with that candlestick large tail made today. I think it will start recovering plus that dividend provides a nice cushion from losing much money.
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Bambi
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ben_dover0802]
#17040561 - 10/16/12 08:05 AM (11 years, 3 months ago) |
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The only thing that scares me about adding to AGNC is that after falling for over a week, where and why would it stop falling? Okay, the RSI is approaching 0. However the ~$29.50 level reached yesterday looks like the largest support left. AGNC has already broken below the 200ma. I am worried that there is some news about mREITs that just hasnt come to surface yet. But if little has changed, then AGNC sure feels like a steal. I can't say I wouldn't consider buying at the first sign of stabilization were i not already involved.
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ben_dover0802
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Bambi]
#17040611 - 10/16/12 08:28 AM (11 years, 3 months ago) |
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Well its impossible to say for sure but if you look at the chart with candlesticks you see that the stock opened, traded down a lot, then recovered near the high of the day on heavy volume. Technically, this is a sign that a reversal may be coming as buyers came in when the stock was at a discount. The path of least resistance now is up rather than down.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Bambi]
#17041293 - 10/16/12 11:11 AM (11 years, 3 months ago) |
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Quote:
Bambi said: The only thing that scares me about adding to AGNC is that after falling for over a week, where and why would it stop falling?
It will stop falling because the yield has an inverse relationship to price. As price declines, yield increases. Ultimately, the yield will be high enough to attract buyers and stabilize price. The concern is that these mortgage REITS are going to see their spread (the money they make) contracting, which could result in a dividend cut if they are unable to use enough leverage to maintain a spread large enough to support their dividend. People are selling in anticipation of that possible outcome, and if the dividend is cut severely enough, there could be additional selling. So while there is a risk, I don't think the dividend will be cut so dramatically as to kill the stocks, therefore, I am happy to hold, and actually added to NLY and AGNC yesterday. If we saw a big selloff on news of a dividend cut, I would probably use that as another opportunity to add.
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sofa_king_happy
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#17041494 - 10/16/12 11:53 AM (11 years, 3 months ago) |
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Nintendo(NTDOY) anyone? New console coming out this year. Already sold out preoders, ebay preorders over $1,000. Gonna be chaos like every couple years. Trampling people to get one and camping out in front of retail stores.
Two days and one month until launch. Expect news to kick off the 30-day countdown, and more news, publicity, and hype as we get closer and closer. Not to mention the competition won't be around until next year! -Happy trading
Edited by sofa_king_happy (10/16/12 11:54 AM)
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scatmanrav
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: sofa_king_happy]
#17041923 - 10/16/12 01:12 PM (11 years, 3 months ago) |
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Yep the news geokills mentioned came about a week ago and will hurt any dividend paying stocks.
EDIT: See following link for some info http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-16/investors-abandon-home-loan-reits-under-fed-assault-mortgages.html
What they'll do is anyone guess, but right now the market is just anticipating bad. Assuming dividends aren't cut, that dividend will get more and more attractive. I'd probably look to buy.
I find no ntdoy ticker.
Edited by scatmanrav (10/16/12 04:18 PM)
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scatmanrav
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion *DELETED* [Re: sofa_king_happy]
#17041942 - 10/16/12 01:17 PM (11 years, 3 months ago) |
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Post deleted by scatmanravReason for deletion: Double Post
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sofa_king_happy
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: scatmanrav]
#17042367 - 10/16/12 02:34 PM (11 years, 3 months ago) |
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Quote:
scatmanrav said: I find no ntdoy ticker.
PINK:NTDOY http://www.google.com/finance?cid=685139
on on the japanese market TYO:7974 http://www.google.com/finance?q=TYO%3A7974&ei=lcR9UNjWH-S30QGT3gE
52-week high isn't far away either.
Edited by sofa_king_happy (10/16/12 02:36 PM)
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scatmanrav
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: sofa_king_happy]
#17042554 - 10/16/12 03:01 PM (11 years, 3 months ago) |
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Ah. PINK sheet stocks dont have to follow any rules or report anything (accurately). I find a hard time investing, or gambling, on such things.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#17053175 - 10/18/12 07:44 AM (11 years, 3 months ago) |
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Quote:
geokills said: Yeah, I was watching that dump on RIG today too, lower high and lower low vs yesterday. However, I decided not to go short, because the OIH and XOP are close to support, and RIG itself is trapped in a semi-semetrical triangle pattern, that I'm thinking will result in a little more sideways consolidation before we see resolution. Based on news out of Brazil that lets them start rig'n again where they were previously banned, in conjunction with continued pending currency weakness, I think RIG might actually be setting up for a more lasting breakout above its 200 day moving average... but only if the aggregate market cooperates and doesn't get spooked by the global weakening and EU crisis stories. Really, could go either way, hence the alerts I have set:


RIG appears to be breaking out of its symmetrical triangle to the upside. Volume is still a little low, but these triangle patterns, when they break, tend to be pretty reliable (although a re-test of the top of the pattern at ~$47 would not be unusual). A strong close above $50 could indicate the beginnings of a more sustainable long term move higher, based on the weekly chart.
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scatmanrav
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#17053657 - 10/18/12 09:56 AM (11 years, 3 months ago) |
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Looks good. Earnings coming up on the 29th so anyone looking at it should keep that in mind. I'd be in on a pullback to test the 200 and 50 DMA (accounts still frozen right now). All those moving averages are underneath now though.
Do you find triangle patterns tend to head up as they come out, or is it like a volitility squeeze, could go either way?
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: scatmanrav]
#17054033 - 10/18/12 11:18 AM (11 years, 3 months ago) |
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Either way, for sure. In RIG's case, it is the exceptionally long period of consolidation with lows that have generally held around $40 ever since the 2008 crash, alongside the aforementioned fundamental issue of drilling rights in Brazil, in conjunction with the technical support on the sector charts (XOP and OIH), that led me to believe RIG would probably break to the upside.
Edit: There have been some huge volume sell blocks going off at around 10:40am pacific time, which could potentially put in a pretty gnarly "topping tail" candlestick pattern on RIG.
Interestingly, GOOG mistakenly sent out their earnings before the market close (at around 9:30am pacific), and the stock took a $68/share beating before being halted. Not surprising given that they missed on top and bottom line numbers, and their cost-per-click metrics have deteriorated, after the stock ran up some 30% over the past handful of months.
Some strange action in the market today... I'm gonna sit the rest of this out.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#17078395 - 10/22/12 11:14 AM (11 years, 3 months ago) |
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Shorted CVX common stock this morning when it did nothing but sell off from the open.
Also bought a handful of November $144 puts on the SPY, since the index has opened and dragged down below its 50 day moving average as well as making a definitive break below Friday's intraday low.
On the long side, I took a small starter position in CLF, with its better than 5% yield and constructive chart pattern, and sold a covered $45.50 weekly call to lower my cost basis. If I get called away on Friday, no big deal, just bought dinner. And if I don't get called away because the stock pulls back, I would be adding to this position on a move back to $40.
Maintaining overweight exposure to XME via Nov $44 calls and March $47 calls. I will be stopped out of the Nov $44 calls for a 70% gain if the ETF falls below $45.96 (it's getting close). But I would keep the March 47's and look to add back a handful of nearer term lower strike calls if XME finds its way back to $44-$45.
I am also maintaining some exposure to AAPL ahead of their new product announcement scheduled for tomorrow (suspected iPad mini) as well as its earnings later this week.
Edit: Stopped out of the XME Nov $44's. CVX and SPY shorts are kickin' butt, and my $40 puts on TJX are finally starting to work now that the stock is getting closer to the strike.
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sofa_king_happy
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#17079304 - 10/22/12 02:06 PM (11 years, 3 months ago) |
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A123 Systems Inc (AONE:NASDAQ) Book value of net assets=107m as of 6/30/12 current market cap=66.3m
They're recently declared bankruptcy and were approved to sell their assets. One thing that stands out is the Plant, Property, and Equipment netting 139m. Typically P,P,&E's book values are undervalued due to depreciation rules.
got in and out today with a 8% gain. Looking to get in again if it dips again. 
EDIT: still in Nintendo, ill be holding it for a couple weeks. (Down around 4% so far.)
Edited by sofa_king_happy (10/22/12 02:12 PM)
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ben_dover0802
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: sofa_king_happy]
#17079768 - 10/22/12 03:17 PM (11 years, 3 months ago) |
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Darn I wish I got into that coal stock BTU I keep yapping about! It really does look like the long term downtrend is now turning around. I missed out on about 30% in BTU's case, much more in other coal stocks such as JRCC, but I still see opportunity in this sector. However, I want to buy after a pullback.
I'm continuing to make a little money with me BBY short, it has been working out. I also shorted KBH for a very short term pullback. I think it's going higher after it goes a little bit lower. Apple finally gave me back some money that it lost last week. You were right Scat about Pacsun (PSUN) being the time to sell, I sold that sucka the day after you said something after it was down on an up day. It pretty much took a nose dive after. Here is all I'm involved with - sadly no coal stocks.
Positions: Short: BBY - Best Buy KBH -KB Homes
Long: AAPL - Apple GS - Goldman Sachs AKS - AK steel CX - Cemex DHI - DR Horton Homes
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ben_dover0802]
#17080176 - 10/22/12 04:24 PM (11 years, 3 months ago) |
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I've likewise watched the BTU train leave the station before I could made up my mind about it.
Unusually strong close to the market today. Got stopped out of my CVX short for a small profit. Wish I didn't get stopped out of those XME Nov $44 calls darn stock triggered my sell stop by only a few pennies before rallying into the close. Still got the Mar $47's though, that's a long termer and something I'm not likely to sell unless we see a break below $44 (home of the 50 day moving average and uptrending support line). If XME is above $47 after the first 15 minutes of trading tomorrow, I will buy back some higher strike November calls to play the volatility expansion and breakout above the 200 day moving average.
AAPL, I really wanted to buy more today, but was frozen by the memory of those bull put spreads that I closed out for significant loss early last week (and the higher strike BPS' the prior week). I got emotionally invested and my conviction trumped my discipline. Damn, it was an expensive lesson, but I guess I just had to pay the price to have learned it! The real reason I didn't add to AAPL was because I already control 110 shares of the stock via a Jan 2013 call and 10 shares of common stock. Earnings are still a wildcard, we just don't know how the market will react since the initial sales of iPhone5 that will hit the report since expectations are quite varied. Though I probably should've taken a little more exposure today in order to play off the momentum of the product announcement tomorrow, I don't want to get caught with my pants down on a potential earnings miss. Still might day trade it tomorrow, tagging $640 is pretty much a given.
Really surprised with the strong close. On an unrelated note, I think CMG is going to $200.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#17084109 - 10/23/12 08:52 AM (11 years, 3 months ago) |
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Rats, CVX down another 3% today, too bad I got stopped out of my short at yesterday's close. Seems that something similar may have happened to a handful of shorts, considering the pervasive weakness across the board today, and the fact that it hasn't shown any meaningful signs of abatement even now that we're well over an hour into the day. Happy I took those profits on my XME Nov $44 calls, which I will look to re-enter (though possibly adding at a different strike or for the Dec expiration) at the first sign of meaningful strength near/above $44.
My SPY Nov $144 puts are really pullin' their weight today, keeping me more or less flat on a down 1.75% morning! AAPL does their new product announcement in an hour, it will be interesting to see if that can stir up some excitement on an otherwise dreary day. This is a pretty significant break below the S&P's 50 day moving average, and as such, I am planning to let my SPY Nov $144 puts ride.
Silver is coming into an interesting area at around $30/oz, I would expect this area to produce some buying. Note the following chart is of SLV, for which I would peg support around $29, as it trades ~$1 < silver spot.
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ben_dover0802
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#17084264 - 10/23/12 09:36 AM (11 years, 3 months ago) |
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Wow what a crap day, kind of puts a overall bearish tone to the market as a whole for the rest of the month. I see you feel the same way. Anywho, I covered my BBY short and took up a couple longs in an uptrend at support, and one short at the top of its channel. Even though its very possible we see more downside from here, in fact I am even predicting it, I will set stops on the longs to minimize risk because I know for sure that I just dont know!
I added to my long position in CX and opened one in XCO. Opened a short for ANR, a coal stock that already ran up about 50% in the past month, and again covered my BBY short for a pretty nice gain after the past couple weeks.
Holding Apple now, waiting for what the market thinks of the news - but to be honest I plan on holding it through earnings. Its already had a pretty big sell off and I could see good earnings provide a nice boost to the price. Its a gamble, I know, but one that as of now, I am going to take.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ben_dover0802]
#17084542 - 10/23/12 10:29 AM (11 years, 3 months ago) |
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I will be holding my AAPL through earnings as well. Not really interested in buying anything today, my SPY puts have me positioned mostly flat in aggregate, and that's just where I want to be when the market does something like this...
Interestingly, RIG has fallen back to the top of its symmetrical triangle and is so far showing signs of a bounce. It's a little early to have a lot of conviction, but figured I'd make note of it.
I hate to say it, but I'd really like to see a huge wash out into the end of the year so I can steal some high yielding bargains and some long term call options on my favorite high growth companies. With the way the market has been acting these past several weeks, it seems like we're setting up for an easy move to 1350 on the S&P.
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